2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on

[Guest Lobo]

Did a few hours of yardwork earlier today and it got damn hot again despite being gorgeous for the last several days.  Real feel temp says 93 degrees and I believe it.  Tomorrow mid-afternoon supposed to feel like 100 degrees.  But next week looks fucking glorious.  Time to play White Austinite and get our my technical patagonia jackets.  

At least we've had mild weather and decent rainfall in 2020 (no jinx) because that would have just been one more straw to break the camel's back.  I am thankful. 

[Chet Steadman 940]

Oops.  Feels incredible outside but I forgot my throat and eyes will now be on fire for the next four months.

This wind is not ideal.

[XYZ 2,154]

This “cold” front is fucking useless.

[zork 629]

 

[Pato del Muerto 53,548]

WTGDF is with this weekend around here?  About 2 months early for these numbers  

 

[XYZ 2,154]

Meanwhile here my A/C still needs to run. At night.

[rage-a-holic 4,740]

Flying to Denver/Loveland Friday afternoon. It'll be 87 in Austin and 35 in Loveland.

Fuck this shit.

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,985]

 

4-8” tomorrow

 

Lows of 4 on Monday

[hornian 5,296]

My weather app says a week from Tuesday high of 49 low of 36 for Austin, and a week from today high of 41. 
 

Is it really happening?

[Hate 20,250]

Don’t get too excited yet. It’s the same setup as a few weeks ago when the low was too far west to give us the direct shot of cold air. The same thing still could happen to this one. I wouldn’t have any confidence in it until Saturday or maybe even Sunday.

[XYZ 2,154]

9 minutes ago, hornian said:

My weather app says a week from Tuesday high of 49 low of 36 for Austin, and a week from today high of 41. 
 

Is it really happening?

Cold front will die in Lampasas. High 91 low 70.

[Guest Lobo]

Saturday looks like it's gonna be lovely.  KVUE says Sunday may hit 90.  That second cold front early next week looks serious though.  

This humidity has been delightful.  Fucking mosquitoes everywhere. Today's gonna hit up 90s with the heat index.  

[bschoolprof 6,347]

The weather folks always overestimate how cold it's gonna get down here. It's weather porn for them.  Don't be fooled.  

[Guest Lobo]

I think the Weather Channel just enjoys watching us raid HEB for supplies the day before these supposed "Freezes" that end up being in the upper 40's.  

I used to crack up when Jeff Ward would do those pre-apocalypse broadcasts the afternoon before an overnight freeze in Austin.  With the sound effects and Ed's "man on the scene" bits. 

Ah, 'twas a simpler time.  Now we're actually having runs on HEB but that's because of the pandemic.  Speaking of HEB and the runs, had the chipotle pork last night from their grab-n-go aisle.  Not great, Bob!  

[swraith 348]

This alternative weather vendor is not as aggressive with the cold front forecast.

[phdhorn 6,225]

Thought you'd get a kick out of this, NWS blab today:
 

Quote

Global models agree on the frontal
passage across South Central Texas but when it comes to how cold the
airmass will be then there is a huge disagreement. For example,
Monday`s highs for Austin is 64 degrees based on GFS but 88 degrees
for the ECMWF. What about on Tuesday? Any better? So here we go,
Tuesday`s highs for Austin is 46 degrees based on GFS and 79 degrees
for the ECMWF. What about the NBM solution? So, let`s look at
Monday`s highs for Austin: 89 degrees based on the NBM solution.
Having said that, we took a middle of the road approach for this
forecast package and hope for the models to become better aligned in
future runs as far as temperatures go.

The one thing that IS changing is the Jet. The storm track has been far, far north of us, across Montana, Wyoming, N. Great Lakes, etc.  This is why October's been bone dry.  Also, cold fronts bring MUCH colder weather when actually accompanied by a storm.  The ones we've been getting are way, way far away from active weather, dry spokes that reach down through the U.S. but aren't very strong.  The storm track is going to allow more wet weather (not saying anyone will need a boat!) and fronts can tend to be much sharper.  This really hasn't "moderated", it's been who knows?  ECMWF has been the better front forecaster (as it's the better weather model in all) and NBM has been pretty good at predicting fronts.  Both right now say yawn.  But, 1) it's early, there is NO clear trend yet, 2) even if it's not going to be 45° in Austin Tuesday (I doubt it) I think it'll be in the low 60's, not this 80-88(!!!) degree horseshit. Anyway after that we're probably set up in a more fall pattern, with cooler/colder fronts possible (although the 2-week is generally looking pretty warm, as is this winter overall).  

Give it 2 days, then it'll be clear.  Until then it's a waste of time to even begin to speculate.  So I'll waste time and speculate.  Either side of the street of about 60°-65° Tuesday.  Then rapid warm up back into the mid-80's.

P.S. I'm thinking that once cooler weather gets going to do a separate winter thread for Texas.  It's nice to hear that it's cold/snows a lot in Iowa or Minnesota or Colorado in Jan or Feb but it's supposed to. Those guys can converse away, I'm usually asleep by the 2nd line of "it's cold in the Northen U.S. today!"  Any opinions on this let me know.

[Pato del Muerto 53,548]

By that logic there doesn’t need to be a thread about how hot it is in Texas in summer. 
 

edit: and so as to not add an additional post, here’s a pic of my backyard this morning. I assume this is the front that you are debating for a cool down in Texas in a couple days.  There will be no shoveling for this event, it will all be gone by Tuesday. 

Edited October 22, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[freyguy 4,368]

Eat shit and die mosquitoes. 

[MoJames 8,258]

Might get something this weekend in SW Colorado.

[Hate 20,250]

Might get something this weekend in SW Colorado.

Ronas?? Pussy? The herp?

[MoJames 8,258]

7 minutes ago, Hate said:

Ronas?? Pussy? The herp?

Well your mom is in town, so who knows.

[Hate 20,250]

Tell her hello for me and load her up with some edibles before she comes back.

[MoJames 8,258]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

Tell her hello for me and load her up with some edibles before she comes back.

[ballrific 220]

Still muggy shit in atx. I can haz winter?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,985]

By that logic there doesn’t need to be a thread about how hot it is in Texas in summer. 
 
edit: and so as to not add an additional post, here’s a pic of my backyard this morning. I assume this is the front that you are debating for a cool down in Texas in a couple days.  There will be no shoveling for this event, it will all be gone by Tuesday. 

Fuck that. Good feeling to know it’ll be gone in a few days tho.

[Wally Pryor 5,410]

Nothing like that first wisp of north breeze to signal a front's arrived.   Don't give a damn if it's a weakling.    Still nice, especially given the shit this week.

[hornian 5,296]

I didn’t realize we were getting front today. Fired up the fire pit and made s’mores with the kids. Very welcome. 

[UT_OB1 2,266]

Actually hit 52 at my house here in Seabrook. The forecast said we weren’t going to break below 60. Windows are all open and it is glorious. About to take the kids to a quick trip to the park before the game. 

[Guest]

On 10/20/2020 at 11:21 PM, rage-a-holic said:

Flying to Denver/Loveland Friday afternoon. It'll be 87 in Austin and 35 in Loveland.

Fuck this shit.

 

The state of Colorado is on fire to keep you warm...

[rage-a-holic 4,740]

1 hour ago, slorch said:

The state of Colorado is on fire to keep you warm...

 the fucking fires delayed my trip a week

[Guest]

Yeah they are bad.  I have family in Denver metro, so before someone blasts me for the comment, just trying to keep it light...

We're supposed to get down into the teens on Monday in the Panhandle.  Should be fun...

[phdhorn 6,225]

(cross post in heat thread)

So this next front, after a few days of coin flipping and 8-ball consulting, looks indeed like it's gonna hold its weight.  Temps now are certainly looking like mid-50s for most.  Overruning by rain (very light, don't get your hopes up) for 2-3 days, this is gonna feel like a true November few days.  Rain will be light and spotty, not much over 1/2" for most of us for 2 days.  Monday will start mildly enough, maybe even getting to 80° (which ain't bad anyway) before the front moves in late afternoon.

Due to the cloud cover, the nights aren't going to get near freezing around us (they might in the western Hill Country) but it's gonna be chilly and fireplace type weather, most of us in mid or low 40's.  Clearing after Wed. into 2-3 really nice, sunny days with temps in the high 60's-mid 70's.

This is fall, beyotches.

[hornian 5,296]

7 hours ago, phdhorn said:

(cross post in heat thread)

So this next front, after a few days of coin flipping and 8-ball consulting, looks indeed like it's gonna hold its weight.  Temps now are certainly looking like mid-50s for most.  Overruning by rain (very light, don't get your hopes up) for 2-3 days, this is gonna feel like a true November few days.  Rain will be light and spotty, not much over 1/2" for most of us for 2 days.  Monday will start mildly enough, maybe even getting to 80° (which ain't bad anyway) before the front moves in late afternoon.

Due to the cloud cover, the nights aren't going to get near freezing around us (they might in the western Hill Country) but it's gonna be chilly and fireplace type weather, most of us in mid or low 40's.  Clearing after Wed. into 2-3 really nice, sunny days with temps in the high 60's-mid 70's.

This is fall, beyotches.

So you’re saying there’s a chance!

[Biff Tannen 46,177]

It's cold as shit outside.  Fire on.

[Guest]

20 degrees.  about 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice fucking everywhere.

Tuesday: high of like 18.  More precip possible, albeit snow.

Oh and 3rd event predicted for Wednesday.   Never seen a weather system move through like this.  Taun-tauns are at the ready...

 

[Guest Lobo]

If your feces are this cold, you should see a proctologist.  May I recommend, Dr. Assman.  

Once again, Austin says "fuck you to Autumn", goes from 95 to light freeze in one week.  

But we had a mild September, so gotta give thanks.  Still, wouldn't hurt for the third wettest month of the year (October) to be half as wet as South Austin's Mom.  

My grass is as dry as her taint after a Meredith Baxter Birney's scorned ex-wife marathon on Lifetime.

[Sandman 3,435]

Got hit with freezing rain in central OK. Work got shut down at 2 PM today. On the drive home, a car spun out on the interstate and almost hit me and another car. Then I come home to see my 5 big trees coated in ice and limbs broken off. Limbs are snapping all over my nieghborhood, fucking hell. The leaves haven't fallen off yet, so it's just that much worse. Fuck this shit. 

Edited October 26, 2020 by Sandman

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Sandman said:

Got hit with freezing rain in central OK. Work got shut down at 2 PM today. On the drive home, a car spun out on the interstate and almost hit me and another car. Then I come home to see my 5 big trees coated in ice and limbs broken off. Limbs are snapping all over my nieghborhood, fucking hell. The leaves haven't fallen off yet, so it's just that much worse. Fuck this shit. 

Hope nothing hits your house.  Glad you made it home safely!

[Bash Riprock 1,695]

[Updawg 2,387]

Meanwhile there is a hurricane in the gulf. Crazy

[Biff Tannen 46,177]

3 hours ago, Lobo said:

If your feces are this cold, you should see a proctologist.  May I recommend, Dr. Assman.  

Once again, Austin says "fuck you to Autumn", goes from 95 to light freeze in one week.  

But we had a mild September, so gotta give thanks.  Still, wouldn't hurt for the third wettest month of the year (October) to be half as wet as South Austin's Mom.  

My grass is as dry as her taint after a Meredith Baxter Birney's scorned ex-wife marathon on Lifetime.

Where are you seeing light freeze?  Lowest DarkSky has is 41 for me, thru next Monday. 

[El Diablo 4,232]

41 IS a light freeze, in Austin, TX. 

[Guest]

We had thunder ice all night.

It's 18 degrees, sleeting/ freezing rain/ thunder showers.

2020 ain't going out like a lamb...

Edited October 27, 2020 by slorch

[Al_4_ISU 12,645]

13 hours ago, slorch said:

20 degrees.  about 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice fucking everywhere.

Tuesday: high of like 18.  More precip possible, albeit snow.

Oh and 3rd event predicted for Wednesday.   Never seen a weather system move through like this.  Taun-tauns are at the ready...

 

Where the hell are you?  We got about 1.5" of snow on Sunday, and that's unseasonable in fucking northern Iowa.  This has to be downright historic for any part of Texas.

[Al_4_ISU 12,645]

13 hours ago, Sandman said:

Got hit with freezing rain in central OK. Work got shut down at 2 PM today. On the drive home, a car spun out on the interstate and almost hit me and another car. Then I come home to see my 5 big trees coated in ice and limbs broken off. Limbs are snapping all over my nieghborhood, fucking hell. The leaves haven't fallen off yet, so it's just that much worse. Fuck this shit. 

One nice thing about our location and winter weather is that we generally don't get as much ice as points south.  We've had some nasty ice storms, but since my cousin moved to Tulsa in '08, it seems like he deals with a lot more ice than I do.

We go straight from decent fall weather into straight up blizzards (and very cold temps) pretty quickly.  Generally shooting right through the ice storm temperature ranges on the way down.  When we do get ice, it tends to be in the spring.

Glad you guys are alright, but god damn, ice is the fucking worst.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Al_4_ISU

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,860]

9 hours ago, Updawg said:

Meanwhile there is a hurricane in the gulf. Crazy

I got a kick out of the ice cream truck driving around my neighborhood yesterday afternoon while the front was blowing rain and cold air.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Where the hell are you?  We got about 1.5" of snow on Sunday, and that's unseasonable in fucking northern Iowa.  This has to be downright historic for any part of Texas.

Amarillo.  Funny thing is, we also got about 2" of snow in September.  It was wet as hell and melted off quickly, but this shit is legit cold weather event.  Supposed to snow lightly all afternoon and then dump on us tomorrow.  Forecasts wildly differ from and inch or two on up to 10+ inches.

The 3 days in a row of temps into the teens is what's really tough.   Hoping our lectric and gas hold up.

As far as being historic, those aren't the lowest temps ever.  It's just a bit early in the season.  We do have winter in the Panhandle.  It's one thing I missed about not living here.

Edited October 27, 2020 by slorch

[Al_4_ISU 12,645]

4 minutes ago, slorch said:

Amarillo.  Funny thing is, we also got about 2" of snow in September.  It was wet as hell and melted off quickly, but this shit is legit cold weather event.  Supposed to snow lightly all afternoon and then dump on us tomorrow.  Forecasts wildly differ from and inch or two on up to 10+ inches.

The 3 days in a row of temps into the teens is what's really tough.   Hoping our lectric and gas hold up.

I guess I knew the Panhandle gets a legitimate winter, but that's nuts. Especially this early.

I don't think I've ever seen accumulated snow in September, and I live a few miles from the Iowa/Minnesota border.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Al_4_ISU

[Al_4_ISU 12,645]

I do actually like winter.  I just like it from about a week before Christmas through the end of January. 

Recently we've had an increase in "out of season" weather events.  It felt like when I was a kid (the 90's), snow came in earnest around mid December and started melting at the end of February, with a snow cover through that whole window.  Now, we see 3-4" snowfalls in October that melt in a day or two, rounds in November that melt, and spend Christmas Day mountain biking and sitting around a fire in 45 degree weather with no snow only to have a crippling blizzard around New Year's that has -25 degree temps, but two weeks later we get the January thaw where all the snow melts before a Polar Vortex hits the first week of February and we get a bunch of snow again.  March always goes back and forth between beautiful and horrific conditions, and then, sometime around mid April, when the snow's been gone for a month and things are turning green and coming back to life we get a foot of snow.  Fuckin' A.

Give me two months of consistent winter.  Not a 4-5 month window where you could literally see anything between 75 and -35.  I would sign up for a month of the high not topping 10 in exchange for no late or early snow storms.

[Bash Riprock 1,695]

More to come here in Lubbock around 1am.