2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on

[Kermit 3128]

Fuck it. I’m up, pouring a stiff one, pipes probably fucked, cold as shit. Goddamn this sucks.

[4th&Five 41461]

Our power went out at 2:19 and it’s still out. Wife and kids still asleep but it’s starting to get chilly. Fuck this shit. 

[Hate 20103]

Yeah, I went from a nice and toasty 70 to and chilly 64 in the 2 hours since the power went out.

[Nicole44 22027]

That was a three and a half hour rotating blackout. Fucking cold. Tons of snow. Looks like not going back to sleep. Yay! Fuck. 

[Post Oak 20187]

My 430 eta for the power to come back on was just pushed to 7.  Fuck

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

Morning, day shift:

Good news is we didn't hire Urban Meyer last night. 

[UTexasFight 9380]

4:32am woooooo. Power’s back!

 

4:40am ......  fuck

[Halohal 498]

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

2 hours ago, Halohal said:

 

 

Avery, arithmetic would like a word please. There is no “snow” exception to math. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

5 minutes ago, Halohal said:

Colder than a welldigger's ass

Colder than a witch's titty

(add your own)

[Telegraph_it 3354]

Says there is 30,000 mw generation forced off the system. Seems not good. 

 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

I'll say. 

 

[Wally Pryor 5244]

With the snow pack on the ground and the clear skies bet it pushes zero overnight.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Make sure you check your furnace exhaust vents. Can’t have those freezing shut and you die of carbon monoxide poisoning

[Wally Pryor 5244]

Forecast high of 16 today.  Coldest day in Austin history.

[washparkhorn 9935]

Alpine nights and days are magical. At dawn and dusk, you might see a taste of alpenglow.

Hook 'em.  Stay safe Texas.

https://www.adventuresnw.com/an-eye-for-alpenglow-the-photography-of-don-geyer/

Edited February 15, 2021 by washparkhorn

[washparkhorn 9935]

22 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Colder than a witch's titty

Bone ass cold. 

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

This sucks.  Kids are gonna want to play in the snow and I got to be on a work zoom at 8

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

How in the world can Texas run air conditioners 95% of the year but the second it drops to near 0 for 48 hours, you need to conserve energy and shut off power so homes can’t heat?

[BrickTop 474]

I’m on duty for Tomball Fire been without power for 2 hours and dispatch’s emergency generator is down looks like an arctic wasteland out here, I’m hearing it’s the majority of the city.

[swraith 336]

Crossed the 3 hour mark on our power outage. This is not good for my chances of making it through this without frozen pipes. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

Power has been out since 2am in NW hills. Cold as shit in the house 

[BrickTop 474]

City manager is on the line with centerpoint trying to find out if this is a blackout or what 2.5 hours now

[Tailgate 3018]

I just canceled all my zoom and conference calls. Not sure anyone wants to see me right now holding a bottle of Jack in my underwear.

 

[HenryJames 65890]

1 hour ago, Kermit said:

Fuck it. I’m up, pouring a stiff one, pipes probably fucked, cold as shit. Goddamn this sucks.

[washparkhorn 9935]

9 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

How in the world can Texas run air conditioners 95% of the year but the second it drops to near 0 for 48 hours, you need to conserve energy and shut off power so homes can’t heat?

It makes zero sense to my little brain.  All Electric Appliances, rather than gas furnaces and burners?  I don't know. Does Texas have residential gas generally? Rural/city split? ?

Edited February 15, 2021 by washparkhorn

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

6 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

How in the world can Texas run air conditioners 95% of the year but the second it drops to near 0 for 48 hours, you need to conserve energy and shut off power so homes can’t heat?

Without knowing anything about thermo dynamics or the efficiency of various ac or heaters: a 100 degree day cooling to 75 is a 25 degree difference.  A 20 degree day heating to 65 is a 45 degree difference.  So that's like twice the temperature difference.  

[mchookem 16224]

power out in 78757 since 2:30am. came back on briefly twice, for less than 5 mins each time. my pool is in trouble, isn't it...sigh.

[washparkhorn 9935]

TLDR: The Jet Stream messed up - again - and got carried away. 

Sorry Texas. ~Mother Nature

Edited February 15, 2021 by washparkhorn

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

1 minute ago, washparkhorn said:

It makes zero sense to my little brain.  All Electric Appliances, rather than gas furnaces and burners?  I don't know. Does Texas have residential gas generally? Rural/city split? ?

It really seems like new construction is moving more towards no gas.  One more thing($$) to have to run pipes and get inspected. Slightly more dangerous.   I was a little pissed because the previous owner of my house refinished the place and replaced the stove and water heater with electric and capped the gas for the dryer.  

[Hpara759 1777]

On 2/12/2021 at 4:02 AM, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Been awake since 2:30 due to the sound of our neighbors' tree limbs snapping. The live oaks in our front yard are holding up but I don't know if they'll make it unscathed if we get much more ice accumulation. At least PEC is on.
 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Hpara759
DP

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

25 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

How in the world can Texas run air conditioners 95% of the year but the second it drops to near 0 for 48 hours, you need to conserve energy and shut off power so homes can’t heat?

Because the power profile of a hot summer day is different than that of a cold winter night. 

Electric space heaters are extremely inefficient and draw a shit ton of power. Most people running them at night at probably still using more power than they normally do during the day with all the lights and televisions on. And some houses, even without space heaters, are still running electric forced air heaters, which are still more inefficient than cooling systems. 

Also, during hot summer days, you have wind and solar providing a lot of capacity in Texas. You have neither during a cold winter night because the sun isn't shining and the turbines can freeze up.

So you have extra demand and reduced supply. That adds up to shortages.

If these types of nights were more common they'd adjust the system to be able to cope with better, but these types of event are extremely rare so instead of spend the money for something that happens once in 40 years, they just say, "tough it out" and deal with it for the 24-48 hours it lasts and then they get back within the normal bounds they have prepared for. 

 

EDIT - quoted the wrong post for response, now fixed

Edited February 15, 2021 by crimsonlonghorn

[ZB'Tejas 593]

Just woke up to no power in 78702. Starting to get a bit nippy in the house and worrying about the pool


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Guest Lobo]

Morning shift checking in.  No rolling blackouts yet here in our little corner of South Austin but I'm sure it'll happen.  Doing our part, running at 64 degrees downstairs, 66 upstairs for the kids.  I'm hearing all kinds of mixed reviews for blackouts.  Some say it's 30 minutes, some say theirs are several hours.  It is kinda crazy since 100% of schools, probably 75% of offices, and 50% of retail won't be pulling very much power today except the barebones minimum.  

The snow does look beautiful.  Went outside and measured it on level limestone...almost right at 6" (that's what she said).  More than I thought we'd get.  Gonna be perfect in about 90 minutes for snowmen.  

I'm thinking about making a coffee or cocoa with whiskey.  

Anybody else been staying up last couple of nights/early mornings:  dripping faucets, rotating space heaters, maximizing HVAC units, checking the attic, checking exterior pipes & limbs, etc.  And then you feel like Mr. Torrence in "The Shining."  Somebody is telling me to caretake the home so the elements can't get a foothold.  Sooner of later, I end up at the bar in my house being told that I have always been here.  Shit's starting to freak me out.  

[Kermit 3128]

Rolling 45 minute blackouts my ass. It’s been over an hour and a half now and my cold ass has been counting every second. Good thing our propane company gave us warnings that we will soon run out as well. No electricity, no propane, plentiful whiskey. So far...

[Wally Pryor 5244]

NM

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Wally Pryor

[washparkhorn 9935]

3 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Because the power profile of a hot summer day is different than that of a cold winter night. 

Electric space heaters are extremely inefficient and draw a shit ton of power. Most people running them at night at probably still using more power than they normally do during the day with all the lights and televisions on. And some houses, even without space heaters, are still running electric forced air heaters, which are still more inefficient than cooling systems. 

Also, during hot summer days, you have wind and solar providing a lot of capacity in Texas. You have neither during a cold winter night because the sun isn't shining and the turbines can freeze up.

So you have extra demand and reduced supply. That adds up to shortages.

If these types of nights were more common they'd adjust the system to be able to cope with better, but these types of event are extremely rare so instead of spend the money for something that happens once in 40 years, they just say, "tough it out" and deal with it for the 24-48 hours it lasts and then they get back within the normal bounds they have prepared for. 

Why not concurrent gas service? Run the furnace on gas (or gas heated radiant heat)? Too much to retrofit? Gas burners and heat add a layer of safety and value. 

[Surly Bevo 24696]

Rolling blackout doesn’t seem the right term when on the 4th one since 1:45am and for about half the time since then. I’m kind of guessing 1/2 of the state that is eligible for this isnt getting blacked out at a time. This feels targeted for whatever reason.

[Dewey 3280]

Power is out and snow is on the ground here in Galveston.  My dog has no idea what snow is, completely freaked out. Have to think power won't be back on for a long time. 

[Hpara759 1777]

3 minutes ago, Dewey said:

snow is on the ground here in Galveston.  

wow

[4th&Five 41461]

We’ll be passing the 4 hour mark without power in 15 minutes. Kids still asleep. Fire keeping the living room warm at least. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Just now, washparkhorn said:

Why not concurrent gas service? Run the furnace on gas (or gas heated radiant heat)? Too much to retrofit? Gas burners and heat add a layer of safety and value. 

This kind of thing is so rare - the last time this happened was 40 years ago - the cost of planning for it, or retrofitting, is way too high relative to the risk. One night in 40 years. That's 1 in 14,600 compared to the A/C running maybe, 7,000 of those nights? I'm not an engineer, but this is a common problem... how much deviation do you plan for relative to your budget? We could make every house gas with a backup propane tank and a backup generator. but it would raise the cost of the house by another $50,000. Is that "worth" it for one night in 40 years? Most people would say "no" and those affected tonight will probably forget about it in a few weeks. And that ignores the added expense of buying all the propane and laying all of the gas lines, etc etc. Utilities do this kind of planning all the time.

Someone else mentioned as well that most madd built new construction homes are engineered to last through the 1-3 year warranty period and that's it. They're not going to put more money into a tract home than they have to. And most of the buyers are fine with that because they get granite counter tops and "wood" floors and that new home smell.

(Not making a judgment at all, just an economic observation about preferences)

The bottom line is that we could seriously prepare for this, but is it really worth the money or could that money be better spent relative to the rarity of the circumstances?

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Saturday I have a shoot and Sunday we have our first Little League practice. Life returns to normal quickly in Houston. 

 

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

23 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Because the power profile of a hot summer day is different than that of a cold winter night. 

Electric space heaters are extremely inefficient and draw a shit ton of power. Most people running them at night at probably still using more power than they normally do during the day with all the lights and televisions on. And some houses, even without space heaters, are still running electric forced air heaters, which are still more inefficient than cooling systems. 

Also, during hot summer days, you have wind and solar providing a lot of capacity in Texas. You have neither during a cold winter night because the sun isn't shining and the turbines can freeze up.

So you have extra demand and reduced supply. That adds up to shortages.

If these types of nights were more common they'd adjust the system to be able to cope with better, but these types of event are extremely rare so instead of spend the money for something that happens once in 40 years, they just say, "tough it out" and deal with it for the 24-48 hours it lasts and then they get back within the normal bounds they have prepared for. 

 

EDIT - quoted the wrong post for response, now fixed

Yes. Not only are the wind turbines not generating power, they also need to be heated to prevent damage. Not an issue in July. 
 

Power out since 230am. About to drop below 60 inside. Fuck everything. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by ChickenSandwich

[ZB'Tejas 593]

Just woke up to no power in 78702. Starting to get a bit nippy in the house and worrying about the pool


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Looks like the power went out at 2am... not sure if it’s been out this whole time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TwiceHorn 31283]

In what I assume is a rolling blackout right now. 

For some reason my hot water heater shut off valve was beeping and had been triggered by a teaspoon or so of water in the drain pan. 

 

I am guessing some kind of condensation from something. 

Fuck me. 

What fresh hell indeed. 

 

 

[Kringelbert Fishtybuns 943]

Last night, there were several transmission lines that went out causing ERCOT to call generators to come down on load.  I’m pretty sure this is a transmission bottleneck.  At over $9000/MW, generators will be making whatever they can.

[TwiceHorn 31283]

On a positive note, team flow is working about 7 hours later. 

And all my interior faucets are flowing. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

2 minutes ago, Kringelbert Fishtybuns said:

Last night, there were several transmission lines that went out causing ERCOT to call generators to come down on load.  I’m pretty sure this is a transmission bottleneck.  At over $9000/MW, generators will be making whatever they can.

That too. I forgot to mention that part. 

I bet they could handle cold with no precipitation. But ice on the lines causes problems. 

[washparkhorn 9935]

14 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

This kind of thing is so rare - the last time this happened was 40 years ago - the cost of planning for it, or retrofitting, is way too high relative to the risk. One night in 40 years. That's 1 in 14,600 compared to the A/C running maybe, 7,000 of those nights? I'm not an engineer, but this is a common problem... how much deviation do you plan for relative to your budget? We could make every house gas with a backup propane tank and a backup generator. but it would raise the cost of the house by another $50,000. Is that "worth" it for one night in 40 years? Most people would say "no" and those affected tonight will probably forget about it in a few weeks. And that ignores the added expense of buying all the propane and laying all of the gas lines, etc etc. Utilities do this kind of planning all the time.

Someone else mentioned as well that most madd built new construction homes are engineered to last through the 1-3 year warranty period and that's it. They're not going to put more money into a tract home than they have to. And most of the buyers are fine with that because they get granite counter tops and "wood" floors and that new home smell.

(Not making a judgment at all, just an economic observation about preferences)

The bottom line is that we could seriously prepare for this, but is it really worth the money or could that money be better spent relative to the rarity of the circumstances?

Excellent post. Thanks. I used gas all year long in colorado and chicago, but it was just part of the hook up onto a grid. Much more complicated to retrofit.