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2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on

Parliament

By Parliament
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SubliminalHorn
SubliminalHorn

Power back on. 109 hours. I almost want to cry a little 

Machinator
Machinator
BradInATX
BradInATX

I've actually been turning my heat up a degree every time a new Surly member loses power on this thread. It's a nice balmy 94 in here.

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10336

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:
4
    ...
 
 
gonemaroon
 
 
 
 
12:38p, 2/15/21 
 
I had a conversation with Bloomberg / I am going to make sure the questions about generation outages and the control room at ERCOT's handling of load shedding are asked - I promise you ERCOT and the PUCT are going to CYA for big generation outages and their own stupidity. Everyone I know in Texas is sitting in the cold thinking outages are rotating and they'll have power soon.  

The price of LMP right now is about $1400 no where near the price cap telling me they could be turning load back online because they have the room and they are not doing it. It's pissing me off to no end.
15
    ...
 
 
gonemaroon
 
 
 
 
12:39p, 2/15/21 
 
If anyone knows of any person in the press personally that is covering this - point them my way please. PM me

The entire system of checks and balances failed on this one, and everyone is suffering due to it.

This guy doesn't seem to actually know how the grid works and the requirement of having extra capacity in order to not lose the entire grid. I would be concerned if he was trading my money as an energy trader.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
edits 
 
    ...
 
 
gonemaroon
 
 
 
 
8:54a 
 
Why the **** is Vistra's stock price up when their assets are frozen up not operating at all and prices are capping at $9,000?  

Oh I know, once they cut the power to your home they are getting paid for $9,000 on their hedges and remaining solid fuel that is online.  

Suddenly they went from being massively short and facing billions in losses to flat to long and printing money at the states expense.
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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10903

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Lobo said:

Today, Tomorrow, and Thursday are gonna suck.  Godspeed my fellow Texans.  

Violence never solves anything, but when this is all over...somebody doxx somebody at ERCOT and let's beat the shit out of them in a parking lot somewhere.  

ercot are just the animals in the zoo

the texas state government BY GOD had to wage war on itself and SET THE MARKET FREE with no service level agreement and contracts bought and paid for by cronies with terms and conditions that provide zero protection for the customer citizens that must suffer for downtowns lit up like christmas trees.

it starts with wheels.

abbott must resign immediately.

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10903

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Fuck that. Texas is the last place on earth this should happen to and frankly the only area in the country I can give a pass this could ever happen to is south Florida.

Texas isn’t invisible. I’ve frozen in your state because mentally in my head it’s supposed to be warm. Dallas gets shit weather every winter and that’s a few hours from Austin and Houston, cutting it a little close to not have any contingency plan other than to say the the turbines froze and welp, good luck-you’re on your own. What’s bad is we could go back 7 days ago when this thread had a measly 700 posts and PHD would be giving posters the update 435d6b13d1e4e36923ca807d4a3abd67.jpg


I have zero experience in the energy sector but that screams maybe we need to get our ducks in a row, deice the wind mills, get alternative energy plant online-instead of waiting until Sunday night.

caption from ars technica article posted upthread:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/

Wind turbines can apparently operate in Antarctica, so it's not clear what Texas' problem is.

https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2016Oct25-three-wind-turbines-800x450.jpg

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hookemATL

hookemATL 11806

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I wanted to slap the shit out of some of my neighbors last night with all of the ornamental lighting on. Damn. 

Shitgiblet neighbor has had three sets of ornamental C9 lights on his back porch and decorating his trampoline throughout this entire thing. Not to mention all the lights on in rooms with no one in them. (Yes I have gone full rear window on my neighbors). 

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gyroprotagonist

gyroprotagonist 2594

Posted
Posted

downstairs temp was 48 this morning and that was with power and central heat going last night.  our ancient house can't take this artic shit.   All the vents are in the floorboard downstairs with the air ducts running through the crawlspace from the furnace in the basement.  the air temp coming from some of the vents furthest away from the furnace is ~82F at best.  The ducting (or whatever you call it) is fairly new as we had the unit replaced 2 years ago, but i guess the crawlspace is just so freaking cold it does not matter.  upstairs is at least OK as it has a separate unit.

- Is insulating the crawlspace a thing with the spray on shit?  we basically just have the hardwood floors between the living area and the crawlspace and that's it.  

for those w/o power hang in there and godspeed.

 

 

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GhostOfTomJoad

GhostOfTomJoad 9347

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

Also can anyone in cedar park give me an idea on how the power has been? 

I'm in SE CP (between Lakeline Mall & CPHS). I hate to whistle in the graveyard but we haven't had an outage since last Fri morning. Neighbors a few blocks over had rolling outages last night but have been online all morning. A friend in Muir Lake apartments had a 3 hour outage yesterday afternoon and was out again 10:30 last night until 7:30 this morning. NOTE: both of his outages have started & stopped precisely on the half hour so "appear" planned.

Friends over by Lakeline Station have been out since 5:38PM yesterday.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

This guy doesn't seem to actually know how the grid works and the requirement of having extra capacity in order to not lose the entire grid. I would be concerned if he was trading my money as an energy trader.

So we’re living under a system where 40 percent of us need to not have power for days during a major winter storm to save the whole thing? Got it. Maybe we should rethink the system. 

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Nicole44

Nicole44 22072

Posted
Posted

House is now at a balmy 60 degrees. Can’t complain as many of y’all have it far worse. Power was off last night from 8:55 pm until about 7:30 this morning. Went off again 25 minutes ago. So I am lucky I got the little power I did. Not water still (not expecting that to change). Did work for approximately 25 minutes. Sorry for everyone in worse shape than me. This sucks. Stay safe Surlies! ❤️

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10903

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

Do you think ERCOT manages power plants, their construction, and M&O?

If you want to talk about increasing supply, which I agree is a problem during the few extreme events, why aren’t people asking for more generation facilities? 

Be angry, but maybe asking to doxx and beat people up that work for a not for profit isn’t the best approach. Call me simple, but I just think that a once in a lifetime event event shouldn’t drive the wholesale change of our utility system/power grid that delivers cheap power, effectively, 99% of the time. 

this not-for-profit entity was created to allow insiders to write contracts with private companies with no service level agreement and no protection for the citizens that paid to build the grid in the first place over the past 115 years

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10903

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

We have enough generation facilities - they are intentionally abandoned and turned off or not prepared to continue generation for 3 days of continuous below freezing (not even fucking crazy temps, just out of the norm for Texas) - Stop acting like this is weather that no one on earth knows how to deal with or generate electricity in. It's cold for Texas, it's not cold with frame of reference to places that actually get cold. This is where preparation comes in, and that's why this is criminal negligence. The unpreparedness of the generation providers and the regulatory commission that oversees them IS THE PROBLEM here, not the lack of generation facilities you fucking rube.

and then we are lied to by our governor telling us residential is being prioritized over business despite pic after pic after pic of "GRID PROTECTION" while our loved ones DIE FROM HYPOTHERMIA IN THEIR OWN FUCKING HOMES

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Axle Hongsnort

Axle Hongsnort 208

Posted
Posted
tldr-shower won’t drip-turn off or on? Once again only worrying about one problem at a time, just went back to our house, temp is 59 so power had to be on sometime during the night/morning. But now it’s off and don’t know how long. Anyway, if one shower won’t push water, is it better to try to get it to drip or just leave it off in case it is frozen? I didn’t read the pipes page a few back.
 

same. the pipe into my refrigerator water dispenser is apparently frozen.
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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10336

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

So we’re living under a system where 40 percent of us need to not have power for days during a major winter storm to save the whole thing? Got it. Maybe we should rethink the system. 

When you lose over 40% of your generation ability in a once or twice in a lifetime storm pretty much. 

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10903

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Just read that texags thread and that gonemaroon guy says he’s an energy trader and seems to know what he’s talking about and he’s laying a very large share at the feet of ERCOT. Starts on page 7. Says we were minutes from the entire state being blacked out. Also seems like we’re pretty much fucked and if you don’t have power now don’t expect it until Thursday.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3182697/7

the comedy value of the millenium on texags:

"Thanks Democrats"

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10336

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

caption from ars technica article posted upthread:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/

Wind turbines can apparently operate in Antarctica, so it's not clear what Texas' problem is.

https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2016Oct25-three-wind-turbines-800x450.jpg

The ones on antarctica likely cost twice as much. Same reason people don't want to pay twice as much for anything

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Maybe I'm a little chippy because I'm cold with no power and water, but there's a thread for all of this puc stuff.it's an interesting discussion for sure but this is the last place I want to go as a weather guy to see it. Can I respectfully submit that you take it over there? I'm sure this won't work but I tried anyway. Thanks.

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10903

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Also conservative ag BigBucks with a good post on p.11

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3182697/11

big bucks having to apologize for nailing the pubs

+++

This is exactly right. And gonemaroon's posts have also been spot on during all of this.

I am a die-hard conservative and know I will get ripped for this, but I call them like I see them. Yes, we do not have the existing technology to survive on green energy alone right now. This will happen in other parts of the country if politicians force the transition too fast. So "greenies" and ignorant politicians on that side of the aisle get some blame.

Now for the unpopular part. Just what party has been 100% in charge of policy making in Texas for the last 25 years?? ERCOT is controlled by the PUCT who is appointed by the governor and answer to the state legislature. FERC has no jurisdiction over ERCOT.

The initial deregulation happened under Governor Bush. And Governor Perry and his PUCT is who authorized all the socialized CREZ lines to bring in the cheap wind power that has undercut the existing fossil generation.

The winter of 2011 was a huge warning sign yet the legislature held hearings, made a bunch of statements about how much they care, and promptly did nothing. Why? Because the large manufacturers that make the large campaign contributions want the cheapest power possible. They also can afford to have the backup generators and also cut deals with the power companies to be paid to shed load at certain times. Residential customers are who gets the short-end of the stick.

Fast forward a few years. PUCT Chairwoman Nelson saw this coming and started a discussion about a capacity market. A capacity market acts as insurance for cases like this. And insurance costs money every year to the end user. Therefore the large manufacturers spoke again and Governor Abbott didn't reappoint her and all three commissioners are now his appointees.

Then we are staring at potential rolling outages in the summer of 2018 through the summer of 2020. The PUCT worked with ERCOT to put out notices to all owners of generation and transmission lines that no planned outages would be allowed from mid-May to mid-October to make sure the system wouldn't crash due to heat. That honestly doesn't leave a large window for all the plants and lines to schedule outages and impossible for them all to do it in the spring and fall windows. Either that or they simply don't take them and you can only defer maintenance for so long before disaster occurs.

Long-winded way of saying that the PUCT, or politicians that the PUCT answers to, could have demanded that ERCOT change their compensation structure to make sure dependable capacity was on the system but were either ignorant or too afraid of adding a few dollars to power bills to insure this didn't happen. And now all the chickens have come home to roost.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105190

Posted
Posted

Well, it’s ranging from 39-41 inside the house. Rough nights sleep in front of the fire, lots of blankets. Animals even got under the covers. They never do that. They are cold and miserable.

My daughters fish tanks some stairs died. All of em. She’s gonna be sad. Well tell her later.

We can’t keep this up. We’re going to shut down here. Turn off the water, drain all the pipes. Putting frozen jugs of water in the fridge to keep things cool.

If my old 4x4 will make It up the hill, we’re heading to my parents. They still have power, and their gad fireplaces actually can keep their house warm even if they lose it.

This is beyond bad. People are going to die. I have a long rant about our profit first, profit only deregulated market, and what it has now cost us, but I’ll save that for later.

For now, this is a life safety event. I’m worried about people and pets making it through the week. You need to start thinking in those terms. Do what you can to protect your property, but things can be replaced. Lives can’t. And with freezing rain coming, you’re going to be stuck wherever you are. So make it someplace you can survive.

Good luck. Going to start shutting things down. I’ll check back in later.

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Shaggybevo

Shaggybevo 353

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Looks like from the ercot graph something just came online. 

Download the ERCOT app from Google Play or Apple AppStore to track the grid in real time.   It also will send notifications when the Emergency stages change.   

Their App works better than their grid.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

I'll provide a weather update about the upcoming minor storm tonight when I get power and can type. Or I'll just tether my phone to it later.

One interesting thing to note is that the winds have turned to the South which is usually nice but at 15 degrees doesn't feel so hot.  but it's the first time in 7 days that the wind is coming from the south.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
Just now, Neonmoon said:

I looked out the back balcony. Good news. I can see the new Porsche dealership and they still have power. #blessed 

The Germans didn't try (and fail 2X) to take over the world for nothing. Those guys mean business!

Likewise, I looked down the hill from my 54° house into the city of Bee Cave where the gallery of parking lot was well lit, as well as a big indoor sports facility that looked like the Taj Mahal bathed in light.

Because if there's one thing I need in this crisis, it's to know that my parking lots are well lit against muggers and predators.

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