2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on

[4th_and_18 709]

[Telegraph_it 3379]

Lots of snow on the pecan farm. 
 

[hornbri 1511]

I am out at lake LBJ and we have snow falling at a pretty good clip. None sticking to the ground. 

[clapclapclap 9000]

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by clapclapclap

[atomheartbevo 90663]

Yep, friend in Alpine got quite a bit of snow - most they've had in years.

 

[Zepol87 9342]

Decatur, TX checking in

[LongestHorn 772]

That’s what 40+ inches looks like, my bitches. Thanks Gale.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hate 20250]

5 hours ago, hornbri said:

I am out at lake LBJ and we have snow falling at a pretty good clip. None sticking to the ground. 

Are you Urban Meyer? Because if you are you have to tell us. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

That’s what 40+ inches looks like, my bitches. Thanks Gale.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fuck. That. One more decent storm and that stop sign will be buried

[Updawg 2387]

Fuck. That. One more decent storm and that stop sign will be buried

I’d just give up. Fuck that

[MoJames 8258]

Sw Colorado fun.

[TexasHooch 5210]

13 hours ago, LongestHorn said:

That’s what 40+ inches looks like, my bitches. Thanks Gale.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nope. Nope. Nope.  I've seen that much snow on the ground once or twice, but it was accumulated over weeks.  I can't imagine waking up to that much in the morning.  Those poor roofs.

[Guest]

spring Break in Denver 2003, I believe.  We were at my grandparents and got about 31 inches in the west side burbs.

i was so sick of sitting around the house, i volunteered to go out and shovel the walk and drive.  Maybe it was because I didn't have to do it week in and week out throughout the winter, but it wasn't that bad.  I also had no deadline... just lots of booze  and card games in the house when I finished.

[hornian 5296]

1 hour ago, MoJames said:

Sw Colorado fun.

Durango?

[Brisketexan 106952]

Got a nice little snowfall at the Grand Canyon yesterday.

[MoJames 8258]

Durango?

Yup

[hornian 5296]

4 hours ago, MoJames said:

6 hours ago, hornian said:

Durango?

Yup

Nice. I have family there, visit a couple of times a year most years. 

[phdhorn 6225]

Really good chance of frozen precip in Austin Sunday. Shouldn't be a hazard for more than a few hours, if at all. Models are starting to agree that it's turning on the colder side. Mostly just stuff falling, probably not much accumulation but could be a brief period of tricky driving Sun eve. Maybe.

Be back with details tomorrow.

[Updawg 2387]

Really good chance of frozen precip in Austin Sunday. Shouldn't be a hazard for more than a few hours, if at all. Models are starting to agree that it's turning on the colder side. Mostly just stuff falling, probably not much accumulation but could be a brief period of tricky driving Sun eve. Maybe.
Be back with details tomorrow.

Awesome. My daughter will be stoked

[Updawg 2387]

Not by you, just the chance of snow. Pervert

[phdhorn 6225]

8 hours ago, Updawg said:

Not by you, just the chance of snow. Pervert

Need to see pix first before you call me that with authority.

For the forecast:

Sunday could be a messy, but not necessarily hazardous day - at this point.

Mild storm system goes thru this morning, mure rain east of 35 than west, most of us won't get nuthin' beyond hard drizzle.  But maybe it'll knock out some pollen.  Breezy and cooler tonight but first temps get fairly warm, about 65°-67°.  Slow cooldown rest of week, each day a bit cooler as a series of weak fronts reinforce cooler air.  Temps down into the 50's by Friday.

Then a bigger, colder storm (much like last week) will sweep in Sunday.  How much precip this digs up is, like always, not real clear until about 48 hours before. But the main thing is that this storm will bring icy precip closer than last week.  Much of ATX will probably see brief periods of sleet or even snow.  Freezing rain not likely as the ground will be too warm.  This is more a brief thing to just keep an eye on if you're traveling, esp. west and north, but won't be a deterrent for more than a few hours.  Just something to keep an eye on.  You might see snow showers or sleet.  Maybe.

The main thing with this is just how much closer the line will come to Austin, not that it's stronger or more dangerous than last week's storm.  A few hours of be careful out there then it'll all move out.  So again, Sunday might be a little messy here/there but not hazardous.  Mainly just plan ahead if you're traveling.  Main highways will be okay, the back roads could ice up esp. on bridges etc. towards the evening as the storm moves out.

Not much, but enough to write about here.

[DigglerontheHoof 21557]

On 1/1/2021 at 4:41 PM, MoJames said:

On 1/1/2021 at 2:22 PM, hornian said:

Durango?

Yup

love that part of CO.  I usually go up and stay in the Ridgeway/Ouray area and ride my motorcycles for a couple of weeks each summer.  Million Dollar Hwy is an awesome ride, if you can avoid heavy traffic days.  Actually, tons of great riding roads in that area. 

[Orange&White 5573]

34 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Need to see pix first before you call me that with authority.

For the forecast:

Sunday could be a messy, but not necessarily hazardous day - at this point.

Mild storm system goes thru this morning, mure rain east of 35 than west, most of us won't get nuthin' beyond hard drizzle.  But maybe it'll knock out some pollen.  Breezy and cooler tonight but first temps get fairly warm, about 65°-67°.  Slow cooldown rest of week, each day a bit cooler as a series of weak fronts reinforce cooler air.  Temps down into the 50's by Friday.

Then a bigger, colder storm (much like last week) will sweep in Sunday.  How much precip this digs up is, like always, not real clear until about 48 hours before. But the main thing is that this storm will bring icy precip closer than last week.  Much of ATX will probably see brief periods of sleet or even snow.  Freezing rain not likely as the ground will be too warm.  This is more a brief thing to just keep an eye on if you're traveling, esp. west and north, but won't be a deterrent for more than a few hours.  Just something to keep an eye on.  You might see snow showers or sleet.  Maybe.

The main thing with this is just how much closer the line will come to Austin, not that it's stronger or more dangerous than last week's storm.  A few hours of be careful out there then it'll all move out.  So again, Sunday might be a little messy here/there but not hazardous.  Mainly just plan ahead if you're traveling.  Main highways will be okay, the back roads could ice up esp. on bridges etc. towards the evening as the storm moves out.

Not much, but enough to write about here.

Thanks!

 

I will stock up on gumbo making provisions, bourbon and firewood.

[boknowstecmo 221]

NOAA is saying there's a possibility of supercell/isolated tornado for the SE Texas coast today. 

[Al_4_ISU 12645]

We are in some bizarre kind of winter purgatory.

There's too much snow to do normal weather outdoor activities like biking, hiking, bonfires, etc.  But there isn't enough snow to go skiing, snowmobiling, sledding, etc.  The 10 day outlook is mild from temperature stand point for this part of the world (high 20's for highs, 15 for overnight low) this time of year, but you can't really do anything with it in either direction.

It either needs to warm up and melt the snow, or dump another foot.  Unfortunately, given our luck, it will persist like for this a couple months, thaw out, and then we'll get buttfucked by a late April snowstorm after we get in the field.  Or it will just get really fucking cold and stay dry.

[Wally Pryor 5410]

On 1/1/2021 at 12:55 PM, MoJames said:

Sw Colorado fun.

 

Awesome pic of your dog.   He's not having any fun, looks like. 

[MoJames 8258]

3 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

 

Awesome pic of your dog.   He's not having any fun, looks like. 

Thanks. Phones these days. Yeah he is spoiled.

[Hate 20250]

Latest weather models for potential winter weather here in Texas this weekend.

[gsoda3 3362]

Yeahhhh right

[Orange&White 5573]

4-8" of snow, huh? 

 

Go home, GEM Model. You're drunk.

[Al_4_ISU 12645]

That reminds me of the weather models people post on Facebook around here when we get 3-4" of snow.  They're always calling for 24-36" of snow in one event.  That has literally never happened here.

[phdhorn 6225]

All the models now agreeing that snowfall or icy precip is in store for some part of Sunday at least in parts of ATX area (more W/N at least of Trav-WillCo).  Still all over the map on accumulation.  Let's just say that that Euro/US graphics above are really on one end of the spectrum for us.  But, it is pretty significant that they're sorta agreeing, and now most models are now putting some accumulation at least W and N half of Austin city and TravCo.  Most likely a dusting.

If you believe that.

I'm pretty convinced that Sat night into Sunday will be:  1) pretty cold - temps might not make it to 40° on Sunday; 2) Snowy/sleety in part, mostly towards later Sunday when the cold air filters in; 3) temporary caution while the stuff is falling and in many spots icing up on roads/bridges and even accumulating very lightly.  Storm is now supposed to move outta here faster (by Sun. evening) so icy events not quite as long.

tl;dr:  yeah I think you'll see snow/sleet/icing in parts (not all) of our 3-4 county area, mostly N-NW portions, and some of it might prove a little nasty to driving in some areas.  But not a "come to a halt" thing as in full winter storm.  (However, do take care, in WillCo and north to Dallas, I do believe this storm will drop the 4-6 inches of snow and be tough sledding for a few hours on 35 et.al.  Travel before it gets here if you can).

Unlike my underwear, of course this forecast is subject to change.  More later if significance as usual with this type of cold storm.

Edited January 7, 2021 by phdhorn

[Hate 20250]

The NAM weather model has this shifting a little further south. I would love for this to verify. It would be a blast!!

Edited January 7, 2021 by Hate

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

Goodbye. And good luck

[phdhorn 6225]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

The NAM weather model has this shifting a little further south. I would love for this to verify. It would be a blast!!

Just a reminder if you read these, kinda pain in the ass to translate, but the "nnZ" is the GMT (in jolly ol' England, Greenwhich and all that).  So we're 6 hours behind them, thus in this case the model was run at 12Z which is noon their time, meaning 6 a.m. CST.  The forecast hour is basically hours projected out from model run, in this case it's 3 1/2 days from the run (84 hours out).  The "valid at" is saying "we think this model best represents conditions at nnZ" which in this case is midnight Mon. morning GMT, again making it 6 p.m. Sunday Austin time.  So this model is saying that by 6 a.m. Bevo time, we're likely to have 2-3 inches of snow on the ground. (Insert Idi Amin boat laughing guy gif here?  Not sure, these models are getting pretty insistent).  The hours out usually agrees with the "valid" numbers but not always.  The exceptions are boring and not worth 'splain'.

One other thing, the Euro model is still supreme by a few hundred yards.  American is catching up, but them Euros must put Bordeaux in it or something because it's really good.

But both American and Euro are saying pretty strongly now, snow's a'comin'.  I remain respectfully skeptical but can be swayed.

[Hate 20250]

Everything I’ve ready suggests that a winter storm is brewing for at least some parts of Texas this Sunday. We’ll know a lot more beginning tomorrow when the system bringing the storm here actually makes it onto the US landmass. One thing about the models that I’ve read is that they really struggle with the temperatures and depth of the cold once the front makes it this far south. The missing ingredient for a winter storm this weekend is cold enough air and it appears we may have that on the way. I don’t think there is much disagreement that there will be plenty of moisture to work with once the cold air gets here.

[Restinmybones 111]

2 hours ago, Hate said:

The NAM weather model has this shifting a little further south. I would love for this to verify. It would be a blast!!

Wow. Excellent. I love snow and so does my wife {she's Russian}. She misses it. I just think it's cool to see some snow once every 5 years, or so. 

[Al_4_ISU 12645]

How fucked is it that I'm sitting here actually hoping for some snow, on the Iowa/Minnesota border, and fucking Texas has been hogging it all for the past 2 weeks.

If not for yesterday, that would be the craziest shit of the whole year.

[Newdoc 3511]

Ironically I will be driving to Colorado to the snow the day before it snows here. Go figure.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

How fucked is it that I'm sitting here actually hoping for some snow, on the Iowa/Minnesota border, and fucking Texas has been hogging it all for the past 2 weeks.
If not for yesterday, that would be the craziest shit of the whole year.

Shut up

[Trey3216 15452]

2 hours ago, Restinmybones said:

Wow. Excellent. I love snow and so does my wife {she's Russian}. She misses it. I just think it's cool to see some snow once every 5 years, or so. 

Did she arrive via FedEx or USPS?  

[miguelito 11507]

Thanks for the updates, Frankie.

[Hate 20250]

Getting closer to my neck of the woods. I know I’ll end up disappointed getting only rain and cold, but this would a hell of a lot of fun if it happens.

[Restinmybones 111]

4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Did she arrive via FedEx or USPS?  

:-} Wise guy, huh? I knew I was askin' for trouble the minute I mentioned it. She arrived in my private jet.

 

 

Ok. I don't have a private jet. She arrived on Lufthansa 11 years ago. I'm 63 and she's 57. She taught school in Nice for 20 years and we met there. I got the better end of the bargain. She's fluent in four languages and has a doctorate in math. She was raised in St. Petersburg {Leningrad when she was born} and we've visited her dad there a few times. He's 80 something and still teaches college physics and engineering and makes great borscht. She even gets along with my 30 year old son and that's no easy feat.

[Trey3216 15452]

1 hour ago, Restinmybones said:

:-} Wise guy, huh? I knew I was askin' for trouble the minute I mentioned it. She arrived in my private jet.

 

 

Ok. I don't have a private jet. She arrived on Lufthansa 11 years ago. I'm 63 and she's 57. She taught school in Nice for 20 years and we met there. I got the better end of the bargain. She's fluent in four languages and has a doctorate in math. She was raised in St. Petersburg {Leningrad when she was born} and we've visited her dad there a few times. He's 80 something and still teaches college physics and engineering and makes great borscht. She even gets along with my 30 year old son and that's no easy feat.

I had to buddy.  

[Restinmybones 111]

16 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I had to buddy.  

I understand. I'm used to it. I've been retired for 5 days. During my entire 38 year career, I had a clearance at various levels. It was renewed every 5 years. I've been prodded and probed from almost every direction. It has made me a pretty cautious, private person. We got married in 2011. A few years later, during renewal of my clearance, I went through several cross-examination sessions lasting about an hour each just about my wife, her daughter in France, her family in Russia, and my "contacts" with them. They cross-examined my wife, mother, son, ex-wife, and my wife's sister who is married to a UK citizen and lives in Hong Kong and London. I wasn't military. I was civilian in a congressional agency. I'm glad that's done. I'd been ready to go for 5 years. The atmosphere and attitudes and how we did things are different now and have been different for maybe 15 years now. However, that's a complex story many wouldn't quite understand. Anyway, probe away. I'm numb.

[Trey3216 15452]

8 minutes ago, Restinmybones said:

I understand. I'm used to it. I've been retired for 5 days. During my entire 38 year career, I had a clearance at various levels. It was renewed every 5 years. I've been prodded and probed from almost every direction. It has made me a pretty cautious, private person. We got married in 2011. A few years later, during renewal of my clearance, I went through several cross-examination sessions lasting about an hour each just about my wife, her daughter in France, her family in Russia, and my "contacts" with them. They cross-examined my wife, mother, son, ex-wife, and my wife's sister who is married to a UK citizen and lives in Hong Kong and London. I wasn't military. I was civilian in a congressional agency. I'm glad that's done. I'd been ready to go for 5 years. The atmosphere and attitudes and how we did things are different now and have been different for maybe 15 years now. However, that's a complex story many wouldn't quite understand. Anyway, probe away. I'm numb.

I interviewed for a position with a 3 letter agency fresh out of college and they did interviews with over 70 people during the process.  2 of my best buds being from Europe helped increase the workload. 

[Restinmybones 111]

10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I interviewed for a position with a 3 letter agency fresh out of college and they did interviews with over 70 people during the process.  2 of my best buds being from Europe helped increase the workload. 

Hahaha... Ok. You got a taste. To increase the complexity and stress of my experiences, I have a Russian surname. That part of the family has been here since 1893. However, I travelled extensively when I was a kid, including Czechoslovakia and East Germany with my parents and the USSR with a History prof and a few people during the late '70s. When the wall fell, a branch of my great grandfather's family in St. Petersburg contacted and visited us in Texas. One older lady would have been my grandfather's first cousin. They were a somewhat prominent family before and after the revolution - intellectuals, military and bureaucrats, a couple of doctors, and theater people. Some of them became reds and had high level Bolshevik connections. One is buried in Mars Field. When I was being interviewed during my first clearance above secret, one guy looked through my information and documents and said "Whew. Look at this travel and that surname." He looked straight at me and said "We're gonna have fun with you." Hahahaha. It wasn't a problem.

[Trey3216 15452]

15 minutes ago, Restinmybones said:

Hahaha... Ok. You got a taste. To increase the complexity and stress of my experiences, I have a Russian surname. That part of the family has been here since 1893. However, I travelled extensively when I was a kid, including Czechoslovakia and East Germany with my parents and the USSR with a History prof and a few people during the late '70s. When the wall fell, a branch of my great grandfather's family in St. Petersburg contacted and visited us in Texas. One older lady would have been my grandfather's first cousin. They were a somewhat prominent family before and after the revolution - intellectuals, military and bureaucrats, a couple of doctors, and theater people. Some of them became reds and had high level Bolshevik connections. One is buried in Mars Field. When I was being interviewed during my first clearance above secret, one guy looked through my information and documents and said "Whew. Look at this travel and that surname." He looked straight at me and said "We're gonna have fun with you." Hahahaha. It wasn't a problem.

Mine was in ‘03/04, so the stuff was ramped to 11 (although, yours was ramped higher based solely on what you just said).   I remember having to call my 6th grade gym teacher, who had retired, to tell her to expect a call from them.  Shit was nuts.  

[Restinmybones 111]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Mine was in ‘03/04, so the stuff was ramped to 11 (although, yours was ramped higher based solely on what you just said).   I remember having to call my 6th grade gym teacher, who had retired, to tell her to expect a call from them.  Shit was nuts.  

😁Yeah. I know. I remember doing the same thing with a couple of friends, a couple of professors, my parents' best friends, etc. I'm laughing about it, now, and I guess that's good. It was mostly just a pain the ass, once every 5 years. Hell, much of the time, the work was harder. I travelled more than some pilots. At times, I feel like an old worn suitcase, scarred and covered with tags and stickers and tales of many places.

Time for bed, a book, and some ovaltine. Ok, maybe not ovaltine. Milk and chocolate chip cookies. I think I've got the munchies.