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2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on

Parliament

By Parliament
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fuggled

fuggled 576

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, slorch said:

So 23% of power production is shut off with the turbines. The other part of the power grid should be able to maintain through a weather event on a scale that basically none of us have ever seen in our lifetime. Right?
LO freaking L at Bloomberg approaching objectivity.

What in god's name are you slorching about, man?  It says right in the article that wind only accounts for a fraction of the outage.  There's 30 gigawatts from other sources that is down right now.

Quote

Wind shutdowns accounted for 3.6 to 4.5 gigawatts -- or less than 13% -- of the 30 to 35 gigawatts of total outages, according to Woodfin. That’s in part because wind only comprises 25% of the state’s energy mix this time of year.

 

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SubliminalHorn
SubliminalHorn

Power back on. 109 hours. I almost want to cry a little 

Machinator
Machinator
BradInATX
BradInATX

I've actually been turning my heat up a degree every time a new Surly member loses power on this thread. It's a nice balmy 94 in here.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31265

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, captcha said:

I just typed up my scenario and some dumb questions asking for advice, but decided to go do some research before posting. I have been following this thread off and on and haven't seen a lot of chatter about what actually causes a pipe to burst. Maybe I just missed it. I was assuming it was ice expanding beyond what the pipe could handle, like a beer in the freezer, but come to find out that isn't what usually causes them to burst. Although it can. Most often it is the pressure build up in the pipe caused by the ice and not the ice itself.

 

This leads me to believe that my outdoor faucet that's not turning on isn't as dire a situation as I had thought because that faucet is likely a dead end to my plumbing. At least, I think it is. If the frozen pipe is at the end, it seems the pressure shouldn't be a problem as long as I have an upstream sink partially open to relieve that pressure. I don't know what I'm talking about, so this could be total bullshit. Seems to make sense though.

Yeah that's right afaik. 

 

It is still possible for ice to cause a rupture if it hits a restriction in the pipe. 

 

You could probably get it going by wrapping in a cloth and pouring hot water on it. 

Edited by TwiceHorn
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MissingInAction

MissingInAction 24811

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, George said:

What is the verdict on vehicles - I've got a 2013 F150 sitting in the street and i'm curious if i should fire it up and run around the block, or wait for it to warm up on friday.  Anything to look out for?

Ice on the brakes. I found that this morning when I took my car around the complex.

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Michael Knight

Michael Knight 12888

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, slorch said:

So 23% of power production is shut off with the turbines. The other part of the power grid should be able to maintain through a weather event on a scale that basically none of us have ever seen in our lifetime. Right?
LO freaking L at Bloomberg approaching objectivity.

get slorched on

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104561

Posted
Posted
Serious update:

If you live within 4-5 miles of someone you know/trust who does have heat/water you should start making plans to leave your place and head to their on foot. Bundle up, it's not "that cold" and you can survive a walk with layers that far, it's a little bit of inconvenience and discomfort that could save your life, because another night in the teens and a hard freeze without electricity and a lot of homes will be sub freezing inside. Do not wait until you are already freezing to leave your home to go somewhere that has heat and essentials.
Sleep 4 to a bed whatever, do not fuck around with basic privacy/convenience if you are sub 40 degrees inside your home with no running water, now is the time to make a break for it and on foot is going to be the safest option unless you have 4WD and are very experienced in driving in these conditions.
We have several of our friends in the dallas area coming to stay with us at the Grand Hyatt in the DFW airport because we were lucky enough to secure the room for another night, we literally do not have room to sleep on the floor or I'd invite more folks. 


Yep. This is a life safety issue now. If you can get to warmth, get there. If you can help people do so, so that. I have a 4x4 in NW hills, made it around ok. If anyone needs a lift in the area, DM me.

How bad do you suck at math and/or reading,[mention=354]slorch[/mention]? Wind is operating at about 2/3rds of its planned output. The impact to the outage per ERCOT is 2,000 MW.

Thermal plants (NG, coal, nuke) are producing 35,000 - 40,000 of the 70,000 MWs ERCOT plans on.

Which failure is having a bigger impact?


The fact that this has been a basis for “see, green energy sucks!”....when the bulk of the failures are at our fossil fuel plants...perfect.

What is the verdict on vehicles - I've got a 2013 F150 sitting in the street and i'm curious if i should fire it up and run around the block, or wait for it to warm up on friday.  Anything to look out for?


Dead battery is probably the biggest concern if it’s old... otherwise cars can handle the cold.


Yep. Had to jump start my truck, that battery gets weak in the cold. But my wife’s car is brand new, and fired right up. So, got it started, and let it run for a while before we headed out.

We’re tired. Taking showers, then a nap. And hoping that my folks keep their power....

But seriously, if you’re in NW hills and can’t get out without 4x4, lemme know, I’ll try to help.
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Skipper

Skipper 6103

Posted
Posted

Skimming through that Texags thread someone linked with that one guy that seems to know what he's talking about, JFC if what he says is true it's just unreal incompetence.  Copy/pasted some quotes below:

Quote

I would like to say, that when I was watching this in real time from what I could see I thought ERCOT lost the entire grid for about 2 minutes. I teared up watching it - I thought the entire state was going black and it was so unsettling to watch how they handled this but in the end they lost 10-15K of MW and was able to catch it in some miracle. It was horrible watching it because the grid had a solid 90 minutes to start rotational outages and didn't and had another 10 minutes to panic before code red and didn't get the damn job done. Had the entire state gone black I wouldn't even have known what to say.

 

Load was 75,000 forecasted and they only had say 65,000MW of generation so they knew for damn near a week that they would have to do rotational outages. Rotational outages are a big deal, but it's orderly and not a black out. They knew this and were prepared for it, the odd thing is they never alerted the public to the extent of having to curtail and rotate that many people on and off. But that is what it is. In that case since it's basically never been done you know damn effing well the CEO of ERCOT and every brain trust in the entire organization should have been in that room. This is a HUGE HUGE HUGE deal in itself.

From that point / what I am saying is they knew they had to cut load they knew they were going to do it and then they didn't do it on time and when they needed to. Instead they sat there and watched the **** hit the fan beyond a point of repair. This is what happened / they are going to try to blow smoke up everyone's ass.

 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9898

Posted
Posted

For you folks driving around, and I say this S somebody who lived in Maine through multiple winters:  ITS THE STOPPING that’s the dangerous part of ice/snow driving.  I can not emphasize this enough.  
 

All of you are driving on all weather tires, with rubber not designed for these temps. You are in effect driving around on golf balls. The 4x4 is nice to get out of a snow bank, won’t do shit when you hit a patch of ice. Drive like you have an open bowl of water on the seat next to you and give yourself way, way, way more room to stop than you think you need.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)

Still in a pattern of 7 to 9 hours off, 30 minutes to an hour on.  Luckily that's just enough to get it back to 70 and then hasn't gone below 58 before power coming back on.

Unfortunately, we may start to see more equipment failures that slow recovery.  And maybe more cell tower outages.  More water issues?  Our pressure is about half of 2 days ago.  

 

Edited by clapclapclap
north side of DFW
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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)

Also, while I totally understand wanting to prevent expensive repairs, I really do, but with all the people losing pipes or just shivering in the dark with almost no power for days, there's a new addendum to a basic rule:

Nobody cares about your fantasy football team, or your swimming pool.

Edited by clapclapclap
To be fair, nobody cares about my power situation, either.
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1978horn

1978horn 880

Posted
Posted
Serious update:

If you live within 4-5 miles of someone you know/trust who does have heat/water you should start making plans to leave your place and head to their on foot. Bundle up, it's not "that cold" and you can survive a walk with layers that far, it's a little bit of inconvenience and discomfort that could save your life, because another night in the teens and a hard freeze without electricity and a lot of homes will be sub freezing inside. Do not wait until you are already freezing to leave your home to go somewhere that has heat and essentials.
Sleep 4 to a bed whatever, do not fuck around with basic privacy/convenience if you are sub 40 degrees inside your home with no running water, now is the time to make a break for it and on foot is going to be the safest option unless you have 4WD and are very experienced in driving in these conditions.
We have several of our friends in the dallas area coming to stay with us at the Grand Hyatt in the DFW airport because we were lucky enough to secure the room for another night, we literally do not have room to sleep on the floor or I'd invite more folks. 


We have had rolling blackouts with max 3hrs off, but others in my neighborhood have been without power for 24hrs+. Even across the street. It is weird how houses next to each other are different power sources. We ended up hosting 6 adults, 8 kids under 14 and 6 dogs between the 3 families last night. We did have rolling blackouts, but the low of 58 in my house is better than the 42 at their houses.
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irishtexan

irishtexan 11445

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

For you folks driving around, and I say this S somebody who lived in Maine through multiple winters:  ITS THE STOPPING that’s the dangerous part of ice/snow driving.  I can not emphasize this enough.  
 

All of you are driving on all weather tires, with rubber not designed for these temps. You are in effect driving around on golf balls. The 4x4 is nice to get out of a snow bank, won’t do shit when you hit a patch of ice. Drive like you have an open bowl of water on the seat next to you and give yourself way, way, way more room to stop than you think you need.

A few other pointers from someone who drove around in Chicago for a decade:

1) You cannot go up a snowy/icy hill going 5 mph. Yes, you're supposed to be driving much slower than normal. And I'm not advocating for driving recklessly fast, but you need momentum to get up the hill.

2) Give people space. Don't pull up behind someone that is stuck. They need to reverse out, regain traction, and then get through the spot. Give the driver in front of you space to reverse out of being stuck. Don't pull up right behind them.

3) Snow = traction. Ice = spinning. Keep at least one tire on the snowy part of the road if possible. 

I've been out a few times helping my cousin get from his house to mine, and roads are getting a bit better. In my south austin hood, much of the snow and ice is melting and turning into slush. I was fucking ecstatic to see that the neighborhood liquor store was open, as I was down to about 1/4 bottle of bourbon!

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vicerous

vicerous 169

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Skimming through that Texags thread someone linked with that one guy that seems to know what he's talking about, JFC if what he says is true it's just unreal incompetence.  Copy/pasted some quotes below:

 

Can someone smarter than me explain what happens when they "lose the grid"? It's obviously not good but how bad is it? Could they not get it back?

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immamac

immamac 42516

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 1978horn said:

 


We have had rolling blackouts with max 3hrs off, but others in my neighborhood have been without power for 24hrs+. Even across the street. It is weird how houses next to each other are different power sources. We ended up hosting 6 adults, 8 kids under 14 and 6 dogs between the 3 families last night. We did have rolling blackouts, but the low of 58 in my house is better than the 42 at their houses.

 

Trying to get ahead of what I know is coming. Below freezing for prolonged time = hypothermia and once you get there, you aren't going anywhere. You are staying where you are until you either freeze to death or you warm up significantly. At 45-50 degrees with blankets and stuff you can last a long while. Under 40 you are fucked and you won't know when you are too fucked to leave. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9898

Posted
Posted (edited)

The multiple people to a bed thing is on point.  As is bailing if you have somewhere to go, while you still have energy to do it.

 

If your water is somehow miraculously flowing, drain all your lines, leave all the faucets open, and shut off your water main before you leave.  If you have a floor drain, you can drain the water heater, turn off the gas supply, and shut the fill valve. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

Just ventured out to try to get something to eat in North Dallas/Addison. Our little seems to be the only thing with power by the Galleria and target off 635. Everything is dead and the Target is stupid packed. Be safe 

It took 40 minutes to do the drive thru at Jack in the Box, 12 cars ahead of us.  I'm not complaining, they only had 2 persons working.  God bless them for showing up and it was tasty and hot.

Whataburger right next to them had a line wrapped completely around the building and out into the street (In-N-Out animal style...)  Probably 35+ cars, I assumed well over an hour wait.  Nope.  They must have been full staffed, as they had the 2nd drive thru (freeze the employee's butt off) line working.  When we left JIB after 40 minutes the truck that would have been 2 in front of me was leaving, so less than 45 minutes.

Not bad when on a warm up drive and charging up all the cell phones.

Damn, I see the next snow/ice storm is already east of Possum Kingdom Lake.

Edited by clapclapclap
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GringoSalado

GringoSalado 1651

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Shoxthemonkey said:

Just as a PSA, there should be a red cord that hangs from the garage door opening system whether it's chain or track. You can pull that cord to release the door from the powered track. The door can then be manually operated. When it is ready to be returned to auto service you can close the door and use a short push stick or flat ended tool to re-engage the mechanism to the track or chain. No reason to be trapped because the power is out.

One other thing, Do this when the door is closed. If you pull the cord while the door is open it could fall to the closed position and kill or injure a pet or child standing in the way. Don't do that.

The door will re-engage itself: leave door closed, operate door opener (from up to down position) and walla

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89Horn

89Horn 1492

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, vicerous said:

Can someone smarter than me explain what happens when they "lose the grid"? It's obviously not good but how bad is it? Could they not get it back?

The aggy is talking about “blackstart” condition.  If the entire grid is out, it is difficult to get it started because the ERCOT grid is an island(because Texas doesn’t want to invoke interstate commerce and have its grid subject to federal regulation).  There are a handful of direct current ties with the eastern interconnect to OK and AR and to the south with Comisión Federal de Mexico at the border to Mexico.  The Texas grid operates at asynchronous connection.  We’d have to establish a connection to the outside to get the grid started that is complicated by the DC to AC power transfers.  But, getting it started is one thing and maintaining stability of the vastly interconnected grid across the state is another thing.  We don’t ever want the entire grid going down.

By the way, ERCOT’s grid controls 85% of the state.  The Southwest Power Pool controls most of the rest in the panhandle and northeast and southeast TX as part of the eastern interconnect.  El Paso is part of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council in the western interconnect.  I’d be curious to see how folks in Amarillo, Beaumont, and Texarkana are doing.

Edited by 89Horn
Wrote out SPP, WECC, CFE acronyms.
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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)

BTW, Top Golf is still running their pair of 50' outside TV's.  

God damn ERTWAT, but a lot of others are hindering recovery.  Some stupid merchants of greed never read Tragedy of the Commons.

Big thanks to Jerry Jones for opening up JerryWorld as a warming shelter, since they're staying lit and heated.

Oh wait, he only did the lit and heated part.  Need some heat to protect infrastructure, but all those lights aren't doing that.

Edited by clapclapclap
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