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Dallas Cowboys 2020 Regular Season Thread: Finally No More Garrett!

Vic Mackey

By Vic Mackey
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DougO

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1 hour ago, bmbmd said:

So maybe change the thread title to "Finally, no more Mike Nolan?"

 

https://heavy.com/sports/dallas-cowboys/cowboys-mike-nolan-not-expected-return-2021/?fbclid=IwAR0Zk22vUj4bb7nlqlyo35lbk9wr282Im4AdotbBJUJ4XWE5VaQd1shFarg

The Cowboys already have a far better DC on the staff than Nolan, George Edwards, who was Mike Zimmer's defensive coordinator for five years in Minnesota. They need to go back to that style and ditch Nolan's goofy hybrid bullshit. The Cowboys hired him as Senior Defensive assistant, which almost seems like DC in waiting after McCarthy's debt to Nolan is fulfilled and they can make the switch. At least I wish that were the case.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49309

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On 12/16/2020 at 12:07 AM, Patrick Bateman said:

Looks like the entire defensive staff may be gone, which means the defense will be under a 3rd different DC (4th in 4 if you consider Marinelli to Richard) in 3 years.  Water Buffalo McCarthy will get one more season with a healthy Dak.  Imagine we're going to go defense in the first round too.

 

Hope the replacement DC knows how to better use the personnel... Nolan had no idea wtf he was doing!!!

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DougO

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Gotta pull for Houston, Atlanta and Carolina to pull off upsets, but all are playing playoff contenders. If Dallas loses they stay on track for the 4th pick, which is probably the highest possible. If they mess around and win a game in their last two they might pick as late as 8th.

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LTtxfan

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Three unexpected moves for the Cowboys to make

There is a lot of work to be done for Dallas. Here are some things to do that most wouldn’t see coming.

By Tom Ryle@TomRyleBTB  Dec 17, 2020, 9:30am CST

Quote

When you have a season like the Dallas Cowboys are having, it usually leads to a lot of offseason moves and changes. It is pretty certain that is exactly what is coming. Some things, like a shakeup of the defensive coaching staff, just seem obvious. But what are some things the team might do that would be a bit shocking, or at least surprising? Here are three. Please note that this is not saying these are going to happen, just looking at how some boldness might change the course of the franchise.

Cut Jaylon Smith

This may not be as much of a stretch as the rest, since there are others who have floated this idea. His play has not been great this season. At times, “mystifying” is very applicable. It’s hard to know what is going on with him; he is no longer just having poor results individually, he has reached the point of dragging down the players around him on the field. He is a great individual and seems to be a leader in the locker room, but he is certainly not carrying his part of the load. It is time for the team to admit it and move on.

However, most people think it is not feasible due to his contract. But it turns out that it not only is something that the team could manage, it would be very valuable in cap management, at least according to the figures at Over the Cap. If the Cowboys designated Smith a post-June 1 cut, then he would only create a dead money hit of $2.6 million this year - and providing the actual cut was before March 17, when his salary would fully guarantee, the Cowboys would gain $7.2 million in cap space. His big contract turned out to have a fairly low guaranteed amount, which makes it much easier to escape. The team might even be able to swing some kind of trade for him if they can find someone who is willing to pay him, or if they could work out a renegotiated contract. But that is pretty unlikely, so an outright release is just the most logical way.

Dallas has for years had a problem with hanging onto players too long. It would be a real signal that they were being more aggressive in correcting their roster issues if they went ahead and moved on from Smith. That is also why there is no point in trying to redo his contract, because there just is no argument to be made for keeping him on the field. It would leave a hole to fill, of course, but there are ways to go about that. Like the next.

Trade out of the first round entirely

It seems fated that Dallas will have a high draft slot, with somewhere in the top five certainly not out of the question. Many people are pleading for the team to trade back, given that there is not a good match between what the Cowboys need and the talent available in the upper part of the first round.

Well, let’s take that a step farther and just get out of the first round entirely. Get as many picks in the second round and on as possible, with an obvious preference to be higher than lower. And no, this is not an attempt to redo the infamous “special teams draft” of 2009 that hobbled the team for years. This is about there just not being anyone in the first round that really moves the needle, combined with the needs that the Cowboys have.

With the current state of the roster, the positions that really jump out are defensive tackle, linebacker (see the first move listed), and safety. On offense, they already have good players, many of whom are set to return from injury. The one place they might want to look on that side of the ball is for an insurance running back. Cutting Ezekiel Elliott was another move I contemplated, but his contract is loaded with a ton more guaranteed money and he is just not a feasible cut or trade right now. Otherwise, any offensive players taken would be for depth, at least initially, and that is not worth a first-rounder.

On defense, they have a lot of players at defensive end, so many that they are basically just keeping Bradlee Anae on the shelf as emergency depth. Cornerback is one position that justifies first-round capital, but if Trevon Diggs comes back from his injury to become the player they hope for, that might not be a fully effective use.

As a general rule of thumb, defensive tackles, off-ball linebackers, and safeties are not good values to spend a first-round pick on. So rather than do something like that, the Cowboys should trade out of day one completely, and pick up multiple day two picks. Then they can carpet bomb those lower value positions. The staff has been fairly good at finding value beyond the first round, especially last year. Go for quantity in order to wind up with quality at the end of the day. Sometimes the draft is really a numbers game.

Oh, and did I mention the staff?

Put GM Jerry out to pasture

Some proposals are just a bit out of the normal range of expectations. Others venture into the far-fetched. Then there’s this one, which is generally seen as falling into the “when they pry it out of his cold dead fingers” category.

Except I would argue that it really isn’t. Jerry Jones, who is 78, has been sliding more and more into an oversight role, with son Stephen, scouting maven Will McClay, and the head coach handling almost all the day to day decisions. This is not taking him completely out of the game, either, because he is still the owner, and he still has lots of meetings and stuff to handle in that role.

It just is time to get him completely out of the personnel business, from the draft to contract negotiations. No more paying people for their past services. No more first round running backs. No more talking to every mic . . .

OK, that last is clearly a wild and totally unattainable fantasy. Just create a situation where he talks about something else. Getting him to focus more on the continued building of the brand and lording the value of his franchise over the other owners. Make it clear he is not really involved in the roster.

And while we are at it, let’s redefine the roles of the rest of top management. The shape of the roster should be all on Mike McCarthy. To use an old metaphor, he should consult with his coordinators and assistants, then draw up the grocery list. No second guessing allowed. He has to find a way to win with the players, so he needs to have control over who those players are, definitely including which of their own free agents the team should prioritize. That also extends to who they aren’t, with full authority to bench, and by far the biggest voice in who has to be released or, if possible, traded.

McClay then becomes the shopper, taking that list and figuring out how to fill it with the resources available. The draft has been his best tool, and that should continue. As for free agency, he probably needs more of a voice in how to spend whatever cap space the team has. That would be more useful after 2021, when the cap is expected to contract. But now that huge new deals seem to be on the horizon for the rights to broadcast or stream the games, this should become more relevant over time.

That leaves Stephen Jones to handle the pocketbook. He needs to focus on working out the deals, and do them in the order of priority he gets from McCarthy and McClay. This year, that means stop dragging out the Dak Prescott deal. Get it done, unless Prescott’s agent just refuses to play ball. It may require having to figure out how to meet their demands, but forget team-friendly and tying up too much cap space in one position. Once they get that one done, then Jones can exercise his parsimonious side. Just acknowledge that Prescott is the one player they have to have, and behave accordingly.

Will any of these happen? Probably not. There are ample reasons to doubt all of them, but there are also valid arguments for each as well.

 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49309

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Glad Cole is doing well... Buffalo just won the AFC East!!!

"How good is Cole Beasley?  Beasley had a 100-yard game of his own in this one (today), constantly flashing open and providing an outlet for Allen. He went over 900 yards for the season and set a new career mark for catches in a season. He’s now at 79 catches for the year. "

 

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Vic Mackey

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Giants and Eagles remain. If Colt plays for the Giants, that should be a win. They are terrible. Eagles with Wentz would have been an easy win but now with Hurts, that could be another loss. Eagles now have life without Wentz. Fuck Wentz. That scrub is done in Philly. Even the Eagles fans have turned on that bum. Yet again the backup comes in and they gain new life.

This was always the worst case scenario. Winning meaningless games that won't amount to shit. Either you bottom out or make the playoffs. The in between is the worst.

 

 

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Drew

Drew 2498

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I mean it sucks they won't have a top 5 pick, but honestly look at the draft this year.  It's SUPER weak at the top if you don't need a QB(I know some of you do).

If this was 2016 and you had 2 QB's, Bosa, Ramsey and Zeke all in the top 5 it would be much worse. But honestly the best defensive player on the board is probably a LB.  The best OL would have been the 3rd best last year and some don't even think he's the best OL this year either, and the actual best players to draft look like WR's, TE's, and RB's.  

They honestly will probably get a decent player at 9-13 as they would 4-6 at this point.

Now if they end up at 19 I don't know...but them finding a way to win the division would probably be better for the team long term as they'll be better with a healthy Dak/OL and spend their draft picks on D.

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LTtxfan

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3 hours ago, Drew said:

I mean it sucks they won't have a top 5 pick, but honestly look at the draft this year.  It's SUPER weak at the top if you don't need a QB(I know some of you do).  They honestly will probably get a decent player at 9-13 as they would 4-6 at this point.    If this was 2016 and you had 2 QB's, Bosa, Ramsey and Zeke all in the top 5 it would be much worse. But honestly the best defensive player on the board is probably a LB.  The best OL would have been the 3rd best last year and some don't even think he's the best OL this year either, and the actual best players to draft look like WR's, TE's, and RB's. 

 

Lose their last two games (Eagles, @Giants) and the Cowboys  end up no worse than pick #7...   🙏🙏🙏  

 

 

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Catdaddyhorn

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https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/lists/financial-ramifications-if-cowboys-release-ezekiel-elliott-run-gamut/

Insightful article on all the cap ramifications of cutting Zeke. Including information on offset language which is something I rarely hear discussed when discussing cap issues. Mostly because this sort of information isn't typically available to the public until a player not only gets cut, but signs with another team

 

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Remaining Contract

Refresher.

Elliott had two years of control remaining on his deal when he held out prior to 2019. He had the fourth year of his rookie contract remaining, and the club had already placed the fifth-year option on him. Elliott signed a six-year extension for $90 million, and the length was always more about allowing the team to spread out the cap hit from the bonus across five seasons and to give the club the option to restructure base salary when they saw fit over the first three years of the deal.  Also, it allowed Elliott to claim the richest RB contract in NFL history.

So entering 2021, Elliott’s already made just over $28 million in cash from his new deal.

Thus far, only $17.2 million of that has been accounted for on the cap, leaving $10.8 million spread out from the 2021 through the 2024 seasons (in addition to each year’s base salary).

Elliott’s 2021 salary is already guaranteed; that’s $9.6 million. The catch is, Elliott’s 2022 salary ($12.4 million) becomes guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2021 league year.

That is the extent of the guaranteed money in his deal, which is why I’ve always referred to his deal as a five-year deal in total, that the club could get out of following the 2022 season if they so choose.

Can they escape sooner? Yes. Is it wise? That’s what is up for debate.

Sunk Cost (Fallacy) vs Relevant Cost

A sunk cost refers to money that has already been spent and which cannot be recovered. Relevant costs are future costs that have yet to be incurred. Shout out to the Econ department at Hampton University. I wish I paid better attention, profs.

The prevalent thinking most have about keeping players who are believed to be beyond their value is centered around the sunk cost fallacy which describes a tendency to follow through on an endeavor due to already investing time, effort or money in it, whether or not the current costs outweigh the benefits.

How does one properly differentiate between the two when it comes to playing out guaranteed money?

The Cowboys have guaranteed paying Ezekiel Elliott $37.7 million through the end of the 2021 season. That money is accounted for; a sunk cost. He has a $12.4 million guarantee for 2022 if he’s on the roster in 2021; that’s a relevant cost. It’s not as easy as saying “avoid the $12.4 million relevant costs” because to do so means to not get any ROI from 25% of that $37.7 million sunk cost.

It’s gone, yes, but you still can reap the benefit of that investment. It’s more complicated then throwing good money after bad.

Cost to Cut

Sturm proposes the Cowboys should cut bait and release Elliott early in the 2021 league year. Again, his 2022 base salary guarantees on the fifth day.

There are two choices to do so, as an outright cut and as a “June 1” cut, which would allow the team to spread the costs over two season’s caps.

Scenario 1: Outright Cut

The Cowboys would still pay Elliott his $9.6 million salary in 2021.

There may be offset language, we have to deal with that separately below.

The Cowboys would still have the $4.1 million of bonus proration for 2021 sitting on the cap.

The Cowboys would avoid Elliott’s $12.4 million base salary in 2022.

The Cowboys would absorb the remaining prorations from 2022 through 2024 onto the 2021 cap in the amount of $10.8 million

Cutting Elliott outright in 2021 would cost the Cowboys $10.8 million of additional cap space, $24.5 million total, to not have him play for them in 2021.

All future cap hits are done.

Scenario 2: June 1 Cut

The Cowboys would pay Elliott his $9.6 million salary in 2021.

The Cowboys would still have the $4.1 million of bonus proration for 2021 sitting on the cap.

The Cowboys would see zero financial relief in 2021.

The Cowboys would avoid Elliott’s $12.4 million base salary in 2022.

The Cowboys would still have the $4.1 million of bonus proration sitting on the 2022 cap.

The Cowboys would absorb the remaining $6.7 million of prorated cap hits from 2023 and 2024 onto the 2022 cap.

Does it make sense to cut him?

So that was a lot of bullet points and numbers, let’s streamline this thing.

Dallas would have $24.5 million in dead money from releasing Elliott that would play out either all in 2021, or with $13.7 million in 2021 and another $10.8 million in 2022.

Seeing how 2021 cap is going down (COVID), possibly to as low as $175 million, the Cowboys are absolutely not in position to do Option 1. They have to figure out how to shave money off the books, not add to it while subtracting a player. Even if they work out a long-term agreement with QB Dak Prescott and don’t have to tag him again for $36.9 million this go round, that extra $10.8 million is way too much to consider.

What about June 1?

OK, so here’s the rub. If the Cowboys released Elliott as a June 1 cut, there’d be no difference in their cap for 2021, but they would save $5.7 million on the 2022 cap.

Elliott’s replacement in 2021 would negate whatever offset saving there would be. His replacement in 2022 would negate $0.7 million of the $5.7 million.

It comes down to, is it better for the Cowboys to have two seasons of Elliott, or an additional $5 million of space in 2022 and $6.7 million in space in 2023?

That’s the tradeoff. Release him prior to 2021 to get savings in 2022 and 2023.

For comparison purposes, the Cowboys have around $5 million of dead money on the cap in 2020 for Everson Griffen and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

he Offset Salary conundrum

Offset clauses are one of the big mysteries of NFL contracts because it varies from one contract to another and are never revealed publicly in advance of a player being released.

Basically they say that if a player has guaranteed money, the amount the releasing team is on the hook to pay is reduced, or offset, by whatever that player makes in a new deal.

This is the fundamental piece in whether Dallas could consider releasing Elliott.

The amount a player gets paid in his first year of a deal with a new club, is the amount that is offset.

Say the Cowboys release Elliott on Day 3 of 2021. If he signs with Washington (you know they’d be in on him) on a one-year deal, he could sign for the league minimum ($990,000) an Dallas would pay him the remaining $8.61 million.

But if Elliott, at Age 26, signed a multiyear deal somewhere else, then the all of the first-year compensation is included in the offset. If he signed a 3-year, $25 million deal with a $9 million signing bonus, then the Cowboys would be off the hook for his entire base salary in that situation, even if his salary was only $990,000.

While one cannot speak for Elliott, knowing he’d be released at the start of free agency and the fact he sat out for long-term security, it’s a reasonable consideration if Dallas released him he’d look for a long-term deal and making sure the Cowboys suffered would not be the foremost thing on his agenda of finding a new home.

It seems at least plausible Dallas could make this move IF there was offset language included in his deal.

Full disclosure, I am not 100% certain of how the timing of the cap credits are doled out in an offset scenario, but it would seem logical the space frees up once a deal with a new team is secured.

Release options IF offsets are possible

So let’s run through the options if Dallas could shave off the majority of his 2021 base salary.

Pre-June 1st Cut

Dallas has $4.1 million of 2021 bonus allocation stay on the cap, but theoretically eliminates Elliott’s $9.6 million base salary. The unallocated amount from his bonuses accelerate onto the 2021 cap to the tune of an additional $10.8 million, totaling $15.9 million.

The Cowboys pay an additional $1.2 million to not have Elliott on the team in 2021 and have no costs associated with his deal in 2022 and beyond.

Post-June 1st Cut

Again, under the theoretical that Elliott signs a deal that eliminates the Cowboys’ responsibility for paying any of his 2021 salary…

The Cowboys avoid paying Elliott’s $9.6 million in base salary, thus resulting in $9.6 million in cap savings in 2021. The $4.1 million proration amount remains on the cap.

The timing of the release eliminates the Cowboys from having to guarantee Elliott’s $12.4 million in 2022 base salary. His 2022, 2023 and 2024 proration now sit on the 2022 cap, costing $10.8 million in dead money, but giving them $5.7 million in additional room.

Summary

Again, putting aside my personal belief that this is a better team in 2021 with Elliott as RB1, the discussion here is about what options the Cowboys have if they do not believe that to be the case.

If there are no offset scenarios as detailed above, I don’t think it’s a wise business decision to part ways with Elliott for cap relief that doesn’t help in the season when it’s needed most.

The 2021 cap is going to plummet — we’ve already discussed how that could play a role in the futures of linebacker Jaylon Smith and wide receiver Amari Cooper — and unless a move is helping a team manage that, than it seems pretty counter productive. If one thinks Elliott is holding the offense back (I don’t, others may), then that conversation changes a bit.

If there are offset scenarios where releasing Elliott could result in an abundance of immediate cap space, that conversation changes even more. If that were the case, and Dallas chose to part with the face of their franchise, then discussions about the savviness of the front office in their negotiations probably has to take on a different spin.

 

Cost to Cut

Sturm proposes the Cowboys should cut bait and release Elliott early in the 2021 league year. Again, his 2022 base salary guarantees on the fifth day.

There are two choices to do so, as an outright cut and as a “June 1” cut, which would allow the team to spread the costs over two season’s caps.

Scenario 1: Outright Cut

The Cowboys would still pay Elliott his $9.6 million salary in 2021.

There may be offset language, we have to deal with that separately below.

The Cowboys would still have the $4.1 million of bonus proration for 2021 sitting on the cap.

The Cowboys would avoid Elliott’s $12.4 million base salary in 2022.

The Cowboys would absorb the remaining prorations from 2022 through 2024 onto the 2021 cap in the amount of $10.8 million

Cutting Elliott outright in 2021 would cost the Cowboys $10.8 million of additional cap space, $24.5 million total, to not have him play for them in 2021.

All future cap hits are done.

Scenario 2: June 1 Cut

The Cowboys would pay Elliott his $9.6 million salary in 2021.

The Cowboys would still have the $4.1 million of bonus proration for 2021 sitting on the cap.

The Cowboys would see zero financial relief in 2021.

The Cowboys would avoid Elliott’s $12.4 million base salary in 2022.

The Cowboys would still have the $4.1 million of bonus proration sitting on the 2022 cap.

The Cowboys would absorb the remaining $6.7 million of prorated cap hits from 2023 and 2024 onto the 2022 cap.

Does it make sense to cut him?

So that was a lot of bullet points and numbers, let’s streamline this thing.

Dallas would have $24.5 million in dead money from releasing Elliott that would play out either all in 2021, or with $13.7 million in 2021 and another $10.8 million in 2022.

Seeing how 2021 cap is going down (COVID), possibly to as low as $175 million, the Cowboys are absolutely not in position to do Option 1. They have to figure out how to shave money off the books, not add to it while subtracting a player. Even if they work out a long-term agreement with QB Dak Prescott and don’t have to tag him again for $36.9 million this go round, that extra $10.8 million is way too much to consider.

What about June 1?

OK, so here’s the rub. If the Cowboys released Elliott as a June 1 cut, there’d be no difference in their cap for 2021, but they would save $5.7 million on the 2022 cap.

Elliott’s replacement in 2021 would negate whatever offset saving there would be. His replacement in 2022 would negate $0.7 million of the $5.7 million.

It comes down to, is it better for the Cowboys to have two seasons of Elliott, or an additional $5 million of space in 2022 and $6.7 million in space in 2023?

That’s the tradeoff. Release him prior to 2021 to get savings in 2022 and 2023.

For comparison purposes, the Cowboys have around $5 million of dead money on the cap in 2020 for Everson Griffen and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

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Patrick Bateman

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Offset language wouldn't really help the Cowboys that much.  Teams know if there's this language as do the agents and therefore tend to sign vet min deals or near minimums.  Look at Bell.  That's who Zeke would likely be or really Gurley if he got cut.  Gurley just lost his starting job to some guy name Ito Smith.  Bell was backup to a rookie after he forced himself out.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49309

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1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Offset language wouldn't really help the Cowboys that much.  Teams know if there's this language as do the agents and therefore tend to sign vet min deals or near minimums.  Look at Bell.  That's who Zeke would likely be or really Gurley if he got cut.  Gurley just lost his starting job to some guy name Ito Smith.  Bell was backup to a rookie after he forced himself out.

Yeah, most of the stuff I've seen predicts Zeke will be back with Dallas for 2021 Season due to expected lower 2021 salary cap and money needed for Dak...

May be some point after 2021 season where the Cowboys may not bring Zeke back for 2022 if results don't improve for Zeke...

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Patrick Bateman

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24 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, most of the stuff I've seen predicts Zeke will be back with Dallas for 2021 Season due to expected lower 2021 salary cap and money needed for Dak...

May be some point after 2021 season where the Cowboys may not bring Zeke back for 2022 if results don't improve for Zeke...

I think this is the most likely course of action.  Everyone gets a freebie because of Dak and the entire OL being out and although I think still is a very good instinctual runner, there's no doubt he's lost some juice.  Again, drafting him was incredibly stupid... then and now and it's led to a bevy of mistakes because the Jones' are too emotional and dumb for their own doing.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3918

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3 hours ago, youdunnf'dup said:

Is Jerry just losing his mind, or is he actually looking himself in the mirror and saying changes need to be made. Has to be the former, right? 
 

 

No.  He does this when they have a bad season.  Says he's shocked and he has to do better because it's not good enough, blah, blah, blah.  But he won't make any real changes.  He won't fire himself.  He won't remove Stephen.  He's all fucking talk.  Great..... you admit you sucked.  But because he won't do anything about it, it make him not only as a failure as a GM but an owner, from a football sense.  He's been able to monetize the organization well, but who gives a shit at that as a fan.  He's a loser who's getting richer off a dumb fandom.

 

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3918

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3 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Zeke the bum will be on the team one more season then cut most likely.

Would agree I don't see a Jalen Ramsey or Bosa brother at the top of the draft. Think Tyron Smith is almost done so would say best OT or defensive player.

No other OT is really considered a no doubt, top 10 talent.  Maybe someone pops in offseason work, but it's mostly QBs, WRs, CBs, and a few other edge guys or Micah Parsons, who could be great, but will take time.  Maybe Slater from NW at OT, but some project him as a guard.

 

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