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lordy i hope there are tapes (woodward book/tapes)

hayden_horn

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89445

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

You are mistaking that 63m as being Trump’s base. It isn’t. There will be a substantial number of people in that group either vote Biden or stay home. Also third party voters should be way down, and the 6% that were libertarian or Green Party voters should break mostly for Biden

1234.  Hillary ain’t running this time around, and Trump hasn’t been able to turn Kamala into Hillary.    Trump has given plenty of the more moderate voters a lot to consider, and that’s before the Woodward’s tapes hit widespread play.    

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The Dog

The Dog 43805

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Posted

I think this revelation is a lot different from anything before and a lot more serious.  

Will it affect his hard core supporters? Of course not - even Nixon had his defenders when he resigned. There's always that 30% or so who are going to support their party through thick and thin. It's larger for Trump because he's delivered on ALL of his promises to the conservative base of the Republican party. He's lowered taxes. He's gone hard on immigration. He's started building the wall. He's nominated two very conservative supreme court justices (well, one really conservative one at least).

And in the process, he's constantly taunting and picking fights with what the far right considers to be a biased and unfair mainstream media who is "out to get them". He's their hero.

What's different about this revelation and these tapes?

IMHO, for the first time we have him admitting that he was telling his base one thing that has been driving their behavior and decisions (no masks, continue as normal, open up schools, etc.) yet is now ON TAPE saying otherwise and admitting that he knew way back in JANUARY that this thing was much deadlier and that he knew HOW IT WAS TRANSMITTED. 

Now will it have a significant impact on his base? No, of course not. That's not a reasonable expectation. But will some who were strong supporters start to have second thoughts? You bet. They won't vote for the other guy, but they may wall stay home or just skip the top line. It all depends on how many hear Trump admitting it and how they process it. 

I don't think we'll know the real impact until after Sunday when the 60 Minutes interview is aired. I bet the ratings for that thing will be "YUGE". 

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Gap03

Gap03 3286

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

And the cult is about 20%. Don’t be such a pussy

I'd love to believe that, but, ahem, ...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

As miserable a piece of shit as Trump has been over the last 4 years, his approval ratings have never been below 36.4%, and even throughout his debacle of a COVID response, the floor has gotten higher (40% for 2020).  The additional 15-20% may not be full-on cult members, but they sure act like it.

 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27434

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Skipper said:

Whether his supporters can win him the election or not is TBD.  He only has majority support in 1 demographic.  Whites without a college degree.  How many in that category do you think sit down on a Sunday night to watch 60 minutes?  Those with an actual education that support Trump know what he is but will do whatever mental gymnastics necessary to convince themselves Trump is necessary to support whatever ideal is most important to them (lower taxes, "law and order", conservative supreme court justices, etc.").  I just don't think there are that many people that can possibly be swayed one way or the other at this point.

I am seeing people changing their minds on Facebook as this shit comes out. It’s anecdotal but it’s people who firmly fit in trumps key demographic saying fuck  Trump and Trump’s a liar etc. especially after the Atlantic article. Some Of their friends and family members are actually threatening to unfriend them over it but others are asking for more info and others who are usually obnoxiously posting pro trump shit have gone radio silent. 
 

Keep up the pressure, maybe get some dirt out on Barr. 
 

Get his tax returns out and he’s toast

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27434

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3 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

I'd love to believe that, but, ahem, ...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

As miserable a piece of shit as Trump has been over the last 4 years, his approval ratings have never been below 36.4%, and even throughout his debacle of a COVID response, the floor has gotten higher (40% for 2020).  The additional 15-20% may not be full-on cult members, but they sure act like it.

 

No they don’t act like full on cult members. That’s delusional partisan bullshit where you want to demonize groups of people who aren’t 100% with you. Pull them into your camp or push them into the enemy’s. Fuck that

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High Plains Drifter

High Plains Drifter 10977

Posted
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34 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I had a family member tell me that Trump is rich and doesn't need the job, but he does it because he cares. It's almost impossible to believe, but tens of millions of people think this. 

 

35 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

That's where I am.  At this point we have to gut it out until Nov 3rd, when we find out:

  • If the Blue Wave is stronger than Trump's election interference and
  • if the Blue Wave takes the Senate

Even if the first one doesn't happen, if the latter happens we better be looking at President Pelosi by March of I'm going to be one pissed off hombre.

 

Don't you need 67 senate votes to remove?

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High Plains Drifter

High Plains Drifter 10977

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7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I am seeing people changing their minds on Facebook as this shit comes out. It’s anecdotal but it’s people who firmly fit in trumps key demographic saying fuck  Trump and Trump’s a liar etc. especially after the Atlantic article. Some Of their friends and family members are actually threatening to unfriend them over it but others are asking for more info and others who are usually obnoxiously posting pro trump shit have gone radio silent. 
 

Keep up the pressure, maybe get some dirt out on Barr. 
 

Get his tax returns out and he’s toast

 

I kind of agree. Its like erosion. You don't notice it, until its a lot. Every shit storm is another few specks of dirt washing away.
Or a death by a thousand cuts. Or something.

 

Or maybe I'm just day drunk because the wife is actually at the office for the first time in 6 months.

 

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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

I am seeing people changing their minds on Facebook as this shit comes out. It’s anecdotal but it’s people who firmly fit in trumps key demographic saying fuck  Trump and Trump’s a liar etc. especially after the Atlantic article. Some Of their friends and family members are actually threatening to unfriend them over it but others are asking for more info and others who are usually obnoxiously posting pro trump shit have gone radio silent. 
 

Keep up the pressure, maybe get some dirt out on Barr. 
 

Get his tax returns out and he’s toast

Look I hope so. I'm just certainly not seeing it anecdotally.   People I know that will vote for Trump are either (i) redneck uneducated MAGA's, (ii) fox news brainwashed old's or (iii) otherwise sane and educated, strongly dislike Trump, but have convinced themselves that whatever policy they care about that he is likely to support is the most important thing to them.  Category (I) and (ii) are lost causes.  Period.  Trust me, most of my wife's family falls into those categories and there is no turning back.  I do think he's lost a lot of support in category (iii) from '16 to '20.  But at this point everyone in that category knows what Trump is.  If they haven't already found their personal deal breaker I don't think this is going to be it.

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Goredho

Goredho 17348

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Fuck his base. His base cannot win him this election. There are millions of people who will either watch the 60 minutes episode or will see clips on social media. Many will change their minds about him. He’s already at historically low approval rating for a president seeking re-election. I really think some of y’all have learned helplessness after the last 4 years 

Or maybe you actually believe in reverse jinxes?

His base is a problem because he starts with 40% no matter what.  He could have engineered the coronavirus, unleashed it to target poor minorities and oops, had it kill off the olds in his base and still not lose any of his voters that are still alive.  He only needs to keep the base under his spell and then "work creatively" to suppress, toss out, have hacked or otherwise suppress/change votes to make up a relatively small difference.  10% for the popular vote and much less than that for an electoral college win if the right areas can be targeted.  That's exactly the track we see him taking with coronavirus denial, manufactured civil war, election infrastructure meddling, etc...  And we know Russia is going to try to help that effort, whether or not it is with Trump's explicit knowledge and cooperation.

Will it work?  Neither of us know.  But that fucker is going to try his damnedest to make it happen.  I'll adopt your attitude when I know his attempts have failed and he's in our rearview mirror.

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28711

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14 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It all started with that motherfucker Robin Leach celebrating the Rich & Famous (including the early Trump deification) that led to Paris Hilton and then to the fucking Kardashians to today's gotdam internet influencers.

On a parallel media path, we started with the Real World that led to Survivor and then to teh Donald's Apprentice and now whatever the fuck "reality teevee" shows people watch.

Somewhere those two streams, both involving Trump, crossed and we've landed in this hellhole that we're in now. 

The National Enquirer fits in there too. A lot of my early exposure to Trump was because he was in the tabloids. I never read the tabloids, I just had a negative impression of him because, along with his self-promoting buffoonery, (Duh, look at me! I built a skyscraper in New York and PUT MY NAME ON IT!! I'M SO GREAT!!), he was tabloid fodder. I had no idea until his campaign that he was in league with the Enquirer and that was all part of his "image" building. And now the Fox News 24-hr tabloid network is part of his propaganda machine. The tabloid model now dominates the ratings. 

It's all connected. Don't even get me started on the televangelists. It's all bullshit, top-to-bottom and side-to-side. 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28711

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27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not sure you got the order correct, but a huge tailwind in our cultural decline was talk show mania (Phil Donahue, Sally Jesse Raphael, Jerry Springer, Montel Williams, Maury Povich, Oprah, Dr. Phil, Jenny Jones, Geraldo Rivera, Ricki Lake, etc.).  They put "normal" trashy Americans on TV and exploited them for entertainment value.  It resonated with way too many people and was a precursor to the "look at me" narcissism of modern Facebook, Instagram, et al.

Phil Donahue doesn't belong on that list. 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27434

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Fuck it y’all have convinced me. 42% of the people in this country are hard core trump death cultists. Biden is NOT going to win the popular vote by 7M, and Trump is going to flip Minnesota and Nevada and hold onto Florida and Pennsylvania to win the EC

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31276

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15 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's not gonna happen before 11/3.

Even if it did, it won't be conclusive enough to shift much.  If they are facially "bad," it will just be dismissed as "strategic tax avoidance," much like his bankruptcies are dismissed as "strategically using the law."

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28711

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6 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Fuck it y’all have convinced me. 42% of the people in this country are hard core trump death cultists. Biden is NOT going to win the popular vote by 7M, and Trump is going to flip Minnesota and Nevada and hold onto Florida and Pennsylvania to win the EC

You and David Dennison cancel each other out. 

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BLKNSTY

BLKNSTY 289

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Fuck it y’all have convinced me. 42% of the people in this country are hard core trump death cultists. Biden is NOT going to win the popular vote by 7M, and Trump is going to flip Minnesota and Nevada and hold onto Florida and Pennsylvania to win the EC

I think it's more like 38% to 40%. I think Biden wins the popular vote by ~5-6M but Trump flips MN and holds onto FL, PA, and NC for the win. AZ goes Blue and NV stays Blue. Not sure if that gets him to 270 but I'm like 70% certain Trump wins. I truly and honestly believe Trump wins because (a) every single fucker I personally know who voted for him in 2016 will do so again in 2020 and (b) the polling stations and mail-in ballot fuckery is pretty widespread (every single state with an R legislature and/or R governor has literally zero oversight) and the dems have provided a pretty lackluster response on that front. #teambrisket

I will say the military comments and woodward tapes brought down my confidence level from 75% to 70% so we got that goin for us.

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bolverk

bolverk 29399

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

The National Enquirer fits in there too. A lot of my early exposure to Trump was because he was in the tabloids. I never read the tabloids, I just had a negative impression of him because, along with his self-promoting buffoonery, (Duh, look at me! I built a skyscraper in New York and PUT MY NAME ON IT!! I'M SO GREAT!!), he was tabloid fodder. I had no idea until his campaign that he was in league with the Enquirer and that was all part of his "image" building. And now the Fox News 24-hr tabloid network is part of his propaganda machine. The tabloid model now dominates the ratings. 

It's all connected. Don't even get me started on the televangelists. It's all bullshit, top-to-bottom and side-to-side. 

Your comment about FOX being a tabloid network is spot on. It's modeled precisely on that of the tabloids newspapers which is, I think, where Murdoch got his start.

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LurkingHorn

LurkingHorn 1045

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18 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

I think it's more like 38% to 40%. I think Biden wins the popular vote by ~5-6M but Trump flips MN and holds onto FL, PA, and NC for the win. AZ goes Blue and NV stays Blue. Not sure if that gets him to 270 but I'm like 70% certain Trump wins. I truly and honestly believe Trump wins because (a) every single fucker I personally know who voted for him in 2016 will do so again in 2020 and (b) the polling stations and mail-in ballot fuckery is pretty widespread (every single state with an R legislature and/or R governor has literally zero oversight) and the dems have provided a pretty lackluster response on that front. #teambrisket

I will say the military comments and woodward tapes brought down my confidence level from 75% to 70% so we got that goin for us.

This doesn't jive with reality of the situation right now unless you think the polling is way off. 

Also, if Biden wins the popular vote by 5-6 million, that would basically double the amount Hillary won by and mean Biden has anywhere from 74-89% chance of winning. That's also according to Silver. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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Posted



I think it's more like 38% to 40%. I think Biden wins the popular vote by ~5-6M but Trump flips MN and holds onto FL, PA, and NC for the win. AZ goes Blue and NV stays Blue. Not sure if that gets him to 270 but I'm like 70% certain Trump wins. I truly and honestly believe Trump wins because (a) every single fucker I personally know who voted for him in 2016 will do so again in 2020 and (b) the polling stations and mail-in ballot fuckery is pretty widespread (every single state with an R legislature and/or R governor has literally zero oversight) and the dems have provided a pretty lackluster response on that front. #teambrisket
I will say the military comments and woodward tapes brought down my confidence level from 75% to 70% so we got that goin for us.


Trump will not get within five points in Minnesota.

Of course, absent that, your scenario is a 269-269 tie (assuming WI flips since you didn't include it as a hold). Then the real fun begins.
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted (edited)

Based on years of polling data the hardcore cult is somewhere around 25% and I measure it by likely voters enthusiastically voting for Trump. You can also use the “very favorable” or “strongly approve” Trump numbers.  

The other Trump voters are made up of never-democrat GOP people and 401k conservatives that don’t give a shit about anything beyond their TDAmeritrade accounts. 
 

BDEAD86A_6AE0_4E92_B5AA_9AA132689E0A_IMG

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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Posted
Which is why this isn't going to move the needle nearly as much as most on this thread think it will. Or at all.
Nope. Not at all. None of this well. Trump will get his 45-46 percent of the popular vote. The rest of us have to show up and make sure that's not enough.
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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10763

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

He’s already at historically low approval rating for a president seeking re-election. I really think some of y’all have learned helplessness after the last 4 years.

Be afraid.  Fear.  And Loathing.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/311825/presidential-job-approval-related-reelection-historically.aspx

He can very easily win this with Texas, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio or Michigan.

Easily.

Electoral College out front shoulda toldya.

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27434

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19 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

It has to be much higher.  Nothing else can explain his approval rating and if the polls are to be believed his current prospects.

I'm sticking with my 37% number.

Approval rating does not equate to cult membership imo. I guess if you like drama and demonizing folks you don’t agree with it does. 
 

even if it is 42% that’s close to his ceiling and that is a fuck stomping in the popular vote even if the entirety of the 42% turn out for him.  IMO he will be under 40% by Election Day and I don’t believe anyone running for re-election has won with <40% approval. 
 

Trump basically has one path to victory through the EC and it is a very long shot

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45558

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7 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

This.  Neither does Harpo.  Springer, Williams, Rivera, Dr. Phil, Judge Judy, that's the shit in the 90s that glorified stupidity and started the exploitainment slide.

You obviously didn't watch Donahue late in his run.  He was pulled toward the extreme that he helped create.  I never paid attention to Oprah, so I have no idea there.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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1 hour ago, BLKNSTY said:

I think it's more like 38% to 40%. I think Biden wins the popular vote by ~5-6M but Trump flips MN and holds onto FL, PA, and NC for the win. AZ goes Blue and NV stays Blue. Not sure if that gets him to 270 but I'm like 70% certain Trump wins. I truly and honestly believe Trump wins because (a) every single fucker I personally know who voted for him in 2016 will do so again in 2020 and (b) the polling stations and mail-in ballot fuckery is pretty widespread (every single state with an R legislature and/or R governor has literally zero oversight) and the dems have provided a pretty lackluster response on that front. #teambrisket

I will say the military comments and woodward tapes brought down my confidence level from 75% to 70% so we got that goin for us.

You don’t know how to count electoral votes but you’re 70 percent sure trump is gonna win? 
 

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Red Five

Red Five 40664

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Posted
1 minute ago, kevwun said:

Surely he didn't talk about the Ukraine or Russia?  I mean no one can be that stupid and still remember to breathe.

"I tried to bribe Ukraine but it didn't work! Hopefully Russia wins the election for me again like they did in 2016!". 

Would it surprise you?

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MC Fresh Breath

MC Fresh Breath 4074

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

decades of newspeak brainwashing.  that's my mom, and my brother.   if i had a dollar for every time over the past 30 years i was told "you don't know what the truth is".

My parents much the same, but somewhere around W's term is where we all agreed that if we didn't discuss politics it would help keep us all in touch.  They've found their "truth" in Rush Limbaugh and Fox News and the 700 Club (Pat Robertson).  That's it, no point in talking further, really. 

 

Edited by MC Fresh Breath
misplaced rambling.
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45495

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Agreed.  And that's really, really, really fucking hard.

So we have to fight like hell, every damned step of the way.  And keep fighting, no matter what.  I don't like our odds, but fuck it, you know, that's why they play the games.

55 days?  Cause after that, I'm done.  I've got a life to live and it won't be in this country, if necessary.

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