Deion Sanders "Coach Prime" Now At Colorado

[closetojumping 62870]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca said:

I've got my opinion, you've got yours.  And yes, the Springs and rural areas have their share of racist idiots (lots of overlap with racism and voting R, btw).  Texas has a lot more.

 

If you take it further into the Cloak Room, which you are overtly doing with this post, it's neg time and we can burn the whole fucking thread to the ground. There are a great many of us who have absolutely no interest in being in the middle of a "my side is better than your side" finger pointing contest unless it is sports related. 

[Chewbacca 7785]

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If you take it further into the Cloak Room, which you are overtly doing with this post, it's neg time and we can burn the whole fucking thread to the ground. There are a great many of us who have absolutely no interest in being in the middle of a "my side is better than your side" finger pointing contest unless it is sports related. 

As there is no way to separate the two, I'll drop the subject if others will.  It all stems from what I think Prime will do in the future and why, but keeping politics out of it completely is likely impossible so I'll step away from this one.

That said, I'm not the one that brought politics into it.  That would be @TreatyOak posting Boebert up above.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Chewbacca

[LTbear 4171]

4 hours ago, 'stache said:

 

The Rhule comment was nothing, and yeah, it's a part of Deion's approach that I find really bothersome. And yeah, coaches can manufacture bulletin board material in the locker room (I've always doubted its effectiveness), but rarely do so publicly. The tweet is perfect, he'll find some nonsense to make personal. 

Meh. If it motivates players, I'm fine with it. 

[closetojumping 62870]

10 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

As there is no way to separate the two, I'll drop the subject if others will.  It all stems from what I think Prime will do in the future and why, but keeping politics out of it completely is likely impossible so I'll step away from this one.

That said, I'm not the one that brought politics into it.  That would be @TreatyOak posting Boebert up above.

You've clearly proven that you can overlay a political agenda to anything with your takes in this thread, so, yeah, he that is good with a hammer sees everything as a nail and such. No kidding you can't decouple politics and Deion. I think many of us can and appreciate the efforts to focus on the guy, his program, their results, and the sports interactions and data that follow. 

As to TreatyOak starting it, yeah, so? He'd get run over by everyone too, I presume. As to Boebert, I can happily say that I only know the name because of the random references I see on Surly when politics spill over. When y'all clowns start arguing about which side has the nuttier or shittier politicians, things get really, really boring, really quickly. 

Honestly, something far more interesting would be seeing anyone's POV on the match-up this weekend, thoughts on CSU, what the line is doing, what national pundits are saying about the game, what the injury status is for either team, etc. It's not like there isn't a ton of meat on the bone for the subject matter so that it's now necessary to cess pool this thread into cloakiness. 

[Chewbacca 7785]

Just now, closetojumping said:

You've clearly proven that you can overlay a political agenda to anything with your takes in this thread, so, yeah, he that is good with a hammer sees everything as a nail and such. No kidding you can't decouple politics and Deion. I think many of us can and appreciate the efforts to focus on the guy, his program, their results, and the sports interactions and data that follow. 

As to TreatyOak starting it, yeah, so? He'd get run over by everyone too, I presume. As to Boebert, I can happily say that I only know the name because of the random references I see on Surly when politics spill over. When y'all clowns start arguing about which side has the nuttier or shittier politicians, things get really, really boring, really quickly. 

Honestly, something far more interesting would be seeing anyone's POV on the match-up this weekend, thoughts on CSU, what the line is doing, what national pundits are saying about the game, what the injury status is for either team, etc. It's not like there isn't a ton of meat on the bone for the subject matter so that it's now necessary to cess pool this thread into cloakiness. 

Easy, scooter.  You'll pop a blood vessel.

[Sawbonz 27589]

[closetohumping 17470]

[Hank_Hill 18894]

1 hour ago, LTbear said:

Meh. If it motivates players, I'm fine with it. 

-Art Briles 

[msucolt45 4074]

 

I was a Spectrum “casualty” for the weekend and had to purchase Sling TV so I could watch. I guess I still counted, but imagine the ratings if there wasn’t the Disney dispute.

Hook’em!!!

[Chewbacca 7785]

40 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

He regularly ranks his kids.  I think it's hilarious.  His kids are all close to him and seem to love him.  

[LTbear 4171]

30 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

-Art Briles 

Feel free to explain how you pulled that out of your ass. What in the world is the relation of Deion to Briles?

[closetohumping 17470]

Apparently a lot of random celebs are showing up to watch practice these days.  Ramndom?  Looking at you Spencer dinwiddie 

[cmontexas 3282]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2023/09/14/deion-sanders-jay-norvell-colorado-hat-glasses/70849658007/

Norvell decides to help motivate the Buffs with an asinine, boomer level press conference taking shots at Deion

[NoName 16406]

9 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2023/09/14/deion-sanders-jay-norvell-colorado-hat-glasses/70849658007/

Norvell decides to help motivate the Buffs with an asinine, boomer level press conference taking shots at Deion

Quote

Colorado State head football coach Jay Norvell appeared to criticize Deion Sanders Wednesday when he said on his weekly coach's show that he takes his hat and glasses off when he talks to "grown-ups" because that’s what his mother taught him.

+

Quote

"They’re not gonna like us, no matter what we say or do," Norvell said at the show, which is hosted by a local restaurant. "It doesn’t matter. OK, so let’s go up there and play. That’s just how I feel about it. I don’t mean to take over the show. I’m just tired of it. I mean, I’m tired of all that stuff. And I know everybody else is too. So let’s go play."

they were already going to get the score run up on them, not like CU was going to pull their starters.

Edited September 14, 2023 by NoName

[MNLonghornFUKM 8821]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2023/09/14/deion-sanders-jay-norvell-colorado-hat-glasses/70849658007/
Norvell decides to help motivate the Buffs with an asinine, boomer level press conference taking shots at Deion

Another retread coach who’s had 14 jobs in 20 years




And no, jay…you’re not going up there. Fort Collins is north of Boulder

[MuellerHorn 4295]

2 hours ago, cmontexas said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2023/09/14/deion-sanders-jay-norvell-colorado-hat-glasses/70849658007/

Norvell decides to help motivate the Buffs with an asinine, boomer level press conference taking shots at Deion

What a dumbass. Coaches should know at this point that Deion is going to use any material possible (legitimate, or out of proportion) to light a fire under his team. They were already going to get crushed as @NoName said, but Norvell is completely foolish to do something like this - just an idiotic comment to make.

You said it perfectly, @cmontexas.

[Dbeasy 15092]

2 hours ago, cmontexas said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2023/09/14/deion-sanders-jay-norvell-colorado-hat-glasses/70849658007/

Norvell decides to help motivate the Buffs with an asinine, boomer level press conference taking shots at Deion

Ya! Those lame ass boomers, being respectful to others. Eff ‘em, yo!

[Texas Wahoo 3418]

23 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Another retread coach who’s had 14 jobs in 20 years




And no, jay…you’re not going up there. Fort Collins is north of Boulder

Does he count as a retread if he worked his way up to finally getting a chance as a head coach and has had some success doing it?

 

Either way, it's probably not a good idea to piss off Deon before their game, but I have no problem with it.  They are going to be underdogs anyway, might as well get as much media for the coach and program as you can for the week and see if you can't ruffle some feathers.  

[cmontexas 3282]

19 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Ya! Those lame ass boomers, being respectful to others. Eff ‘em, yo!

Norvell went on to complain about how no students know how to balance a checkbook anymore, and bragged about the progress his players were making on their cursive writing drills

Edited September 14, 2023 by cmontexas

[Pam Cummings 9662]

You know who sounds childish? A person that uses the term "grown up". The word you're looking for is adult. "Grown ups" are how kids refer to adults. Just saying.

[CooterBrown 18029]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

And no, jay…you’re not going up there. Fort Collins is north of Boulder

He's talking elevation.

 

['stache 21866]

48 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Does he count as a retread if he worked his way up to finally getting a chance as a head coach and has had some success doing it?

 

Either way, it's probably not a good idea to piss off Deon before their game, but I have no problem with it.  They are going to be underdogs anyway, might as well get as much media for the coach and program as you can for the week and see if you can't ruffle some feathers.  

I don't think it really matters, Deion will find offense regardless, and at some point I think if he continues going over the top using "haters" as motivation, it could backfire, or eventually stop working. I'm thinking Ted Lasso when they got so riled up they made mistakes all over the field. I only watched part of the first two games and as far as I can tell, and to Deion's credit, the players don't seem to be committing a lot of personal fouls out of anger, etc. So if it works, it works, but it's not a style I can say I like, and I can foresee a game where they make mistakes and act out. It'll be interesting to see how they handle their first loss, especially if they get blown out.

Edited September 14, 2023 by 'stache

[Tylerocks 2553]

Interested to see how they do in back-to-back games @ Oregon and at home for USC.

Should be good games.

[closetohumping 17470]

11 minutes ago, Tylerocks said:

Interested to see how they do in back-to-back games @ Oregon and at home for USC.

Should be good games.

Would be shocked if they won either.   I just hope they have enough juice to get to 6.  Sort of wish Cal was on the schedule. 

[closetojumping 62870]

58 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't think it really matters, Deion will find offense regardless, and at some point I think if he continues going over the top using "haters" as motivation, it could backfire, or eventually stop working. I'm thinking Ted Lasso when they got so riled up they made mistakes all over the field. I only watched part of the first two games and as far as I can tell, and to Deion's credit, the players don't seem to be committing a lot of personal fouls out of anger, etc. So if it works, it works, but it's not a style I can say I like, and I can foresee a game where they make mistakes and act out. It'll be interesting to see how they handle their first loss, especially if they get blown out.

We'll see where it goes, of course, but I don't see a team of shit talkers and prima donnas so far. They have shit to prove and they're proving it. They've gone far beyond my expectations already, but I don't think they've met theirs yet. With that kind of mentality, sure, maybe they snap if a far superior, at least from a depth perspective, Oregon team runs over them at home or something. Or maybe they just keep playing hard and trying to get better, knowing there are 8 more games behind that one. 

I've been touting the difficulty of the Pac 12 this year since the spring. Part of why I happily bet against CU winning 6 games and making a bowl was with that in mind (not the only reason, but their schedule played a big part). I'm now looking at the Pac 12 schedule and, while thinking it's even more difficult with CU and Wazzou playing, asking myself who all is going to underestimate CU and get knocked off by them. My hope is that if I am going to lose $1k, CU takes down a lazy and complacent and overhyped USC team in the process. 

Edited September 14, 2023 by closetojumping

[closetohumping 17470]

18 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

We'll see where it goes, of course, but I don't see a team of shit talkers and prima donnas so far. They have shit to prove and they're proving it. They've gone far beyond my expectations already, but I don't think they've met theirs yet. With that kind of mentality, sure, maybe they snap if a far superior, at least from a depth perspective, Oregon team runs over them at home or something. Or maybe they just keep playing hard and trying to get better, knowing their are 8 more games behind that one. 

I've been touting the difficulty of the Pac 12 this year since the spring. Part of why I happily bet against CU winning 6 games and making a bowl was with that in mind (not the only reason, but their schedule played a big part). I'm now looking at the Pac 12 schedule and, while thinking it's even more difficult with CU and Wazzou playing, asking myself who all is going to underestimate CU and get knocked off by them. My hope is that if I am going to lose $1k, CU takes down a lazy and complacent and overhyped USC team in the process. 

AS you know, we're on opposite sides this year, but I can see why people find Deion's act grating.  And that translates to hating his team as well.  I don't think they'll be underestimated at this point.

[66BUFF 2565]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Does he count as a retread if he worked his way up to finally getting a chance as a head coach and has had some success doing it?

 

Either way, it's probably not a good idea to piss off Deon before their game, but I have no problem with it.  They are going to be underdogs anyway, might as well get as much media for the coach and program as you can for the week and see if you can't ruffle some feathers.  

There is no I in team but there is an I in Deion.🙂

[closetojumping 62870]

23 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

AS you know, we're on opposite sides this year, but I can see why people find Deion's act grating.  And that translates to hating his team as well.  I don't think they'll be underestimated at this point.

Maybe. I see it more like an Edward Longshanks underestimates William Wallace kind of thing. Yeah, they may intellectually know that CU is a threat, but do they really understand that? I could see any or all of the top teams doing that. Now, Arizona State and Stanford? Those hapless programs should be taking everyone seriously.

[Sawbonz 27589]

I know it’s way early and attrition could really hurt them, but how many games will they be more than a one score underdog?

 

USC

Oregon

Utah w a healthy Rising?

who else?

[HtownHorn 14779]

1 hour ago, Tylerocks said:

Interested to see how they do in back-to-back games @ Oregon and at home for USC.

Should be good games.

Deion will probably take offense to his team getting blown out in both games.

[Lidig8r 1874]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Does he count as a retread if he worked his way up to finally getting a chance as a head coach and has had some success doing it?

 

 

You shut your dirty whore mouth!!! (with some due respect, not all, just some).

We owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Corch Norvell. In 2015, we were smack dab right in the middle of the "Desert of Potatoes" led by that feckless illiterate, Coach Potato. Going into the Texas - ou game, our record was 1 - 4. We had lost to Notre Dame 38 - 3; lost to Cal ! 45 - 44; lost to Okie Lite 30 - 27, and; lost to TCu 50 -7. We were dead on arrival.

Ou was 4 - 0, ranked No. 10, led by Baker Fucking Mayfield. An ou team that would play Clempson in the playoffs.

And yet, for one glorious afternoon, it seemed like we knew what play Ou was going to run before they did. Shifts before snaps putting us in just the right place. Our offense taking advantage of their weakness. And for some reason, known only to God and broccoli, we prevailed 24 - 17.  How and why?

Between 2011 - 2014, Corch Norvell was the Assistant OC and WR coach at ou.  He was shitcanned by Goiter Boy in January 2015. 2 weeks later, Coach Potato hires him as our WR coach.

That one glorious day in the Cotton Bowl, Norvell knew what ou was going to do. And naturally, he would be bitter because Coach Goiter set him up as the fall guy for ou's wretched playoff performance.

Norvell got his revenge.  Thanks Coach.

[CycleTex87 2981]

charliestrongsfinger.jpg

[Texas Wahoo 3418]

14 minutes ago, Lidig8r said:

You shut your dirty whore mouth!!! (with some due respect, not all, just some).

We owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Corch Norvell. In 2015, we were smack dab right in the middle of the "Desert of Potatoes" led by that feckless illiterate, Coach Potato. Going into the Texas - ou game, our record was 1 - 4. We had lost to Notre Dame 38 - 3; lost to Cal ! 45 - 44; lost to Okie Lite 30 - 27, and; lost to TCu 50 -7. We were dead on arrival.

Ou was 4 - 0, ranked No. 10, led by Baker Fucking Mayfield. An ou team that would play Clempson in the playoffs.

And yet, for one glorious afternoon, it seemed like we knew what play Ou was going to run before they did. Shifts before snaps putting us in just the right place. Our offense taking advantage of their weakness. And for some reason, known only to God and broccoli, we prevailed 24 - 17.  How and why?

Between 2011 - 2014, Corch Norvell was the Assistant OC and WR coach at ou.  He was shitcanned by Goiter Boy in January 2015. 2 weeks later, Coach Potato hires him as our WR coach.

That one glorious day in the Cotton Bowl, Norvell knew what ou was going to do. And naturally, he would be bitter because Coach Goiter set him up as the fall guy for ou's wretched playoff performance.

Norvell got his revenge.  Thanks Coach.

What?  I was suggesting that he was not a retread... A long-time assistant coach that finally gets a chance at a head coaching job and even moves up after a few years is inspiring - not what I think of when I think of retreads.

[LTbear 4171]

1 hour ago, Tylerocks said:

Interested to see how they do in back-to-back games @ Oregon and at home for USC.

Should be good games.

I'm really looking forward to those two games. Could be good games, or could rapidly deflate the Colorado hype train. Even as a CU fan I have zero issue saying CU is not as talented overall (or anywhere near as deep) as UO and USC. I think CU has a solid chance, since they have excellent playmakers in a few important spots and a great OC, but we won't really know what CU is until these two tests. 

[CooterBrown 18029]

24 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I'm really looking forward to those two games. Could be good games, or could rapidly deflate the Colorado hype train. Even as a CU fan I have zero issue saying CU is not as talented overall (or anywhere near as deep) as UO and USC. I think CU has a solid chance, since they have excellent playmakers in a few important spots and a great OC, but we won't really know what CU is until these two tests. 

If anyone can shit the bed at an inopportune time, it's UO & USC. 

[Sbbruin 21888]

36 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I'm really looking forward to those two games. Could be good games, or could rapidly deflate the Colorado hype train. Even as a CU fan I have zero issue saying CU is not as talented overall (or anywhere near as deep) as UO and USC. I think CU has a solid chance, since they have excellent playmakers in a few important spots and a great OC, but we won't really know what CU is until these two tests. 

I think they lose both.  Oregon may be closer, but SC will likely stomp them.

[LTbear 4171]

3 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I think they lose both.  Oregon may be closer, but SC will likely stomp them.

Agreed that's the likely outcome, though I also wouldn't be surprised if they play USC closer after UO stomps them (UO on the road, USC at home). 

[NoName 16406]

28 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I'm really looking forward to those two games. Could be good games, or could rapidly deflate the Colorado hype train. Even as a CU fan I have zero issue saying CU is not as talented overall (or anywhere near as deep) as UO and USC. I think CU has a solid chance, since they have excellent playmakers in a few important spots and a great OC, but we won't really know what CU is until these two tests. 

this is long because it's me. but that's the #1 (USC) and #11 (Oregon) OFEI teams in the country.

Colorado gave up 42 points to TCU (#21 offense)

here is what TCU did drive by drive:

• 8 plays, 61 yards, INT
• 7 plays, TD
• 5 plays, punt
• 7 plays, missed FG
• 4 plays, TD (then the half)
• 3 plays, TD
• 7 plays, TD
• 14 plays, TD
• 2 plays, TD
• 12 plays, downs (they passed it 7 of 8 plays in a row, were driving, then ran it 2x on 1st and 10 and 2nd and 9, the had an incomplete pass, then pass to Jared Wiley short of the sticks)

the INT was a fantastic play by Travis Hunter, and a bad pass by Morris. link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lckld85JEk4

after that they stopped them once until the last drive of the game. that's not a winning combo.

the CU defense is straight up not very good.

 

 

their offense is interesting, looking at the underlying FEI ratings - looks like they are pretty clearly a top 20 offense in most of the measures, but the clear outlier is that they have no busted drives yet (which won't continue to be 0%) and are only #17 in TD rate. schedule is decent so far, like #40ish. i just want to see how they do vs a halfway decent defense, which TCU is not. Sanders is also not going to have 0 INT for the year, he doesn't throw a ton (~7 / year the last 2 years), or about 1 every 64 attempts. so far he is at 0 in 89 attempts.

vs TCU - this loses you a game a ton of the time - the combo of a 0th percentile run stop rate and a 3rd percentile havoc rate, along with not being able to run the ball= tough. but TCU sucks on defense. Colorado had a 60% postgame win expectancy based on Bill C's numbers.

Spoiler

vs Nebraska - who has a god awful offense, but somehow had a 78th percentile explosive play rate? Nebraska was at a 9th percentile  rate vs Minn for comparison and is currently a very, very bad offensive team (113/133 in TD rate, 114/133 in busted drive rate, 120/133 in drive efficiency - basically positive drives, 114/131 in points per drive, 130/133 in % of drives that end in a turnover, 103/133 in available yards.) all this, and they still gave Nebraska a success rate when rushing of 36% which was slightly higher than what Texas had vs Bama (35%) - even though NEB ran it 63% of their plays. Colorado had a 91.5% postgame win expectancy for this game based on Bill C's numbers.

Spoiler

the USC game is going to be more like the TCU game, except they are facing Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley, not Chandler Morris and Dumbface McGee. idk what happens with Oregon, but they will have the best defense CU will have faced so far this year. they will not be favored in either of those games. Oregon will be the first time all year they are going to face a good offense with a decent defense (#36 in DFEI, #11 offense)

if they have a single bad game red zone success wise or 3rd down success wise against anyone decent, they are fucked.

if their explosive play rate drops at all, they are fucked.

if they give up 16% HAVOC rate against anyone whose offense has a pulse, they are fucked.  if they have another game with a 20th percentile HAVOC rate created, they are fucked.

if they have another game with a defensive run stuff rate as low as they did vs TCU, they are fucked.

for a quick comparison to Texas/Bama, Texas had an 18%/88th percentile HAVOC rate created, a 20%/9th percentile run stop rate, a 44%/57%tile red zone success rate, a 35%/31st percentile 3rd down success rate and a 36%/27%tile success rate. Texas had a 76.8% postgame win expectancy based on Bill C's numbers.

Spoiler

CSU isn't going to give us any insight into their team, they are going to win like 70-7 and play their starters all game because they can and pad the shit out of stats.

i'm shocked they are going to be 3-0 considering i didn't think they would win 3 games. that said, the rest of their schedule is going to be interesting. looking at FEI, they face a handful of teams with bad defenses but good offenses (UCLA = #15 offense, #58 defense), Oregon State (#24 offense, #43 defense) - which we know CU can at least keep close and beat based on TCU game...but how are they going to do against teams that are more balanced like Washington State (#28 offense, #29 defense) or Utah (their offense is TBD once Rising is back - likely top 25 but they are currently the #3 DFEI team)

they should smash Stanford, Arizona could be interesting, but their defense is terrrrrrrrrrible. Arizona State could be too, but their defense is bad also and their offense is #51 at the moment.

 

[LTbear 4171]

4 minutes ago, NoName said:

this is long because it's me. but that's the #1 (USC) and #11 (Oregon) OFEI teams in the country.

Colorado gave up 42 points to TCU (#21 offense)

here is what TCU did drive by drive:

• 8 plays, 61 yards, INT
• 7 plays, TD
• 5 plays, punt
• 7 plays, missed FG
• 4 plays, TD (then the half)
• 3 plays, TD
• 7 plays, TD
• 14 plays, TD
• 2 plays, TD
• 12 plays, downs (they passed it 7 of 8 plays in a row, were driving, then ran it 2x on 1st and 10 and 2nd and 9, the had an incomplete pass, then pass to Jared Wiley short of the sticks)

the INT was a fantastic play by Travis Hunter, and a bad pass by Morris. link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lckld85JEk4

after that they stopped them once until the last drive of the game. that's not a winning combo.

the CU defense is straight up not very good.

 

 

their offense is interesting, looking at the underlying FEI ratings - looks like they are pretty clearly a top 20 offense in most of the measures, but the clear outlier is that they have no busted drives yet (which won't continue to be 0%) and are only #17 in TD rate. schedule is decent so far, like #40ish. i just want to see how they do vs a halfway decent defense, which TCU is not. Sanders is also not going to have 0 INT for the year, he doesn't throw a ton (~7 / year the last 2 years), or about 1 every 64 attempts. so far he is at 0 in 89 attempts.

vs TCU - this loses you a game a ton of the time - the combo of a 0th percentile run stop rate and a 3rd percentile havoc rate, along with not being able to run the ball= tough. but TCU sucks on defense. Colorado had a 60% postgame win expectancy based on Bill C's numbers.

  Reveal hidden contents

vs Nebraska - who has a god awful offense, but somehow had a 78th percentile explosive play rate? Nebraska was at a 9th percentile  rate vs Minn for comparison and is currently a very, very bad offensive team (113/133 in TD rate, 114/133 in busted drive rate, 120/133 in drive efficiency - basically positive drives, 114/131 in points per drive, 130/133 in % of drives that end in a turnover, 103/133 in available yards.) all this, and they still gave Nebraska a success rate when rushing of 36% which was slightly higher than what Texas had vs Bama (35%) - even though NEB ran it 63% of their plays. Colorado had a 91.5% postgame win expectancy for this game based on Bill C's numbers.

  Reveal hidden contents

the USC game is going to be more like the TCU game, except they are facing Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley, not Chandler Morris and Dumbface McGee. idk what happens with Oregon, but they will have the best defense CU will have faced so far this year. they will not be favored in either of those games. Oregon will be the first time all year they are going to face a good offense with a decent defense (#36 in DFEI, #11 offense)

if they have a single bad game red zone success wise or 3rd down success wise against anyone decent, they are fucked.

if their explosive play rate drops at all, they are fucked.

if they give up 16% HAVOC rate against anyone whose offense has a pulse, they are fucked.  if they have another game with a 20th percentile HAVOC rate created, they are fucked.

if they have another game with a defensive run stuff rate as low as they did vs TCU, they are fucked.

for a quick comparison to Texas/Bama, Texas had an 18%/88th percentile HAVOC rate created, a 20%/9th percentile run stop rate, a 44%/57%tile red zone success rate, a 35%/31st percentile 3rd down success rate and a 36%/27%tile success rate. Texas had a 76.8% postgame win expectancy based on Bill C's numbers.

  Reveal hidden contents

CSU isn't going to give us any insight into their team, they are going to win like 70-7 and play their starters all game because they can and pad the shit out of stats.

i'm shocked they are going to be 3-0 considering i didn't think they would win 3 games. that said, the rest of their schedule is going to be interesting. looking at FEI, they face a handful of teams with bad defenses but good offenses (UCLA = #15 offense, #58 defense), Oregon State (#24 offense, #43 defense) - which we know CU can at least keep close and beat based on TCU game...but how are they going to do against teams that are more balanced like Washington State (#28 offense, #29 defense) or Utah (their offense is TBD once Rising is back - likely top 25 but they are currently the #3 DFEI team)

they should smash Stanford, Arizona could be interesting, but their defense is terrrrrrrrrrible. Arizona State could be too, but their defense is bad also and their offense is #51 at the moment.

 

That feels like a very long way of agreeing with me. We won't know much until UO/ USC. They'll likely lose those, likely lose to Utah (though Utah wasn't impressive against Baylor), then the rest is kind of a guess right now.

A bowl is the goal. Anything else is icing on the cake.  

[NoName 16406]

8 minutes ago, LTbear said:

That feels like a very long way of agreeing with me. We won't know much until UO/ USC. They'll likely lose those, likely lose to Utah (though Utah wasn't impressive against Baylor), then the rest is kind of a guess right now.

A bowl is the goal. Anything else is icing on the cake.  

i wasn't ever disagreeing with you? but we know plenty about them so far. their defense is not good, it gives up a lot of explosive plays, they can't really run the ball well and the only way they win is to basically score on every drive. they won't be that good of an offense in every game going forward.

Utah wasn't impressive vs Baylor but their QB had like a QBR of 9 or something insane for that game. he's also not the starter (Cam Rising is)

if they bowl it's incredible and honestly one of the biggest turnarounds in the last 50 years of CFB considering how bad they were last year.

BUT any injury to any one of their key players hurts them more than any P5 team in the country because of the lack of depth and tested depth as well as the lack of time in the system. if Caleb Willams goes down, they at least have another top 100 dude who has been at USC for 3 years and is in year 2 of Lincoln Riley's system and they have true freshman Malachi Nelson behind him. CU has jack shit.

they will lose every game that Shedeur Sanders is hurt and misses. any missing of time by their OL increases the chance of him getting hurt.

same for Travis Hunter. dude can not keep playing a million snaps a game all year long. period. any real or nagging injury now hurts you 2x as much.

overall: basically they have to win 3 of the games left of @Oregon, USC, @ Az State, Stanford, Oregon St, Arizona, @ Washington State, @ Utah.

assuming no injury they will beat Stanford and Arizona State (that's 5 wins) - Arizona will be close and depend on injuries.

so they have to win those 3 to make a bowl? seems reasonable assuming no injuries.

they will be underdogs vs Oregon, USC, UCLA, Oregon State and Utah. They will probably be underdogs against Washington State on the road.

 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by NoName

[Chewbacca 7785]

6 hours ago, cmontexas said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2023/09/14/deion-sanders-jay-norvell-colorado-hat-glasses/70849658007/

Norvell decides to help motivate the Buffs with an asinine, boomer level press conference taking shots at Deion

Lulz.  Norvell is tired of Prime getting all the attention and he wants some, dammit!

[LTbear 4171]

3 minutes ago, NoName said:

i wasn't ever disagreeing with you?

I wasn't saying you were. We agree on most - I pointed out depth is important. Injury bug would curtail things quickly. I realize Utah didn't have their starting QB but they had looked much better in week 1 vs Florida regardless. 

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

4 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Another retread coach who’s had 14 jobs in 20 years




And no, jay…you’re not going up there. Fort Collins is north of Boulder

Boulder is about 400 ft higher than Ft. Collins.

[ClubWhatever 12158]

3 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Boulder is about 400 ft higher than Ft. Collins.

In more than ways than one

[Texas Wahoo 3418]

I agree with this take.  Trying to beat Coach Prime at his own game may not be the best strategy (but to be honest, what is there to lose as 20+ point underdogs), but it is certainly the most fun strategy.

My wife went to CU and hasn't cared about CU football since the scandals of the early 2000s, but its more interesting when the CU-CSU rivalry is interesting (if not competitive).

Edited September 14, 2023 by Texas Wahoo

[Texas Wahoo 3418]

11 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

I agree with this take.  Trying to beat Coach Prime at his own game may not be the best strategy (but to be honest, what is there to lose as 20+ point underdogs), but it is certainly the most fun strategy.

My wife went to CU and hasn't cared about CU football since the scandals of the early 2000s, but its more interesting when the CU-CSU rivalry is interesting (if not competitive).

LOL, forgot to include the take:

 

 

[Vic Mackey 47151]

.

[ClubWhatever 12158]

Somebody paid $121 to see Colorado football last year?   Yikes. 

[66BUFF 2565]

19 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

Somebody paid $121 to see Colorado football last year?   Yikes. 

Price was a little higher on my season tickets

[The Dog 44140]

CSU winning would be one of the funniest things ever (except to CU fans).