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Hook1997

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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On 9/25/2020 at 4:21 PM, closetohumping said:

Cowherd has sucked lately but he used to be 60%

Nobody beats NFL sides long term. What’s worse, with little to no fans now all the models that were overrating home field are corrected.

I’ve still been spending my time on baseball but with fewer games, I’ll start on NFL this week...but unlike baseball, I don’t expect to win. I’m one of the nobody that beats the NFL. 😀

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UhhhIdk

UhhhIdk 125

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On 10/5/2020 at 8:03 AM, VolenteHawk said:

betonline.ag assuming you’re in a state that doesn’t have legal options.

Yeah I’m in Texas. Do you suggest taking my winnings (assuming I don’t let my longhorn bias affect me) in bitcoin or straight to my bank? 

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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Making a couple of plays this week...

Already grabbed...

Panthers +7.5  I make this game NO -4.5, the market is either giving NO a bump for home field or bye week rest or I'm just wrong on Carolina and will lose my ass on them soon.  Like it considerably less at 7, so already bet it.  Even last week when my bet was never alive I didn't hate the handicap, you just can't overcome -2 TO and 50% on 3rd down from a team that sucks at it.

Panthers +1200 to win the NFC South.  Obviously a long shot (why it's 12/1), but if the Panthers are going to make a run most paths include them getting at least a split with the Saints and their other game is week 17 when, if they're still alive,  this number will be long gone.

Eagles -4  Too big of an adjustment on injury news of guys that just don't affect their power rating.  I played it at -4 +105 figuring that was the bottom but some 3.5s are already popping up...so you could do better.

Will grab...

Titans in some way.  I'm going to let the line breathe a little.  If it gets to 3 I'll take the points and if not I'll just take the best ML I can find.  I like the Steelers (see other thread about them being my preseason most underrated team) and have a huge position on their season win total over, but this is a terrible spot...a little overreaction to them blowing out Cleveland and they're at the Ravens next week.

Looking at...

Eagles +150 to win the NFC East.  I'm still thinking this one over, but the Eagles schedule doesn't get hard until closer to the end, so if I have conviction that they're a little undervalued firing at this could give me the option of either riding with them or buying back some Cowboys and locking in a profit.  The only way I'd get really jammed here is the Eagles sucking over the next month or the Cowboys getting hot and the Eagles have a far easier schedule through that stretch.

Edited by VolenteHawk
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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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I don’t see much value on today’s card. I’ll grab the +3 1/2 with the Broncos and if the Rams tick down to 3 before kickoff I’ll lay that. The Steelers ML is kinda interesting. If that gets to +200 that’s probably a play.

So basically I’m playing one game and watching lines for moves I probably won’t get.

 

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Brew

Brew 3049

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I f-ing hate the randomness of betting sometimes. Based on weather predictions I loaded up on the under in GB/Minn but waited a little long and got it at 49.5. F-ing GB goes for 2 on their last TD instead of kicking the XP which would have made it 28-21. They get it and finish the game 28-22. Played a decent teaser on them, Pitt, and LV which they also managed to cost me.

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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1 hour ago, Brew said:

I f-ing hate the randomness of betting sometimes. Based on weather predictions I loaded up on the under in GB/Minn but waited a little long and got it at 49.5. F-ing GB goes for 2 on their last TD instead of kicking the XP which would have made it 28-21. They get it and finish the game 28-22. Played a decent teaser on them, Pitt, and LV which they also managed to cost me.

Welcome to the NFL, man. Let’s take my card today an an example. Denver +3.5, Rams -3 (never got), Steelers +200 (never got). By FAR the best handicap there was the Rams. Outgained the Dolphins 471-145, shit happens...only one that didn’t win.

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Brew

Brew 3049

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Houston -6.5 and then a few teasers KC/Pitt, KC/Houston, and one other I think plus a little on a Houston or Pitt high scoring team of the day. KC was the base of all of the teasers which isn’t looking great. Didn’t see much out there with any value. 

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Hook1997

Hook1997 5351

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13 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

I have Washington in the noon games. I’ll sell you the ticket at a discount.

Afternoon I got Dolphins +6 and Raiders -1. I’ll try to remember to post next week.

Man Dolphins looked bad on offense last week with Tua minus the turnovers and def/special teams TD’s they would have lost 

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Hook1997

Hook1997 5351

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College basketball is starting I don’t pay enough attention to bet on it really but supposedly for people in the know it’s easy at the start.  In college I paid some guy $100 or something like that for what he said would be all season Of picks.  Well he’s telling me bet $100-$300 every game I’m betting $10-$20. He goes 10-0 and wants more money I’m like no, he says I’ll give you one more free then it’s going to be more...  I bet all I’ve won on game 11 and of course it loses. 

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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Did you consider a tease there? Give up a couple dollars of return but could get Giants PK, Browns -1, Chiefs +3.

Edit: Actually the Chiefs are 3.5 all over the place now, so it’d either be +2.5 or more than a couple dollars...so less compelling.

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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57 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Only thing that jumps out at me today is NYG -6 @ Cincy

I also think the Browns have been undervalued all year - not sure I'd go for them -7 on the road, though 

I like the whole board today. That’s never good, so I’m preparing my anus for a pounding.

Titans +3 and +135

Cardinals PK

Bucs +3.5

Chargers +4.5

Vikings -3

If the opponent scores first and I can get any of the following at -3 or better in game I will...Giants, Dolphins, Rams, Browns.

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

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47 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

Did you consider a tease there? Give up a couple dollars of return but could get Giants PK, Browns -1, Chiefs +3.

No. I could stand to be schooled on teases. 

And yeah - Chiefs +2.5 vs the ML - I'll just take the ML.

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