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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

Posted
Posted
On 11/29/2020 at 11:26 AM, ztejas said:

No. I could stand to be schooled on teases. 

And yeah - Chiefs +2.5 vs the ML - I'll just take the ML.

The idea of a tease in the NFL is to get through 3 and 7 because those numbers are so common as to be valuable and the NFL market is so efficient that both sides pay pretty frequently.  Many situations are actually a profitable play long term, teasing short dogs up to past 7 and medium favorites down to under 3.  Tonight's game is a pretty good example.  Seattle has been bet up substantially (80% of bets) but it hasn't moved to 7 even though it probably should.  They've been bet up on the ML also, but there are no barriers to just arbitrarily moving the money line, so this resistance to 7 builds a lack of efficiency into the spread/ML relationship.  So, if you wanted to parlay the Seattle ML with some other game priced exactly the same (-6.5/-300), you'd actually be paying a premium to make that bet vs what the spread says it "should" be.  Those two -300s parlayed together cost -129, but teasing those same two gives you -1/2, -1/2 and you only pay -110...much better deal, as the possibility of a tie isn't NOTHING but it's not worth 20 cents.

In your case yesterday, you had picked two games that generally fit that model and so I figured off the top of my head a tease would be better, you'd essentially be using the above pricing advantage to get Chiefs points at the same payout...specifically (if the Chiefs had been -3 at the time), instead of ML parlay 20/34, you could have gotten a teaser at roughly those same odds but having the Chiefs +3 instead of PK and having to lay 1/2 or 1 in the other two games. If you win, it doesn't matter, of course, but long term you're trying to turn those close Chiefs losses into a winning ticket and risking the occasional downgraded payout for Browns winning by one and pushing or actually losing to a tie Browns or Giants tie.

Teasing through 0 isn't long term profitable, you're just going through a bunch of low likelihood numbers...but you'd already landed on the teams.  If you're ML parlaying those examples like tonight in the 6-7 range, it's always worth pricing it both ways to either confirm you're getting the best deal or see if there are free points laying there.

Hopefully that all makes sense.  Google "Stanford Wong teaser" for more than you've ever wanted to know about this.

 

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ztejas

ztejas 43752

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

If you win, it doesn't matter, of course, but long term you're trying to turn those close Chiefs losses into a winning ticket and risking the occasional downgraded payout for Browns winning by one and pushing or actually losing to a tie Browns or Giants tie.

Teasing through 0 isn't long term profitable, you're just going through a bunch of low likelihood numbers...but you'd already landed on the teams.  If you're ML parlaying those examples like tonight in the 6-7 range, it's always worth pricing it both ways to either confirm you're getting the best deal or see if there are free points laying there.

Hopefully that all makes sense.  Google "Stanford Wong teaser" for more than you've ever wanted to know about this.

 

It does make sense. I'm not sure I gamble enough to start bringing long term statistics into it or think about why spreads are the way they are.

For the most part I don't think much past "what is the line?" and "what do I think will happen?". When those two things are wildly different I tend to make a bet. Obviously there's plenty of nuance and subconscious shit that I'm thinking on top of that. 

When it came to yesterday's parlay, I was betting on 3 things:

1. There's no fucking way the Giants lose that game. NY has been better than their record imo and Cincy is just terrible.

2. Cleveland seems to be a little undervalued by Vegas. That's probably confirmation bias on my part but I beleive it to be true and have seen it in years past. Their floor this season doesn't seem like a typical Browns floor and Jacksonville is just atrocious.

3. I needed a game to make the + odds respectable and I thought Tampa was getting way too much love. Even though the possibility of Brady getting some fucky ref shit go his way concerned me (rightfully so). Tampa wound up playing it close but that game wasn't really ever in doubt. KC is just too good to me to not tack onto Tampa's slide.

As for tonight - I wouldn't touch this game with a 10 ft pole.

And congrats on not getting your ass pounded yesterday! Looks like you came out with the .500 "spin again" card.

Edited by ztejas
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ztejas

ztejas 43752

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

I can not f ing believe I just lost Seattle -6.5

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk
 

Shit happens. Sometimes it works for you, sometimes it works against you. I had $50 on LSU +15* Saturday night - their last minute garbage TD covered for me.

Edited by ztejas
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ztejas

ztejas 43752

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

I knew they would go for 2, Doug Peterson is a true believer in the go for 2 after scoring a td down 14. Whatever.

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk
 

To be fair, they did miss an XP. But the TD was ridiculous either way.

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ztejas

ztejas 43752

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On one hand, I get the -10. On the other hand, I'm not sure how much worse RG3 can be than what Lamar has displayed in his most recent stretch of games.

And it's a rivalry game, Ravens have more to play for, Pitt already won once this year. All that considered 10 seems like A LOT of points. 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7776

Posted
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10 minutes ago, ztejas said:

On one hand, I get the -10. On the other hand, I'm not sure how much worse RG3 can be than what Lamar has displayed in his most recent stretch of games.

And it's a rivalry game, Ravens have more to play for, Pitt already won once this year. All that considered 10 seems like A LOT of points. 

Yeah if Baltimore can sustain drives and get first downs so the Gus Bus can roll, those ten points are a nice head start. But that is a big if.

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Dr Fear

Dr Fear 1269

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13 minutes ago, ztejas said:

On one hand, I get the -10. On the other hand, I'm not sure how much worse RG3 can be than what Lamar has displayed in his most recent stretch of games.

And it's a rivalry game, Ravens have more to play for, Pitt already won once this year. All that considered 10 seems like A LOT of points. 

MArk Ingram and JK Dobbins are out, Gus Edwards UDFA rookie is coming up from the practice squad.  Ravens secondary is mostly intact. Long snapper Morgan Cox is out [this is a big deal]. WRs are mostly there including Dez.  Top tow centers out.  Trace McSorley is the backup QB.

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7776

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

MArk Ingram and JK Dobbins are out, Gus Edwards UDFA rookie is coming up from the practice squad.  Ravens secondary is mostly intact. Long snapper Morgan Cox is out [this is a big deal]. WRs are mostly there including Dez.  Top tow centers out.  Trace McSorley is the backup QB.

Gus Edwards is a stud with plenty of experience, the UDFA rookie rb is Tyson Williams and they also still have Justice Hill as well. 

Edited by Gourmand
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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

Posted
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1 hour ago, Dr Fear said:

Took the Steelers -10 a few hours ago.  Has another fun one last night when KU didn't cover with the dunk just after the buzzer lol.

I had a couple of buddies that had -3.5.  By the way they were cussing at me via text you'd have thought I was involved in the play or something.

 

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Brew

Brew 3049

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Brew said:

Steelers dropped back to -10, seems like easy money but there are a ton of variables there. May tease it and the under.

The tease worked out well and was the bigger bet, the line should have been fine other than McSorley making one pass.

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  • 2 weeks later...
VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

Posted
Posted (edited)

Atlanta ML +106

Houston -1 1/2

If Pittsburgh get to the full +3 I’ll take that but I don’t think it will.

Will probably be on Ravens tomorrow night but I expect the number to move in my favor.

Edit: BOL had a -1 -115 for the Texans so that’s what I officially took.

Edited by VolenteHawk
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ztejas

ztejas 43752

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I want to put money on KC to cover 9.5 but I'm wary. I got both games yesterday right, even though I decided against putting money on GB since I was already down on the week. 

On 1/15/2021 at 11:13 AM, VolenteHawk said:

there’s no justification for it to be that high.

new york football GIF by NBA

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15381

Posted
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On 2/2/2021 at 2:10 PM, Dr Fear said:

Anyone diving into prop bets for The Big Game?

Will likely lay some ALT line bets.  I saw a KC winning by 14 or more for +375.  I'll probably take that and TB to win on the standard ML.  Also did a few player props.  

Value wise on MVP, I like Tyreke Hill at +1100ish.  He's a guy that could take an end around to the house, or take a punt to the house, along with his receiving duties.  

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