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Texas opens as a 16 point favorite v TCU

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 18988

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, ztejas said:

+10 sounds about right. It won't move past that short of some bad lineup news for Texas. I wouldn't touch the TCU ML. Betting that the better team won't show up is risky even in cfb. 

We are at home.

Ehhh. There’s a lot of assumptions in your post. We don’t really know if we’re better. Maybe we did show up against Tech and that’s just what we are. 
 

Anyways, a parlay of TCU to cover and taking the over would probably be my favorite bet for this game. 
 

5 minutes ago, Hard Times said:

I lost count after Mitchell's 20th missed tackle last Saturday. Can he top 30 this Saturday? Will he make Evans look like Ricky Williams?

 

Why in the hell can't TH recruit a LB?

Because Todd Orlando was our LBs coach for the last three years. 

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jinx

jinx 2635

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

+10 sounds about right. It won't move past that short of some bad lineup news for Texas. I wouldn't touch the TCU ML. Betting that the better team won't show up is risky even in cfb. 

We are at home.

You seem convinced Texas has the better team, even though we have lost to TCU 6 of the last 8 times we played them.

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ztejas

ztejas 43244

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2 minutes ago, jinx said:

You seem convinced Texas has the better team, even though we have lost to TCU 6 of the last 8 times we played them.

You're right. I should factor in the 2014 game into Saturday's result. 

I'm not convinced of anything. Losing to this TCU team at home would probably be a worse result than losing to Tech in Lubbock, though.

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jinx

jinx 2635

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And had we not pulled out the miraculous victory against Tech, I bet this game would be a pick em.  

2014 - 16 should be used as proof of Patterson's desire to punk Texas any chance he gets.  He has succeeded much more than he has failed.  I have zero confidence that Turtle Tom is ready for it.

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fellside

fellside 1076

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12 minutes ago, shakahorn said:

For some odd reason, he comes off like he likes us.

Because Fox financially benefits when the Big 12 is good.  Klatt sounded as sad about OU losing last weekend as Brando and Tillman did about UT winning.

Klatt wants the Big 12 and Big Ten to compete.

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 18988

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

You're right. I should factor in the 2014 game into Saturday's result. 

I'm not convinced of anything. Losing to this TCU team at home would probably be a worse result than losing to Tech in Lubbock, though.

No it wouldn’t. The season is still young, but based on what we know right now, TCU is a good bit better than Tech, and would be the clear favorite to win on a neutral field. Losing to Tech absolutely would have been worse. 

1 hour ago, Alex Karev said:

Can we please get our defense together and shut them down to 10 or less and put up about 55 points on these toads and send them home spitting blood.

No. We cannot. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43244

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14 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

TCU is a good bit better than Tech, and would be the clear favorite to win on a neutral field.

So I'm not allowed to say that we're better than TCU but TCU is "a good bit better" than Tech and would be the clear favorite? How do you figure that? 

Going off of games played, TCU narrowly beat a team that got fucking waxed by Louisiana Laffayette, who has since beat Georgia Southern and Georgia State by a combined 5 points. 

Texas looked like shit against Tech but still pulled out a win and we absolutely mudfucked UTEP at home. 

I'm fine with waiting to see how much better we are than TCU, if any, but don't turn around and tell me that TCU is somehow "better" than Tech based on what we've seen. 

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Happy Gilmore

Happy Gilmore 1001

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1 minute ago, ztejas said:

So I'm not allowed to say that we're better than TCU but TCU is "a good bit better" than Tech and would be the clear favorite? How do you figure that? 

Going off of games played, TCU narrowly beat a team that got fucking waxed by Louisiana Laffayette, who has since beat Georgia Southern and Georgia State by a combined 5 points. 

Texas looked like shit against Tech but still pulled out a win and we absolutely mudfucked UTEP at home. 

I'm fine with waiting to see how much better we are than TCU, if any, but don't turn around and tell me that TCU is somehow "better" than Tech based on what we've seen. 

TCU lost to said team that got waxed by ULL

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 18988

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17 minutes ago, ztejas said:

So I'm not allowed to say that we're better than TCU but TCU is "a good bit better" than Tech and would be the clear favorite? How do you figure that? 

Going off of games played, TCU narrowly beat a team that got fucking waxed by Louisiana Laffayette, who has since beat Georgia Southern and Georgia State by a combined 5 points. 

Texas looked like shit against Tech but still pulled out a win and we absolutely mudfucked UTEP at home. 

I'm fine with waiting to see how much better we are than TCU, if any, but don't turn around and tell me that TCU is somehow "better" than Tech based on what we've seen. 

You were the one who brought up which loss would be worse, which is inherently a statement about which team is better between TCU and Tech. 

Regardless, Tech’s performance against HBU is a way worse performance than TCU losing to ISU or ISU losing to UL, who is likely a 10 win G5 team. That’s not even comparable to a 2 point win at home over an FCS team that went 2-6 in conference last year. Plus, TCU didn’t start Duggan because of all his health issues and their backup was significantly worse. If Duggan plays that whole game, like he will against us, TCU likely wins. 
 

So yeah, based on what we’ve seen so far this year, Tech is worse and pretty much every advanced analytic agrees with that. If we’re trying to decide right now, Tech would’ve absolutely been the worse loss. 
 

 

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ztejas

ztejas 43244

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1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

You were the one who brought up which loss would be worse, which is inherently a statement about which team is better between TCU and Tech. 

It inherently isn't that at all. There is a difference between our first real test, on the road in Lubbock, breaking in new coordinators vs. our 3rd game at home against a listless TCU team. I think Tech and TCU are on pretty equal footing. Both losses would have been/would be bad but Tech on the road would be at least more understandable.

1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

Regardless, Tech’s performance against HBU is a way worse performance than TCU losing to ISU or ISU losing to UL, who is likely a 10 win G5 team. That’s not even comparable to a 2 point win at home over an FCS team that went 2-6 in conference last year.

Couldn't disagree more and not sure how you come to that conclusion. A lot of teams had weird first games. Lets not act like the Tech team that played HBU showed up against us.. SMU played Tx St to a one score final and since then we have dog whipped our next 2 opponents. The UL/ISU game should be an indictment against ISU if anything. UL hasn't looked like anything close to a decent team in their last 2 games.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14154

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2 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

No it wouldn’t. The season is still young, but based on what we know right now, TCU is a good bit better than Tech, and would be the clear favorite to win on a neutral field. Losing to Tech absolutely would have been worse. 

No. We cannot. 

TCU lost to an Iowa State team that was dominated by UL. Iowa State was also missing several starters against TCU. 

You have no clue if TCU is better than Texas Tech. Stop with the hot takes. 

 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 18988

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26 minutes ago, ztejas said:

It inherently isn't that at all. There is a difference between our first real test, on the road in Lubbock, breaking in new coordinators vs. our 3rd game at home against a listless TCU team. I think Tech and TCU are on pretty equal footing. Both losses would have been/would be bad but Tech on the road would be at least more understandable.

Couldn't disagree more and not sure how you come to that conclusion. A lot of teams had weird first games. Lets not act like the Tech team that played HBU showed up against us.. SMU played Tx St to a one score final and since then we have dog whipped our next 2 opponents. The UL/ISU game should be an indictment against ISU if anything. UL hasn't looked like anything close to a decent team in their last 2 games.

So you throw away Tech’s horrible performance because it was a weird first game but determine TCU is listless based on its first game of the season where it played without its best QB for an entire half? That makes a lot of sense. 

11 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

TCU lost to an Iowa State team that was dominated by UL. Iowa State was also missing several starters against TCU. 

You have no clue if TCU is better than Texas Tech. Stop with the hot takes. 

 

Since when is saying TCU is better than Tech a hot take? lulz.
 

and there’s also plenty of reason to believe TCU is better. Every single one of FPI, Massey, S&P+, and FEI all have TCU rated significantly higher than Tech. TCU would absolutely be favored over Tech if they played each other this week.  

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23418

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12 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:



You have no clue if TCU is better than Texas Tech. Stop with the hot takes. 

 

By the same token, I have no clue if Texas is better than Texas Tech. We won in miraculous fashion, but I'm not sure that means anything. That same Tech squad almost lost to Houston Baptist. The line is down to -11.5 at my book, and I still have zero interest.  Gun to my head, I would rather take TCU +330 than Texas -11.5, as they are both about equally likely to happen in my mind. The over  (62.5) is probably the only bet I might  touch. Until I see our shitstain defense play a team with a pulse and not get steamrolled, the only game I feel comfortable with the rest of the year is KU. And fuck if we didn't almost lose to them last year..... at home.  

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14154

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11 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

So you throw away Tech’s horrible performance because it was a weird first game but determine TCU is listless based on its first game of the season where it played without its best QB for an entire half? That makes a lot of sense. 

Since when is saying TCU is better than Tech a hot take? lulz.
 

and there’s also plenty of reason to believe TCU is better. Every single one of FPI, Massey, S&P+, and FEI all have TCU rated significantly higher than Tech. TCU would absolutely be favored over Tech if they played each other this week.  

 

Advanced stats don't mean anything when TCU has only played one game. 

You seem to think TCU has been much better than Texas Tech in recent years. In the last 3 seasons, TCU is 7-12 in the Big 12 and Texas Tech is 5-14. They've both been awful. Texas has tendency to play down to opponents so I wouldn't be shocked if Texas lost to TCU but this team has been awful for 3 years. This should be a team Texas runs off the field. 

I don't know why you keep acting like this TCU team is substantially better than Tech? It's the weakest TCU team in years. They don't have a big threat at WR like Reagor, they don't have a decent tackle like Niang, they don't have any NFL talent on the defensive line like in most years and I could continue. Outside of the defensive backs and linebackers their roster is trash which is why they're 7-12 in the last 3 seasons in the Big 12. 

TCU lost to an Iowa State team that was missing 3 starters and has already been dominated by UL. In what world are you sure that TCU is definitely better than Tech? 

 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 18988

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20 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Advanced stats don't mean anything when TCU has only played one game. 

You seem to think TCU has been much better than Texas Tech in recent years. In the last 3 seasons, TCU is 7-12 in the Big 12 and Texas Tech is 5-14. They've both been awful. Texas has tendency to play down to opponents so I wouldn't be shocked if Texas lost to TCU but this team has been awful for 3 years. This should be a team we run off the field. 

I don't know why you keep acting like this TCU team is substantially better than Tech? It's the weakest TCU team in years. They don't have a big threat at WR like Reagor, they don't have a decent tackle like Niang, they don't have any NFL talent on the defensive line like in most years, and I could continue. Outside of the defensive backs and linebackers their roster is trash which is why they're 7-12 in the last 3 seasons in the Big 12. 

TCU lost to an Iowa State team that was missing 3 starters and has already been dominated by UL. In what world are you sure that TCU is definitely better than Tech? 

 

All of these rankings come close to mirroring Vegas even early in the year, so the fact there’s a consensus on TCU being significantly better than Tech is absolutely evidence they’d be favored. All I’ve said is based off what we know right now, TCU is better.
 

And this TCU team won’t be substantially worse than previous years because a Sophomore Duggan is easily the best QB they’ve had since 2017 when they went 11-3. They still have some talent and a lot of experience on the DL, including Bethley and while they don’t have an elite talent like Reagor on offense, they still have some good weapons like Barber and Lynn, which will have better production with a better QB. 
 

Point is, Patterson’s defense has had our number every year since Herman got here and  we just lucked out beating a Tech team that’s not very good at all, so people saying we should be double digit favorites or we should run TCU off the field are just drinking the kool aid at this point. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43244

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

So you throw away Tech’s horrible performance because it was a weird first game but determine TCU is listless based on its first game of the season where it played without its best QB for an entire half? That makes a lot of sense.

Tech played earlier than TCU and actually won their game. I also have another data point to use for Tech. You're giving TCU more credit for losing to ISU than Tech for beating HBU and almost beating Texas? Okay.

37 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

and there’s also plenty of reason to believe TCU is better. Every single one of FPI, Massey, S&P+, and FEI all have TCU rated significantly higher than Tech.

Hmmm what do those metrics say about TCU vs Texas? You're picking a strange hill to die on here.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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Why do we think Max Duggan is some all world QB?  He had a nice half against a depleted and bad ISU.  As a freshman last year he had a 55% completion rate, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 113 pass rating and averaged about 4 per carry.  And that's with having a super stud WR in Reagor.

Maybe he will be great.  But he had some awful, awful games last year.  He was awful to bad against OU, WVU, Baylor, Purdue, KSU, Okie State, and SMU.  He was good against us (when half our secondary was hurt), Tech, ISU, Kansas and Arkansas Pine Bluff.

I know he is talented.  But are we sure he's that great?  He is still young and did not practice much this summer.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48928

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32 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Why do we think Max Duggan is some all world QB?  He had a nice half against a depleted and bad ISU...    Maybe he will be great.  But he had some awful, awful games last year.  He was awful to bad against OU, WVU, Baylor, Purdue, KSU, Okie State, and SMU.  

Hope we get the awful version...

Max+Dugan+Returns+00.jpg

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48928

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Horns247 Staff: What will be key for Texas to take down TCU?

By  TAYLOR ESTES      2 hours ago

Quote

Question of the Week is …  With Texas losing five of the last six matchups against Gary Patterson and TCU, what will be key for the Longhorns to secure a win over the Horned Frogs Saturday afternoon?

BOBBY BURTON, PUBLISHER

Texas cannot be bull-headed on offense. The Longhorns have to open things up sometimes and yet they still have to move the ball with some consistency, too. Letting Gary Patterson’s defense get into any sort of rhythm is a recipe for defeat. That means the Horns have to stick with the run throughout the game and cannot be one-dimensional. On the other side of the ball, the Horns need to limit scramble yardage from the QB and yards after catch from the receivers. TCU has some big play weapons. The Horns have to limit those.

FUCK CHIP BROWN, COLUMNIST

After seeing Iowa State dominate TCU's five new starters on the offensive line and sack TCU's quarterbacks six times last week, the Texas defense can redeem itself following last week's missed-tackle-fest in Lubbock by getting to sophomore quarterback Max Duggan and harassing him into some turnovers.

Last year in Fort Worth, TCU had all five starters back on the offensive line and did a decent job of protecting Duggan and giving him time. This season is a different story. TCU's offensive line had no answer for Iowa State's JaQuan Bailey, who had half (3.5) of those seven sacks last week.

That should have Joseph Ossai salivating after Ossai came close to a strip sack last week at Tech that initially appeared to result in a scoop-and-score TD by linebacker Juwan Mitchell (only to be ruled an incomplete pass upon review).

Two years ago, in Texas' only win over TCU in the last six years, the Longhorns' defense led the way, winning the turnover battle 4-0. Texas converted two of those turnovers into touchdowns late in the game that helped Texas erase a 16-10, third-quarter deficit and pull away for a 31-16 win.

TCU's defense is going to be a totally different unit from the one that gave up touchdown runs of 75, 49 and 32 yards last week against Iowa State. Gary Patterson will breathe fire into his defense this week. TCU is also expected to get stud defensive tackle Terrell Cooper back this week, so look for TCU's D to be its usual, stingy, salty self Saturday in Austin. The Longhorns' D can help Saturday go smoothly against the Horned Frogs by roughing up Duggan and creating some turnovers and short fields for the UT offense.

JEFF HOWE, SENIOR WRITER

It comes down to the line of scrimmage because I don’t think either head coach is completely thrilled with what they’ve seen to this point on either side of the ball. Yes, Iowa State ran for 211 yards and the Cyclones racked up six sacks in a win over TCU, but that doesn’t mean Texas is guaranteed to dominate in the trenches on Saturday.

As was the case with the TCU offensive line in the loss to Iowa State, the Longhorn line gave up too much pressure and allowed too much leakage in the running game to keep the offense on schedule in the win over Texas Tech.

The defensive line had moments where the group flashed (Joseph Ossai had a strip sack overturned after a replay and the run defense allowed the Red Raiders only 41 net yards on 23 carries outside of the 75-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter by SaRodorick Thompson), but the best way to help a secondary that struggled mightily is to win more battles at the point of attack than the Longhorns won in Lubbock.

For me, the TCU game is the closest thing to the Oklahoma game Texas plays every year due to the need to match or exceed the level of physicality Gary Patterson’s club brings to the field. As the Horned Frogs have rattled off six wins in the eight meetings since joining the Big 12 ahead of the 2012 season, the Longhorns have won the rushing yardage battle in only one of those meetings (187-45 in a Texas victory 2013) and are a collective minus-5 in turnover margin.

Under Herman, Texas lost the rushing yardage battle in a landslide in 2017 (177-9) in a 24-7 loss; was outgained on the ground in 2018 (141-112) but controlled the game by running the ball 45 times (Herman is 18-0 at Texas when the offense records at least 40 rushing attempts) and won the turnover battle, 4-0, in a 31-16 win; lost the rushing yardage battle (162-126) and the turnover battle (4-2) in a 37-27 loss in 2019. Like the Red River Showdown, the TCU game for Texas is a line of scrimmage battle and other than the flashes by the Longhorn defensive line, I don’t know if either team’s trench groups have looked good enough in the small sample that is the 2020 season to think either squad has a decisive edge.

TAYLOR ESTES, MANAGING EDITOR

The Texas defense hitting TCU’s QB, whether it’s Matthew Downing or Max Duggan, early and often will be huge for the Longhorns Saturday. The Horned Frogs’ offensive line looked very suspect against Iowa State and allowed six sacks last weekend in their season opener. The Longhorns made it a priority to move to four-down linemen in an effort to disrupt the passing game and pressure opposing QBs, but they’re still having much success in getting guys on the ground. (Texas currently ranks second-to-last in sacks among all FBS college football teams currently playing games.) If the defense can put on the pressure from the jump, it could be a deciding factor in Saturday’s outcome.

MIKE ROACH, RECRUITING ANALYST

Gary Patterson’s teams play sound fundamental football and they rarely make mistakes. The Longhorns will need to help themselves by eliminating unforced errors that harmed them in the past. That includes procedure penalties and special teams mistakes. Under Tom Herman, Texas teams have struggled to play “clean” games with respect to penalties and turnovers. Had the Longhorns eliminated those two things last season against TCU, they likely wouldn’t have lost. Minimize the crippling issues that can derail a successful game plan and they should emerge 3-0 headed into the Red River Rivalry.

NICK HARRIS, RECRUITING REPORTER

The key to Saturday is going to be limiting the TCU offense. The Horned Frogs have some sneaky weapons with Taye Barber, JD Spielman and Emari Demercado, and Max Duggan is more than capable of succeeding against this Texas defense. I don’t have any worries about Sam Ehlinger and Co. getting it done on offense, but if it does turn into the shootout we saw last week against Tech, it will obviously come down to which defense can make the big stops. Getting to the quarterback is something we haven’t seen in the first two games, so I would like to see the defensive line make Duggan uncomfortable early and ride that momentum throughout the game.

https://247sports.com/college/texas/LongFormArticle/Texas-Longhorns-keys-to-victory-against-TCU-Horned-Frogs-Sam-Ehlinger-Max-Dugan-Gary-Patterson-Tom-Herman-152221318/#152221318_7

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10134

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5 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

Why do we think Max Duggan is some all world QB?  He had a nice half against a depleted and bad ISU.  As a freshman last year he had a 55% completion rate, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 113 pass rating and averaged about 4 per carry.  And that's with having a super stud WR in Reagor.

Maybe he will be great.  But he had some awful, awful games last year.  He was awful to bad against OU, WVU, Baylor, Purdue, KSU, Okie State, and SMU.  He was good against us (when half our secondary was hurt), Tech, ISU, Kansas and Arkansas Pine Bluff.

I know he is talented.  But are we sure he's that great?  He is still young and did not practice much this summer.

He's not great, but I still remember us making him look great last year. 

Just can't combine with Sam having his worst game again.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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13 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

He's not great, but I still remember us making him look great last year. 

Just can't combine with Sam having his worst game again.

Don’t get me wrong, I won’t be surprised if he lights us up.  But looking at his game long, I won’t be surprised if we bust his ass up.  

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JBJ

JBJ 3647

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Posted
18 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

No. We cannot. 

I say let's do it anyway.

If we want to compete this year, pass defense needs to show a pulse and we need to get pressures.  Might as well happen in this game because shit doesn't get better.

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jinx

jinx 2635

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Posted
5 hours ago, TexanTraveling said:

Get the fuck of surly.

I am not sure who the "fuck of surly" would be, but doubt it would be a good prize.  Probably not South Austin's mom, since she is a bit worn, but this could be a good thread to discuss.

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