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Texas opens as a 16 point favorite v TCU

TexasMan

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13626

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ghost of Shag said:

Yeah I was told this same shit last week.

And last year.

And the decade prior.

Not that you're bitter.

There is no way in hell I would put any money on this game (or any Tom Herman game really). All possible outcomes seem equally likely.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50012

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Posted
15 hours ago, westexhorn said:

If we can manage to pressure him with the pass rush then we will win the game because their Oline is dog shit.  But that's only if they don't eat our dogshit linebackers first.

Turnovers are a big key for this tcu game.  A few big runs really inflated tcu's rushing yards allowed and helped Iowa State beat tcu.  But remember this was tcu's first game in 2020,  so I expect Fatterson to fix their defensive big play rushing mistakes..  Hopefully Yurcich/Herman don't get fooled by watching the tcu/ISU highlights and underestimate the tech rush defense.  TEXAS better put together a great offensive gameplan that stops using that terrible "12 Personnel Package".  Yurcich should try to confuse tcu more with shifting formations, crossing routes, and spread the field to open more holes.  This might be a better game for TEXAS to throw on early downs to help set up their run game and forget about the screen game.

Fatterson preaches to his guys that "TEXAS didn't want you" and "TEXAS is soft". Herman needs to tell his team that " tcu doesn't respect you and tcu thinks your soft -- Time to go out and kick some ass!!!" 🤘

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50012

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2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Turnovers are a big key for this tcu game.  A few big runs really inflated tcu's rushing yards allowed and helped Iowa State beat tcu.  But remember this was tcu's first game in 2020,  so I expect Fatterson to fix their defensive big play rushing mistakes..  Hopefully Yurcich/Herman don't get fooled by watching the tcu/ISU highlights and underestimate the tcu rush defense.  TEXAS better put together a great offensive gameplan that stops using that terrible "12 Personnel Package".  Yurcich should try to confuse tcu more with shifting formations, crossing routes, and spread the field to open more holes.  This might be a better game for TEXAS to throw on early downs to help set up their run game and forget about the screen game.

Fatterson preaches to his guys that "TEXAS didn't want you" and "TEXAS is soft". Herman needs to tell his team that " tcu doesn't respect you and tcu thinks your soft -- Time to go out and kick some ass!!!" 🤘

Freakin autocorrect.... FIFY      tcu rush defense

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50012

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Patterson explains why TCU RB Zach Evans didn't play Saturday

https://247sports.com/college/tcu/Article/Patterson-explains-Zach-Evans-didnt-play-Iowa-State-152178527/ 

“He just needs to learn the offense. He’s been out quite a bit with close contact,” Patterson said. “He’s missed probably almost a month with close contact. He hasn’t had Covid, but when you miss a month of work outs it’s hard to get into everything.”

“That’s the biggest thing that you have to accomplish is just get back in there. He had a good day of practice Sunday.”

But, Patterson noted that Evan will eventually get a chance to see what he can do in a game. TCU fans will eagerly wait when they time comes.

“As he keeps moving forward, if he keeps doing that he’ll have an opportunity to get in the ball game,” Patterson said. “We have five, one can do all of it and the other four can do certain parts of it. Being a running back is not just about carrying the football. It’s about pass protection, running the routes on the right plays and doing all the things you need to do. Those guys are all growing every day. We’re going to keep pushing them and they are all going to be good players. It’s probably one of the best groups we’ve ever had at that position.”

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50012

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Just finished watching the Iowa State vs tcu game.  Iowa state played much better than their first game, and tcu just gave up too many big plays.  Unfortunately, tcu is much better than I hoped at WR and RB, and Duggan looked pretty good at times.  The game vs TEXAS this Saturday is probably gonna be won in the trenches and turnovers.  No way the spread on this game should be 11 to 13pts... more like TEXAS by 7.

Hold on to your seats, Saturday's game will probably be a nail biter... 😁

Also:  Cooper probable for Texas

By.  JEREMY CLARK Sep 29, 2:16 PM

The other good news for now is the Frogs should be getting a key returner on defense this week against Texas with defensive tackle Terrell Cooper. Patterson stated he didn’t know how much Cooper would play, but he should be ready to go after missing Iowa State.  “He’s probably probable,” Patterson said of Cooper. “I don’t know how many plays but he’s probably probable.”   The Frogs’ defense missed Cooper’s run stopping ability against Iowa State last week. Against the Cyclones, the Frogs allowed touchdown runs of 75, 49 and 32 yards. Patterson stated last week that Cooper had been playing as good as any defensive tackle he’s had on campus the past ten years.

All the blame can’t be placed on the defensive line for the long runs according to Patterson. The coach was blunt in his statement regarding linebacker play, saying that the linebacker unit didn’t play well and has to get better.  “Overall, our linebackers didn’t play very well,” Patterson said. “A couple of those runs were probably linebacker problems, so we’ve got to make sure we play better.”  Although he didn’t play perfect, Patterson was particularly impressed with sophomore Dee Winters. Winters was second on the team last week with 8 tackles, which included five solo tackles. Patterson noticed a difference from a year ago and admitted Winters played the best of the linebackers on Saturday.  “He played better. He probably played the best of all of them, they played hard, but we’ve got to get to where we play smarter. But compared to where he was last year to where he is now, he’s going to be a really good player at that position. He can run and when you run, you can cover and hit somebody, you’re going to give yourself a chance.”

INCREASED ROLE FOR BROOKS?

Many Frog fans have asked why TCU used former five-star linebacker Marcel Brooks so little in the loss against Iowa State. Brooks finished with two tackles on the day and showed a high-motor on other plays.  Patterson says Brooks amount of play will be determined on how well practices go this week. He says the athletic linebacker will have a role this week against Texas.

“We’ll see how he practices; what he knows and doesn’t know. He will have a role in this ball game,” he said. “How big it is will be determined by what he knows and how much he can do.”

https://247sports.com/college/tcu/Article/TCU-players-tests-negative-for-COVID-Cooper-probable-for-Texas-152177241/

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ztejas

ztejas 44236

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How much of a leash does Patterson have left? Assuming they go 5-5 or thereabouts this season, does another season with less than 8 wins send him packing? 

He's under contract through 2022. So I would guess they let him coach that out. No way they extend him unless he can turn it around next year or the year after. Although it would be hilarious if they did. 

TCU doesn't have any history so they will probably be a bit too reluctant to let go of their only coach that brought them to national prominence.

Also, this from wiki:

TCU ranks as the 4th best private college football school of all time, behind Notre Dame, USC, and Miami-FL

michael jordan laughing GIF

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fellside

fellside 1136

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Posted
Just now, ztejas said:

How much of a leash does Patterson have left? Assuming they go 5-5 or thereabouts this season, does another season with less than 8 wins send him packing? 

He's under contract through 2022. So I would guess they let him coach that out. No way they extend him unless he can turn it around next year or the year after. Although it would be hilarious if they did. 

TCU doesn't have any history so they will probably be a bit too reluctant to let go of their only coach that brought them to national prominence.

He can do whatever he wants there.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50012

Posted
Posted (edited)

If you need a short version to watch replay of tcu/ISU game, here yah go...

Big play in tcu loss...

Two point lead for Iowa State -- Goofy play at 4:01 left in 4th qtr where tcu WR #4 drops easy pass and Iowa State LB makes a diving interception of the deflection off the tcu WR's knee...

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Longboard Horn

Longboard Horn 41369

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ztejas said:

How much of a leash does Patterson have left? Assuming they go 5-5 or thereabouts this season, does another season with less than 8 wins send him packing? 

He's under contract through 2022. So I would guess they let him coach that out. No way they extend him unless he can turn it around next year or the year after. Although it would be hilarious if they did. 

TCU doesn't have any history so they will probably be a bit too reluctant to let go of their only coach that brought them to national prominence.

Also, this from wiki:

TCU ranks as the 4th best private college football school of all time, behind Notre Dame, USC, and Miami-FL

michael jordan laughing GIF

 

1 hour ago, fellside said:

He can do whatever he wants there.

Patterson walks on water at TCU. He can go 4-8, 6-7, 5-7 like he’s done this decade and be perfectly fine job security wise. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50012

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Patterson explains why TCU RB Zach Evans didn't play Saturday

“He just needs to learn the offense. He’s been out quite a bit with close contact,” Patterson said. “He’s missed probably almost a month with close contact. He hasn’t had Covid, but when you miss a month of work outs it’s hard to get into everything.  That’s the biggest thing that you have to accomplish is just get back in there. He had a good day of practice Sunday.”  But, Patterson noted that Evan will eventually get a chance to see what he can do in a game. TCU fans will eagerly wait when they time comes.

“As he keeps moving forward, if he keeps doing that he’ll have an opportunity to get in the ball game,” Patterson said. “We have five, one can do all of it and the other four can do certain parts of it. Being a running back is not just about carrying the football. It’s about pass protection, running the routes on the right plays and doing all the things you need to do. Those guys are all growing every day. We’re going to keep pushing them and they are all going to be good players. It’s probably one of the best groups we’ve ever had at that position.”

 

 

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satyanash

satyanash 15638

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(Ian Boyd) Inside the gameplan: Avoiding the ire of Patterson

Quote

I’m not sure if there’s anything Gary Patterson likes more than beating Texas. The big Horned Frog has been coaching in Texas for a long time now, more than enough time to build up a competitive fire and scores of memories of slights and defeats on the field or recruiting trail. The TCU and Texas staffs have a real rivalry and the Frogs always circle this game on the calendar. While Patterson has come up empty against Lincoln Riley, he can still point to a 2-1 record against Tom Herman, thanks to his improbable 2019 win the Frogs locked in with fantastic halftime adjustments by Patterson and comparably horrendous blitz calls by Todd Orlando.

Quite a bit has changed since that encounter. After another weak season of offense, Gary Patterson reunited Doug Meacham to Sonny Cumbie and also brought in his old pal Jerry Kill to serve as a CEO over the offensive staff in an off-field role. Heading out the door were several NFL draft picks TCU had squandered. Wide receiver Jalen Reagor (first round), cornerback Jeff Gladney (first round), nose tackle Ross Blacklock (second round), offensive tackle Lucas Niang (third round), and safety Vernon Scott (seventh round). Observant readers will note that list includes three space force positions that normally would help put a Big 12 team over the top against their competition. You could see the differences in the crucial space matchups for the Frogs without those players on the field in their season opening defeat against Iowa State last Saturday.

The Cyclones took them down 37-34 with the Frogs scoring a touchdown in the final minute of the game but eschewing a chance at the backdoor cover (Iowa State -2.5). However it was 16-7 after the half when Patterson finally sent in the hope of Fort Worth, sophomore quarterback Max Duggan. The Frogs will be sending yet another athletic team with a better sense of how to get speed in space on offense into this battle with Tom Herman and they won't leave Duggan on the bench for half the game. It should prove a phenomenal test of how well Texas’ staff can learn their lessons from Lubbock.

Lubbock’s lessons

The strategy by Texas Tech’s defense last weekend was to try and compromise between stopping Texas’ run game while dealing with the stress of spread spacing by playing a lot of 3-4 defense and dropping their linebackers into space. When Texas properly attacked that misguided approach with RPOs, tempo, and 10 or 11 personnel sets it went poorly for the Red Raiders.

If you can put a 220+ pound linebacker into space and present him with run/pass conflicts then you often see him simply become a motionless object in space who doesn’t impact either the run or the pass. For instance:

Oops, wrong defense. The Texas offense did find times when this dynamic worked in their advantage as well:

Tech is in a 3-4 defense here with Colin Schooler on bottom playing as a Tampa 2 cornerback and Jacob Morgenstern (6-4, 220) playing in space as a nickel (much like Joe Ossai for Texas last year). If your linebackers aren’t Isaiah Simmons or otherwise quick in space, there’s not much point in these types of tactics. Look at how Juwan Mitchell was playing on the touchdown above (or countless other plays). He’s hopping in place to position himself to defend the pass or the run but he’s not committed to either and he’s not fast enough to split the difference and make an impact. He needs to be committed all the way to one or the other.

Or he needs to be Chris Adimora. If the middle linebacker’s job half the time is sitting in space and then closing on a run or pass from a distance then why isn’t he just a defensive back who has the speed to actually do the job? Eventually Texas started playing coverages that simplified Mitchell’s job to tracking the running back:

These are issues that will come up throughout the season. If you play your middle linebacker to the field against trips in a two-high defense, Big 12 teams will isolate him in space and attack him for four quarters. There are multiple potential solutions that would clear up the problem.

One is to mix in a dime package with Adimora as the middle linebacker and Anthony Cook or Xavion Alford at nickel. Another is to play lots of single-high man coverage as they ended up doing against Tech so Mitchell is matched on a running back or in the box. A third would be to flip the linebackers (they did this once or twice) and play Overshown to the trips side and Mitchell in the box. Texas spun an ultra rangy and athletic safety down to linebacker and then regularly had him in the box while Juwan Mitchell was asked to play in space against Texas Tech’s run/pass conflicts.

On offense, Texas is still nailing down their identity and who exactly they want to be. They should be a pass-first unit attacking teams like Tech did, attacking limited athletes in space by making them track and tackle speedsters like Josh Moore or close and stop momentum by bigger backs like Keaontay Ingram and Roschon Johnson. Texas clearly missed their top two slot receivers in this game and Ehlinger couldn’t consistently find Brenden Schooler.

Jake Smith is expected back for the TCU game and if he’s on form and in good rhythm with Ehlinger it could be an enormous boon in making more of Ehlinger's arm and expertise.

Beating the Frogs

With the hire of Chris Ash, a major distinction in defensive tactics between the Longhorns and Horned Frogs is now gone. Gary Patterson’s defense has been running the 4-2-5 for a long time now and has a similar approach on the back end to Ash. The name of the game for the Frogs is always emphasis on playing man coverage with the cornerbacks outside the numbers and flooding the interior with athletes who have been carefully trained and developed by Patterson and his staff to scout, gameplan, and choke out opponents’ go-to plays with precision and fundamentals.

They play things much differently up front. Where Ash utilizes big, powerful defensive linemen executing some two-gapping and pushing offensive linemen around, the Frogs are all about movement and gap exchanges between quick D-linemen and linebackers that are generally more like hard-nosed box safeties.

On offense, TCU has wandered in the wilderness the last few years due in part to some poor designs and moreso because of the constant turnover they’ve had at quarterback. The Frogs seemed doomed to another year starting over when Max Duggan was diagnosed with a heart condition during COVID screening but he was able to quickly resolve the issue and took the field in the second half against Iowa State. He completed 16-19 passes for 241 yards at 12.7 ypa and three touchdowns to one interception.

With Doug Meacham calling the plays again but Sonny Cumbie still present to help fashion a talent like Duggan, the Frogs looked much stronger against Iowa State than we’ve seen of late. Duggan’s two meaningful touchdown passes both occurred as a result of using some formational trickery and tempo to attack the structure of the Iowa State defense. Exhibit A:

Four verticals from a 4x1 formation and the Cyclones lost track of tight end Artayvious Lynn (happened a couple of times) for an easy pitch and catch over the middle. Exhibit B:

The Frogs have a lot of speed and athleticism on their roster every year, but they’ve lacked the infrastructure and system to make opponents have to deal with it consistently. But that seems to be changing with their offensive staff bolstered by Meacham and Duggan calmly distributing the ball and snatching up the free candy Meacham has already scattered across the field for him.

They have flaws though, many of which the Cyclones were able to attack in their 37-34 victory that was really more commanding then the score suggested. Far and away the biggest flaw in this TCU team is at offensive tackle. Redshirt senior Austin Myers was conclusively demonstrated to be a non-tackle in their opener against the Cyclones, who have perhaps the best pass-rush in the Big 12.

As bad as this looks, these are not the top edge-rushing defensive ends for the Cyclones but big Eyioma Uwazurike and Zach Petersen. The main weapons are JaQuan Bailey (3.5 sacks in this one) and Will McDonald (one sack). The alternative tackles for TCU are redshirt freshman right tackle Andrew Coker, Colorado transfer TJ Storment, and true sophomore JUCO transfer Brandon Coleman. Of the six sacks they yielded to Iowa State, three were directly on Myers while the other three were from a combination of failures by Coker and Storment or the center Esteban Avila.

So here’s the heart of the issue for TCU. They have speed in their skill positions and competence at quarterback, but their receiving corps is short on experience at getting open against good coverage when the scheme isn’t doing it for them and the offensive line cannot hold up for long against a good pass-rush. Should Texas opt to lean heavily into man coverage against the Frogs to avoid receivers running free and give Joseph Ossai a green light to do his thing off the edge, it’s unlikely TCU can match up.

The TCU defense always tends to change a bit from year to year as Patterson leans on different playmakers across the unit but there are a few consistent themes. Attacking the Frog defense always comes down to throwing some wrinkles at them, generating hesitation, and bringing a balanced approach. Their whole approach is geared around swarming your tendencies with speed, here’s the 2020 lineup:

image.png

They’re quick and either average or undersized at every position and they’re more experienced this year than in some previous seasons. Iowa State ran over them with two-back stretch zone schemes that blew holes through the front the safeties couldn’t plug and they made some plays on the perimeter against man coverage. Their big plays on stretch schemes illustrate the struggles the Frogs always have with misdirection and conflict:

Iowa State popped the Frogs a couple of times with this scheme. It’s midzone/stretch blocking but with the backside tackle blocking back and the tight end insert blocking on the backside of the play.

image.png

Texas now has some designs just like this in their run game as well thanks to Mike Yurcich. TCU likes to have their linebackers track tight ends and fullbacks since they tend to create immediate gaps to be filled and then shore up behind them with the safeties. Iowa State’s motion threw them out of whack though and the linebackers rocking back to take on the tight end’s lead block left them with no defender to the playside against the main zone scheme.

Texas’ concern in this game will be that Patterson will have their run game, and previous run schemes employed by Mike Yurcich, well scouted and instilled in his players to avoid problems like this. The Longhorns will need to mix in a lot of tempo, use the RPO to create hesitation so the Frogs aren’t all racing to the ball, and finally they need to be ready to do damage on the perimeter. Teams that have given Patterson fits this decade are the ones who can beat his corners down the field in the 1-on-1 matchups his schemes regularly yield on standard downs while he tries to snuff out your run game.

For Iowa State, young Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson was their preferred target and they beat him with a couple of deep shots. Patterson deploys LaDanian Tomlinson’s nephew as the field corner, so if you want to take advantage of him being isolated out in space you need a quarterback that can hit targets at long range. Pump fake Purdy was juuuuuust able to pull it off.

The easiest way to beat TCU would be for Sam Ehlinger to successfully land shots to the Z receiver (Josh Moore) down the field on Hodges-Tomlinson, so one of the game’s most crucial matchups will be between the two smallest people on the field. If Texas wins the Hodges-Tomlinson vs. Moore bout the structure of the Frog defense will be compromised. If they have to start shading safety help in his direction it would limit their ability to defend the run.

Barring that though, the Frogs have also shown a consistent struggle in recent years against the good ol’ zone-option. Texas worked over TCU in 2018 on one drive by mixing in Sam Ehlinger in the run game. If Herman is willing to risk giving him 12 or more carries the week before the Shootout that’s an easy way to generate consistent offense.

With Jake Smith returning and Texas fresh off a victory that was achieved by Sam Ehlinger finding burners Josh Moore and Brennan Eagles outside against 1-on-1s, the biggest win in this game would be to save Ehlinger for the Sooners and knock out the Frogs by beating their athletes in space with the passing game.

TCU has always been tough on defense and are now wising up on the offensive side of the ball, but they're young across the board and lacking pro-ready experienced athletes in the space force (offensive tackle, wide receiver, cornerback, defensive end). This is the year for the Longhorns to finally match them in space and whip them with execution.

 

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markstanco

markstanco 12804

Posted
Posted
Better question: how many Zach Evanses would you trade for one Bijan Robinson?
Hes been out for a MONTH for covid. Yea right. He is obviously still a punk and a bad influence around team members. Even if the month deal is correct that means he is being selfish and doing what he wants outside of football.
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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19230

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, texifornia said:

EjVlgXtXsAI6A01?format=jpg&name=small

Playing against Evans and Brooks is gonna be pretty weird. Also Fuck Patterson. He’ll take all the domestic abusers he can get if they’re good at football. 
 

38 minutes ago, Zeus said:

I'm praying that Jake Smith is our Kavontae Turpin for 4 years

I guess that makes Jake Smith’s girlfriend an atheist. 

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ztejas

ztejas 44236

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Zeus said:

image.png.8c9ed6dfaf29458a1debbe94eaa0c0d1.png

 

Maybe he was confused because there was linemen downfield

He was confused because he couldn't remember which play he had agreed with BJ to walk out on after it was over.

(I jest, for all the hate he gets Mitchell had at least one good play in overtime iirc)

Edited by ztejas
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tejas60

tejas60 3570

Posted
Posted

as of right now, I'm not playing this game. but for those that are thinking about it:

 

 TEXAS -11.5

TCU @ TEXAS | 10/03 | 11:00 AM CDT
 

The Frogs historically have been a thorn for Texas, including last year when they ended the Longhorns' thin Big 12 title hopes. But this is a tough spot for a TCU club that is a little undermanned by its standards and facing a Texas team that narrowly escaped a disastrous upset loss at Texas Tech last week. The Longhorns might still struggle with Oklahoma next week, but they should be focused and poised for the dress rehearsal. Look for Sam Ehlinger and friends to put up plenty of offense and pull away.

6-1 IN LAST 7 CFB PICKS | +490

15-3 IN LAST 18 TEXAS ATS PICKS | +1170

4-1 IN LAST 5 TCU ATS PICKS | +296

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satyanash

satyanash 15638

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Posted (edited)

This is a very worrying game. In Big 12 action Patterson has never allowed us to score more than 31 points, he knows very well how to shut down our offense. And Sam will be playing through injury. We desperately need improvement from the defense if this is going to be one for the W column.

Edited by satyanash
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texifornia

texifornia 59023

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, satyanash said:

This is a very worrying game. In Big 12 action Patterson has never allowed us to score more than 31 points, he knows very well how to shut down our offense. And Sam will be playing through injury. We desperately need improvement from the defense if this is going to be one for the W column.

Perfect

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Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 20060

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, satyanash said:

This is a very worrying game. In Big 12 action Patterson has never allowed us to score more than 31 points, he knows very well how to shut down our offense. And Sam will be playing through injury. We desperately need improvement from the defense if this is going to be one for the W column.

 

15 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Perfect

Yea name one that isn't for you.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15555

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, satyanash said:

This is a very worrying game. In Big 12 action Patterson has never allowed us to score more than 31 points, he knows very well how to shut down our offense. And Sam will be playing through injury. We desperately need improvement from the defense if this is going to be one for the W column.

Sam was so injured he scored 22 points in the final 4 minutes against Texas Tech. 

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