Fuck Big 12 refs

[statsman 5470]

(Which will make it funny as hell when LSU and USC jump them)

[DFW Horn 6124]

11 hours ago, PvilleStang said:

Last night, around 8:12 in the clip above, during Miss / Miss State, same scenario, except it was called a backwards pass, and ruled a turnover after the fact.  They said repeatedly on the broadcast, a sideways pass is ruled a backwards pass, end of story.  Was beyond pissed when there was not even an attempt at the review during our game!

"They" meaning announcers who don't really know the NCAA rule book or the officials' mechanics. 

Ole Miss got screwed on this call. Even the players thought it was a dead ball. Especially since it allegedly included an "inadvertent whistle" by one of the flanks who ruled the pass incomplete. This SEC crew blew this one badly.

With no instant replay, the down should've been replayed. It's amazing to me they'd screw this one up so badly with access to multiple camera angles. You can't definitively say this pass was backwards. 

[Jkwellborn 6702]

(Which will make it funny as hell when LSU and USC jump them)

LSU has about a 0% chance of making the playoff. They would have have to win out and have help.

[Laxtonto 12080]

2 hours ago, statsman said:

OK, math nerds (Huck, help?)

Statistical tests are used and accepted in US courts to establish (not “prove”) evidence of discrimination, with said evidence (if the test confidence is high enough) enough to drive judgments. 
 
What would the right test be here?

The “null hypothesis” is “Texas (and OU?) are officiated the same as all other Big XII teams”? Accept or reject and with what confidence?

I’m thinking- take all Big XII league games and count holding penalties, and average them per game, and get std deviation. Then, take the (n=9, or 8 if the RRS is excluded) holding calls on Texas in league games, and use the t-test for small sample sizes. You could do the same with holding calls on opponents and test both. (Actually, opponent calls might be better, because it removes the counter argument that Texas just holds more- even though we have seen the quality of “holds” called on Texas on the OSU scramble by Ewers and the canceled TD against KU)
 
Does that sound like the right approach?

Bunch of different ones you could use. Simplest one is just test population vs a sample mean. Find mean and standard deviation of our called holding per game against and compare it to the population average. 
 

You could compare our holds called per game in league play vs that for the league average. You could compare the weekly difference of penalties (total or just holds) and compare it to the average game difference in conference play.

Here is a basic grad level primer on statistical tests with examples. You either want one population tests (UT vs conf) or multivarite one population tests (holds for and against for UT games vs holds for and against per game for the conference).

 

https://fmipa.umri.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/David_J._Sheskin_David_Sheskin_Handbook_of_ParaBookFi.org_.pdf

[DFW Horn 6124]

4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Bunch of different ones you could use. Simplest one is just test population vs a sample mean. Find mean and standard deviation of our called holding per game against and compare it to the population average. 
 

You could compare our holds called per game in league play vs that for the league average. You could compare the weekly difference of penalties (total or just holds) and compare it to the average game difference in conference play.

Here is a basic grad level primer on statistical tests with examples. You either want one population tests (UT vs conf) or multivarite one population tests (holds for and against for UT games vs holds for and against per game for the conference).

 

https://fmipa.umri.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/David_J._Sheskin_David_Sheskin_Handbook_of_ParaBookFi.org_.pdf

Our quality control coaches have gotta be compiling film clips of bad/non calls to be shared with the Big 12 office weekly. I'd be very surprised if every team doesn't have somebody responsible for this initiative. Now, what the Big 12 office does with the information is a mystery. Mostly CYA and "shut up, don't embarrass the league" mandates.

It's a shame we can't "scratch" the bad crews, but it is what it is.

[Nivek 16930]

Counterpoint: “Unsportsmanlike conduct, Texas bench.”
I think working the refs has an effect, in general. I don’t think there’s anything Sarkisian, CDC, or anyone in burnt orange can say that’s going to make the Big 12 accommodate the wishes of departing members, all the more so with a CFP spot on the line. 

They fucked us out of a NC game in 2008. They don’t give a shit about the post season.

Complaining publicly might give some attention but recall how the b12 office handled the taunting horns down/horns up issue. They kept it in the media churn to make a simple request for clarity into a mountain.

[Laxtonto 12080]

3 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Our quality control coaches have gotta be compiling film clips of bad/non calls to be shared with the Big 12 office weekly. I'd be very surprised if every team doesn't have somebody responsible for this initiative. Now, what the Big 12 office does with the information is a mystery. Mostly CYA and "shut up, don't embarrass the league" mandates.

It's a shame we can't "scratch" the bad crews, but it is what it is.

If the QC team is sending reports to the B12 office, would they be subject to FOIA requests? Now that would be something that would make a great article (hint hint to all you fucking 9.95ers reading this website looking for shit to steal and call your own… )

[DFW Horn 6124]

1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

If the QC team is sending reports to the B12 office, would they be subject to FOIA requests? Now that would be something that would make a great article (hint hint to all you fucking 9.95ers reading this website looking for shit to steal and call your own… )

That reads like something @Randolph Duke should pursue.

[Eskimohorn 5635]

Our quality control coaches have gotta be compiling film clips of bad/non calls to be shared with the Big 12 office weekly. I'd be very surprised if every team doesn't have somebody responsible for this initiative. Now, what the Big 12 office does with the information is a mystery. Mostly CYA and "shut up, don't embarrass the league" mandates.
It's a shame we can't "scratch" the bad crews, but it is what it is.

Send film clips to the Big12 office?

[DFW Horn 6124]

1 minute ago, Eskimohorn said:

Send film clips to the Big12 office?

aka The Black Hole

Yeah, I know, I really shouldn't torture myself with the obvious, rational response to Big 12 officials' fuckery.

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

41 minutes ago, Nivek said:

They fucked us out of a NC game in 2008. They don’t give a shit about the post season.

Complaining publicly might give some attention but recall how the b12 office handled the taunting horns down/horns up issue. They kept it in the media churn to make a simple request for clarity into a mountain.

The game OU played in, you mean?

[wood 11225]

3 hours ago, Nueces River Rat said:

This is a big part why we keep on getting screwed by certain Ref crews like this one against Baylor/Okie State and the ones who called our games against UTSA and Bama.    We haven’t had a coach since Mack who would ride the Refs all game long when the first instances of idiocy was revealed from a particular ref crew.  Mack and Dykes are old school with this and some of the newer generation of coaches have picked it up like Campbell.   While others like Sark and our prior two are not and they had plenty of opportunities to get on board. 

Were the Cowboy and Rapelor games reffed by the same crew? In those 2 games we had a total of 19 penalties for 138 yards while the other teams had 1 for 2 yards. Interesting ...

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

2 minutes ago, wood said:

Were the Cowboy and Rapelor games reffed by the same crew? In those 2 games we had a total of 19 penalties for 138 yards while the other teams had 1 for 2 yards. Interesting ...

Yes, they were. 

[wood 11225]

1 minute ago, Doc Daneeka said:

Yes, they were. 

Welp ... wow. 

[Dennis Taylor 18824]

1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

 

It's a shame we can't "scratch" the bad crews, but it is what it is.

There'd be none left 

[closetohumping 17442]

That final three yard penalty was an insult.  We ain’t fooled!!

[SquishMitten 10408]

4 hours ago, Nueces River Rat said:

This is a big part why we keep on getting screwed by certain Ref crews like this one against Baylor/Okie State and the ones who called our games against UTSA and Bama.    We haven’t had a coach since Mack who would ride the Refs all game long when the first instances of idiocy was revealed from a particular ref crew.  Mack and Dykes are old school with this and some of the newer generation of coaches have picked it up like Campbell.   While others like Sark and our prior two are not and they had plenty of opportunities to get on board. 

If I recall correctly, Patterson never had an issue with getting in a ref’s face. Task him with the job

[Pato del Muerto 52498]

So did any media ask postgame if the Baylor dline was barking all game and causing false starts, or if they just decided to do it that one time near their goal line and got caught?

[thunderlounge 7832]

4 hours ago, Nueces River Rat said:

Since then we get Ref crews like this one who chose to screw us either in obvious in your face ways such as a disparity in penalties called like this years Okie State game.

We’re pretty much getting either that fred armisen looking mother fucker or that down syndrome potato conductor bastards crew.

And we all know how those go.

[Damor 1236]

2 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

Send film clips to the Big12 office?

At this point, I think it would be just as effective and infinitely more cathartic to compile them into a montage to be shown at our final Big 12 press conference, set to "My Heart Will Go On," "The Way We Were," and whatever else we can come up with to fill the 3hr run time.  Open to suggestions.

[DFW Horn 6124]

 

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

3 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

If I recall correctly, Patterson never had an issue with getting in a ref’s face. Task him with the job

Patterson nearly stroked out a few times and at least ate a few hand towels. 

[Jkwellborn 6702]

At this point, I think it would be just as effective and infinitely more cathartic to compile them into a montage to be shown at our final Big 12 press conference, set to "My Heart Will Go On," "The Way We Were," and whatever else we can come up with to fill the 3hr run time.  Open to suggestions.

Use out of ashes.

[TrashMaster G 17557]

9 hours ago, wood said:

Were the Cowboy and Rapelor games reffed by the same crew? In those 2 games we had a total of 19 penalties for 138 yards while the other teams had 1 for 2 yards. Interesting ...

1 yard

[Godzillatron 292]

"They" meaning announcers who don't really know the NCAA rule book or the officials' mechanics. 
Ole Miss got screwed on this call. Even the players thought it was a dead ball. Especially since it allegedly included an "inadvertent whistle" by one of the flanks who ruled the pass incomplete. This SEC crew blew this one badly.
With no instant replay, the down should've been replayed. It's amazing to me they'd screw this one up so badly with access to multiple camera angles. You can't definitively say this pass was backwards. 

Is it too much to ask for consistency in how the rules are applied? Because, based on evidence, there is no acceptable standard on what the fuck the rules mean.

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:59 AM, wood said:

Were the Cowboy and Rapelor games reffed by the same crew? In those 2 games we had a total of 19 penalties for 138 yards while the other teams had 1 for 2 yards. Interesting ...

I found it interesting in the Baylor game we were flagged 5 for 19 yards from that same crew that flagged us repeatedly at Okie State for 120  yards.  And most of these penalties in the Baylor game were from false starts and two or three by the same linemen.  That doesn’t make sense either other than an agenda was at play in that Okie State game.  

[Nivek 16930]

23 hours ago, Godzillatron said:

Is it too much to ask for consistency in how the rules are applied? Because, based on evidence, there is no acceptable standard on what the fuck the rules mean.

yes.  With consistency being the standard, the fuckery is minimized.  

[JesusSweatDuck 17781]

Anyone know if this stat is accurate? 

 

 

[thunderlounge 7832]

It’s accurate. Highly accurate. 

[Eskimohorn 5635]

When you look at subjective calls against Texas since 2014, it would shock most people. When Herman was asked about the 10:1 (or something like that) PI ratio against his team, he replied that his receivers needed to attract more penalties.

One explanation is that our players lack fundamentals. Its not out of the realm of possibility that JAGS like Tristan Nicholson and Denzel Okafor were so lacking in technique and athleticism that they were unable to engage defenders except with a desperate and obvious hold.

Further, you could look at our 2021 secondary and see defenders panicking to find the ball, often committing blatant fouls.

But a combination of sight and statistics tell a story of systemic bias against Texas.

Betting on Texas more likely than not means being defrauded by the Big12, either willfully or willfully ignorant.

[bigcigar 1164]

3 hours ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Anyone know if this stat is accurate? 

 

 

Maybe we can get the TCU punter to transfer in as an EDGE. He’s sure to manufacture some holds.

Edited November 29, 2022 by bigcigar

[markstanco 12577]

It’s accurate. Highly accurate. 

I wonder what the calls were in NonCon games without B12 officials for holding.

[sidis 9828]

Yes, he is correct if he means offensive holding calls.  Here is a rundown of penalties that were thrown against our opponents:

Louisiana-Monroe: 7 total  - 1. Delay of Game; 2. False Start; 3. Delay of Game; 4. Unnecessary Roughness; 5. Late Hit; 6. Face Mask; 7. Late Hit.  Texas had 5 penalties.

Alabama: 15 total  - 1. Holding on a Kickoff; 2. False Start; 3. Offsides; 4. Offsides; 5. Face Mask; 6. Roughing the Passer; 7. False Start; 8. False Start; 9. Offsides; 10. Pass Interference; 11. Pass Interference; 12. Late Hit; 13. Illegal Block in the Back; 14. Illegal Substitution; 15. Face Mask.  Texas had 5 penalties.  Notably, huge face mask miss and huge hold miss on Alabama that gave them the game.

UTSA: 11 total, 1 declined, 10 net  - 1. Illegal Shift; 2. False Start; 3. Offsides; 4. Offsides; 5. Offsides; 6. False Start; 7. False Start; 8. Delay of Game; 9. Illegal Formation; 10. Illegal Touching.  Texas had 9 penalties.

Texas Tech: 5 total  - 1. False Start; 2. Offensive Holding; 3. False Start; 4. Pass interference; 5. Pass Interference.  Texas had 5 penalties.  Of note: only one penalty in the second half for TTU.

West Virginia: 5 total, 1 declined, 4 net  - 1. False Start; 2. Pass Interference; 3. Face Mask; 4. Unnecessary Roughness.  Texas had 7 penalties.  Of note: no penalties in the second half for WVU. 

OU SUCKS: 3 total  - 1. Pass Interference; 2. Unsportsmanlike Conduct; 3. False Start.  Texas had 2 penalties.

Iowa State: 6 total  - 1. False Start; 2. Delay of Game; 3. Illegal Snap; 4. Roughing the Passer; 5. False Start; 6. Illegal Substitution.  Texas had 4 penalties.  Of note: only one penalty in the second half for ISU.

Oklahoma State: 1 total, 1 declined, 0 net.  Texas had 14 penalties.  Absurd.

Kansas State: 9 total  - 1. Targeting; 2. Offsides; 3. Offensive Holding; 4. Personal Foul; 5. False Start; 6. False Start; 7. Unnecessary Roughness; 8. Defensive Holding; 9. False Start.  Texas had 7 penalties.

TCU: 5 total  - 1. False Start; 2. Delay of Game; 3. Holding on Punt Return; 4. Pass Interference; 5. Pass Interference.  Texas had 7 penalties.

Kansas: 5 total; 1 offset, 4 net  - 1. Offsides; 2. Ineligible Man Downfield; 3. Pass Interference; 4. Face Mask.  Texas had 4 penalties.

Baylor: 1 total - 1. Defensive Delay of Game.  Texas had 5 penalties.

 

Out of conference games: Opponents averaged 11 penalties per game against us.  

In Big 12 play: Opponents averaged 3.8 penalties per game against us.

Order of penalties called against opponents ranked: 

1. False Start (18) (11 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

2. Pass Interference (9) (7 in Big 12 play) - Subjective

3. Offsides (8) (2 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

4. Delay of Game (6) (3 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

5. Unnecessary Roughness/Unsportsmanlike/Targeting - (6) (5 in Big 12 play) - Subjective-ish

6. Face Mask (5) (3 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

7. Late Hit Out of Bounds (3) (0 in Big 12 play) - Subjective-ish

8. Special Teams Holding (2) (1 in Big 12 play) - Subjective

9. Illegal Substitution (2) (1 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

10. Offensive Holding (2) (2 in Big 12 play) - Subjective

11. Roughing the Passer (2) (1 in Big 12 play) - Subjective-ish

12. Ineligible Man Downfield (1) (1 in Big 12 play) - Subjective in the sense that this was probably a bad, makeup call for bad holding call in previous drive.

13. Defensive Delay of Game (1) (1 in Big 12 play) - Subjective

14. Special Teams Illegal Block in the Back (1) (0 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

15. Illegal Shift (1) (0 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

16. Illegal Touching (1) (0 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

17. Illegal Formation (1) (0 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

 

One more comparison to make...a comparison of each opponents average penalties per game compared to those called against them in Texas Game:

Team           Average           Against Texas

ULM                 5                       7

Alabama          8.5                    15

UTSA               6.9                    10

TTU                 5.6                     5

WVU                6.5                     4

OU(sucks)       5.6                     3

ISU                   5.8                     6

OSU                 3.7                     0

KSU                  5.5                     9

TCU                  4.8                     5

KU                    5.5                      4

BU                    4.5                      1

Big 12 opponents averaged 5.3 penalties per game and 4.1 against Texas.  This disparity is understated because the 5.3 includes the games against Texas. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by sidis

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

9 minutes ago, sidis said:

Yes, he is correct if he means offensive holding calls.  Here is a rundown of penalties that were thrown against our opponents:

Louisiana-Monroe: 7 total  - 1. Delay of Game; 2. False Start; 3. Delay of Game; 4. Unnecessary Roughness; 5. Late Hit; 6. Face Mask; 7. Late Hit.  Texas had 5 penalties.

Alabama: 15 total  - 1. Holding on a Kickoff; 2. False Start; 3. Offsides; 4. Offsides; 5. Face Mask; 6. Roughing the Passer; 7. False Start; 8. False Start; 9. Offsides (also Illegal Substitution Declined); 10. Pass Interference; 11. Pass Interference; 12. Late Hit; 13. Illegal Block in the Back; 14. Illegal Substitution; 15. Face Mask.  Texas had 5 penalties.  Notably, huge face mask miss and huge hold miss on Alabama that gave them the game.

UTSA: 11 total, 1 declined, 10 net  - 1. Illegal Shift; 2. False Start; 3. Offsides; 4. Offsides; 5. Offsides; 6. False Start; 7. False Start; 8. Delay of Game; 9. Illegal Formation; 10. Illegal Touching.  Texas had 9 penalties.

Texas Tech: 5 total  - 1. False Start; 2. Offensive Holding; 3. False Start; 4. Pass interference; 5. Pass Interference.  Texas had 5 penalties.  Of note: only one penalty in the second half for TTU.

West Virginia: 5 total, 1 declined, 4 net  - 1. False Start; 2. Pass Interference; 3. Face Mask; 4. Unnecessary Roughness.  Texas had 7 penalties.  Of note: no penalties in the second half for WVU. 

OU SUCKS: 3 total  - 1. Pass Interference; 2. Unsportsmanlike Conduct; 3. False Start.  Texas had 2 penalties.

Iowa State: 6 total  - 1. False Start; 2. Delay of Game; 3. Illegal Snap; 4. Roughing the Passer; 5. False Start; 6. Illegal Substitution.  Texas had 4 penalties.  Of note: only one penalty in the second half for ISU.

Oklahoma State: 1 total, 1 declined, 0 net.  Texas had 14 penalties.  Absurd.

Kansas State: 9 total  - 1. Targeting; 2. Offsides; 3. Offensive Holding; 4. Personal Foul; 5. False Start; 6. False Start; 7. Unnecessary Roughness; 8. Defensive Holding; 9. False Start.  Texas had 7 penalties.

TCU: 5 total  - 1. False Start; 2. Delay of Game; 3. Holding on Punt Return; 4. Pass Interference; 5. Pass Interference.  Texas had 7 penalties.

Kansas: 5 total; 1 offset, 4 net  - 1. Offsides; 2. Ineligible Man Downfield; 3. Pass Interference; 4. Face Mask.  Texas had 4 penalties.

Baylor: 1 total - 1. Defensive Delay of Game.  Texas had 5 penalties.

 

Out of conference games: Opponents averaged 11 penalties per game against us.  

In Big 12 play: Opponents averaged 3.8 penalties per game against us.

Order of penalties called against opponents ranked: 

1. False Start (18) (11 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

2. Pass Interference (9) (7 in Big 12 play) - Subjective

3. Offsides (8) (2 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

4. Delay of Game (6) (3 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

5. Unnecessary Roughness/Unsportsmanlike/Targeting - (6) (5 in Big 12 play) - Subjective-ish

6. Face Mask (5) (3 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

7. Late Hit Out of Bounds (3) (0 in Big 12 play) - Subjective-ish

8. Special Teams Holding (2) (1 in Big 12 play) - Subjective

9. Illegal Substitution (2) (1 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

10. Offensive Holding (2) (2 in Big 12 play) - Subjective

11. Roughing the Passer (2) (1 in Big 12 play) - Subjective-ish

12. Ineligible Man Downfield (1) (1 in Big 12 play) - Subjective in the sense that this was probably a bad, makeup call for bad holding call in previous drive.

13. Defensive Delay of Game (1) (1 in Big 12 play) - Subjective

14. Special Teams Illegal Block in the Back (1) (0 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

15. Illegal Shift (1) (0 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

16. Illegal Touching (1) (0 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

17. Illegal Formation (1) (0 in Big 12 play) - Not Subjective

 

This reads like an indictment.   Get us out now!

[sidis 9828]

can't find a stat for college football but the NFL in 2021 had 2.4 holding calls per game with a standard deviation of 0.6. (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/penalties.htm)  if the college game were assumed to be the same, i will let @Huckleberry tell you the probability of a team's opponents averaging 0.16667 holding calls per game.

[Huckleberry 32861]

1 minute ago, sidis said:

can't find a stat for college football but the NFL in 2021 had 2.4 holding calls per game with a standard deviation of 0.6. (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/penalties.htm)  if the college game were assumed to be the same, i will let @Huckleberry tell you the probability of a team's opponents averaging 0.16667 holding calls per game.

Is that 2.4 per team or total?

[sidis 9828]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Is that 2.4 per team or total?

total

[CTC2 2797]

I like how the supposed best crew of the Big 12 totally screwed us against Alabama, Texas complains to the conference with video proof, conference quietly agrees to ban the crew from our games the rest of the season, and its not a story.   .  

[babysdaddy 2724]

Im not a statistician but that seems to be over 3 standard deviations which means the probability is less than .03% that could happen in one game….much less 9. I’m certain I’m wrong though

[babysdaddy 2724]

I like how the supposed best crew of the Big 12 totally screwed us against Alabama, Texas complains to the conference with video proof, conference quietly agrees to ban the crew from our games the rest of the season, and its not a story.   .  

Did this happen? The complaining with video proof? And then no mas?

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

It’s not even just the raw numbers. It’s the ones that kill Texas big plays or scores or that aren’t called on similar plays by opponents. 

[Huckleberry 32861]

Well either way the answer appears to be "impossible" with those numbers but I'm just napkin mathing it so who knows.

[sidis 9828]

8 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Im not a statistician but that seems to be over 3 standard deviations which means the probability is less than .03% that could happen in one game….much less 9. I’m certain I’m wrong though

not quite right.  have to split it in half (assuming an even split of holding calls) and thus it only takes two standard deviations to round down to 0 holding penalties in a single game.  but across 12, it is astronomically impossible.

 

7 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Did this happen? The complaining with video proof? And then no mas?

it is true that Scott Campbell's crew did not do another Texas game this year after Alabama.  no idea about the complaints, etc...  Last year Campbell's crew did OU (disastrous officiating in that one) and WVU.

This year, Kevin Mar's crew did Baylor and Okie State (which had one total penalty called against our opponent in 8 quarters).  That crew needs to be investigated.

Michael Vandervelde's crew did TCU and WVU.

David Alvarez's crew did Tech. 

Derek Anderson's crew did OU.

Tuta Salaam's crew did ISU.

Steve Baron's crew did KSU.

Kevin Boitmann's crew did KU.

[Nivek 16930]

Don’t count out the spots. It seemed Baylor had to get 8.5 yards to gain a first down while Texas needed 11.5 yards.

[Magus Ossis 2800]

Mar’s day job is apparently as an orthopedic surgical equipment sales rep in Nebraska.

[JBJ 3654]

12 hours ago, sidis said:

can't find a stat for college football but the NFL in 2021 had 2.4 holding calls per game with a standard deviation of 0.6. (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/penalties.htm)  if the college game were assumed to be the same, i will let @Huckleberry tell you the probability of a team's opponents averaging 0.16667 holding calls per game.

Holding is the most common NFL penalty.

It's more frequent in the NCAA at around 3 per game, but false starts overtake holding as the most common penalty.

Edited November 29, 2022 by JBJ

[JBJ 3654]

11 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

Im not a statistician but that seems to be over 3 standard deviations which means the probability is less than .03% that could happen in one game….much less 9. I’m certain I’m wrong though

It's not that simple because of a small-ish sample size.

I think the right way to do this would be offensive/return snaps per penalty and a binomial distribution.

However, even if we go really simple and conservative: say there's a 60% chance of a team getting a hold in any game.  Over 9 games with only 2 called, it's below the 3rd percentile.

 

[JBJ 3654]

Maybe more realistic: 2 calls in 400 snaps at 30 snaps per penalty is 1.4th percentile.

Any way you look at it, it's either extremely rare/unlucky or something else.

Edited November 29, 2022 by JBJ

[sidis 9828]

1 hour ago, JBJ said:

Holding is the most common NFL penalty.

It's more frequent in the NCAA at around 3 per game, but false starts overtake holding as the most common penalty.

yeah, it would make sense that cfb would have a higher incident rate of the braindead penalties like false starts than the nfl...given they are professionals.

i couldn't find a source for 3 per game in cfb so i just used nfl.  regardless, the probability is infinitely small to have 2 offensive holding calls in 12 games.

[Pato del Muerto 52498]

Big12 crews weren’t responsible for all 12 games were they?