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Brick and Mortar retail is slowly dying


Parliament

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I had some fun yesterday.

One of my jobs is selling art online. I needed more storage space for about 100 small paintings, you can't just stack them. Once at Walmart I found some kind of dish drainer that works well as a Painting Storage Rack. It's the only one that ever worked right. So I go to Wally World to get some more Right Now.

Walmart was all Poor People Shuffling Slowly. I didn't see the rack I wanted, so, out of a sense of morbid fascination, I approached two workers who were interrupting their conversation about a chicken place to place items on a shelf, to see if they had seen any other racks.

The one with asymmetrically-placed false eyelashes came over to me. "Huuuuuuh... you wanna rack...." She had her phone out, Johnny-on-the-spot no doubt checking Walmart inventory. Then I saw that on her phone was the face of her coworker two aisles away, sharing a bon mot. "huuuuh... I'on know...."

The child wandered off with her phone. She's the one who beat the other candidates at the job interview.

I swung by Target to see if they had the same rack that I could get Right Now. Target was all Middle-Class People Being Important, clipping along with their butts tucked in planning the assault on Pointe du Hoc on their phones. "Yes We Are On Aisle 30 D Now We Will Finish In 5 Minutes And Then We Can Collaborate On The HOA Letter Re Dandylions."

No damn rack there either.

So I figure I'll do the modern thing, go home, get the brand and serial number off the racks I already have, slide a dildo up my ass, then order it from Amazon. So I unload a shitload of paintings off one rack, and-- nothing. Not a single mark of any sort. I must be looking at some Jack Ma Ali Baba Bootleg thing made from recycled Chinese death row prisoners.

A search through hundreds of images on Google is fruitless. The racks I want must all now be floating in that plastic-choked dead zone in the Pacific. Nobody online has anything like it.

Then it occurs to me-- I could just make it. I could make the same thing out of cardboard. I have a ton of strong clean cardboard, because eBay gives me shipping materials for free.

Full circle.

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On 4/20/2018 at 8:00 AM, Eastwood said:

More specifically, retailers didn't get out of ridiculous margins for tertiary items. There was a time where Best Buy was charging $50 for a gold plated HDMI cable and Amazon was selling regular HDMI cables for $5. It was the same for other high margin items in big box stores. Once people gave Amazon a shot and realized that it was more convenient and that big box stores were ridiculously over charging for some items, people never turned back.

It's not so much that they were over charging...they were charging to cover their insane building leases / purchase costs, air conditioning showrooms, & employee overhead.

I heard podcast of a comedian talking about cutting out their booking agent now that they're big enough to draw their own crowds to fill an auditorium.  They talked about getting 'ripped off' by all the fees and charges their booker would charge.  They're not wrong...BUT when (it was Bert Kriesher) and others were unknown talent, just starting out, the same bookers were getting them gigs & promoting them.   You kill the easy money for big names and there is no one to help book and start careers. 

Point being the 'fat money' in one thing pays for the other stuff.   As the internet makes the world smaller and cheaper...it's harder and harder to make money.

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On 4/21/2018 at 12:27 AM, Lhorn said:

Just a thought.

For years Walmart has been demonized by some for providing unfair competition which ultimately drove many small businesses out of business.  People were proud to say that they don't shop at Walmart.

Now Amazon is part of the shopping revolution that's doing the same thing.  What's the difference?  People are proud to says that they get their garlic, shoes, laundry detergent on Amazon.

Because they aren't doing the same thing. 

In reality, if you understand their business model and culture you could see that Walmart won (ie, killed off independent retailers) in an age of scarcity, where controlling supply was the key to success. 

As a result, their ruthless and penny-penching culture made them the best at a certain game (lower prices as the result of true globalization and commodification of every possible thing Americans would want to buy) by specifically focusing on and optimizing for scale (both in the store and diversity of SKUs and in their footprint) and making every thing else a process that could operate at the least-common denominator, thus allowing them to treat their employees as just another replaceable cog in a humming machine.  

This is the same world that made newspaper publishers the richest people in their communities, and often in the world. 

We now live in a world where the power does not lie in controlling supply, but in being the source of aggregated DEMAND. 

So just as a newspaper can't charge a king's ransom to sell a local business an ad, the only real way to reach the audience at scale in his market, Walmart can't (or maybe can't) be as ruthless in squeezing their suppliers to death, exploiting globalization and have a customer-agnostic culture and just expect to "win" because they are either (or both) cheaper and more convenient than another retailer. 

To get your product in Walmart's stores might take years, massive capital investments to scale up your production, and more, only to see your business get squeezed at every possible turn. But now you can launch a new product on Amazon, with theoretically a larger reach than even WMT ever had, in minutes and scale as your sales scale. 

Because Amazon is increasingly driving demand in all online commerce, they are also growing a marketplace where any retailer can reach the world's (or at least the affluent customers of the US), and all they have to do is pay them a small percentage of what they sell in exchange. 

Amazon is not really interested in cutting costs just to spite their customers, as they want to continue to drive more and more of the demand, while forcing suppliers to come on their platform to sell, and thus reap a small "tax" on every retail transaction. 

There is no limit on shelf space at AMZN, much less a limit on departments, and with aggregated demand even the most niche players can find the very specific market they are looking for and build a successful business. 

 

Edited by TheYoungHorn
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Guitar Center on life support.  Most of these companies were over-leveraged by VC acquisitions.

 

Quote

Could the world's largest instrument retailer be ready to sing bye bye, Miss American Pie"? That may indeed be the case for Guitar Center. The S&P recently reduced the retailer's corporate credit rating further into junk status. S&P does not see the retailer — with more than 250 stores across the U.S. — improving its credit metrics given high leverage and weak cash flow, especially as more than $600M in notes mature in April of next year, according to MarketWatch. Guitar Center remains in operation, just on a watch list with a host of other retailers in precarious positions. That means the retailer is susceptible to any shocks, including a recession or a sharper drop in guitar sales, Digital Music News reports. Lower guitar sales are also the source of guitar-maker Gibson's tribulations. Gibson is saddled with more than $500M in debt coming due this summer. “In both cases, these businesses have been unable to adapt to a precipitous slide in guitar sales. Younger buyers, who once drove the guitar surge, have now shifted towards [Electronic Dance Music], rap, and less guitar-driven indie music — even though interest in music itself has never been higher,” Digital Music News reports. The company has not announced any store closures; it recently announced a new store in Delray Beach, Florida, and a revamped store in Bloomington, Minnesota.

Read more at: https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/retail/is-guitar-center-hanging-by-a-string-87651?utm_source=MorningBrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20180424_los-angeles_morningbrief&be=phill%40worthe.com&email=phill%40worthe.com?utm_source=CopyShare&utm_medium=Browser

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/retail/is-guitar-center-hanging-by-a-string-87651?utm_source=MorningBrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20180424_los-angeles_morningbrief&be=phill%40worthe.com&email=phill%40worthe.com

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On 4/23/2018 at 12:48 PM, TheYoungHorn said:

Because they aren't doing the same thing. 

In reality, if you understand their business model and culture you could see that Walmart won (ie, killed off independent retailers) in an age of scarcity, where controlling supply was the key to success. 

As a result, their ruthless and penny-penching culture made them the best at a certain game (lower prices as the result of true globalization and commodification of every possible thing Americans would want to buy) by specifically focusing on and optimizing for scale (both in the store and diversity of SKUs and in their footprint) and making every thing else a process that could operate at the least-common denominator, thus allowing them to treat their employees as just another replaceable cog in a humming machine.  

This is the same world that made newspaper publishers the richest people in their communities, and often in the world. 

We now live in a world where the power does not lie in controlling supply, but in being the source of aggregated DEMAND. 

So just as a newspaper can't charge a king's ransom to sell a local business an ad, the only real way to reach the audience at scale in his market, Walmart can't (or maybe can't) be as ruthless in squeezing their suppliers to death, exploiting globalization and have a customer-agnostic culture and just expect to "win" because they are either (or both) cheaper and more convenient than another retailer. 

To get your product in Walmart's stores might take years, massive capital investments to scale up your production, and more, only to see your business get squeezed at every possible turn. But now you can launch a new product on Amazon, with theoretically a larger reach than even WMT ever had, in minutes and scale as your sales scale. 

Because Amazon is increasingly driving demand in all online commerce, they are also growing a marketplace where any retailer can reach the world's (or at least the affluent customers of the US), and all they have to do is pay them a small percentage of what they sell in exchange. 

Amazon is not really interested in cutting costs just to spite their customers, as they want to continue to drive more and more of the demand, while forcing suppliers to come on their platform to sell, and thus reap a small "tax" on every retail transaction. 

There is no limit on shelf space at AMZN, much less a limit on departments, and with aggregated demand even the most niche players can find the very specific market they are looking for and build a successful business. 

 

All of this is true.  However, recognize that Amazon has a couple of big realities to deal with.

1.) the logistics are on the come.  Free shipping in 2 days for any size order is not sustainable.  It is a loss leader.

2.) the stock market has not held their financial performance to the same standards as their peers.  This has allowed them a lot of flexibility operationally.

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16 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

All of this is true.  However, recognize that Amazon has a couple of big realities to deal with.

1.) the logistics are on the come.  Free shipping in 2 days for any size order is not sustainable.  It is a loss leader.

2.) the stock market has not held their financial performance to the same standards as their peers.  This has allowed them a lot of flexibility operationally.

Yes to both.

But 1: they improve on this stuff every day because 2. They have told a story and backed it up that investors have bought. Walmart never told such a story, and thus were and have been judged as other retailers have always been. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Parliament said:

The rest of the story is that SHLD CEO Eddie Lampert's hedge fund is going to buy Kenmore. He has been parting out the carcass of the company to himself for years, and is going to continue to do so until there is nothing left. The Sears Dumpster fire is one to behold.

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1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

All of this is true.  However, recognize that Amazon has a couple of big realities to deal with.

1.) the logistics are on the come.  Free shipping in 2 days for any size order is not sustainable.  It is a loss leader.

2.) the stock market has not held their financial performance to the same standards as their peers.  This has allowed them a lot of flexibility operationally.

1 hour ago, TheYoungHorn said:

Yes to both.

But 1: they improve on this stuff every day because 2. [/b]They have told a story and backed it up that investors have bought.[/b] Walmart never told such a story, and thus were and have been judged as other retailers have always been. 

 

 

Eh, not really.  The first point is more correct.  AMZN has always been allowed to trade like a tech company and not a retail/operational one.  I'm not sure what story they've told investors, other than the standard tech line of sales and share growth with profit being secondary.  Hell, they bought WF for $14B almost two years ago and they still haven't outlined a strategy and don't give a lot of details about their sales other than they're satisfied with them.  Meanwhile, it's vague notions of moving into things like logistics and pharma sales, both of which are wildly unrealistic and/or not profitable.  Wall Street takes those little nuggets and then punishes the stock of the potential competitors.  I wish Wall Street had some more critical analysis of what is going on.

That being said, AMZN is smart to take advantage of that.  Why should they be more detailed?  Why should they focus on profit instead of growth?  Until the investment community makes them, they should stay the course.  That being said, I thought AMZN was overvalued at $900 but still bought a lot so there's that.

Good analysis on the history of WMT, though.  I liked the term "customer agnostic."  

As far as the topic of the thread, a lot of these brick and mortar chains are just bad businesses.  Brick and mortar has a bright future because of the other point, being logistics.  The most efficient and cheapest model of delivery for centuries has been the shopkeeper concept and it's still the case.  There's almost no demand for customers to pay and uncharge for groceries to be delivered and they're low margin to start with.  (AMZN knows this and that's why they bought WF.)  There are also huge cost increases coming in the next 12-14 in the realm of logistics.  Gas is going to keep going up and there are significant shortages in capacity in both drivers and physical trucks.

 

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On 4/24/2018 at 11:45 AM, Sbbruin said:

I was about to write what I think they should do (cater less to teenagers looking to spend $150 on a Squier and more to me), but I suspect I don't actually know all that much beyond my interactions with Guitar Center and so I'll condense down to how my guitar center spending habits have changed based on how their stores have changed.  If I put a ballpark figure on the value of my collection of guitars and guitar gear, it would be in the $15-20k range.  I stop by Guitar Center to get picks and strings.  And I walk into the acoustic room while I'm there because it's fun.  But they moved all of the expensive acoustic guitars up to the top of the wall so you have to get one of the employees to get a ladder and bring it down.  So I haven't picked up an expensive acoustic guitar in a Guitar Center in a few years, and I also haven't picked up any guitar that is at all better or more interesting than what I have at home.  And I haven't bought any other expensive acoustic guitars since that change.

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37 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I was about to write what I think they should do (cater less to teenagers looking to spend $150 on a Squier and more to me), but I suspect I don't actually know all that much beyond my interactions with Guitar Center and so I'll condense down to how my guitar center spending habits have changed based on how their stores have changed.  If I put a ballpark figure on the value of my collection of guitars and guitar gear, it would be in the $15-20k range.  I stop by Guitar Center to get picks and strings.  And I walk into the acoustic room while I'm there because it's fun.  But they moved all of the expensive acoustic guitars up to the top of the wall so you have to get one of the employees to get a ladder and bring it down.  So I haven't picked up an expensive acoustic guitar in a Guitar Center in a few years, and I also haven't picked up any guitar that is at all better or more interesting than what I have at home.  And I haven't bought any other expensive acoustic guitars since that change.

Be interesting to know how their customer base breaks down between hackers buying a first and only instrument vs. professional and semi-pro musicians such as yourself and collector/accumulators.

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I know nothing about guitars or Guitar Center but most all of the specialt stores make very little profit on the core item but make all the profit in accessories.  (Golf stores make their money on apparel and not clubs, for example.)

My guess is Guitar Center is very similar.

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This past Saturday, the wife decided we needed a new table lamp.  So off we go lamp shopping.  Ten different stores ranging from Home Depot to Target to Rooms To Go to small little specialty shops.  Four hours later we still could not find a lamp that she liked.  Frustrated, we return home.  I bring up Amazon and low and behold there are a plethora of lamps that are right up her alley.  She picks one, I order it and it is delivered the next day.  Sunday.  They delivered a lamp in one day on a Sunday!  Now I don't know if that model is sustainable, but it's gotdamn awesome in my book.

 

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33 minutes ago, GhostRider said:

This past Saturday, the wife decided we needed a new table lamp.  So off we go lamp shopping.  Ten different stores ranging from Home Depot to Target to Rooms To Go to small little specialty shops.  Four hours later we still could not find a lamp that she liked.  Frustrated, we return home.  I bring up Amazon and low and behold there are a plethora of lamps that are right up her alley.  She picks one, I order it and it is delivered the next day.  Sunday.  They delivered a lamp in one day on a Sunday!  Now I don't know if that model is sustainable, but it's gotdamn awesome in my book.

 

It will be sustainable until they drive damn near everyone else out of business. Then they'll start charging you for shipping that takes 5-7 business days. 

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2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I know nothing about guitars or Guitar Center but most all of the specialt stores make very little profit on the core item but make all the profit in accessories.  (Golf stores make their money on apparel and not clubs, for example.)

My guess is Guitar Center is very similar.

This is probably true. I’d like to think that replacing my melted strings and smoking picks from shredding so damn hard is helping keeping them afloat. 

I would be truly sorry to see GC go away. Fuck millennial for their shitty taste in music. 

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3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I know nothing about guitars or Guitar Center but most all of the specialt stores make very little profit on the core item but make all the profit in accessories.  (Golf stores make their money on apparel and not clubs, for example.)

My guess is Guitar Center is very similar.

You're pretty close. Most music companies make most of their profit off rentals. They have a subsidiary called Music and Arts that mostly rents school instruments. Typically, it takes a little less than one year of payments by a parent to cover the cost M&A pays for the instrument. These instruments can last up to ten years, so basically after the first year, all the subsequent years mostly profit. Second is usually repairs. I'm not real familiar with Guitar repairs, but almost all orchestral instruments the repair is 95% labor and only about 5% parts. Then Accessories.

 

From what I know of Guitar Center/Music & Arts - since they were bought out by Bain Capital they've had two major issues. The first was the 2007 recession, which of course would hit this type of industry harder than most. And Bain's debt cost caused massive cuts in spending, mostly on hiring quality employees. Most of their in store employees make close to minimum wage plus a small commission. Hell, most of their store managers make less than 40K a year. Their ed sales reps (the guys who are most responsible for bring that school business rentals in) make about half of what I pay my guys. 

 

Needless to say, without having that kind of quality and knowledge, they have tough time moving higher priced merchandise. And they're ed reps keep losing out to smaller companies like mine (Fuck yeah!) because they just don't invest in the customer relations like they did before 2007.

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1 hour ago, Lhorn said:

This is probably true. I’d like to think that replacing my melted strings and smoking picks from shredding so damn hard is helping keeping them afloat. 

I would be truly sorry to see GC go away. Fuck millennial for their shitty taste in music. 

Where do you live?

 

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2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

If Amazon figures out how to get me a $1.35 air filter for a Ryobi Trimmer in 2 days without shipping charge they deserve to rule the world.  

To be fair, it's $1.35 plus your yearly membership. If you only order 10-15 small things a year, they're doing fine

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45 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

but almost all orchestral instruments the repair is 95% labor and only about 5% parts. Then Accessories.

Guitars are the same. $5 set of strings and the rest is the luthier's time and effort to set it up properly.

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1 hour ago, Jameslaw121 said:

To be fair, it's $1.35 plus your yearly membership. If you only order 10-15 small things a year, they're doing fine

Not really.  The prime orders I do for just that kind of stuff usually come from some third party fulfillment a couple states away.  That is $10 in shipping easily.  Someone is eating a big old shit sandwich on that.

Honestly I would pay much more for that stuff, and have.  Finding small parts and odd ball items is such a beating if you try to find at a brick and mortar.

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1 hour ago, Jameslaw121 said:

You're pretty close. Most music companies make most of their profit off rentals. They have a subsidiary called Music and Arts that mostly rents school instruments. Typically, it takes a little less than one year of payments by a parent to cover the cost M&A pays for the instrument. These instruments can last up to ten years, so basically after the first year, all the subsequent years mostly profit. Second is usually repairs. I'm not real familiar with Guitar repairs, but almost all orchestral instruments the repair is 95% labor and only about 5% parts. Then Accessories.

 

From what I know of Guitar Center/Music & Arts - since they were bought out by Bain Capital they've had two major issues. The first was the 2007 recession, which of course would hit this type of industry harder than most. And Bain's debt cost caused massive cuts in spending, mostly on hiring quality employees. Most of their in store employees make close to minimum wage plus a small commission. Hell, most of their store managers make less than 40K a year. Their ed sales reps (the guys who are most responsible for bring that school business rentals in) make about half of what I pay my guys. 

 

Needless to say, without having that kind of quality and knowledge, they have tough time moving higher priced merchandise. And they're ed reps keep losing out to smaller companies like mine (Fuck yeah!) because they just don't invest in the customer relations like they did before 2007.

That makes sense.  Guns are another example.  The big boxes like Bass Bro or Dicks make almost no money on guns, especially when you factor in the GMROI (how much money is tied up in them combined on how slowly they turn).  The profit is in the bullets, gear, and what not.  That's why it didn't hurt Dick's when they stopped selling assault rifles.  They weren't selling many to begin with.  Like guitars stores and golf stores, you have to have the show pieces, though.

As far as Bain, that's their MO.  All of the PE groups do that but Bain probably does it to the most extreme.  Buy it, take it private, load it up with debt, pay big fees and dividends to themselves, and then have another public offering and pay everyone off and make even more money.  Then 2008 happened.  Bain was in on Toys R Us and they probably the most leveraged retailer of them all.

 

 

 

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I have Prime, order 40-50 things a year from Amazon, use Prime Video, and hold AMZN stock. They’re sometimes convenient, sometimes cheaper, and sometimes the only place to get what I need.

That being said, I still like B&M for many things, especially clothes and groceries, and I almost always choose B&M when the options are similar and there isn’t a huge convenience or cost disparity. I‘m okay with paying slightly more at a B&M store if that cost also includes good local customer service or at least the ability to see something up close before purchasing.

I don’t understand why some of you wear an online shopping badge of honor and actively root against B&M. Why do you want fewer local options? Do you not care about trying your clothes on or seeing the available meat and produce before buying?

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10 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Brick and mortar will never die off completely, but we are clearly in a bubble now where it occupies way, way, way too much real estate. And what happens in the next few years when a whole bunch of these big boxes go under at the same time? 

 

It depends on the category.  We're overstored as a whole but in electronics, for example, they had quite the purge 10 years ago to the point there's about the right number of electronics chains now.  There are still way too many places for a woman to buy a top for $10-$20, though.

 

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It depends on the category.  We're overstored as a whole but in electronics, for example, they had quite the purge 10 years ago to the point there's about the right number of electronics chains now.  There are still way too many places for a woman to buy a top for $10-$20, though.
 


I agree, we should be making it harder for women to buy tops.
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On 4/23/2018 at 10:36 AM, RDCanecutter said:

I had some fun yesterday.

One of my jobs is selling art online. I needed more storage space for about 100 small paintings, you can't just stack them. Once at Walmart I found some kind of dish drainer that works well as a Painting Storage Rack. It's the only one that ever worked right. So I go to Wally World to get some more Right Now.

Walmart was all Poor People Shuffling Slowly. I didn't see the rack I wanted, so, out of a sense of morbid fascination, I approached two workers who were interrupting their conversation about a chicken place to place items on a shelf, to see if they had seen any other racks.

The one with asymmetrically-placed false eyelashes came over to me. "Huuuuuuh... you wanna rack...." She had her phone out, Johnny-on-the-spot no doubt checking Walmart inventory. Then I saw that on her phone was the face of her coworker two aisles away, sharing a bon mot. "huuuuh... I'on know...."

The child wandered off with her phone. She's the one who beat the other candidates at the job interview.

I swung by Target to see if they had the same rack that I could get Right Now. Target was all Middle-Class People Being Important, clipping along with their butts tucked in planning the assault on Pointe du Hoc on their phones. "Yes We Are On Aisle 30 D Now We Will Finish In 5 Minutes And Then We Can Collaborate On The HOA Letter Re Dandylions."

No damn rack there either.

So I figure I'll do the modern thing, go home, get the brand and serial number off the racks I already have, slide a dildo up my ass, then order it from Amazon. So I unload a shitload of paintings off one rack, and-- nothing. Not a single mark of any sort. I must be looking at some Jack Ma Ali Baba Bootleg thing made from recycled Chinese death row prisoners.

A search through hundreds of images on Google is fruitless. The racks I want must all now be floating in that plastic-choked dead zone in the Pacific. Nobody online has anything like it.

Then it occurs to me-- I could just make it. I could make the same thing out of cardboard. I have a ton of strong clean cardboard, because eBay gives me shipping materials for free.

Full circle.

You still went ahead and slid the dildo up your ass, right?

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Just wait until Amazon has perfected altered reality shopping, where you can try on clothes and maybe inspect big ticket items like BBQ grills, refrigerators, and stoves. Then combine that with their AI-powered drone-based fulfillment service and I see even Wal-Mart having a hard time staying relevant. Some of you guys are missing the benefits of being one of the leading tech companies on top of a leading retailer. They can subsidize development of these tools using profits from AWS, then both use those tools to improve their own business and sell those tools to other businesses. I usually hate the term "synergy" but this is it. This is why the market treats them like a tech company, not a retailer; because they act like a tech company, not a retailer. Their ethics are certainly questionable in some areas (I disagree entirely with how they treat their employees, from software engineer to warehouse floor worker), but their business acumen is pretty hard to criticize.

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All I'm saying is that Guitar Center should employ facial recognition scanning that matches up with their database of who has purchased things like a custom shop Gibson from them before, and then I'm ushered into a special room with all of the unique and rare guitars/amps as soon as I enter the store.  It's not that complicated.

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