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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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Bruh Man
Bruh Man

The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

Aqua Buddha
Aqua Buddha

Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You know what's unknown?  How many Trump supporters died of old age/underlying issues since 2016.

That would be an interesting number to figure out.

200k die a year in Texas with about 65% of olds voting and 65% of those for Trump for 84.5K per year or 338K total since 2016.

A similar number, or perhaps even more moved out of state. 

 

Edited by RayDog
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ztejas

ztejas 43266

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1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

I’m talking Texas. Not other states. Do you know Republicans in Texas who do not vote? Genuinely curious, I don’t.

I agree with you in that nationally I think the dems have more voters to gain than Rs. I've said as much in the electoral prediction thread. 

But I think it's crazy to assume that no one who didn't vote in 2016 will vote for Trump in 2020. Maybe it's a small number but they are out there.

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Thatguy

Thatguy 8505

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1 minute ago, ztejas said:

I agree with you in that nationally I think the dems have more voters to gain than Rs. I've said as much in the electoral prediction thread. 

But I think it's crazy to assume that no one who didn't vote in 2016 will vote for Trump in 2020. Maybe it's a small number but they are out there.

 

  I think that's a wash with who they lose. Remember evil incarnate was running in 2016. Grandpa is running in 2020. No one is scared of grandpa.

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ztejas

ztejas 43266

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1 minute ago, Thatguy said:

 

  I think that's a wash with who they lose. Remember evil incarnate was running in 2016. Grandpa is running in 2020. No one is scared of grandpa.

Probably true. I just don't see Biden winning Texas. I mean it would be great, but I don't think Texas is there yet.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

But I think it's crazy to assume that no one who didn't vote in 2016 will vote for Trump in 2020. Maybe it's a small number but they are out there.

I dont mean that when I say maxed out.

People turn 18 everyday in this state who are Trump supporters. There’s also people who die everyday that are Trump supporters. I don’t think it’s a net gain, and I don’t think the number makes a dent in the Dem gains. Especially when you add the Never Trump group.

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Thatguy

Thatguy 8505

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Probably true. I just don't see Biden winning Texas. I mean it would be great, but I don't think Texas is there yet.

  Naw. I think it stays red. Then again I still cast my vote with the same pride as pulling down my pants in a lockerroom full of Asian dudes.

Edited by Thatguy
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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33843

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So I'm pretty high and on my 4th beer of the night because fuck you, that's why, but I just did some math. So far, Travis County has increased their daily voting tallies over the previous day. ~36k on Tues, ~38k on Wed, ~39k today. I've heard estimates of 100k+ absentee/mail in ballots expected. That puts the number of in-person voters at ~750k. If we were to stay anywhere near that average for the 19 days of voting, we would be in the neighborhood of 94% voter turnout. Isn't ~60% a high water mark? I can't imagine that bodes well for dotard.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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https://www.dallasnews.com/news/courts/2020/10/15/state-district-court-halts-gov-abbotts-limit-on-mail-ballot-drop-off-sites/

Quote

A Travis County judge has tapped the brakes on Gov. Greg Abbott’s order that each county have no more than one mail ballot drop-off location.

State District Judge Tim Sulak on Thursday issued a temporary injunction that, if upheld, would free counties that planned to have more locations to do so.

Quote

“The limitation to a single drop-off location for mail ballots would likely needlessly and unreasonably increase risks of exposure to COVID-19 infections, and needlessly and unreasonably substantially burden potential voters' constitutionally protected right to vote, as a consequence of increased travel and delays, among other things,” Sulak wrote.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton quickly appealed the order, saying, “I disagree with the district court’s order and my office has filed a notice of appeal which stays the trial court’s order.”

Quote

A suit filed by the Anti-Defamation League Austin, Southwest and Texoma Regions, Common Cause Texas and Robert Ketsch called the timing of his order into question, noting that Abbott conceded in a judicial admission to the Texas Supreme Court that the Texas Election Code allows local election officials to designate more than one early voting ballot drop-off site in each county.

 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33843

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1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

I dont mean that when I say maxed out.

People turn 18 everyday in this state who are Trump supporters. There’s also people who die everyday that are Trump supporters. I don’t think it’s a net gain, and I don’t think the number makes a dent in the Dem gains. Especially when you add the Never Trump group.

sure, but I wonder how much the polls capture my folks. Early 60's, have always voted R. Mom is VERY pro-life. Dad (supposedly) was Johnson in '16, mom Dotard. He's now a never-Trumper and she's a hold-her-nose-go-D voter now. That's a big swing just in my nuclear family.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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48 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You know what's unknown?  How many Trump supporters died of old age/underlying issues since 2016.

That would be an interesting number to figure out.

I’ve been hoping that when I read about the Covid deaths in the paper and it says “a man in his 60’s” or “ a woman in her 80’s”. My first thought is “ hopefully 1 less Trump voter”.  I know it’s awful, but I think if we had a Democrat in office the virus would’ve been contained much better and the republicans would’ve vilified us for it anyway. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

So I'm pretty high and on my 4th beer of the night because fuck you, that's why, but I just did some math. So far, Travis County has increased their daily voting tallies over the previous day. ~36k on Tues, ~38k on Wed, ~39k today. I've heard estimates of 100k+ absentee/mail in ballots expected. That puts the number of in-person voters at ~750k. If we were to stay anywhere near that average for the 19 days of voting, we would be in the neighborhood of 94% voter turnout. Isn't ~60% a high water mark? I can't imagine that bodes well for dotard.

60% statewide, but Biden only needs 65% in the 11 largest counties. In 2016 it was Williamson 67.70%, Collin 67.27%, Fort Bend 64.86%, Travis 64.65%, and Denton 64.25%. Fort Bend is off to a slow start but the other 4 could top 70%.  Harris 58.72%, Dallas 58.97%, and Tarrant 62.04% were below 65% in 2016 but could easily top it this time. Bexar 56.41%, Hidalgo 51.23%, and El Paso 49.96% were the lowest in 2016 and probably will be again, the closer to 60% they get the better, but hopefully the other big counties bring up the average. A 60/40 split of 65% of 10 million voters gives Biden a 1.3 million advantage in just those counties. If Republicans don't show up in the other counties and drag down turnout so much the better.

I still think if 5 million vote early or early absentee in those 11 counties Biden wins.

Note that Beto beat Cruz by 240K in Dallas and Travis, 200K in Harris, 100K in Bexar and El Paso, 57 K in Hidalgo, 30K in Fort Bend, 6K Williamson and 4K in Tarrant. Biden gains a 1.3 million+ advantage in those 9 counties. Hopefully Collin (-22K) and Denton (-24K) are closer to a tie this time. 

Edited by RayDog
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Helobious

Helobious 9481

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Probably true. I just don't see Biden winning Texas. I mean it would be great, but I don't think Texas is there yet.

2026 -Texas elects a Democratic senator

2032 - Texas goes blue in a presidential race.  Wont stay blue, but I do think it will become the new Florida. It’ll be reasonably in play for both parties from there on out.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

Posted
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2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

So I'm pretty high and on my 4th beer of the night because fuck you, that's why, but I just did some math. So far, Travis County has increased their daily voting tallies over the previous day. ~36k on Tues, ~38k on Wed, ~39k today. I've heard estimates of 100k+ absentee/mail in ballots expected. That puts the number of in-person voters at ~750k. If we were to stay anywhere near that average for the 19 days of voting, we would be in the neighborhood of 94% voter turnout. Isn't ~60% a high water mark? I can't imagine that bodes well for dotard.

People have been waiting 4 years to vote him out, and they are taking their first opportunities to do so. I suspect the daily totals will decay well before the end of October. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

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Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Probably. But i think 60% might be the floor, not the ceiling, is my point. 

Here’s to hoping. I want to see the guy crushed electorally.  We need to send a message to ourselves and to the world that we recognize the mistake and correct it, and our grand experiment is not yet over. 
 

a narrow victory will feel almost pyrrhic by comparison.  I don’t like thinking about how many votes he’s going to get after his performance the last 4 years. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, RayDog said:

60% statewide, but Biden only needs 65% in the 11 largest counties. In 2016 it was Williamson 67.70%, Collin 67.27%, Fort Bend 64.86%, Travis 64.65%, and Denton 64.25%. Fort Bend is off to a slow start but the other 4 could top 70%.  Harris 58.72%, Dallas 58.97%, and Tarrant 62.04% were below 65% in 2016 but could easily top it this time. Bexar 56.41%, Hidalgo 51.23%, and El Paso 49.96% were the lowest in 2016 and probably will be again, the closer to 60% they get the better, but hopefully the other big counties bring up the average. A 60/40 split of 65% of 10 million voters gives Biden a 1.3 million advantage in just those counties. If Republicans don't show up in the other counties and drag down turnout so much the better.

I still think if 5 million vote early or early absentee in those 11 counties Biden wins.

Note that Beto beat Cruz by 240K in Dallas and Travis, 200K in Harris, 100K in Bexar and El Paso, 57 K in Hidalgo, 30K in Fort Bend, 6K Williamson and 4K in Tarrant. Biden gains a 1.3 million+ advantage in those 9 counties. Hopefully Collin (-22K) and Denton (-24K) are closer to a tie this time. 

Do you think Biden wins tarrant like Beto did? Hilary lost it.

Edited by Voldemort86
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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23 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Do you think Biden wins tarrant like Beto did? Hilary lost it.

Demographics in Texas are shifting the vote by 1 to 1.5% per year in the biggest counties. I am also assuming that Trump 2020 will do worse than Cruz 2018, so I expect Biden will win Tarrant by a 2-3% higher margin, perhaps a little more. A better liked Republican could certainly still win there. 

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Orale

Orale 1087

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4 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

I see some of you giving props to Lina Hidalgo. Forgive my ignorance, but what is her role in the huge turnout in Harris County? 

There was $30 million for voting improvements in 2020 versus $4 million spent in 2016 for Harris County. I don't know how much credit she deserves for that, but an 800% increase in spending is pretty cool. 

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Pancho

Pancho 44487

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3 hours ago, Orale said:

There was $30 million for voting improvements in 2020 versus $4 million spent in 2016 for Harris County. I don't know how much credit she deserves for that, but an 800% increase in spending is pretty cool. 

She’s also openly speaking out about voter suppression, which I appreciate.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11777

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6 hours ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:
11 hours ago, WBT said:
How does the drive-in voting work?

You pull up to a speaker and shout who you'd like to vote for. They'll ask if you'd like to "super-size" your vote for an additional buck, but you don't have to.

A true lol from me. 

Well done sir.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11777

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8 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

I see some of you giving props to Lina Hidalgo. Forgive my ignorance, but what is her role in the huge turnout in Harris County? 

She’s got a lot going on upstairs and should get credit for that.

We’re dealing with two large peaks here. One of corona and one of turnout. They’re huge when compared to what other Harris county judges ever dealt with. And usually when you’re dealing with that, you’ve get a lot of aches and pains. But considering she’s adequately measured the size / need for each individual peak adequately, I think she’s found the support she needs. That’s important and it shows as the numbers of voters seem to almost levitate at an extremely ample 100,000 / day.

I would say that with a huge racked up total of votes already in and democratic enthusiasm poking through, she can’t just sit back and admire her bonafides. 

All that being said, I personally think she’s the tits.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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5 hours ago, Orale said:

There was $30 million for voting improvements in 2020 versus $4 million spent in 2016 for Harris County. I don't know how much credit she deserves for that, but an 800% increase in spending is pretty cool. 

Harris county looks to be leading the charge on voting improvements. More locations, more workers and trying new ideas. While you hear of long lines in other counties, I only hear of people waiting 10-20 minutes in Houston. I’m sure that we have some long lines but in some ways this is the fault of some of the voters. There is an online map with wait times. If your location says and hours, maybe don’t go or at least be cool with an hour. Or better yet, find another location or time to go.

the idea about drive thru voting is interesting especially for disabled people. 

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19331

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1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

She’s got a lot going on upstairs and should get credit for that.

We’re dealing with two large peaks here. One of corona and one of turnout. They’re huge when compared to what other Harris county judges ever dealt with. And usually when you’re dealing with that, you’ve get a lot of aches and pains. But considering she’s adequately measured the size / need for each individual peak adequately, I think she’s found the support she needs. That’s important and it shows as the numbers of voters seem to almost levitate at an extremely ample 100,000 / day.

I would say that with a huge racked up total of votes already in and democratic enthusiasm poking through, she can’t just sit back and admire her bonafides. 

All that being said, I personally think she’s the tits.

anigif_sub-buzz-908-1562726902-1.gif?out

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AngryDragon

AngryDragon 270

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1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

She’s got a lot going on upstairs and should get credit for that.

We’re dealing with two large peaks here. One of corona and one of turnout. They’re huge when compared to what other Harris county judges ever dealt with. And usually when you’re dealing with that, you’ve get a lot of aches and pains. But considering she’s adequately measured the size / need for each individual peak adequately, I think she’s found the support she needs. That’s important and it shows as the numbers of voters seem to almost levitate at an extremely ample 100,000 / day.

I would say that with a huge racked up total of votes already in and democratic enthusiasm poking through, she can’t just sit back and admire her bonafides. 

All that being said, I personally think she’s the tits.

This is the sophisticated entertainment I come to Surly for. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47884

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10 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

I see some of you giving props to Lina Hidalgo. Forgive my ignorance, but what is her role in the huge turnout in Harris County? 

Other folks have addressed her role in huge turnout (investment, innovation, practicality) and that generally she's always looking 2 steps ahead of the game. She's anticipated the suits and had plans to keep access to voting widespread despite the GOP suits.

Additionally, outside of turnout, she's been vocal and present against Abbot's half-assed response to covid, and has been a very visible presence urging people with science. Add in the fact she's fairly hip, and she's been a fucking badass. Basically, she's smart as fuck and she doesn't back down from anyone. I read an article on her recently that profiled how she's basically been going to politics camps since she was a fucking kid. Like summer camps about how to build coalitions and make decisions and such. Seems like she learned quite a bit. 

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10401

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My in-laws voted yesterday in Travis County. They waited for about an hour, and when they got near the front of the line, apparently a poll worker was coming through the line offering ballots that could be dropped off on Airport.

That seems odd to me. They are quite a bit older, and their stories aren’t always clear. Anybody know what that could’ve been? Can you go to a polling station, get a mail-in ballot, then go drop it off?

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32704

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Posted (edited)

This is of course an unusual year with extended early voting and COVID. Typically we see a slight uptick today on the first Friday of early voting as I'm assuming people take off from work early at the end of the week and go vote. We'll see what happens today.

Also, the county voter registration totals are now updated, so the denominator shouldn't change from here.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32704

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I think where we're going to start seeing the impact of the extended early voting is Tuesday of next week. I think the 2020 graph is going to start following the 2018 line and then, of course, not have the huge uptick at the end of Week 2 because voters know they have more time.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32704

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Looks like the Texas SOS site is starting to get their numbers more accurately reported and in a timelier manner. May just start using their site tomorrow, saves a lot of time from going through the 15 county sites.

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionDetails.do

Only off a bit here or there from the county sites.

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Texas73

Texas73 420

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Posted
50 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

My in-laws voted yesterday in Travis County. They waited for about an hour, and when they got near the front of the line, apparently a poll worker was coming through the line offering ballots that could be dropped off on Airport.

That seems odd to me. They are quite a bit older, and their stories aren’t always clear. Anybody know what that could’ve been? Can you go to a polling station, get a mail-in ballot, then go drop it off?

Yeah, I believe the in-laws are incorrect. Poll workers are handing out sample ballots that one can fill out and use at the voting machine. Maybe someone asked where absentee ballots are being dropped off in Travis county and the worker said Airport Blvd. 

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