2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Hank Kingsley 20712]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Unfortunately I think he is safe. Plenty of signs in my area for Crenshaw. Notably, they are not accompanied by Trump signs. I think that says something. 

By far the most interesting trend with yard signs this year. I see 4-5 times as many Wesley Hunt signs than Trump signs in my neighborhood and surrounding areas. 

Will be interesting to see if those voters actually all vote for Trump or not. 

 

[Wayne 571]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

By far the most interesting trend with yard signs this year. I see 4-5 times as many Wesley Hunt signs than Trump signs in my neighborhood and surrounding areas. 

Will be interesting to see if those voters actually all vote for Trump or not. 

 

I have noticed this in 77024. Probably 20 Wesley Hunt signs in my neighborhood and just 4 or 5 Trump. 

[Dahobbs 17449]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

By far the most interesting trend with yard signs this year. I see 4-5 times as many Wesley Hunt signs than Trump signs in my neighborhood and surrounding areas. 

Will be interesting to see if those voters actually all vote for Trump or not. 

 

Fletcher's campaign has totally dismissed Hunt as a real candidate. I think she ultimately wins, but I don't like the lackadaisical response. 

[Ted Lange 16053]

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

I still have yet to see a single trump yard sign in Austin.  And I know for a fact that there are republicans in my neighborhood. When I talk to some of them they typically say they’re not voting for either trump or Biden. 

[Hank Kingsley 20712]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Fletcher's campaign has totally dismissed Hunt as a real candidate. I think she ultimately wins, but I don't like the lackadaisical response. 

Agreed.

I hope she wins, but Hunt has absolutely dominated her in the marketing department. 

[Bateshorn 9905]

@Huckleberry Am I to understand that the big turnout in hard red counties may mean that everyone is voting early not just democrats, so we may not be waiting to see what an in person GOP November 3 turnout means?  As in, we may know where theses early voting and reporting states are likely headed before Election Day? 

[Brisketexan 104635]

I still have yet to see a single trump yard sign in Austin.  And I know for a fact that there are republicans in my neighborhood. When I talk to some of them they typically say they’re not voting for either trump or Biden. 

My wife has counted 3 Trump signs in the hood. But we know some other hardcore GOP types who just don’t have signs this year (embarrassment, I guess). My guess is that our hood is 80-20 Biden country, ballpark. We’re also a heavily college educated white (and Jewish) hood. So, that fits the model.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

In the garden oaks area, I’ve seen a few yards with sign for Sheila Jackson Lee’s GOP opponent, Wendell champion. But the homeowner does not have a trump sign. I assume that they are voting for trump but not willing to overtly indicate it.

fyi, anyone in Harris that has a mail-in ballot, it’s very simple to drop it off at nrg stadium. Use the entrance on Kirby just south of the stadium, gate 9. They have plenty of people will point you in the right direction. They look at your ID and ask you to duplicate your signature. No wait this morning.  It’s a good method to 100% validate your ballot has been received and signature accepted by the county. 

one of the party poll watchers was all over the election worker watching each step of the process. Breathing-down-her-neck close.

Edited October 17, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Ted Lange 16053]

What’s the reason/demographics that lead to GOP voters being more likely to vote on Election Day vs D voters?  

[Ghost of LL 15493]

2 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

What’s the reason/demographics that lead to GOP voters being more likely to vote on Election Day vs D voters?  

It's all on Trump shitting on mail-in voting.  That has bled into a general perception among Trumpkins that the only real, American way to vote is on Election Day.

[Ted Lange 16053]

But wasn’t this a thing prior to that too?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Dems just have always seemed to gravitate to early voting more than republicans. Obviously I mean overall not individual.  Example where a healthy number of African-Americans go on a Sunday after church during early voting.

personally I can’t understand why anyone would want to wait to the last (Election) day. If there any problems (personal or election site) you’re screwed. Who wants to wait in line until midnight to vote if there’s a problem.

I don’t even really think of it as early voting. Basically we have a 2-3 week window to vote with a 2 day stoppage before the final day.

[thepop 4409]

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/elections/wait-time-map.html

Judging purely off the wait time map, it seems like numbers in Travis will be down today. Lots of green locations.

[SizzleChest 8275]

7 minutes ago, thepop said:

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/elections/wait-time-map.html

Judging purely off the wait time map, it seems like numbers in Travis will be down today. Lots of green locations.

It's inconsistent.  The poll workers try to keep up, but I went to two EV locations yesterday (ditched the first because the website wait time indicated 20-50 mins and it was more like 90-120 minutes).  While the lines were moving quickly, the website estimates were way under what was reality.

Edited October 17, 2020 by SizzleChest

[Huckleberry 32704]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

@Huckleberry Am I to understand that the big turnout in hard red counties may mean that everyone is voting early not just democrats, so we may not be waiting to see what an in person GOP November 3 turnout means?  As in, we may know where theses early voting and reporting states are likely headed before Election Day? 

I'm thinking that Election Day may not be as tilted red as we thought, and early voting may not be as unusually tilted blue as we thought. But it's all guesswork right now.

[Huckleberry 32704]

Through Friday, the Cruz/O'Rourke estimate for this year's voting is 

Trump 1,765,666 (51.4%)
Biden 1,666,449 (48.6%)

As mentioned last night, this is actually in line with the numbers through Thursday, it's just that there was a late update to Thursday's numbers after I'd initially run the calculation.

 

[Dahobbs 17449]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I'm thinking that Election Day may not be as tilted red as we thought, and early voting may not be as unusually tilted blue as we thought. But it's all guesswork right now.

I'm thinking vote by mail will be strongly tilted blue. I also find Bexar county's volume of vote by mail ballots interesting.  29% of its early vote has been by mail. The next closest is Montgomery county at 23%. Bexar county had 38,000 total mail in ballots in 2016. It is close to doubling that number already. 

 

[thepop 4409]

15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Through Friday, the Cruz/O'Rourke estimate for this year's voting is 

Trump 1,765,666 (51.4%)
Biden 1,666,449 (48.6%)

As mentioned last night, this is actually in line with the numbers through Thursday, it's just that there was a late update to Thursday's numbers after I'd initially run the calculation.

 

This doesn't take into account how early voting favored Beto. Most likely Biden is leading.

[BradInATX 9208]

Comal County sign report:
Fuck load of Trump signs.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

2 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

I still have yet to see a single trump yard sign in Austin.  And I know for a fact that there are republicans in my neighborhood. When I talk to some of them they typically say they’re not voting for either trump or Biden. 

We had one in our neighborhood.  I'm actually friends with the lady (we don't talk politics) who has it.  Her neighbor put up a big-ass Biden flag/banner, so she seems to have taken hers down.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

Speaking of signs, when we voted this morning, I swear there were a lot more signs than I've ever seen in the past.  A shit-ton more.   I'm sure there's a paper waiting to be written about the correlation between an increase in voting, and an increase in advertising (and making it easier to vote).

We voted at the Northwest Municipal rec. center in Austin.  Very fast moving, and curbside voting looked like it was working (there was an elderly couple doing it).  A lot more people voting on a Saturday than I remember two years ago.

Edited October 17, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89452]

 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

 

[Biff Tannen 45500]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

She should edit this. Dotard knob slobbers are going to run with this and claim fraud for registering people under the age of 18. They won’t read past the first sentence. 

[Francisco 2.0 32344]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

She should edit this. Dotard knob slobbers are going to run with this and claim fraud for registering people under the age of 18. They won’t read past the first sentence. 

I'm going to assume in the next legislative session a bill will be introduced by a hardcore #MAGA rep banning schools that receive state aid from doing this in the future.

[Huckleberry 32704]

Just voted. Very fast, people are motivated but still won't give up a Saturday to vote. 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

dp

Edited October 17, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[South Austin 52151]

59 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

She should edit this. Dotard knob slobbers are going to run with this and claim fraud for registering people under the age of 18. They won’t read past the first sentence. 

Ken Paxton filing for a TRO in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1.

[Dahobbs 17449]

 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

 

I hope that gif choice was meant to get aggy to not vote. 

[RayDog 682]

Regarding the trends in Collin, Denton, Galveston, Brazoria, and Bell that some people asked about here are the net results for 2012, 2016 and 2018 showing the trend.

Collin 2012-95,473, 2016-60,390, 2018-21,811
Denton 2012-76,601, 2016-59,713, 2018-24,095
Galveston 2012-29548, 2016-30,099,2018-22,576 
Brazoria 2012-36,441, 2016-29,591, 2018-20,465
Bell 2012-14,062, 2016-14,187, 2018-9,020

There is also the fact that the generic ballot was plus 7 or 8 before Biden's polling average shot up over 10. And another fact that both Clinton and Beto beat their polling average in Texas by around 3% indicting that pollsters are not accounting for the true  percentage of Democratic voters. I think the polling could be off by as much as 4-5% this time.

I thinking Biden wins Collin and Denton by less than 10K, while Trump wins Galveston and Brazoria, by around 10K, with Bell a tossup that could go a couple thousand votes either way.

The early voting in 2016 and 2018 favored the Democrats in Texas, so I see early voting success as a good sign, not something to worry about.

Montgomery is still not close. The trend is Montgomery 2012-105,409, 2016-104,479, 2018-86,127. So Trump should win it by 50-70K. But if Democrats net 20K when compared to Beto's result that is still a nice plus as it all adds up.

 

[TwiceHorn 31291]

Not sure it quite belongs here, but I have been posting voting things here.

I just got a text that Colin Allred and MJ are going to be at the nearby polling place tomorrow from 2:30-3:30 to greet voters.  Because they aren't R's I assume this is legal, but seems really odd.

[South Austin 52151]

1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

Not sure it quite belongs here, but I have been posting voting things here.

I just got a text that Colin Allred and MJ are going to be at the nearby polling place tomorrow from 2:30-3:30 to greet voters.  Because they aren't R's I assume this is legal, but seems really odd.

I recall seeing local candidates (e.g., city council) at polling places in the past. But like you, never looked into the legality of that.

[Huckleberry 32704]

As long as they're over 100 feet from the official entrance there's no legal issue. 

[Ted Lange 16053]

Houston kicking dallasss.

[Ted Lange 16053]

Houston kicking dallasss.

[gmr548 16518]

Not sure it quite belongs here, but I have been posting voting things here.
I just got a text that Colin Allred and MJ are going to be at the nearby polling place tomorrow from 2:30-3:30 to greet voters.  Because they aren't R's I assume this is legal, but seems really odd.

Yeah I've seen that before. All about tgat 100ft rule. No different than volunteers canvassing the parking lot.

[Dahobbs 17449]

 

 

[Bateshorn 9905]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

4 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Not sure it quite belongs here, but I have been posting voting things here.
I just got a text that Colin Allred and MJ are going to be at the nearby polling place tomorrow from 2:30-3:30 to greet voters.  Because they aren't R's I assume this is legal, but seems really odd.

Yeah I've seen that before. All about tgat 100ft rule. No different than volunteers canvassing the parking lot.

Super common in MD,  I usually have to chit chat the actual candidates in my district on primary day before I vote because my polling place is so vote rich.  There is some distance requirement from the door. They all know it and respect it.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Bateshorn

[hookem2010 2600]

Dragging my wife to the polls Tuesday evening. She didn't vote in 2016 but I'm not going to let her get through this cycle without voting. Idk which way my sister went in 2016, but I would guess 3rd party or no vote and she is a definite Biden vote this year. I had high hopes of turning my parents, but it was not to be. They tried to attend a Trump boat parade without us kids finding out, and I'm fucking disgusted. I don't know whether to shame them or ignore them. I've gone with the latter so far after many deleted text drafts. If you're voting Trump when your daughter is part of LGBTQ, your youngest son lives in Cali where Trump is refusing to provide assistance, and your eldest is going to invade the suburbs with his minority wife I guess you're just too far gone. It makes me wonder if they were always this way, or if years of fox news, excessive sun and lake water rotted their brains.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

30 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Dragging my wife to the polls Tuesday evening. She didn't vote in 2016 but I'm not going to let her get through this cycle without voting.

Why the hell can't you let her finish her cycle before dragging her to the polls.  She can vote next week.

[pyrohornIII 4809]

More signs, many more signs on the way.  Biden campaign shipped in probably 100K this weekend.   Really sharp looking in dark blue, a strong plastic sleeve/bag on a metal frame.   

Wilco has a fantastic Dem County Chair in Kim Gilby.  Her patience, intelligence and experience have really helped Wilco move blue.   It hasn't been easy, since there are so many different Dem factions under the county tent.  If you ever get a chance to meet her, say hi.  She's a great person.

 

[YChang 3431]

On 10/16/2020 at 10:56 PM, AngryDragon said:

We would skew left even more than the 18% but for some damn reason the Vietnamese immigrants vote R and don't bother to get educated.

A lot are Catholic so you know... abortion. That’s the rationale my SIL’s mother gave me.

[Okie State 3788]

A lot are Catholic so you know... abortion. That’s the rationale my SIL’s mother gave me.

My hardcore Catholic Aunt is still spamming my wife's cellphone with posts about going to hell if you vote anything but straight ticket Republican. I blocked her two years ago.

[Larry T. Spider 1741]

I used to work with a lot of Vietnamese families. Many have a very idealized view of America and are very patriotic. A lot of the GOP propaganda and flag waving resonates with them. Same with the bootstrap mentality because so many of them came from nothing and managed to scratch out a middle class life. Social justice, lgbtq issues and other dem platform issues just weren’t that important to them. 
 

What are we thinking for Harris county turnout M-F this week? Any more days over 100k or is it going to dwindle some?

[Huckleberry 32704]

I think 100K days are done with the possible exception of the last day of early voting.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

8 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I used to work with a lot of Vietnamese families. Many have a very idealized view of America and are very patriotic. A lot of the GOP propaganda and flag waving resonates with them. Same with the bootstrap mentality because so many of them came from nothing and managed to scratch out a middle class life. Social justice, lgbtq issues and other dem platform issues just weren’t that important to them. 
 

What are we thinking for Harris county turnout M-F this week? Any more days over 100k or is it going to dwindle some?

I don't if it's still the case but I recall many Vietnamese in the fishing industry in the 70s and 80s pushing back against regulations. And there is a perception that some in the fishing industry (regardless of ethnicity) avoid taxes in questionable business transactions. Both concepts lend itself to conservative voting.

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I think 100K days are done with the possible exception of the last day of early voting.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a drastic drop this week since I don't know how you sustain 4-5% voting every day for close to 3 weeks. Based on your charts, Week 2 from 2016 was 3-3.5%. Lets say this week is 75-80K each day?

I'm interested to see the enthusiasm in the counties that are seen extremely high turnout (Denton) or low (El Paso.) Logic says that county turnout should all revert to the mean especially given ~3 weeks of early voting. Overall I look forward to seeing if a longer voting period materially changes the voting turnout especially in counties with historic low turnout.

[Larry T. Spider 1741]

Yeah, I have the same wondering about overall turnout. Are we going to see the same turnout over a longer period of time or does more days = more voters? Obviously we could see higher turnout because of trump so it’s impossible to isolate the variable, but it’s still interesting. 

[Larry T. Spider 1741]

32 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I think 100K days are done with the possible exception of the last day of early voting.

Would 400k from today through Saturday be a reasonable goal for Harris?