2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Bored on a Sunday morning so crunched the voting #s on the SoS site as of 10am. Looks like some counties are not reporting yesterday's totals yet or perhaps they didn't have any.

Total: 3.8m voted in Texas so far

• If counties voted the same as 2016: Trump currently leads by 300K.
• If counties voted the same as the 2018 Senate race, Trump is up by 71K. 

Since most people posting here appear to support Biden, I was curious if Biden did even better. Could the Texas electorate have shifted more left since 2018?

• If Biden outperforms Beto by 1% and Trump underperforms Cruz by 1% in each county, Biden would be up by 7K in Texas right now.

Disclaimer: I'm not considering that Dems are more likely to have early voted more than the GOP.  On Nov. 4th, it doesn't matter when someone voted.

 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Huckleberry 32704]

Yeah, lots of counties haven't reported Saturday as of the State site's update from about 20 minutes ago. Out of the 15 most populous counties, Galveston still hasn't reported anything from yesterday so neither of my updates will happen until we get better data.

Based only on what's been reported for yesterday, Saturday was a good day for Biden in terms of where voters turned out. Updated total is

Trump - 1,976,190 (50.9%)
Biden - 1,905,189 (49.1%)

The caveat is that the counties who haven't reported yet are Galveston and a bunch of smaller ones. So that will move things toward the Trump side of this simple analysis once those numbers come in. And yeah, I'm running it the same way you are. I have no way of accurately guessing the Dem/Rep tilt of early voting so I'm just using the final splits from 2018.

[Dahobbs 17449]

53 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Bored on a Sunday morning so crunched the voting #s on the SoS site as of 10am. Looks like some counties are not reporting yesterday's totals yet or perhaps they didn't have any.

Total: 3.8m voted in Texas so far

• If counties voted the same as 2016: Trump currently leads by 300K.
• If counties voted the same as the 2018 Senate race, Trump is up by 71K. 

Since most people posting here appear to support Biden, I was curious if Biden did even better. Could the Texas electorate have shifted more left since 2018?

• If Biden outperforms Beto by 1% and Trump underperforms Cruz by 1% in each county, Biden would be up by 7K in Texas right now.

Disclaimer: I'm not considering that Dems are more likely to have early voted more than the GOP.  On Nov. 4th, it doesn't matter when someone voted.

 

Right now, we'd need movement of 183 basis points statewide from 2018 in order for Biden to be ahead. That seems doable? Or, 295 basis points in the 11 largest counties and everything else remaining the same would also do it. That's significantly less than the shift from 2016 to 2018. 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Huckleberry 32704]

Oh, forgot to mention, there was a historic nosedive in early voting yesterday. It's what we all expected, but I guess I'll go ahead and post a modified chart. In this one I've taken out Galveston County from each day in order to compare apples to apples:

As you can see, looks like we are going to slow down significantly after the first week enthusiasm. People have realized they still have a lot of days to vote.

[thepop 4409]

 

[Dahobbs 17449]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Right now, we'd need movement of 183 basis points statewide from 2018 in order for Biden to be ahead. That seems doable? Or, 295 basis points in the 11 largest counties and everything else remaining the same would also do it. That's significantly less than the shift from 2016 to 2018. 

I'll add, in 2018 on a county-by-county basis (not adjusted for population), the 216 smallest counties actually shifted slight in favor of the GOP from 2016. Whereas, the 38 largest counties shifted in favor of the Democrats by 5.64% (564 basis points). In total, the counties average a 82 basis point shift left from 2016 to 2018, which is a lot less than the population adjusted number. The large counties are really driving the change in Texas politics (which isn't surprising). 

[Dahobbs 17449]

And, if every county continued in the same direction and made half of their movement from 2016 to 2018. . . Biden would be ahead right now by 43,000 votes. 

[SydneyCarton 47889]

Anecdotally, just took my wife to vote. Sunday at the local inclusive church, which didn’t look like there were any services today. 
 

it took her 20 min (was 5th in line or so when polls opened at noon). It took her long because we have to fill out the paperwork to invalidate our mail in ballot. I’d say while she was in there i saw about 15 folks go in and come out from voting. The drive thru line was about 15-20 cars deep as well. 
 

also our ballots have to go before and be approved by a voting commission. They said there’s a place to track that on Harris County website or something, but I haven’t seen anything. Anyone have any insight?

[gmr548 16518]

 

Even if we ignore the new voters elsewhere and the Cult 45 types that didn't show up for Cruz, those 765k new voters have to break for Biden by about 65-35 to beat Cruz's 2018 number.

At this point I think we're looking at a race that will very closely resemble the 2018 senate race when it's all said and done.

[gmr548 16518]

And, if every county continued in the same direction and made half of their movement from 2016 to 2018. . . Biden would be ahead right now by 43,000 votes. 

Thing is, most/all of the low hanging fruit flipped in 2018. The remaining gap is smaller but much harder to close.

[Brisketexan 104635]

Thing is, most/all of the low hanging fruit flipped in 2018. The remaining gap is smaller but much harder to close.

Yep. Texas is a GOP +4 or 5 state. They could run Beelzebub (and arguably have) and win my that margin.

[gmr548 16518]

Yep. Texas is a GOP +4 or 5 state. They could run Beelzebub (and arguably have) and win my that margin.

Worth noting that Texas was GOP +2 to eleventy billion (whatever Abbott won by) in 2018, which was the most favorable Democratic year in at least a decade. So it's still 10 points or so right of the nation, best case scenario.

[Biff Tannen 45500]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Anecdotally, just took my wife to vote. Sunday at the local inclusive church, which didn’t look like there were any services today. 
 

it took her 20 min (was 5th in line or so when polls opened at noon). It took her long because we have to fill out the paperwork to invalidate our mail in ballot. I’d say while she was in there i saw about 15 folks go in and come out from voting. The drive thru line was about 15-20 cars deep as well. 
 

also our ballots have to go before and be approved by a voting commission. They said there’s a place to track that on Harris County website or something, but I haven’t seen anything. Anyone have any insight?

The "paperwork" in Travis county to invalidate my mail in ballot was me signing a statement on an ipad.  Took 30 seconds.

[Biff Tannen 45500]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Yeah, lots of counties haven't reported Saturday as of the State site's update from about 20 minutes ago. Out of the 15 most populous counties, Galveston still hasn't reported anything from yesterday so neither of my updates will happen until we get better data.

Based only on what's been reported for yesterday, Saturday was a good day for Biden in terms of where voters turned out. Updated total is

Trump - 1,976,190 (50.9%)
Biden - 1,905,189 (49.1%)

The caveat is that the counties who haven't reported yet are Galveston and a bunch of smaller ones. So that will move things toward the Trump side of this simple analysis once those numbers come in. And yeah, I'm running it the same way you are. I have no way of accurately guessing the Dem/Rep tilt of early voting so I'm just using the final splits from 2018.

Forgive my ignorance, as it was my understanding that there would be no math, but if you are just using the splits from 2018, wouldn't the percentage just stay the same, regardless of how many people are voting?  If there are 100 votes or 10 million, doesn't this strategy result in the same percentage anyway?  With Rs always winning?

[Dahobbs 17449]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Forgive my ignorance, as it was my understanding that there would be no math, but if you are just using the splits from 2018, wouldn't the percentage just stay the same, regardless of how many people are voting?  If there are 100 votes or 10 million, doesn't this strategy result in the same percentage anyway?  With Rs always winning?

No, because the # of votes can increase in democratic counties, shifting the overall percentage. If all 10 million votes came from Travis county, Biden would win. 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Bateshorn 9905]

I appreciate you math people for doing work.

 

we all knew Texas was going to be a long shot, might be the 2022 governor’s race that ends up being the first earthquake in advance of 2024.

[Dahobbs 17449]

36 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

55 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

And, if every county continued in the same direction and made half of their movement from 2016 to 2018. . . Biden would be ahead right now by 43,000 votes. 

Thing is, most/all of the low hanging fruit flipped in 2018. The remaining gap is smaller but much harder to close.

If the 107 counties that shifted towards the GOP in 2018 go back to their 2016 ratios, the Democrats would need a 1.72% (172 basis points) leftward shift in the remaining counties. Again, it seems doable, but I'm not predicting it happens. 

[SydneyCarton 47889]

12 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I appreciate you math people for doing work.

 

we all knew Texas was going to be a long shot, might be the 2022 governor’s race that ends up being the first earthquake in advance of 2024.

Assuming we don’t nominate trash. 

[Dahobbs 17449]

deleted

Edited October 18, 2020 by Dahobbs
deleted

[thepop 4409]

Lupe Valdez smh

[gmr548 16518]

I appreciate you math people for doing work.
 
we all knew Texas was going to be a long shot, might be the 2022 governor’s race that ends up being the first earthquake in advance of 2024.

I'd expect a bounce for the GOP in Texas in '22 if Biden wins. Midterms are typically bad news for the president's party and Texas is going to be aggrieved Republican ground zero. Many suburban types will also migrate back to the GOP.

Who the Democrats nominate for governor matters for sure, but if Biden wins this election I expect Abbott to roll.

[gmr548 16518]

If the 107 counties that shifted towards the GOP in 2018 go back to their 2016 ratios

How likely do you think it is that are a significant number democratic voters out there in Trumpistan that sat out the 2018 senate race?

[pyrohornIII 4809]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Anecdotally, just took my wife to vote. Sunday at the local inclusive church, which didn’t look like there were any services today. 
 

it took her 20 min (was 5th in line or so when polls opened at noon). It took her long because we have to fill out the paperwork to invalidate our mail in ballot. I’d say while she was in there i saw about 15 folks go in and come out from voting. The drive thru line was about 15-20 cars deep as well. 
 

also our ballots have to go before and be approved by a voting commission. They said there’s a place to track that on Harris County website or something, but I haven’t seen anything. Anyone have any insight?

Yes, you voted a provisional ballot.  It will go to the ballot board and they will certify your mail in wasn't received and counted, and your provisional will turn into a regular ballot at that point.    They go through this to insure you don't get accused of voting twice.  It's a reach, but it is possible to do, so the voiding at the polls and dbl checking at the ballot board is just precautionary.  

Here's the tracker link, but not sure if they track voided ballots or not.    Harris Co VBM ballot tracker

The other counties that have these systems are listed in the voter info thread.

 

As a caveat, the ballot board actually counts the VBM, provisional and limited ballots.   They begin that on Election Day.   However some counties have signature committees that meet beforehand to verify signatures on VBM ballots jibe with the signatures on the application.   They then push everything to the ballot board for their final authorization.  It's a way to hopefully get some something remediated before ED, like an unsigned envelope, or a signature that just doesn't quite match.  

Edited October 18, 2020 by pyrohornIII

[Dahobbs 17449]

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

How likely do you think it is that are a significant number democratic voters out there in Trumpistan that sat out the 2018 senate race?

 

I think the best chance for a shift is that people actually liked Cruz more than Trump. Again, Cruz won the 2016 primary here significantly over Trump. A number of Cruz voters will either not vote or vote for Biden. I also think there is a good opportunity for further shift in places like Travis, Denton, and Collin counties that all saw an outsized increase in registered voters. I think those new voters break in favor of Biden significantly. 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Will the data be available after the election of how many voted R except for President?    I’m curious what % of the pop this might be. 

[pyrohornIII 4809]

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

How likely do you think it is that are a significant number democratic voters out there in Trumpistan that sat out the 2018 senate race?

 

I'd say as many as Republicans who are quietly voting for Biden.   It's pretty historic that presidential turnout is larger than in between years.  Beto's showing was a hint of a new awareness, made reality mainly by his campaigning strategy.  

[gmr548 16518]

Will the data be available after the election of how many voted R except for President?    I’m curious what % of the pop this might be. 

You can roughly figure it out by looking at president vs senate. Downballot races like railroad commissioner and SCOTX judges could also be a good gauge since there are fewer high info voters in those races, people are very likely to just follow partisanship there. But they're also likely to have lower vote totals than the top of the ticket.

[gmr548 16518]

I think the best chance for a shift is that people actually liked Cruz more than Trump. Again, Cruz won the 2016 primary here significantly over Trump. A number of Cruz voters will either not vote or vote for Biden. I also think there is a good opportunity for further shift in places like Travis, Denton, and Collin counties that all saw an outsized increase in registered voters. I think those new voters break in favor of Biden significantly. 

When your hypothesis is rooted in the idea that people like Ted Cruz, maybe it's time to reevaluate.

I kid. Sort of. Trump is the one with the cult of personality. Cruz hasn't been particularly well liked, even among Republicans, since he showed up in Texas politics. Look at his performance vs every other statewide GOP. Fucking Potty Patrick ran ahead of Cruz. He may not be any worse liked than Trump, but he isn't any more popular either. Trump lost or won with
That theory also just doesn't really pass the smell test. The 2018 midterms were very much a referendum on Trump at the national level. The result of the senate race was very much in line with approval/ disapproval of the president. Who looked at Cruz gargling Trump's balls for two years and said, "Fuck Donald Trump, but this Cruz guy is alright!"?

The part about new voters in urban/ subruban counties is true, but not material to 100+ rural counties getting more Democratic. And as I said before, even if they break overwhelmingly for Biden, he barely gets to Cruz's number. If we assume 2018 is the base case (reasonable based on polls), it's not impossible that Biden could win if the stars align. It'd mean new voters breaking hard for Biden as mentioned, additional suburban defects and defects from seniors in urban counties, record breaking black turnout in Houston, Dallas, and East Texas, and a turnout surge in the RGV and El Paso.

But seriously, everything has to go perfect for that to happen.

I'd say as many as Republicans who are quietly voting for Biden.   It's pretty historic that presidential turnout is larger than in between years.  Beto's showing was a hint of a new awareness, made reality mainly by his campaigning strategy.  

I'd argue that shift largely showed itself in 2018 in the senate race. Could be some wiggle room there for older voters, but I doubt it in the rural areas. Cult 45 country.

[Brisketexan 104635]

37 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'd expect a bounce for the GOP in Texas in '22 if Biden wins. Midterms are typically bad news for the president's party and Texas is going to be aggrieved Republican ground zero. Many suburban types will also migrate back to the GOP.

Who the Democrats nominate for governor matters for sure, but if Biden wins this election I expect Abbott to roll.

Yep.  Remember Reagan Democrats?  Well, for a very different set of reasons, I think we'll see "Biden Republicans" (Lincoln Project being the most visible example).  If the GOP ever decides to have the good manners to fold up the Klan robes and put them back in the bottom dresser drawer (note, they won't get rid of them.....just put them away in case they still need them for a "special occasion"), they'll go running back to the GOP.

The job for the rest of us is to remind the world, and enough of those voters, that the evil isn't in the GOP deciding to wear the Klan robes and strut about.....the evil is in proudly owning them in the first place.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Since most people posting here appear to support Biden, I was curious if Biden did even better. Could the Texas electorate have shifted more left since 2018?

• If Biden outperforms Beto by 1% and Trump underperforms Cruz by 1% in each county, Biden would be up by 7K in Texas right now.

Disclaimer: I'm not considering that Dems are more likely to have early voted more than the GOP.  On Nov. 4th, it doesn't matter when someone voted.

Factor this in:  Hillary isn't running.   I know plenty of older people that have had an intense hatred of her and her husband since the 90s, and I know plenty who voted for Trump as a result, including some who were not Cult 45, and actually stated that if somebody else was running, they wouldn't have voted Trump, but they absolutely could not let her in the White House.  The "she killed Vince Foster" types.  The "she was raring to take another shot at socializing our healthcare again".   And then you have the Benghazi folks.  And, let's not kid ourselves, there were plenty of misogynists out there.

Now plenty of those may have been programmed by Fox News since 2016, but it wouldn't take many who were holding their nose and voting Trump, to vote for Biden and change things up.  Biden was Obama's VP, and these people could not keep Obama out in 2008 and 2012.  And Trump's core audience was there in 2008 and 2012, so it's not like they manifested out of nowhere.

People blow off the Hillary factor, or get offended that those things were held against her, but it's a real thing.  Hillary really pissed off a bunch of boomers.

And those people that hated Hillary or voted for Trump as a result, plenty of them will be doing much worse over the past year, than they were under Obama/Biden.  I think people are really underestimating just how shitty the economy is for a lot of folks.

Edited October 18, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[TwiceHorn 31291]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep. Texas is a GOP +4 or 5 state. They could run Beelzebub (and arguably have) and win my that margin.

I have it on good information that Sid Miller is Beelzebubba.

h/t to the Dead Milkmen.

[Dahobbs 17449]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

When your hypothesis is rooted in the idea that people like Ted Cruz, maybe it's time to reevaluate.

I kid. Sort of. Trump is the one with the cult of personality. Cruz hasn't been particularly well liked, even among Republicans, since he showed up in Texas politics. Look at his performance vs every other statewide GOP. Fucking Potty Patrick ran ahead of Cruz. He may not be any worse liked than Trump, but he isn't any more popular either. Trump lost or won with
That theory also just doesn't really pass the smell test. The 2018 midterms were very much a referendum on Trump at the national level. The result of the senate race was very much in line with approval/ disapproval of the president. Who looked at Cruz gargling Trump's balls for two years and said, "Fuck Donald Trump, but this Cruz guy is alright!"?

The part about new voters in urban/ subruban counties is true, but not material to 100+ rural counties getting more Democratic. And as I said before, even if they break overwhelmingly for Biden, he barely gets to Cruz's number. If we assume 2018 is the base case (reasonable based on polls), it's not impossible that Biden could win if the stars align. It'd mean new voters breaking hard for Biden as mentioned, additional suburban defects and defects from seniors in urban counties, record breaking black turnout in Houston, Dallas, and East Texas, and a turnout surge in the RGV and El Paso.

But seriously, everything has to go perfect for that to happen.





I'd argue that shift largely showed itself in 2018 in the senate race. Could be some wiggle room there for older voters, but I doubt it in the rural areas. Cult 45 country.

 

I just don't think you can take much from Lupe's non-existent campaign. Again, Cruz beat Trump in the primary, I think that shows he was more popular here in Texas than Trump. I personally think that is still the case, largely by people hating Trump more rather than any real affection for Cruz. Granted, the evidence for this is limited and I'm going mostly on feeling. 

I think the smaller counties reverting back to their 2016 margins (technically a move in favor of Biden) + larger shifts in the top 11 counties give Biden a decent shot at winning. The 23 largest counties have actually seen a larger percentage increase in voters rolls from 2018-2020(8.2% increase) than they saw from 2016-2018 (5.3% increase). I think that can cause some real movement in the ratios. The smaller counties saw a much smaller change (~3% increase). 

[Pablo 494]

26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Factor this in:  Hillary isn't running.   I know plenty of older people that have had an intense hatred of her and her husband since the 90s, and I know plenty who voted for Trump as a result, including some who were not Cult 45, and actually stated that if somebody else was running, they wouldn't have voted Trump, but they absolutely could not let her in the White House. 

I'm gen-x and this was my feeling. 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

3 minutes ago, Pablo said:

I'm gen-x and this was my feeling. 

As am I - I was thinking older - I know plenty among my parents' friends that absolutely loathed her, and they made it clear in 2008 and 2016.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Pollsters say it’s 50/50, though there’s only a 10% chance of that. 

[Larry T. Spider 1741]

Don’t underestimate the last minute comey surprise in 2016. You won’t see something like that this year, and even if you did, all the Dems will have already voted early or by mail.

[Dahobbs 17449]

More fun with numbers: if you start with the 2018 numbers and assume that the additional registered voters favor Biden over Trump 65% to 35% (and are equally likely to vote as previously registered voters), then Biden would have a lead of 12,000 votes right now. (N.B., this actually results in Travis County moving toward Trump by 1.8%). This isn't entirely crazy as there was a pretty strong correlation between % increase in registered voters and leftward shift in 2018 (including that a negative shift in registered voters resulted in decreased Democratic support).  

Again, none of this is a prediction. I'm just looking at what it would take for Biden to be ahead right now. 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Voldemort86 2259]

The vote tracker app for tarrant county is down today.

[BradInATX 9208]

46 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

More fun with numbers: if you start with the 2018 numbers and assume that the additional registered voters favor Biden over Trump 65% to 35% (and are equally likely to vote as previously registered voters), then Biden would have a lead of 12,000 votes right now. (N.B., this actually results in Travis County moving toward Trump by 1.8%). This isn't entirely crazy as there was a pretty strong correlation between % increase in registered voters and leftward shift in 2018 (including that a negative shift in registered voters resulted in decreased Democratic support).  

Again, none of this is a prediction. I'm just looking at what it would take for Biden to be ahead right now. 

Yeah, I was messing around with that a bit myself the other day. You have to really push the boundaries in regards to makeup of new voters and of overall turnout to get anywhere close. 

The best realistic scenario I could whip up for Biden to win was: extraordinarily high turnout (60%-ish), a big dem lean for new registrations, and Biden running a bit ahead of Beto. FWIW, his RCP average is about 2.4% better than Beto's was, but there's still a lot of things that have to break perfectly. It's a huge long shot. But I think it's going to be within 2-3% which is a minor victory assuming Biden wins otherwise.

[Hawndoh 2382]

My prediction: new registrations, plus record turnout, plus continuing demographics change are all getting Biden pretty close, and I think suburban white women will push him across the line. I think Texas shocks everyone and goes Biden.

[HenryJames 65890]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

58 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

My prediction: new registrations, plus record turnout, plus continuing demographics change are all getting Biden pretty close, and I think suburban white women will push him across the line. I think Texas shocks everyone and goes Biden.

I hope it’s by like 100 votes, and then all those EV hit the blue bar. Might get us some traction on EV reform, which should at least be a topic of discussion. Of course as with late term scotus confirmations, as soon as the EV favors the other side, both sides will switch their positions. 

[quigley 1527]

5 hours ago, thepop said:

Lupe Valdez smh

Lina Hidalgo 2022!

[quigley 1527]

5 hours ago, gmr548 said:

When your hypothesis is rooted in the idea that people like Ted Cruz, maybe it's time to reevaluate.

I kid. Sort of. Trump is the one with the cult of personality. Cruz hasn't been particularly well liked, even among Republicans, since he showed up in Texas politics. Look at his performance vs every other statewide GOP. Fucking Potty Patrick ran ahead of Cruz. He may not be any worse liked than Trump, but he isn't any more popular either. Trump lost or won with
That theory also just doesn't really pass the smell test. The 2018 midterms were very much a referendum on Trump at the national level. The result of the senate race was very much in line with approval/ disapproval of the president. Who looked at Cruz gargling Trump's balls for two years and said, "Fuck Donald Trump, but this Cruz guy is alright!"?

The part about new voters in urban/ subruban counties is true, but not material to 100+ rural counties getting more Democratic. And as I said before, even if they break overwhelmingly for Biden, he barely gets to Cruz's number. If we assume 2018 is the base case (reasonable based on polls), it's not impossible that Biden could win if the stars align. It'd mean new voters breaking hard for Biden as mentioned, additional suburban defects and defects from seniors in urban counties, record breaking black turnout in Houston, Dallas, and East Texas, and a turnout surge in the RGV and El Paso.

But seriously, everything has to go perfect for that to happen.

I'd argue that shift largely showed itself in 2018 in the senate race. Could be some wiggle room there for older voters, but I doubt it in the rural areas. Cult 45 country.

Good stuff.

All of the positives for Biden are supposed to headed his direction except Latino vote. Apparently Latino vote is slightly better for Trump in key states so may save him in FL, TX, and less likely AZ.

For TX to finally get purple/blue, correcting the longstanding anemic turnout of Latinos in TX needs to be addressed. If Beto's done it, it's probably his most significant political accomplishment.

Edited October 19, 2020 by quigley

[Hank Kingsley 20712]

2 minutes ago, quigley said:

Apparently Latino vote is slightly better for Trump in key states so may save him in FL, TX, and less likely AZ.

This is a fair point and definitely a concern. 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Yeah, I was messing around with that a bit myself the other day. You have to really push the boundaries in regards to makeup of new voters and of overall turnout to get anywhere close. 

The best realistic scenario I could whip up for Biden to win was: extraordinarily high turnout (60%-ish), a big dem lean for new registrations, and Biden running a bit ahead of Beto. FWIW, his RCP average is about 2.4% better than Beto's was, but there's still a lot of things that have to break perfectly. It's a huge long shot. But I think it's going to be within 2-3% which is a minor victory assuming Biden wins otherwise.

i think it is pretty realistic to expect biden to run ahead of beto with the generic white voter.  i said back in beto's run that it would be better if we had a lloyd bentsen clone running.  that is basically biden.  he'll gain with the prim and proper of our society and (god bless him) Beto's GOTV efforts are continuing which he'll benefit from.  minorities it might be a tough sell, and while i think biden speaks to the rural f250 driver better than beto, i think they are too far gone to actually switch any meaningful votes.

[gmr548 16518]

I just don't think you can take much from Lupe's non-existent campaign. Again, Cruz beat Trump in the primary, I think that shows he was more popular here in Texas than Trump. I personally think that is still the case, largely by people hating Trump more rather than any real affection for Cruz. Granted, the evidence for this is limited and I'm going mostly on feeling. 
I think the smaller counties reverting back to their 2016 margins (technically a move in favor of Biden) + larger shifts in the top 11 counties give Biden a decent shot at winning. The 23 largest counties have actually seen a larger percentage increase in voters rolls from 2018-2020(8.2% increase) than they saw from 2016-2018 (5.3% increase). I think that can cause some real movement in the ratios. The smaller counties saw a much smaller change (~3% increase). 

What does Lupe Valdez have to do with anything? When I refer to 2018 I'm talking about the senate race.

Cruz won the Texas primary with 43.8 percent of the vote. So 56.2 percent of Texas GOPs voted against their sitting senator in the primary. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. And again, it's well documented that Republican voters gave fallen in line. This is a pretty weak theory honestly.

I can't argue your hunch but we don't have any evidence that Biden is going to perform better than Beto in rural areas.

And it's worth prefacing that this entire conversation of whether a GOP presidential candidate is going to get by in Texas, which is a solid 10 points right of the nation, with a 2-3 point win or lose it outright means said candidate is turbo-furked nationally.

[Dahobbs 17449]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

What does Lupe Valdez have to do with anything? When I refer to 2018 I'm talking about the senate race.

Cruz won the Texas primary with 43.8 percent of the vote. So 56.2 percent of Texas GOPs voted against their sitting senator in the primary. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. And again, it's well documented that Republican voters gave fallen in line. This is a pretty weak theory honestly.

I can't argue your hunch but we don't have any evidence that Biden is going to perform better than Beto in rural areas.

And it's worth prefacing that this entire conversation of whether a GOP presidential candidate is going to get by in Texas, which is a solid 10 points right of the nation, with a 2-3 point win or lose it outright means said candidate is turbo-furked nationally.
 

 

I only brought up Valdez because you said Cruz ran behind other statewide GOP races. I think a lot of that is due to weakness with Valdez effecting other races. 

Anyway, as I said, not making predictions. I'm just theorizing how a Biden win could manifest. Well, that and hoping. 

[TwiceHorn 31291]

On 10/17/2020 at 12:29 PM, Ted Lange said:

But wasn’t this a thing prior to that too?

Yes.  It's a longstanding "phenomenon."

I would guess that historically, Republican voters were of an age and wealth that they had little difficulty in voting and viewed it as some combination of civic duty and self-preservation.  Republicans weren't always craven and evil and I think had a general tendency to be more staid and responsible and even politically engaged if not driven by "causes."

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

I would assume that Democrats especially struggle now statewide because its doubtful that even the state party knows how to help them. When one party cannot win for a full generation, I assume any knowledge or/and infrastructure is also gone. When was the last statewide Democrat elected? Ann Richards barely beating Clayton Williams in '91?