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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers


StassneyHorn

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  On 10/19/2020 at 2:28 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I would assume that Democrats especially struggle now statewide because its doubtful that even the state party knows how to help them. When one party cannot win for a full generation, I assume any knowledge or/and infrastructure is also gone. When was the last statewide Democrat elected? Ann Richards barely beating Clayton Williams in '91?

 

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i don't think there was much knowledge or infrastructure in place in the state party when there had been 100 years of 1 party rule.  no need to have knowledge and infrastructure in the state party. 

Edited by elfenix
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  On 10/19/2020 at 2:28 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I would assume that Democrats especially struggle now statewide because its doubtful that even the state party knows how to help them. When one party cannot win for a full generation, I assume any knowledge or/and infrastructure is also gone. When was the last statewide Democrat elected? Ann Richards barely beating Clayton Williams in '91?

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Bob Bullock didn't leave office until January of 1999.  There's probably another I'm forgetting.

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  On 10/18/2020 at 7:59 PM, Larry T. Spider said:

Don’t underestimate the last minute comey surprise in 2016. You won’t see something like that this year, and even if you did, all the Dems will have already voted early or by mail.

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They are blowing their load with some stolen laptop hard drive (and given who all have had their hands on it, it would never stand up in court, no matter what's on it).  If they had something better, they'd be using it right now, and there's no way Trump could keep his mouth shut about it.  I just don't see any major surprises that could change early turnout.

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I imagine that these early numbers are currently scaring many republicans in Texas and they’re looking at Abbott calling him a dumb mf-er.

Even if Texas votes against Trump, it’s doubtful Texas is the state that puts Biden over the top. But if a couple more House seats are lost, or the Texas House flips blue, Abbott will take the blame for extending early voting.

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  On 10/19/2020 at 5:52 AM, elfenix said:
is it possible to scrape the primary election voter lists and then compare that against the who's voted list to estimate turnout from a partisan perspective so far?
I've seen that data reported over the last week, I think in this thread. Something like 90 percent of voters have a TX voting history. Further broken down by which primaries they'd voted in.
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  On 10/19/2020 at 12:26 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I imagine that these early numbers are currently scaring many republicans in Texas and they’re looking at Abbott calling him a dumb mf-er.

Even if Texas votes against Trump, it’s doubtful Texas is the state that puts Biden over the top. But if a couple more House seats are lost, or the Texas House flips blue, Abbott will take the blame for extending early voting.

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Losing the Texas house due to early voting has to have Abbott sweating .... as it’ll likely cause a primary challenge and a tougher re-election / the possible unraveling of the Republican stranglehold of the state.

Early voting is his ‘sword of Damocl.... branch of oaken trees’.

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  On 10/19/2020 at 3:27 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Bob Bullock didn't leave office until January of 1999.  There's probably another I'm forgetting.

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Yes but Bob wasn’t really coordinating with Dems by his last election in 94. That relationship soured in 88 when he endorsed Bush for prez. The modern dem coalition was last successful with Ann Richards. Been a long slog back but it appears to be having a resurrection under Beto.

 

 

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  On 10/17/2020 at 12:30 AM, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/trump-wins-texas-gop-loses/

 

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

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Thanks for the article.  I live in Lakewood area and it's strange.  There are more Biden than Trump signs, but i have seen a ton of single signs for Genv. in people's yards.  no other candidates, just her.

She changed her tact pretty quickly and stopped linking herself to Trump and started going the business woman route.  We probably get a flyer every other day from her campaign.

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  On 10/19/2020 at 1:31 PM, Dnaguy said:

Losing the Texas house due to early voting has to have Abbott sweating .... as it’ll likely cause a primary challenge and a tougher re-election / the possible unraveling of the Republican stranglehold of the state.

Early voting is his ‘sword of Damocl.... branch of oaken trees’.

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Very well done...

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A lot to go over from the weekend

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Updated estimated totals based on county 2018 vote share:

Trump - 2,054,833 (50.6%)
Biden - 2,009,175 (49.4%)

CAVEATS:

1. You see the zeroes in the second image above? Many counties did not open their polls yesterday. Some counties, including Galveston, were also closed on Saturday.
2. So when you see that last data point tightening up, keep in mind that urban counties were all open except for Galveston so that explains the tightening. It also explains the bigger than usual drop on Saturday that you see in the top chart.
3. All of the 15 most populous counties are planning to be open both days next weekend.

Edited by Huckleberry
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  On 10/19/2020 at 12:26 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I imagine that these early numbers are currently scaring many republicans in Texas and they’re looking at Abbott calling him a dumb mf-er.

Even if Texas votes against Trump, it’s doubtful Texas is the state that puts Biden over the top. But if a couple more House seats are lost, or the Texas House flips blue, Abbott will take the blame for extending early voting.

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It’s weird to me to see people say if the Texas house flips blue- I can’t imagine that’s not already baked in everywhere. 

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  On 10/19/2020 at 5:39 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

As far as weekday vs weekend numbers, a lot of companies are giving time off to vote so why burn a weekend?

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One day PTO to vote should be federal law. In addition to whatever pto you would normally have. If it only takes 10 minutes, enjoy your day off. If you use it but don’t vote, enjoy your day off slacker. If you aren’t allowed to vote, enjoy your day off. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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  On 10/19/2020 at 5:45 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

One day PTO to vote should be federal law. I addition to whatever pto you would normally have. If it only takes 10 minutes, enjoy your day off. If you use it but don’t vote, enjoy your day off slacker. If you aren’t allowed to vote, enjoy your day off. 

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essentially this. if this election cycle has shown anything, if you make it easier for people to vote (mail-in ballots and extended early voting), then they actually, I dunno, vote. 

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  On 10/19/2020 at 6:01 PM, Pancho said:
 

Did anyone bother pointing out that Texas's interest in securing the vote from fraud isn't in conflict with letting people prove they are who they say they are? And, in fact, is exactly what Texas has been telling citizens they need to do?

 

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  On 10/19/2020 at 6:14 PM, David Dennison said:

TIL that you have to sign a screen when you vote this year. I don't know what they compare it to (if they do), but my screen signature is always janky compared to paper. Hopefully, it won't matter. 

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Most of us have a drivers license to compare it to. Voter reg card maybe?

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  On 10/19/2020 at 1:31 PM, Dnaguy said:

Losing the Texas house due to early voting has to have Abbott sweating .... as it’ll likely cause a primary challenge and a tougher re-election / the possible unraveling of the Republican stranglehold of the state.

Early voting is his ‘sword of Damocl.... branch of oaken trees’.

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It’s not like the legislature gets anything productive done anyway with potty Patrick leading the state senate.

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  On 10/19/2020 at 6:14 PM, David Dennison said:

TIL that you have to sign a screen when you vote this year. I don't know what they compare it to (if they do), but my screen signature is always janky compared to paper. Hopefully, it won't matter. 

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I hope not. Whenever I sign on a touchscreen I always do my initials, which does not match my drivers license. 

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  On 10/19/2020 at 6:38 PM, thepop said:

I hope not. Whenever I sign on a touchscreen I always do my initials, which does not match my drivers license. 

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Me, either.  

But it doesn't matter.  Once the poll worker matches your ID, you get a regular ballot.  From that point, it's secret.  There is no way to match up which ballot goes with which voter.  So even if your signature doesn't match, there is no way for them to find your ballot and claw it back.

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  On 10/19/2020 at 6:01 PM, Pancho said:

 

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This pretty much sums it up

  Quote

A three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled Monday — after more than 4 million Texans have already voted — that the state was likely to succeed on the merits of its argument that Texas’s signature-verification procedures are constitutional and necessary to prevent voter fraud. The panel comprised Judges Patrick Higginbotham, Jerry Smith and Andrew Oldham, all three appointed by Republican presidents.

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All they are supposed to do is look at the name on the ID and make sure it is "close" to the name on your voter registration, which is in their voter pad.    They use the picture to check if it looks like you or vice versa.   The signature is a way for them to show later you did indeed check in to vote and were issued a ballot.

  On 10/19/2020 at 12:57 PM, gmr548 said:
  On 10/19/2020 at 5:52 AM, elfenix said:
is it possible to scrape the primary election voter lists and then compare that against the who's voted list to estimate turnout from a partisan perspective so far?
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I've seen that data reported over the last week, I think in this thread. Something like 90 percent of voters have a TX voting history. Further broken down by which primaries they'd voted in.

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While this is somewhat accurate, it's skewed a lot in rural areas because most rural counties only have Rep candidates for local races.  So people who want to vote local vote in the Rep primary.     So you get a fair number of crossover votes from red to blue in the general, since those locals are now unopposed on the ballot.  Will be even more so now, with the elimination of straight party.

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  On 10/19/2020 at 2:05 PM, gyroprotagonist said:

Thanks for the article.  I live in Lakewood area and it's strange.  There are more Biden than Trump signs, but i have seen a ton of single signs for Genv. in people's yards.  no other candidates, just her.

She changed her tact pretty quickly and stopped linking herself to Trump and started going the business woman route.  We probably get a flyer every other day from her campaign.

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She mentions her grandmother in her campaign material but otherwise keeps it quiet that she's of the Carr P. Collins family.  They are not only wealthy and connected, but they're in their fourth or fifth generation and are fucking everywhere.

Odds are pretty decent those signs are based on friendship or acquaintance with her, or "six degrees of Collins family."

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Some quick comparisons for the 15 most populous Texas counties:

Total Voters (Percentage) Voting Early In-Person through the first Sunday

2014: 701,670 (7.82%)
2016: 2,403,959 (24.63%)
2018: 2,252,217 (21.89%)
2020: 2,419,257 (21.74%)

(note that there is one fewer day of voting for 2020 because it opened on Tuesday instead of Monday - there were 6 early days added, not 7)

Total Voters (Percentage) Voting Early In-Person starting on the first Tuesday through the first Sunday (removing first Monday from 2014-2018)

2014: 588,048 (6.55%)
2016: 2,009,679 (20.59%)
2018: 1,855,715 (18.03%)
2020: 2,419,257 (21.74%)
Edited by Huckleberry
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Needs 12,000 votes in 3 hours to meet 70,000 or 18,000 votes in 3 hours to match the 2nd week Monday RV percentage from 2016. It appears to be on pace to do the latter (assuming my math is right: 58,600/9 hours of voting = 6,511 votes per hour * 3 = 19,533 ). 

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  On 10/19/2020 at 7:18 PM, Huckleberry said:

Some quick comparisons for the 15 most populous Texas counties:

Total Voters (Percentage) Voting Early In-Person through the first Sunday

2014: 701,670 (7.82%)
2016: 2,403,959 (24.63%)
2018: 2,252,217 (21.89%)
2020: 2,419,257 (21.74%)

(note that there is one fewer day of voting for 2020 because it opened on Tuesday instead of Monday - there were 6 early days added, not 7)

Total Voters (Percentage) Voting Early In-Person starting on the first Tuesday through the first Sunday (removing first Monday from 2014-2018)

2014: 588,048 (6.55%)
2016: 2,009,679 (20.59%)
2018: 1,855,715 (18.03%)
2020: 2,419,257 (21.74%)
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that is surprising.  doesn't seem like we are up on 2016.

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based on the confused reaction i got:

first set of numbers shows us behind by 3%, but with one fewer day.

second set of numbers shows us up by 1%, but you've cut off a very big day (day 1) of the 2016.  

raw numbers, of course, are higher.  but the enthusiasm of folks just can't wait any more to vote which should result in a higher % (which I assumed wasn't there in 2016) doesn't seem all that apparent.

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  On 10/19/2020 at 10:30 PM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

based on the confused reaction i got:

first set of numbers shows us behind by 3%, but with one fewer day.

second set of numbers shows us up by 1%, but you've cut off a very big day (day 1) of the 2016.  

raw numbers, of course, are higher.  but the enthusiasm of folks just can't wait any more to vote which should result in a higher % (which I assumed wasn't there in 2016) doesn't seem all that apparent.

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Being up by over one percent of RVs in the same amount of days shows additional enthusiasm. 

After today, we'll be able to compare more like to like: the first 7 days of 2020 with first 7 days of 2016. I think the comparison is going to be favorable to 2020. And  I'll point out that 2016 had higher voter participation relative to population (46.45%) than any Presidential election in Texas going back to 1996.  

Edited by Dahobbs
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