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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers


StassneyHorn

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Yeah the I don’t give a shit about lines I’m voting ASAP people have voted, and most of the opportunistic there appears to be no line voters have voted. The next 10 days will be the trickle of planned time voters before the shit it’s almost over spike, and then we see how many people are Election Day only voters. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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  On 10/21/2020 at 5:09 PM, Dnaguy said:

They always do. 

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While I get this sentiment. There is a reason for it.

The people down there aren’t stupid. They are well aware that the both parties just want their votes and once the voting is done, won’t do jack shit to help them. No matter who they vote for. 
 

You have to be a democrat to win a local race. No matter what it is. So the democratic primaries take supreme importance. Once that’s done and over with, who the fuck cares? 
 

Nationally, both the Republican and Democratic Party have continued the drug war. Neither party does anything in the border except send more guards. While the dems do a little more for them, it’s almost like who cares? Won’t matter. Manana. 
 

I hope they come out in record numbers this year. I kind of doubt it but we shall see. 

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  On 10/21/2020 at 1:39 PM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Even after four years of watching this, people don’t still fully appreciate the damage Donald Trump is doing to the foundational pillars of a functional republic. GWB never flirted with that sort of shit.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Information_Awareness

Some of the TIA that continued on is still....un-American, but had it went the way it originally was intended, it would have been automatically tracking the habits of all Americans - what magazines they buy, what they order online, buy in stores, who they talk to on the phone, etc., all without warrants.

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  On 10/21/2020 at 5:47 PM, JimmyJames said:

While I get this sentiment. There is a reason for it.

The people down there aren’t stupid. They are well aware that the both parties just want their votes and once the voting is done, won’t do jack shit to help them. No matter who they vote for. 

You have to be a democrat to win a local race. No matter what it is. So the democratic primaries take supreme importance. Once that’s done and over with, who the fuck cares? 

Nationally, both the Republican and Democratic Party have continued the drug war. Neither party does anything in the border except send more guards. While the dems do a little more for them, it’s almost like who cares? Won’t matter. Manana. 

I hope they come out in record numbers this year. I kind of doubt it but we shall see. 

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Rick Perry gave a helluva speech back in August of 2001.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

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  On 10/21/2020 at 2:55 PM, bolverk said:

Yeah, I've been frustrated that no source that I know of is providing one for Texas, so I figured I'd do it myself. They've made it easy to make maps in spreadsheets now a days.

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For the Texas SOS, the lack of a decent voting map is a feature, not a bug!

 

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  On 10/21/2020 at 5:47 PM, JimmyJames said:

While I get this sentiment. There is a reason for it.

The people down there aren’t stupid. They are well aware that the both parties just want their votes and once the voting is done, won’t do jack shit to help them. No matter who they vote for. 
 

You have to be a democrat to win a local race. No matter what it is. So the democratic primaries take supreme importance. Once that’s done and over with, who the fuck cares? 
 

Nationally, both the Republican and Democratic Party have continued the drug war. Neither party does anything in the border except send more guards. While the dems do a little more for them, it’s almost like who cares? Won’t matter. Manana. 
 

I hope they come out in record numbers this year. I kind of doubt it but we shall see. 

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They want everyone’s vote. At least everyone that’s supposed to vote for them. They help the money. The money is predominantly with old white people. 

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Think the slow down is just the inevitable result of having an extra week. You have the “vote ASAP” crowd, and you have the procrastinators. This week is the people that don’t quite fit into either group. I voted at Brodie-Slaughter Randall’s (it’s not actually in Randall’s this time but same strip center) at 5 today. In and out in 12 min 26 seconds. And I went through the ballot 4 times to make sure I didn’t accidentally select an R or Mad Connor. Probably could’ve been out in under 10. The line was maybe a tad longer when I left, but it moves super faster...basically walk in slow motion

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  On 10/21/2020 at 11:06 PM, SquishMitten said:

Think the slow down is just the inevitable result of having an extra week. You have the “vote ASAP” crowd, and you have the procrastinators. This week is the people that don’t quite fit into either group. I voted at Brodie-Slaughter Randall’s (it’s not actually in Randall’s this time but same strip center) at 5 today. In and out in 12 min 26 seconds. And I went through the ballot 4 times to make sure I didn’t accidentally select an R. Probably could’ve been out in under 10. The line was maybe a tad longer when I left, but it moves super faster...basically walk in slow motion

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Week 2 is mainly “ avoid the lines crowd” like me. 

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  On 10/21/2020 at 11:06 PM, Ghost of LL said:

That is incredible.  Apart from everything else, that is a huge benefit for those of us who work long hours.

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Lots of odd hour shift workers on the east side that could take advantage of late night and early morning hours to vote as they come off shift. 

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  On 10/21/2020 at 4:32 PM, Huckleberry said:

Actual final report for Tuesday

image.png.99d24be745c9682d5132d9f28507dc12.png

image.thumb.png.2cba9c51f4ab3cab46cedb186fd301cd.png

Using 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 2,710,016 (50.9%)
Biden - 2,615,016 (49.1%)
 

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If it hold at 3% per day for the rest of the week, 1% each day this weekend, 2% daily next mon-thu, then 5% on Friday, I think that puts Texas at around 57% for early voting. Even another 5% on Election Day would make a 62% turnout, which in those tabulated counties would mean around 7 million votes. Accurate?  Fair goal?

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  On 10/22/2020 at 12:50 AM, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

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I expect about 3 million who did not vote in 2016 out of 11 million total. Note that around 500,000 2016 voters have died and a similar number has moved out of state, so there can only be around 8 million who voted in 2016. Over 2.1 million new voters will be in the big 11 counties that voted almost 60/40 for Beto. 

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Very preliminary look at the 15 most populous counties today:

image.png.b0ab8a33fef35915893973b86d26beda.png

Based on the below:

image.thumb.png.db52fd68625f18651dbd7ed6afda7059.png

Where just like last night orange cells are estimates applying the cumulative day-over-day percentage change from the counties that have reported to the county on that line and yellow cells are the previous day's mail ballot totals for counties who haven't reported yet.

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  On 10/22/2020 at 3:29 AM, Huckleberry said:

Very preliminary look at the 15 most populous counties today:

image.png.b0ab8a33fef35915893973b86d26beda.png

Based on the below:

image.thumb.png.db52fd68625f18651dbd7ed6afda7059.png

Where just like last night orange cells are estimates applying the cumulative day-over-day percentage change from the counties that have reported to the county on that line and yellow cells are the previous day's mail ballot totals for counties who haven't reported yet.

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Based on those estimates it probably dipped to ~500K statewide putting Texas at just north of 5.8 million total. 7 million by Saturday night and 8.5 million by next Friday night is in the realm of possibility. Then even if half the people who voted on election day in 2016 vote on election day this time the total will be close to 11 million. If the election day vote is that low  Texas will be called very fast.

8 million+ early votes should seal the win for Biden as long as 5 million or more are in the 11 biggest counties

 

 

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Final Wednesday update:

image.png.add46b23feb38e0839e5d7f957c1ce1d.png

image.thumb.png.775338de2b69e1a07e876ab5f8968312.png

Overall Texas estimate based on 2018 county voting shares with 2020 turnout to date:

Trump - 2,991,760 (50.9%)
Biden - 2,883,924 (49.1%)

5,875,684 votes are in so far, which almost certainly means that over half the people who will vote in Texas this year have already done so.
 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Collin passed Williamson to take the lead in total turnout so far among the 15 most populous counties. Actually happened yesterday but I didn't notice.

Statewide leader is the humming metropolis that is Scurry County. 5,863 voters out of 9,849 registered voters have already voted there for a 61.79% turnout already. Bringing up the rear is Hudspeth County with only 215 out of 2,085 votes in for a 10.31% turnout.

Edited by Huckleberry
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  On 10/22/2020 at 12:09 PM, Huckleberry said:

Collin passed Williamson to take the lead in total turnout so far among the 15 most populous counties. Actually happened yesterday but I didn't notice.

Statewide leader is the humming metropolis that is Scurry County. 5,863 voters out of 9,849 registered voters have already voted there for a 61.79% turnout already. Bringing up the rear is Hudspeth County with only 215 out of 2,085 votes in for a 10.31% turnout.

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That Scurry note is a data point for what you discussed earlier this week: Trump voters are taking advantage of early in person voting well.  There may not be a Nov. 3 in person red avalanche.

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  On 10/22/2020 at 12:09 PM, Huckleberry said:

Collin passed Williamson to take the lead in total turnout so far among the 15 most populous counties. Actually happened yesterday but I didn't notice.

Statewide leader is the humming metropolis that is Scurry County. 5,863 voters out of 9,849 registered voters have already voted there for a 61.79% turnout already. Bringing up the rear is Hudspeth County with only 215 out of 2,085 votes in for a 10.31% turnout.

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Aren’t both of these crappy trump counties?
 

hope I’m wrong.

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  On 10/22/2020 at 1:50 PM, Texaspython said:

Collin is rapidly changing. It’ll go Trump but I bet it’s more like 55/45 this time. Repubs used to pile up votes there, not so much anymore.

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Hoping tarrant county is the same about the rapidly changing. Trump won it in 2016 by a decent margin, Beto won it in 2018 barely. Would be nice if Biden wins it by 50k.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Voted at Carpenter Rec Center yesterday in Central Plano. It was a seamless process as usual. I saw several Asians and young people voting. One militia looking idiot outside holding a "Vote Republican" sign but there were 3-4 people holding "Biden/Harris" signs. 

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  On 10/22/2020 at 2:02 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Hoping tarrant county is the same about the rapidly changing. Trump won it in 2016 by a decent margin, Beto won it in 2018 barely. Would be nice if Biden wins it by 50k.

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The problem with Tarrant is twofold. Somehow, Repubs have managed to hold onto city guv in FW and Arlington. It’s really shocking because there are whole bunch of dem votes there but no one has been able to harness it. Surprisingly, most of the recent dem vote growth has been in the mid cities.

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  On 10/22/2020 at 3:09 PM, Texaspython said:

The problem with Tarrant is twofold. Somehow, Repubs have managed to hold onto city guv in FW and Arlington. It’s really shocking because there are whole bunch of dem votes there but no one has been able to harness it. Surprisingly, most of the recent dem vote growth has been in the mid cities.

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Meaningless anecdote, but in my mom’s Arlington neighborhood that typically skews very conservative and older, there are tons of Biden signs. Some trump flags as well, but the Biden signs now out number them by a 3-4:1 measure.

Edited by bonnieblue
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  On 10/22/2020 at 3:09 PM, Texaspython said:

The problem with Tarrant is twofold. Somehow, Repubs have managed to hold onto city guv in FW and Arlington. It’s really shocking because there are whole bunch of dem votes there but no one has been able to harness it. Surprisingly, most of the recent dem vote growth has been in the mid cities.

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Does Tarrant have local elections in odd years? Non-federal elections usually only bring out the more engaged voters. 

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  On 10/22/2020 at 3:21 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does Tarrant have local elections in odd years? Non-federal elections usually only bring out the more engaged voters. 

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Yes, one huge problem is the Tarrant DA is elected off the presidential cycle. I typically think that’s your number one county wide elected office and usually the tipping point for flipping a county. Makes it hard to get traction in Tarrant fir Dems.

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  On 10/22/2020 at 3:30 PM, yoladu said:

latest from Travis County after 9 days - halfway through the early voting period

total votes : 341, 511

% of registered voters who have voted : 40%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct21.pdf

9 more days of early voting to go

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  On 10/22/2020 at 3:30 PM, yoladu said:

latest from Travis County after 9 days - halfway through the early voting period

total votes : 341, 511

% of registered voters who have voted : 40%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct21.pdf

9 more days of early voting to go

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Historical Travis County

 

YEAR Reg Voters Voted Voted % Early Vote EV %
1988
325,384
236,084
72.56%
64,524
27.33%
1990
305,582
195,631
64.02%
65,797
33.63%
1992
352,737
276,031
78.25%
118,148
42.80%
1994
368,068
211,349
57.42%
97,166
45.97%
1996
459,115
246,301
53.65%
95,857
38.92%
1998
499,696
174,738
34.97%
54,287
31.07%
2000
572,429
301,263
52.63%
138,342
45.92%
2002
555,065
220,043
39.64%
101,566
46.16%
2004
584,949
352,113
60.20%
219,455
62.33%
2006
566,140
226,176
39.95%
98,874
43.72%
2008
611,367
397,714
65.05%
297,562
48.67%
2010
604,374
238,148
39.40%
132,765
21.97%
2012
632,962
385,081
60.84%
235,795
37.25%
2014
655,056
267,289
40.80%
143,789
21.95%
2016
725,035
462,593
63.8%
363,565
50.14%
2018 774,302 486,562 63% 349,045 45%

 

If trends continue, Travis should record highest early voting total ever after today. 

855,175 is total registered this year. Def might beat previous 63% voter record.

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