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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers


StassneyHorn

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3 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I recognize the difference between a presidential election and an interim but wouldn’t it be instructive to look at the Beto/Cruz race in 18 as a starting point.  That race clearly demonstrated a change after 2 years of Trump.  

I think so. Maybe Huck can do it, he has everything setup already to look at voting numbers so far.

I might put something together later this week or over the weekend and throw out my Texas projection. I'm not super comfortable trying it yet until I see what the full spectrum of early voting looks like.

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5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. But I’d argue it’s way more about the GOP side of the equation in both races. Candidates matter. Probably 5-10%?  Maybe?  

https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/oct2020-lv-codebook-dmn-uttyler-poll.pdf

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Hegar has only convinced 67% of a very motivated Democratic base to vote for her. Not only that, but Cornyn is a public nobody in the Senate and she had the opportunity to define him and has failed. Cornyn has only convinced 76% of Republicans and she is somehow underperforming that. And as you indicate, she has the advantage of the anti-Trump mood and is still blowing it.

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48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t think so. Midterms are about mood. Dems were mad. I’d always counsel against comparing a presidential to a midterm. 
My sense in 18 was Beto got more of his voters to the polls than the other side did bc he was really well liked by his base. 

Look at the breakdown in the other races. Republicans, or at least people who default to voting Republican, showed up. It wasn't a turnout problem for them. It was that folks crossed over and voted Beto. It is going to happen again. Texans don't like Trump. 

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9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Look at the breakdown in the other races. Republicans, or at least people who default to voting Republican, showed up. It wasn't a turnout problem for them. It was that folks crossed over and voted Beto. It is going to happen again. Texans don't like Trump. 

We are in agreement on that last sentence man. I like that about us as a state. Really if you there wasn’t any such thing as political parties I think Joe would win by 20 or 30. 

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20 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So can I take that to mean that through 2 weeks of early voting, we are about at the same pace as last election early voting which lasted 2 weeks?

that still makes me wonder if the extended EV will just rob votes from Election Day, rather than helping to add votes. Can’t know that until next Wednesday though. 

The extended week will return more votes simply because it provides more time for people to avoid the shitshow 11/3 is going to be.   You are going to see a lot of long lines, because older trumpkins are going to take their mail in ballot in and want to surrender it.   That takes a while.  It's been bad enough with centralized EV locations, but on ED, all those election judges have to call into the EA and get in line to cancel VBM ballots.   Most Dems will have already voted.  In the rural counties republicans see ED as a day long party.  It'll be a shitshow.

 

1 hour ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Don't know one thing MJ Hegar is about outside of she's not a girly girl and has kids. Cool

I'm not disputing this about MJ, but honestly what have you seen about anything from Cornyn in his time in office?

All 63 million knew about trump was he was a "fantastic businessman" and was from outside the beltway/swamp.    So exactly what is the difference here, other than it being a senate race, instead of the most powerful office in the world you are gambling your vote on?
 

 

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What is the background on the stat that 1.8m new Texan voters have shown up, who didn't vote in 2016?  Has someone taken the "Who voted" lists and comparing them?

Hopefully someone just isn't looking at 2016 and 2020 early voting #s, and claiming that the difference is only new voters. That seems too simplistic and discounts that many normal election day voters are opting to vote early in 2020.

Re: Cornyn and MJ. Agree that her campaign seems to be blowing it. Her strategy is "I'm not John and he supports Trump."  The one hope for MJ is that Cornyn is still below 50% in many likely voter polls. The anti-trump voter would still seem to be of hope for her given that she is the 2nd race on the ballot. 

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7 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

The extended week will return more votes simply because it provides more time for people to avoid the shitshow 11/3 is going to be.   You are going to see a lot of long lines, because older trumpkins are going to take their mail in ballot in and want to surrender it.   That takes a while.  It's been bad enough with centralized EV locations, but on ED, all those election judges have to call into the EA and get in line to cancel VBM ballots.   Most Dems will have already voted.  In the rural counties republicans see ED as a day long party.  It'll be a shitshow.

 

I'm not disputing this about MJ, but honestly what have you seen about anything from Cornyn in his time in office?

All 63 million knew about trump was he was a "fantastic businessman" and was from outside the beltway/swamp.    So exactly what is the difference here, other than it being a senate race, instead of the most powerful office in the world you are gambling your vote on?
 

 

The difference is Cornyn already has the office, and he has it in a state that instinctively votes for Cornyn’s party. He has all the advantages. Debating how fair that is would be a different conversation. But the fact of the matter them sucking equally doesn’t remove him from office. So yeah, she needs to be better than “also an empty suit.” 

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1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/oct2020-lv-codebook-dmn-uttyler-poll.pdf

image.png.a89f1aa164d022f5bf58515bfdb01b31.png

image.png.0d565f158b419a37038f904daeb7d22f.png

Hegar has only convinced 67% of a very motivated Democratic base to vote for her. Not only that, but Cornyn is a public nobody in the Senate and she had the opportunity to define him and has failed. Cornyn has only convinced 76% of Republicans and she is somehow underperforming that. And as you indicate, she has the advantage of the anti-Trump mood and is still blowing it.

Yeah, she's a horrible candidate. I voted for her, but the fact she can't cut the lead closer with historical ineptitude from the Republican party and Cornyn, speaks volumes to her message. 

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7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Yeah, she's a horrible candidate. I voted for her, but the fact she can't cut the lead closer with historical ineptitude from the Republican party and Cornyn, speaks volumes to her message. 

It's such an easy message to run with too. Go hard after Cornyn, call him a Trump sycophant pushover, talk about how he's trying to distance from Trump now after four years of sycophant behavior, just attack attack attack. That fits the badass motorcycle chick persona. But there's just nothing, no real message except "military and motorcycles omg". Disappointing.

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8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Yeah, she's a horrible candidate. I voted for her, but the fact she can't cut the lead closer with historical ineptitude from the Republican party and Cornyn, speaks volumes to her message. 

I havent watched many local political ads in my lifetime, but are they generally this bad?  I know when you don't have a political background its hard to run on your merits, but how does she/her team think that shot down by the taliban, purple heart, raising kids in a pandemic, and motorcycle riding are winning messages?  Just beat Cornyn over the head with his boot licking for trump and his support for repealing the ACA and dreamer stuff.  Seems like a no brainer.  

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1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

I RIDE A MOTORCYCLE isn't an effective strategy in your opinion?

Maybe it's just me, but because of the assholes who ride around at night on Harleys that you can hear all the way across town, I think less favorably of people who identify as motorcycle riders.

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Interesting 538 article about people who rarely or never vote: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/non-voters-poll-2020-election/

Here are the main reasons along with my reaction to it:

  • my vote doesn't count. Except in extremely rare circumstances, most of our individual votes don't swing an election but together they can change the outcome. People need to realize this.
  • too difficult to vote or I don't understand the process. Yep, sometimes you have to plan ahead. Understand what you need to do, and then find a way to make it work. 
  • belief that it doesn't matter who is in office.  Take some time to educate yourself on the issues and stances. Learn that the 30 seconds commercials don't tell you enough.

I understand there are individual situations where people cannot realistically vote. They can't get off work, they have four kids to care for and the line is 6 hours long. That should be criminal (work restriction or voting line) but planning ahead can actually prevent that. If anyone in Harris County shows up next Tuesday to vote but walks away when they see a line, f them. The county is bending over backwards to give you plenty of time to vote without a line so why would you wait?

There is also a general problem with society that a certain percent of people fail to think about anything other than what is happening today. Their life is completely reactionary. At best they decide Election Day morning to vote and then question how & where. It's no surprise they run into barriers to vote. My bet is that their life has frequent barriers about everything.

 

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Is it just me, or has Cornyn not changed at all in the last 30 years? He must have been one of those guys who looked 65 at 35. 

“I met this guy, tall, white hair, and he said, “Sir, I’m a U.S. Senator from Texas. Can I lick your balls and be completely subservient?’ He was straight from central casting!”

Add me to the crowd baffled by Hegar’s ridiculous ad campaign, glad to know I’m not the only one . I still voted for her. 

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Also worth pointing out the enormous (>25%) amount of undecided D voters in the Senate race. Even the numbers overall point to ~20ish% undecided on that race.

That's probably bad news for Hegar in the sense she's been practically invisible. So many people don't know who she is or what she stands for. Most of that is self-inflicted, but I have to wonder how much she got from the Senate D PAC. I'd imagine not much, given the importance of so many other races. I haven't paid attention to her fundraising, but with those numbers either her campaign is truly historically bad or she didn't have that much finding. Both can be true to differing degrees.

That said, I think she'll overperform her polling, but still lose. It's just hard to imagine many Texas Democrats splitting their ticket given the current political environment. It's also a good sign she seems to be running slightly ahead with Independents.

Overall this particular race feels like a case of "what ifs" for Texas Democrats. What if they'd had a better {candidate, message, campaign,}. I don't even think she's necessarily a bad candidate. Some of the consistent attacks levied by Republicans would be tough lands on her, especially with respect to rah-rah military patriotism. She's pretty moderate, which is what Texas needs right now if we expect to flip it.

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31 minutes ago, Vito Andolini said:

Is it just me, or has Cornyn not changed at all in the last 30 years? He must have been one of those guys who looked 65 at 35. 

“I met this guy, tall, white hair, and he said, “Sir, I’m a U.S. Senator from Texas. Can I lick your balls and be completely subservient?’ He was straight from central casting!”

Add me to the crowd baffled by Hegar’s ridiculous ad campaign, glad to know I’m not the only one . I still voted for her. 

same. I'll concede Texas if we win the White House and flip the senate. That's all we need right now.

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44 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

my vote doesn't count. Except in extremely rare circumstances, most of our individual votes don't swing an election but together they can change the outcome. People need to realize this.

i think we are taught this wrong in elementary school.  i remember the message being "you never know! check out this one vote that happened one time in some BFE that was decided by 1 vote" 

no, it is statistically impossible my vote will ever count in that regard. but if that was the standard for making me vote, it's not a democracy i'm looking for.  our system works because each of the ideas out there are represented in the ballot box in proportion to the popular adoption of the idea.  if you don't vote, you are throwing off that ratio.  

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1 hour ago, TXSG8R said:

I havent watched many local political ads in my lifetime, but are they generally this bad?  I know when you don't have a political background its hard to run on your merits, but how does she/her team think that shot down by the taliban, purple heart, raising kids in a pandemic, and motorcycle riding are winning messages?  Just beat Cornyn over the head with his boot licking for trump and his support for repealing the ACA and dreamer stuff.  Seems like a no brainer.  

To be honest, it might just be a likeability factor. She attacks Cornyn, she says all the right things, but some people just don't connect with some for whatever reason. 

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52 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

too difficult to vote or I don't understand the process. Yep, sometimes you have to plan ahead. Understand what you need to do, and then find a way to make it work. 

I voted by mail this year, and that process is much much easier than going to the polls, and I felt I cast a much more informed ballot than I would have going to the polls.  Of course, both of those things are complete anathemas to the Republican party, so as long as they run Texas, VBM isn't going to be widespread.

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7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

To be honest, it might just be a likeability factor. She attacks Cornyn, she says all the right things, but some people just don't connect with some for whatever reason. 

well, she's got a vagina, so that is working against her in a lot of minds. stupid fucking people

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25 minutes ago, Longhornmaniac8 said:

Also worth pointing out the enormous (>25%) amount of undecided D voters in the Senate race. Even the numbers overall point to ~20ish% undecided on that race.

That's probably bad news for Hegar in the sense she's been practically invisible. So many people don't know who she is or what she stands for. Most of that is self-inflicted, but I have to wonder how much she got from the Senate D PAC. I'd imagine not much, given the importance of so many other races. I haven't paid attention to her fundraising, but with those numbers either her campaign is truly historically bad or she didn't have that much finding. Both can be true to differing degrees.

That said, I think she'll overperform her polling, but still lose. It's just hard to imagine many Texas Democrats splitting their ticket given the current political environment. It's also a good sign she seems to be running slightly ahead with Independents.

Overall this particular race feels like a case of "what ifs" for Texas Democrats. What if they'd had a better {candidate, message, campaign,}. I don't even think she's necessarily a bad candidate. Some of the consistent attacks levied by Republicans would be tough lands on her, especially with respect to rah-rah military patriotism. She's pretty moderate, which is what Texas needs right now if we expect to flip it.

I think the problem for her isn't Dem's crossing over. They'll vote for her regardless. The problem is going to be Republicans not crossing over and independents defaulting to Republican when in doubt. I think she actually had a really good chance of flipping the seat, even if Trump were to win Texas. She has blown it.

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25 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i think we are taught this wrong in elementary school.  i remember the message being "you never know! check out this one vote that happened one time in some BFE that was decided by 1 vote" 

no, it is statistically impossible my vote will ever count in that regard. but if that was the standard for making me vote, it's not a democracy i'm looking for.  our system works because each of the ideas out there are represented in the ballot box in proportion to the popular adoption of the idea.  if you don't vote, you are throwing off that ratio.  

I think that last paragraph is wrong, and that’s based upon our system. If we had a coalition, parliamentary system that wasn’t first across the finish line that would be correct, but there isn’t the sense of my issue matters and I’m going to be represented to the proportion of people like me voting. Should we go to a more European system instead of first across the finish line and fuck everyone else?  I don’t know. It would make me a lot more likely to vote, along with probably some others who want to vote for something that reps their beliefs vs best of candidates I don’t like, but I’m agnostic as to if this would be a good idea or not. 

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Hegar's campaign manager is a longtime national Dem that ran Kay Hagan and Jon Tester's winning campaigns among other things. She's probably would've been better served by an actual Texan running things for her.

Amplifying tattoos, motorcycles, and the military for your candidate seems a bit archaic for our state these days. "She's Texas tough!"  The electorate is changing rapidly and her campaign is not with the times. Enough of this shit. 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Hegar's campaign manager is a longtime national Dem that ran Kay Hagan and Jon Tester's winning campaigns among other things. She's probably would've been better served by an actual Texan running things for her.

Amplifying tattoos, motorcycles, and the military for your candidate seems a bit archaic for our state these days. "She's Texas tough!"  The electorate is changing rapidly and her campaign is not with the times. Enough of this shit. 

 

 

 

 

The whole ad campaign should have been heres every single time John Cornyn voted to take away preexisting conditions on a 30 -60 second repeat loop. 

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28 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

well, she's got a vagina, so that is working against her in a lot of minds. stupid fucking people

Actually, being a She, mom, shot down, and rides a motorcycle is all I really know about her.  Her campaign fucking sucks.   It sucked from the beginning and still sucks now.  Giving her $20 million dollars will just make more suck unless she makes major changes.   I voted for her simply because she was not corona shot glass dipshit, and I am anti-Republican

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27 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

To be honest, it might just be a likeability factor. She attacks Cornyn, she says all the right things, but some people just don't connect with some for whatever reason. 

It’s not a likability thing, at least not to me.  It’s just a weird way to reach out to Texans (but then again, I’m not a Texan).  Riding the veteran angle makes sense, but she’s milking it too hard IMO. Contrast yourself with Cornyn by saying I’m a Purple Heart winning vet, he’s not. I know what decisions about defense spending, going to war, etc really mean by experience, he’s a politician, that kind of thing. 


Maybe I’m underestimating the motorcycle approving voter bloc.  I don’t get why she’s on one in almost every ad. 

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12 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

The whole ad campaign should have been heres every single time John Cornyn voted to take away preexisting conditions on a 30 -60 second repeat loop. 

That, the shot glass corona and his talk about corona virus not harming kids.

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12 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

The whole ad campaign should have been heres every single time John Cornyn voted to take away preexisting conditions on a 30 -60 second repeat loop. 

Yeah, it shouldn't be hard to make Cornyn look like the empty-suit take-away-your-healthcare bootlicker that he is.

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

What is the background on the stat that 1.8m new Texan voters have shown up, who didn't vote in 2016?  Has someone taken the "Who voted" lists and comparing them?

Hopefully someone just isn't looking at 2016 and 2020 early voting #s, and claiming that the difference is only new voters. That seems too simplistic and discounts that many normal election day voters are opting to vote early in 2020.

Re: Cornyn and MJ. Agree that her campaign seems to be blowing it. Her strategy is "I'm not John and he supports Trump."  The one hope for MJ is that Cornyn is still below 50% in many likely voter polls. The anti-trump voter would still seem to be of hope for her given that she is the 2nd race on the ballot. 

I think they can split the votes into first time Texas voters and voted in Texas before. They can also tell which primary people voted in.  That is about the extent of it.  Are those first time Texas voters people that previously voted in Kansas or California or just turned 18, recently naturalized, or 65 and never voted before?  Who knows.  They just never voted in Texas before.

Agree, I think the only hope Hegar has is the I don't know who Cornyn is but he has an  R and Hegar has a D and I'm voting against the R crowd.

 

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26 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

It’s not a likability thing, at least not to me.  It’s just a weird way to reach out to Texans (but then again, I’m not a Texan).  Riding the veteran angle makes sense, but she’s milking it too hard IMO. Contrast yourself with Cornyn by saying I’m a Purple Heart winning vet, he’s not. I know what decisions about defense spending, going to war, etc really mean by experience, he’s a politician, that kind of thing. 


Maybe I’m underestimating the motorcycle approving voter bloc.  I don’t get why she’s on one in almost every ad. 

I'm guessing she focus grouped that for her Tx31 run, and it did well, but she's not trying to convince the vets around Ft Hood anymore, she's trying to convince the whole state and it's obviously not as important statewide. 

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6 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

I think they can split the votes into first time Texas voters and voted in Texas before. They can also tell which primary people voted in.  That is about the extent of it.  Are those first time Texas voters people that previously voted in Kansas or California or just turned 18, recently naturalized, or 65 and never voted before?  Who knows.  They just never voted in Texas before.

Agree, I think the only hope Hegar has is the I don't know who Cornyn is but he has an  R and Hegar has a D and I'm voting against the R crowd.

 

well, that's as much as the electorate in Texas has ever done for an R candidate, so I guess it goes both ways.

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18 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I'm guessing she focus grouped that for her Tx31 run, and it did well, but she's not trying to convince the vets around Ft Hood anymore, she's trying to convince the whole state and it's obviously not as important statewide. 

This is probably correct. No one wants to elect Guy Fieri

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2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

It's such an easy message to run with too. Go hard after Cornyn, call him a Trump sycophant pushover, talk about how he's trying to distance from Trump now after four years of sycophant behavior, just attack attack attack. That fits the badass motorcycle chick persona. But there's just nothing, no real message except "military and motorcycles omg". Disappointing.

She took that tack in this rant on Friday, which was pretty good I thought.  She needs to get it out via more than Twitter though. 

 

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29 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

I think they can split the votes into first time Texas voters and voted in Texas before. They can also tell which primary people voted in.  That is about the extent of it.  Are those first time Texas voters people that previously voted in Kansas or California or just turned 18, recently naturalized, or 65 and never voted before?  Who knows.  They just never voted in Texas before.

Agree, I think the only hope Hegar has is the I don't know who Cornyn is but he has an  R and Hegar has a D and I'm voting against the R crowd.

 

Who is they? Was this a reporting group like Texas tribune? Or some rando on Twitter?

I’m asking you directly to answer but it seems like someone came up with this # and it’s now listed as the truth. 

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1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Hegar's campaign manager is a longtime national Dem that ran Kay Hagan and Jon Tester's winning campaigns among other things. She's probably would've been better served by an actual Texan running things for her.

Amplifying tattoos, motorcycles, and the military for your candidate seems a bit archaic for our state these days. "She's Texas tough!"  The electorate is changing rapidly and her campaign is not with the times. Enough of this shit.   fucking sucks. 

 

 

 

Helped tidy this up a bit. 

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9 minutes ago, South Austin said:

With Hegar's underwhelming campaign, all Cornyn really needed to do was say, "Hey, I'm not Ted Cruz."

The sad part is, he is actually worse in some ways. Cruz at least votes against unlimited government surveillance while Cornyn thinks its awesome.

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