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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17449

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Lobo said:

No, I get that we have more days to go, but I also see some polling place numbers starting to markedly decline as the message now shifts to "And Election Day turnout will be lower, but mostly Republican."  We matched the numbers in most states yesterday, but with just 2-3 days left to go until Election Day, I think the uptick will be significant, but not game-changing.  If this pace were to sustain or even pick up a bit as people around Texas think "Oh shit, there's only two more days to early vote---we gotta get out there!"...then I could see our state being in play even with a mini-surge of olds on Election Day.  But us, and a few key swing states, hit an important benchmark at some point late Monday to mid Tuesday.  And that's great, but we're just tacking on a couple of extra days now with lower turnout numbers...and then the wild card is this mini-GOP bumrush coming on Tuesday.  

I dunno, I'm just being extremely cautious about this election again.  I think most of us kinda have roller coaster fatigue at this point.   We get really high up and excited and then something happens and we go into a lull.  I'm that valley again of pessimism about this election.   

If the pattern holds from previous elections, we should expect today to be flat or slightly down in terms of turnout. If we see jumps tomorrow and Friday to back over 3% then you can start thinking about game changing turnout. 

FYI, Harris County's late hours yesterday only resulted in about 1,000 votes per additional hour.  

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Bruh Man
Bruh Man

The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

Aqua Buddha
Aqua Buddha

Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Cross posting because, relevant to topic:

 

If the Trump campaign believes this as well, they're in a tough position. Do you shift small resources or a quick Pence visit to hopefully shore up a Texas victory, or do you risk ignoring Texas? I assume there is effectively 0 paths to victory if Trump loses Texas.

Personally I'm still in the camp that Texas will go to Trump but has a likelihood that the % margin of victory could be among the closest.

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The Dog

The Dog 43811

Posted
Posted
Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If the Trump campaign believes this as well, they're in a tough position. Do you shift small resources or a quick Pence visit to hopefully shore up a Texas victory, or do you risk ignoring Texas? I assume there is effectively 0 paths to victory if Trump loses Texas.

Personally I'm still in the camp that Texas will go to Trump but has a likelihood that the % margin of victory could be among the closest.

Trump's campaign is broke. They can't do anything about Biden taking a swing in Texas.

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yoladu

yoladu 4067

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I imagine both sides are working hard to get people to show up at the polls but like you said maybe the republicans are finding fewer and fewer people to motivate.

the weather turned kind of shitty too.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, yoladu said:

the weather turned kind of shitty too.

Even shittier up in West Texas where the trump voter lair is.  If you subscribe to the notion that they are turning out in EV they might be even more suppressed. But if the weather gets better soon it should just push more votes to later and not outright suppress any. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17449

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

This almost seems impossible. Travis County was at 470,535 after closing yesterday. This would mean it has had 16,000 votes today already. That is a crazy pace considering that at 10:22 am it only had 3,000 votes. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15493

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Update: Based on new vote totals, IF current votes are Biden +7 then Trump would need 3,364,483 more voters to vote breaking at +17 for him. That would mean a total of 11,535,371 Texas voters and 68% turnout.

That was Biden +7 of those who had voted as of last Friday.  The poll stated that those who were likely voters this week and on Election day broke +17 to Trump.

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Still think Trump wins Texas.  But it’s close enough that something dramatic on Election Day (like a brutal winter storm) could be the difference.  Dems should be praying for extremely low Election Day turnout because they are very likely winning on early voting.  Still think it’ll be Trump +3.  Hope I’m wrong.

I have kind of the opposite take.  I think Trump is going to get his voters on Election Day.  That's his extremely motivated group who believes that early voting is communistic and un-American.  Those fools are going to vote.

We need to have, in addition to those people, a bunch of Democratic voters who have been contacted by Biden's GOTV effort or down in the RGV and have been persuaded to vote because of the new attention being showered on the area or whatever.  Those are very marginal voters who can be dissuaded by a winter storm or other circumstance.  We need a nice sunny day and the pathway to the polling place covered in rose petals.

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South Austin

South Austin 52154

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30 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

This almost seems impossible. Travis County was at 470,535 after closing yesterday. This would mean it has had 16,000 votes today already. That is a crazy pace considering that at 10:22 am it only had 3,000 votes. 

I've already voted at least 5 times today, so anything's possible.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

Serious question—-with a broke Trump campaign, what stops them from getting a massive ad push on Sinclair stations for $1/each?   I get the equal time doctrine but what is the law around what a station can charge a campaign to let them put out ads in networks or internet or cable?  What stops Them From saying the FMV for 30 seconds for these particular slots in Austin at 4pm and 9pm are now $5 ?

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47889

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

These pieces of shit. Every instance of this shit needs to be collected, put into a binder, given a narrative and given out for free in every fucking poor and disenfranchised area of Houston. And then more dumped in all the red areas, maybe some people will feel some fucking shame. 

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immamac

immamac 42527

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

These pieces of shit. Every instance of this shit needs to be collected, put into a binder, given a narrative and given out for free in every fucking poor and disenfranchised area of Houston. And then more dumped in all the red areas, maybe some people will feel some fucking shame. 

America is not a Democracy bro.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89452

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, immamac said:

I mean is there any chance for trump if 11.5M people vote instead of 9?

I don't see how it hits that high, but either way, Trump seems to have a pretty solid cap on the number of new voters he can pull in, with a huge chunk of those voting in 2016.  I just don't run into people, including my relatives in other states (notably Arky and Okie) who didn't vote for him 2016, all of the sudden deciding he's what they need in their lives in 2020.

 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

This could be put in the Biden v Trump thread, the Republican Party thread, and the Voter Suppression thread as well. It's going to be repeated ad nauseum throughout the Nation for the next two weeks until the GOP believes they have enough electoral votes to declare Trump the winner. They will try and chip away at anything they can. Plus, that bit about the votes having to be in by a certain date? That's only going to apply to Biden/Democratic votes. Wisconsin is leaning Biden, and IMO means that the Democratic party apparatus should never ever forget the two-timing GOP in that state will do whatever it takes to win.

 

Adding: If Brian Kemp can declare himself the SoS of Georgia and purge and suppress the vote, get caught on tape expressing concern about turnout support for Stacey Abrams and not bat an eye about the conflict of interest, then I expect plenty of others involved in official capacities to turn a blind eye to aid and abet the Trump campaign. There is still no quorum for the Federal Election Commission.

Edited by Mrs Whiggins
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gyroprotagonist

gyroprotagonist 2591

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

That a guy headed to a maga rally was willing to have a calm, thoughtful conversation about his beliefs and when he was forced to question them he calmly considered his misconceptions and politely left. 
 

I believe the more realistic scenario was about halfway through that conversation he got angry, searches around for a folding chair, and beat the candidate like his favorite WWE star would have done. 

this reeks of the texaggy posts about helping visiting fans find the stadium and giving up their 50 yard line seats so the out of towners could appreciate the 'spirit of aggyland'

I swear there was another tweet from him about the same type of thing on courtpacking about 2 weeks ago

maybe it happened, maybe not

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Add a dj and you have a party in there. which may be needed to keep the energy level up at 3am.

 

12 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

add some hot bitches on roller skates and I might go vote again. 

This sounds like a fucking scene!  Party at the polls, bitches. I’ll see you fuckers out there for the all-skate. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, royiv said:

Am I the only one who very quickly scrolls through every one of @Wulaw Horn's posts on the political threads? How is anyone interested in his mental masturbation while he acts pious for being some sort of conscientious objector? Take a stand and vote. If you don't vote in an election, you're a coward plain and simple. Take a stand. Standing on the sidelines isn't a stand.

I put him on ignore about a week ago. This board is so much better without having to read through tons of posts with him pontificating while (1) not having any actual knowledge and (2) not doing anything to stand for what he believes in, including even voting.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32704

Posted
Posted (edited)

The 4 counties (out of the top 15) that have already reported today's totals had 63,524 in person votes yesterday and 64,445 today. Tarrant, Collin, Hidalgo, and Williamson.

Well Collin and Hidalgo have already updated their reports on their county sites. Tarrant and Williamson are pulled from their livevoterturnout.com pages.

Edited by Huckleberry
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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The 4 counties (out of the top 15) that have already reported today's totals had 63,524 in person votes yesterday and 64,445 today. Tarrant, Collin, Hidalgo, and Williamson.

Well Collin and Hidalgo have already updated their reports on their county sites. Tarrant and Williamson are pulled from their livevoterturnout.com pages.

Great, that means the total will be close to 8.6 million with 2 days to go in early voting. Assuming a small bump the last two days, 9.5+ million early votes looks fairly certain. 

I also calculated that as of yesterday 50.31% had turned out in the biggest 11 counties while 45.40 have turned out in the rest, for a nearly 11% advantage in the biggest urban/suburban areas that voted nearly 60/40 for Beto.

It was a 10% advantage a couple days ago so the big counties are still stretching out their early lead. 

Edited by RayDog
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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think that many trump voters, especially in Texas, don’t want the attention. It takes a special kind of person to put a Trump sign in their yard. 

Trump signs are so 2016. Now, it's all about the 15ft flag.

I'm not under the impression that this is now a Biden stronghold, but it's nice to see Texans not afraid to rep the blue team. I felt like that was a bit taboo in years past. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Boom

 

At this rate Travis will have over 550k by Friday which is 64% turnout. In 2018 Travis had 14% turnout on election day, so I imagine Travis counties final turnout will be in the 75-80% range. That should give Biden a net 350,000 votes in Travis alone. 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

Posted
Posted

Wow. This is great to see. I would like to see this in every election. It’s been a fight to have polls, not have polls closed, to get mail and absentee ballots processed. To keep voter rolls robust and accurate. To have times available to suit many schedules and keep poll workers and voters safe. But I hope Americans keep on fighting and keep on fighting. 

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