2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[CTC2 2745]

1 hour ago, Bruh Man said:

Man I see a lot of Biden signs in Plano. Here is my neighborhood in W. Plano. It's probably 90% white/asian. 

 

Between the music and the christmas tree air freshener I expected this to end with a SWAT team surrounding the car.

[MissingInAction 24825]

9 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

If these cunts pull this fuckery off I will probably die performing a futile and pointless action.

[NIUHuskies 504]

21 minutes ago, RayDog said:

What we need is on-line voting. The main arguments I hear against it are basically that it is more difficult to suppress the vote.

Hell, I filled out my census and filed taxes online. Why not?

[NIUHuskies 504]

21 minutes ago, RayDog said:

What we need is on-line voting. The main arguments I hear against it are basically that it is more difficult to suppress the vote.

Hell, I filled out my census and filed taxes online. Why not?

[Huckleberry 32704]

Just now, NIUHuskies said:

Hell, I filled out my census and filed taxes online. Why not?

 

Just now, NIUHuskies said:

Hell, I filled out my census and filed taxes online. Why not?

Because you would double vote, obviously. 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[Dahobbs 17449]

2 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Bexar County has really turned it on since lagging in the beginning. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

I heard arguments back in the day regarding online voting is that you should be careful about making voting disproportionately easy. Consider who has easy access to the polls with that change and who still has to work hard. I think there is a little merit to that, although it feels a little kindergartener attitude -- if you don't have enough snacks for everyone, no one can have one.

Maybe that argument is outdated because of the ubiquity of internet, but maybe not. 

[Huckleberry 32704]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Bexar County has really turned it on since lagging in the beginning. 

Tarrant as well, they are the top turnout of the 4 largest counties after being last among those 4 the first week.

[RayDog 682]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I heard arguments back in the day regarding online voting is that you should be careful about making voting disproportionately easy. Consider who has easy access to the polls with that change and who still has to work hard. I think there is a little merit to that, although it feels a little kindergartener attitude -- if you don't have enough snacks for everyone, no one can have one.

Maybe that argument is outdated because of the ubiquity of internet, but maybe not. 

That is a long way to say we need voter suppression.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33844]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I heard arguments back in the day regarding online voting is that you should be careful about making voting disproportionately easy. Consider who has easy access to the polls with that change and who still has to work hard. I think there is a little merit to that, although it feels a little kindergartener attitude -- if you don't have enough snacks for everyone, no one can have one.

Maybe that argument is outdated because of the ubiquity of internet, but maybe not. 

It is. I've stated many times with the money this country has there's no reason it's not an option, and a safe one at that. 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

7 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

It is. I've stated many times with the money this country has there's no reason it's not an option, and a safe one at that. 

I trust my banking, credit cards, stock market trades, social security, medical,  state and federal taxes, property taxes, and employment records online, but I won't trust voting online!

[Huckleberry 32704]

Nightly preview/estimate:

[Huckleberry 32704]

Based on the pattern to date the overall Texas vote total should be somewhere around 8.6 million votes in tomorrow's update through today's votes.

At some point tomorrow Texas will pass the 2016 election vote total with the final day of early voting and Election Day both still to come.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Huckleberry

[yoladu 4067]

latest from Travis County - early voting totals after 16 days

total votes :494,704

% of registered voters who have voted : 57.85%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct28.pdf

2 more days of early voting to go. Let's hope there is a 2 day surge! Can we get to 65% voted before the actual election day?

 

[Rimbo 25786]

52 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

It is. I've stated many times with the money this country has there's no reason it's not an option, and a safe one at that. 

I'll tell you why not:

There is absolutely no way technically to guarantee that the vote you make will remain as-is when the vote gets counted.

Even if you used something verifiable and anonymous (eg blockchain), it's too easy to make the actual voting software lie, and to do so undetectably. This is true for ANY kind of electronic voting. And remember that those who would muck with these things - political parties, foreign governments, etc - are well-funded and extremely motivated to do so. And every method that guarantees things work right cannot be anonymous.

The problem is unsolvable. There's literally no way to solve it technically. It'swhy us computer science types have opposed all forms of electronic voting.

So yes, there are VERY GOOD reasons not to.

[Helobious 9481]

Expect a huge TX turnout on Election Day. Weather looks to be picture perfect across much of the state. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Nightly preview/estimate:

I have a few questions. For you or anyone else in this thread.

1) what time was Texas called on CNN in 2016? How much longer do you think it will take this time?
 

2) I know it depends on the election year, but what color are each of these major counties?
 

of the top of my head :

harris, Dallas, bexar, El Paso, Travis, and fort bend will be blue for sure.

i hope tarrant will be blue and Collin / Denton are so close that trump doesn’t net any votes.

fully expect Montgomery, Galveston, and Brazoria to be red, but I’m sure someone else could break it down better than me.

[RayDog 682]

22 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Expect a huge TX turnout on Election Day. Weather looks to be picture perfect across much of the state. 

How huge? If 20% Show up on election day that would lead to close  to 13 million total. 15% would lead to 12 million. 

[DanTheHorn 4902]

Here as a reference as we get close to surpassing 2016 numbers.

[elfenix 34174]

7 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

1) what time was Texas called on CNN in 2016? How much longer do you think it will take this time?

probably before the polls were closed across the state because everyone forgets that el paso is in mountain. 

[elfenix 34174]

5 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Here as a reference as we get close to surpassing 2016 numbers.

gerrymander could break this election.  tarrant, collin, hays, wilco, and maybe denton county going blue would wreck some congressional districts that were carefully set up back in 2011. 

[RayDog 682]

I redid my estimates of the margins in the 11 biggest counties using an estimated total turnout of 20% above the current turnout and the percentage for Biden 2-3% above Beto's percentage in keeping with baseline demographic trends. The Net gain using this conservative measure is 1,740, 361. Beto had a lead of 945K in these counties when he lost by 214k. The extra 800k is more than enough to give Biden the victory and possibly even MJ.

Harris    71%    60%    1056304    668993    387,311
Dallas    70%    68%    664748    293271    371,477
Travis    77%    77%    504399    137,563    366,836
Bexar    70%    62%    512995    297868    215,127
El Paso    59%    76%    218674    63300    155,374
Hidalgo    62%    71%    172241    65500    106,741
Fort Bend    80%    58%    223390    154062    69,328
Tarrant    73%    52%    455442    402891    52,551
Williamson    82%    53%    163195    138562    24,633
Collin    82%    49%    259310    259310    0
Denton    80%    48%    216419    225436    -9,017
                    

I think the actual turnout could be a couple points higher in each county and the swing towards democrats could be higher, particularly in Tarrant, Williamson, Collin, and Denton. 

[SydneyCarton 47889]

5 hours ago, elfenix said:

gerrymander could break this election.  tarrant, collin, hays, wilco, and maybe denton county going blue would wreck some congressional districts that were carefully set up back in 2011. 

Luckily for republicans they get to redraw things again this year...

[Zonahorn 8079]

On 10/27/2020 at 12:57 PM, Ghost of LL said:

No.  Biden actually doesn't need anybody who voted for Trump in 2016 or Cruz in 2018 to vote for him.

Huckleberry's map is premised on every county voting the same as they did in 2018.  That means, for example, Harris County goes for Biden 58%-41.3%.  But here's the thing--in 2018, Harris County only cast roughly 1.2M votes.  Harris County is going to exceed that by the end of the day today.

So all those additional voters--who do you think they're voting for?  If you think they're voting in the exact same proportion as the people who actually did vote in 2018, then Huckleberry's model works swimmingly.  But if you think there's going to be some difference--and I can 100% guarantee you that there will be some difference--then the model doesn't work.

The trick is predicting who the difference will benefit.  And therein lies the difficulty.

I don't need you to guess.  According to the NYT/Siena Texas poll from earlier this week, Biden has a 7-point lead among people who have already voted (as of last Friday).

Here's the wild thing--Trump has a 17-point lead among the likely voters who have not yet voted, including a 29-point lead among those who say they are almost certain to vote.

So here's the fun thing to be gleaned from that--Biden probably has a big advantage among people who are "likely voters," but who tell the pollster that they are not "almost certain to vote."  That means that there are a whole bunch of people who Biden can still target and turnout.  It's why it's helpful to his campaign for you to have already voted--now you're out of that group and the campaign doesn't have to waste any resources getting you to the polls.

Karl Rove is the dumb motherfucker who didn't believe it in 2012 when Fox News called Ohio for Obama.  He doesn't know shit.

One of the all time John Stewart clips

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/bxtuzh/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-post-democalypse-2012---america-takes-a-shower---karl-rove-s-math

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

You can practically feel the gop hatred towards Abbott for extending early voting. He easily could have said that 2 weeks was plenty of time for Texans to find time to go the polls safely. Instead he may have found another .5 - 1m democrats voters out there.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

8 hours ago, RayDog said:

That is a long way to say we need voter suppression.

I think there is something there.  If it was phrased as “I think everyone above median income should have a polling location in their hand, everyone below should have to travel 3 miles” it sounds weird but that would be not too far from the practical application of it.  Once those percents get into the 90s maybe it is palatable.  

[SquishMitten 10401]

Probably mentioned, but another big thing to consider about the likely swing to Trump on Election Day is that they have a much harder GOTV task. As soon as I voted, I went from 5-6 campaign texts/day to maybe one every other day. That means the job for the D volunteers is getting significantly easier every day. Trump's people have a far bigger mailing list to try to engage with. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You can practically feel the gop hatred towards Abbott for extending early voting. He easily could have said that 2 weeks was plenty of time for Texans to find time to go the polls safely. Instead he may have found another .5 - 1m democrats voters out there.

It’s crazy that a state as big as Texas doesn’t have 4 weeks of early voting.

 

[The Dog 43809]

Beto O’Rourke Has Some Final Advice for the Biden Campaign

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

I liked his pitch here

“To have Joe Biden come here and say, ‘You have my back and have turned out in record numbers and now I have your back. I know you had to wait eight hours to vote in Fort Bend County and you didn’t have to do that. I know they are shutting down the absentee drops off locations. I know they are trying to stop you from voting and I have your back in this!’ He’s talking about a fight for the soul of the country. This is a fight for the future of democracy."

 

but, the later points in the article do have some standing with me. As much as I'd love for him to come, it is a risk if Texas goes as expected. Take that risk? Maybe? I don't know and thank the lord I'm not the one who has to decide.

[Dahobbs 17449]

 

Slow start for Harris County this morning. No evidence of the past Thursday and Friday jump yet. 

[The Royal We 3066]

1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

Probably mentioned, but another big thing to consider about the likely swing to Trump on Election Day is that they have a much harder GOTV task. As soon as I voted, I went from 5-6 campaign texts/day to maybe one every other day. That means the job for the D volunteers is getting significantly easier every day. Trump's people have a far bigger mailing list to try to engage with. 

I definitely have experienced the same thing and never would have had this perspective unless it was pointed out here.  I was getting at least 5 or 6 every day during the first week of early voting, since voting I think I've seen 1 text from Hank Gilbert's campaign and that's it.

[The Dog 43809]

Yup. Once you vote the phone calls stop.

[thepop 4409]

14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

Slow start for Harris County this morning. No evidence of the past Thursday and Friday jump yet. 

Travis county is all green (no wait time) right now too. I guess the "jump" won't be as large as previous years, which would mean no 11 million turnout

[Dahobbs 17449]

Harris County Clerk retweeted this:

 

I love it, but it is definitely going to piss off the aggies in Houston. So, again, I love it. 

[texastough 1129]

Its cold and windy af all over TX, maybe that helps explain the slow morning

[Longhorn_Fan68 33844]

holy shit this wind. 

[DanTheHorn 4902]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Beto O’Rourke Has Some Final Advice for the Biden Campaign

So far every time I see that guy he is everywhere but El Paso. He needs to go spend some time there and get out the vote since they are lagging so far behind (38.64%). May be to late at this point with the covid spike but like Biden says Common Beto!

 

P.S. Fuck Beto, Biden needs to secure Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Beto proved to be a bitch during the presidential primary and he is showing his colors again. Hillary wasted her time chasing unicorns last time too.

Edited October 29, 2020 by DanTheHorn

[Neonmoon 38127]

12 hours ago, yoladu said:

latest from Travis County - early voting totals after 16 days

total votes :494,704

% of registered voters who have voted : 57.85%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct28.pdf

2 more days of early voting to go. Let's hope there is a 2 day surge! Can we get to 65% voted before the actual election day?

 

65% would be 555,863. If 494,704 have already voted, that would mean 61,159 would have to in two days. 30K the next two days? That will be highly unlikely. I'm guessing two more days of 19-22. Maybe 40K more votes. Around 534,000 for 62% before the election.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Huckleberry 32704]

Final update for Wednesday. State site has some lagging counties and some garbage data (Travis and Montgomery are both way off), so this is my best effort to track down correct data:

Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,352,813 (50.5%)
Biden - 4,195,641 (48.7%)
Third Party - 67,723 (0.8%)
 

Keep in mind on that last part that the rural counties typically lag behind in reporting their totals so it will tighten up a bit throughout the day. However, the trend is still creeping toward Democratic county turnout.

[Huckleberry 32704]

This next data may not mean anything, but it's interesting to me. Conventional wisdom is that because of Trump's rhetoric mail ballots will be heavily tilted toward Democrats. However, in Texas so far they are heavily tilted toward rural counties which would run against that belief. Now it's certainly possible that rural Democrats (in whatever small number they exist) are causing this trend, but here are the top 20 Texas counties in voter turnout percentage by mail only so far, along with their population rank out of the 254 Texas counties:

1. POLK, #54
2. JIM HOGG, #193
3. DUVAL, #148
4. TERRELL, #249
5. GILLESPIE, #90
6. BRISCOE, #241
7. MENARD, #235
8. COKE, #214
9. KERR, #58
10. BASTROP, #47
11. FRIO, #142
12. CONCHO, #228
13. LIPSCOMB, #223
14. DICKENS, #237
15. BREWSTER, #162
16. SWISHER, #190
17. VICTORIA, #43
18. ARANSAS, #96
19. FAYETTE, #101
20. HAYS, #19

This surprised me a bit as I anticipated metropolitan counties to be more represented here because of higher Democratic density as well as a more reasonable fear of poll locations being crowded.

Here are the 15 most populous counties:

32. TRAVIS, #5
35. BEXAR, #4
45. HARRIS, #1
49. WILLIAMSON, #11
66. MONTGOMERY, #12
90. GALVESTON, #13
101. FORT BEND, #9
114. EL PASO, #8
122. TARRANT, #3
146. DENTON, #7
148. DALLAS, #2
155. BRAZORIA, #14
172. CAMERON, #15
174. COLLIN, #6
184. HIDALGO, #10
 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Dahobbs 17449]

 

 

 

[Homercles 10205]

Add 1 to Wilco, fuck removing straight ticket...took my sweet time during vote entry and the summary page to triple check they were all Democrat.  Was in/out in 15 minutes.  Young looking dude came in, they asked if he was a first timer, confirmed and applause broke out.  Good stuff.  

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, texastough said:

Its cold and windy af all over TX, maybe that helps explain the slow morning

Yes, but you see it's a Mighty Wind.  A 'Wind of Change'...if you will.  

Look guys, I get voter suppression.  If Trump wins this state by the usual margin, I can live with that.  But if he wins it by 10,000 votes because some of you "indoorsy" types couldn't be bothered to vote due to high winds today, I'm gonna lose my shit more than it's already lost.  My mother is voting today in Chicago, where it's 30 degrees with 30mph winds.  She's 74 and a two-time cancer survivor.  

Let's get out there and do this.  I'm texting dozens of friends who I know haven't voted yet to get their asses out there.  I'm not gonna have my children read an underground history book about that the fuck happened to the Lone Star State because some northerly winds set in on what was otherwise a nice, sunny day.  

All fucking Trumps must fucking pay.  

Edited October 29, 2020 by Lobo

[Disco Strangler 1865]

1 hour ago, DanTheHorn said:

So far every time I see that guy he is everywhere but El Paso. He needs to go spend some time there and get out the vote since they are lagging so far behind (38.64%). May be to late at this point with the covid spike but like Biden says Common Beto!

 

P.S. Fuck Beto, Biden needs to secure Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Beto proved to be a bitch during the presidential primary and he is showing his colors again. Hillary wasted her time chasing unicorns last time too.

Beto has been putting in the work.  His Powered by People made 400,000 calls yesterday.  He will match that feat again today.  The guy has worked himself into a frenzy to put Biden in office and turn Texas blue, so I don't blame the guy who is so single-mindedly focused on the roadway in Texas to not see the view from 30,000 feet.  

[SydneyCarton 47889]

9 minutes ago, Disco Strangler said:

Beto has been putting in the work.  His Powered by People made 400,000 calls yesterday.  He will match that feat again today.  The guy has worked himself into a frenzy to put Biden in office and turn Texas blue, so I don't blame the guy who is so single-mindedly focused on the roadway in Texas to not see the view from 30,000 feet.  

He's certainly earned a position in the administration if that's what he wants to do, IMO. But maybe he wants to stay in Texas. 

[Pancho 44491]

A friend and I were talking the other day about if Beto had fucked himself and can't run for gov. 

Friend seems to think he hasn't and he should.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Texas has too many counties to easily analyze. I categorized them based on a Texas Dept of Health definition (see map.)  I calculated enthusiasm as difference between the 2016 Turnout percentage and 2020 early vote turnout, from Huck's data.  I added the region's Trump's 2016 win % as reference.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33844]

6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

A friend and I were talking the other day about if Beto had fucked himself and can't run for gov. 

Friend seems to think he hasn't and he should.  

how would he have fucked himself? he may be the most well-known politician in this state, and most of those people like him