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Posted
  On 10/29/2020 at 9:17 PM, berlinerbaer said:

Low hanging fruit if Biden is elected, in this order:

1. Covid stimulus

2. HR-1 / new voting rights act

3. Universal background checks + red flag law

Just those three and a bunch of executive orders to shore up the existing ACA, take the kids out of cages, effectively staff all agencies and departments, and reimpose Obama-level oversight and regulations and the Dems will expand their share of the House and Senate in 2022.

Having said that, watch them all fuck around for 18 months with a new health care bill, or the Green New Deal, and I say that as someone who wants those things.

 

 

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How about a cyber attack on Russia on 1/22/21, the likes of which Putin has never seen?

Posted

Thanks everyone. Sleeping is difficult. In lieu of sleep, I present a gift:

 

Harris was at 50,000 at 6. So it got the additional ~17,000 votes needed over 4 hours. That's a pretty robust 4,000+ votes an hour during late voting. 

Let's see if it can surpass 70k before midnight. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Not sure if I'm staying up for the Harris County midnight number but will obviously update late tonight or in the morning.

Nightly preview/estimate (And yes, I know Harris County has already passed that number below):

image.png.88d5652f406137bf920b3b45d2d70bc0.png

image.thumb.png.c8014bdd3ce73da5867607dd40cb739d.png

Posted
  On 10/30/2020 at 4:32 AM, RayDog said:

With 71% turnout it would be 387k or greater. A 400k advantage for Biden in Harris would not surprise me. 

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Yep, which essentially is +250k in Harris County alone compared to 2016. 

Still think the red counties that went 80/20 Trump in 2016 will be the tipping point. If those splits stay the same, Trump probably holds on. If it gets down to 70/30 or 65/35, that's how Biden wins. 

 

Posted

It's going to be difficult for the El Paso residents to get out and vote, but I do hope that some can mask up and give it a try today or Tuesday. They have been hurt in so many ways under Trump.

Posted (edited)
  On 10/30/2020 at 4:24 AM, TexEx15 said:

 

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FYI Cruz beat O'Rourke by about ~215k statewide, so a 125k difference from Harris alone makes this race interesting.

I think Trump holds on and wins Texas but just barely. El Paso being on lockdown will be the difference as well as rural and West Texas coming out in force. Democrats should do very well down ballot, however (other than MJ). 

Edit - and here's a great tool from Politico if you want to look at county by county election results from 2018: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/

 

Edited by The Dog
Posted
  On 10/30/2020 at 2:26 PM, The Dog said:

FYI Cruz beat O'Rourke by about ~215k statewide, so a 125k difference from Harris alone makes this race interesting.

I think Trump holds on and wins Texas but just barely. El Paso being on lockdown will be the difference as well as rural and West Texas coming out in force. Democrats should do very well down ballot, however (other than MJ). 

Edit - and here's a great tool from Politico if you want to look at county by county election results from 2018: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/

 

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In fairness--ELP never turns out for anything.  El Paso will still pass its total vote from 2016 (214,000) at some point today.

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Posted
  On 10/30/2020 at 2:48 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Holy shit.  Trump beat Hillary by 700K in 2016 (excluding third parties).  350K out of Houston is half the margin right there.

its happening.gif

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I don't understand where these people claiming republicans are magically voting more is coming from. There aren't new republican voters to be had, thats why low turnout favors the GOP. High turnout is not coming from the "silent republicans" there is no such thing. You do know what there is such a thing of this election? Republicans who won't vote and republicans who will be voting for Joe Biden because they are tired of cheetoh.

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Posted
  On 10/30/2020 at 2:52 PM, immamac said:

I don't understand where these people claiming republicans are magically voting more is coming from. There aren't new republican voters to be had, thats why low turnout favors the GOP. High turnout is not coming from the "silent republicans" there is no such thing. You do know what there is such a thing of this election? Republicans who won't vote and republicans who will be voting for Joe Biden because they are tired of cheetoh.

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Exactly.  Republicans have a hard cap on votes in Texas despite the state's growth and it's somewhere around 4.5M.  New voters aren't voting Republicans.  

Posted
  On 10/30/2020 at 2:57 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Exactly.  Republicans have a hard cap on votes in Texas despite the state's growth and it's somewhere around 4.5M.  New voters aren't voting Republicans.  

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Ok so at 12 million votes predicted, Biden should win by 3 million 7.5 to 4.5. What’s all the hand wringing?

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  • Haha 1
Posted (edited)

Well, we officially eclipsed the total votes cast in all of 2016.  i guess that early-week lull didn't last long, well done Texas!  

That said, Tuesday is gonna be a blitz.  And I promise Trump will receive 5,000,000 votes or die tryin'.  This thing ain't close to over.  

What's the over/under on Tuesday turnout in Texas?  In terms of raw votes, not for any particular candidate?  

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/30/texas-votes-cast/?utm_source=Texas+Tribune+Newsletters&utm_campaign=208f3fe601-trib-newsletters-breaking-alert&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d9a68d8efc-208f3fe601-101204549&mc_cid=208f3fe601&mc_eid=e270f9fe31

I think Texas turns out to the tune of 60% on the nose.  

Edited by Lobo
Posted
  On 10/30/2020 at 2:48 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Holy shit.  Trump beat Hillary by 700K in 2016 (excluding third parties).  350K out of Houston is half the margin right there.

its happening.gif

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Going to depend on how much he can close the gap in the suburb and border counties to Austin, Dallas, Houston, and SA. West Texas and the panhandle will stay red. Biden is also under-performing with Hispanics, but even then if the trip to the RGV gets out more then it matters less as Biden gets at worst a 2 for 1 from that group. Based on what the gurus say it appears that Collin, Denton, and Tarrant could swing to Biden and then it's only a question of by how much. Williamson and Hays already swung blue and have had enormous turnout so the only question there is the margins. 

So it can happen for Biden, but it's going to be very close. 

Posted
  On 10/30/2020 at 3:09 PM, The Dog said:

Going to depend on how much he can close the gap in the suburb and border counties to Austin, Dallas, Houston, and SA. West Texas and the panhandle will stay red. Biden is also under-performing with Hispanics, but even then if the trip to the RGV gets out more then it matters less as Biden gets at worst a 2 for 1 from that group. Based on what the gurus say it appears that Collin, Denton, and Tarrant could swing to Biden and then it's only a question of by how much. Williamson and Hays already swung blue and have had enormous turnout so the only question there is the margins. 

So it can happen for Biden, but it's going to be very close. 

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i'm skeptical on collin and denton.  if those do go biden's way though it would be huge.



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