2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[tantric superman 4667]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i'm skeptical on collin and denton.  if those do go biden's way though it would be huge.

I'd stick with your skepticism. 

[The Dog 43808]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i'm skeptical on collin and denton.  if those do go biden's way though it would be huge.

That's why I pointed them out. If Biden wins those then he has an excellent chance to win the state. Same for Trump - he needs to hold them to win the state.

Edited October 30, 2020 by The Dog

[Huckleberry 32704]

Final Thursday update, did my best to deal with State site garbage data:

Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,563,873 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,386,420 (48.6%)
Third Party - 70,770 (0.8%)
 

[ndawg 1242]

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,563,873 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,386,420 (48.6%)
Third Party - 70,770 (0.8%)
 

Damn, fivethirtyeight.com has Trump at 50.6% and Biden at 48.5% right now. Your numbers weren't so close to theirs a few days ago.

[Huckleberry 32704]

Yep, yesterday was the first day in a while where that calculation crept back toward Republican counties.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yep, yesterday was the first day in a while where that calculation crept back toward Republican counties.

Are you going to put out any if/then numbers like if Harris and Dallas move 2 points left then these are the numbers, or anything like that?  Or just stick with the previous splits and make no predictions about electorate changes?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Serious, Huckleberry.  Get with the program.

[Huckleberry 32704]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Are you going to put out any if/then numbers like if Harris and Dallas move 2 points left then these are the numbers, or anything like that?  Or just stick with the previous splits and make no predictions about electorate changes?

We can look at that when early voting closes. I'm working on something else right now that seems pretty interesting. To me at least. Should have it posted within 30 minutes and then I'm probably done looking at this stuff for today.

[Bruh Man 3160]

 

[Huckleberry 32704]

15 most populous Texas counties (so the counties have changed from time to time but always the top 15):

So early voting wasn't really a thing in 1996. Then in the next two Presidential elections GWB was on the ballot. After the 2004 election, though, look at the incredibly consistent number of Election Day voters even regardless of election type (Presidential, Senatorial, Gubernatorial). It appears that election enthusiasm shows up in the early voting, not in Election Day voting.

There will be somewhere around 9.6 million Texas votes after early voting closes today. It seems to me, though, that we should be fairly confident of somewhere around 1.5 million Election Day votes for a final number of a little more than 11 million total votes.

[edit]  - Oh dammit I fucked that all up. 

We should have 1.5M Election Day voters in the 15 most populous counties. So roughly 2.2 million in Texas overall, for a final voter turnout in the 11.8 million range.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

15 most populous Texas counties (so the counties have changed from time to time but always the top 15):

So early voting wasn't really a thing in 1996. Then in the next two Presidential elections GWB was on the ballot. After the 2004 election, though, look at the incredibly consistent number of Election Day voters. It appears that election enthusiasm shows up in the early voting, not in Election Day voting.

There will be somewhere around 9.6 million Texas votes after early voting closes today. It seems to me, though, that we should be fairly confident of somewhere around 1.5 million Election Day votes for a final number of a little more than 11 million total votes.

anything 10M+ is a win, to me

[South Austin 52148]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

15 most populous Texas counties (so the counties have changed from time to time but always the top 15):

So early voting wasn't really a thing in 1996. Then in the next two Presidential elections GWB was on the ballot. After the 2004 election, though, look at the incredibly consistent number of Election Day voters even regardless of election type (Presidential, Senatorial, Gubernatorial). It appears that election enthusiasm shows up in the early voting, not in Election Day voting.

There will be somewhere around 9.6 million Texas votes after early voting closes today. It seems to me, though, that we should be fairly confident of somewhere around 1.5 million Election Day votes for a final number of a little more than 11 million total votes.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Edited October 30, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

G Elliot getting a little funky. 
 

 

 

Let's assume today is a heavy turnout because people realize they want to vote but they don't want to go on Tuesday: Let's say 4% for today. That takes us to approx 9.7m.  To get to 11m, we need Tuesday to have a 8% turnout and 12m requires 13.5%.  What are previous election days' turnout?

My vote total guess is 11.5m.

[Huckleberry 32704]

Obviously there's the COVID caveat this year, but I think the tilt toward early voting because of that may be balanced out by the Trump "VOTE IN PERSON ON ELECTION DAY" rhetoric and we end up somewhere around 1.5 million Election Day votes again.

[Huckleberry 32704]

Oh dammit I fucked that all up. 

We should have 1.5M Election Day voters in the 15 most populous counties. So roughly 2.2 million in Texas overall, for a final voter turnout in the 11.8 million range.

Edited the original post above to reflect this correction.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Longhorn94 2427]

And it appears that anything above 10.5M votes starts swinging the odds in Biden's favor. 11M+ would be incredible.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

11 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

And it appears that anything above 10.5M votes starts swinging the odds in Biden's favor. 11M+ would be incredible.

With Election Day voting presumably favoring Trump, one could argue that at this point lower overall turnout means lower Tuesday turnout which would be bad for Trump. Too bad we can’t make that assumption because of covid- even if we think trump voters aren’t instituting behavioral changes because it’s not a real thing. I think there’s plenty of Trump voters who talk a big game to be aligned but voted early because it’s easier or less risky. What they say and what they do are not exactly the same. 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

With Election Day voting presumably favoring Trump, one could argue that at this point lower overall turnout means lower Tuesday turnout which would be bad for Trump. Too bad we can’t make that assumption because of covid- even if we think trump voters aren’t instituting behaviors changes because it’s not a real thing. I think there’s plenty of Trump voters who talk a big game to be aligned but voted early because it’s easier or less risky. What they say and what they do are not exactly the same. 

I keep hearing through social media of Trump parades this weekend though and they love to do that stuff. I don't know if that will get some of the Trump folks that blow off voting out to vote or not. An awful lot of them vote percentagewise. Having the Biden/Harris bus roll through a few spots this weekend may help I would think.

[bluto 4894]

What’s the website to see if somebody has voted yet? All I’m finding is sites for absentee checks and they require bday info, I can’t find the one I was using that just needed name and county

[Huckleberry 32704]

Just now, bluto said:

What’s the website to see if somebody has voted yet? All I’m finding is sites for absentee checks and they require bday info, I can’t find the one I was using that just needed name and county

https://www.txballot.org/

[Pasken 1309]

Who the hell doesn't vote early???

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

4 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Who the hell doesn't vote early???

Maybe some people want the extra time to study the differences between the candidates so they're well informed before casting their vote.

or they're just procrastinators.  

[Pasken 1309]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Maybe some people want the extra time to study the differences between the candidates so they're well informed before casting their vote.

 

[Valmy77 13094]

11 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Who the hell doesn't vote early???

Tradition. Once you have always done something a certain way you just like to do it that way.

It just seems like there are more fun traditions in November than leaving work to go stand in line to vote on the way home. I would rather do it at a more convenient time.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Valmy77

[atomheartbevo 89450]

4 hours ago, immamac said:

I don't understand where these people claiming republicans are magically voting more is coming from. There aren't new republican voters to be had, thats why low turnout favors the GOP. High turnout is not coming from the "silent republicans" there is no such thing. You do know what there is such a thing of this election? Republicans who won't vote and republicans who will be voting for Joe Biden because they are tired of cheetoh.

If there was some large group of silent, really motivated, Republicans in this country, the GOP would have had a better shot at keeping Obama out of office both times, and they could have stemmed the 2018 mid-terms a bit.

But there were definitely Republicans who don't vote for whatever reason, and there were Republicans who were not happy with George W/Iraq, and that helped Obama in 2008, and I have a feeling many of those same Republicans are willing to sit this one out, or even vote for Biden.

[atomheartbevo 89450]

4 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Recall that Harris, despite its size, added less to Beto's ledger than Travis or Dallas.  Oil is a much harder cap there.

This week, there's a few thousand Exxon employees and their families who probably don't care for Trump bragging about how much he's done for oil and the economy.

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Oh dammit I fucked that all up. 

We should have 1.5M Election Day voters in the 15 most populous counties. So roughly 2.2 million in Texas overall, for a final voter turnout in the 11.8 million range.

Edited the original post above to reflect this correction.

I have been estimating between 10 and 15% on election day. So assuming 9.6 million after today that would be between 11.3 and 12.2 million. That puts your estimate in the middle.

I do think the turnout will be higher in Republican counties so using the top 15 estimate could end up being low. 12 million really appears to be a good estimate now. 

[Pasken 1309]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If there was some large group of silent, really motivated, Republicans in this country, the GOP would have had a better shot at keeping Obama out of office both times, and they could have stemmed the 2018 mid-terms a bit.

But there were definitely Republicans who don't vote for whatever reason, and there were Republicans who were not happy with George W/Iraq, and that helped Obama in 2008, and I have a feeling many of those same Republicans are willing to sit this one out, or even vote for Biden.

I hoping for the familiar. Kind of like the Bernie people that will go to his rally but won't actually feel the need to go vote.

[MissingInAction 24824]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Serious, Huckleberry.  Get with the program.

Username checks out.

[Tuco 5076]

So why is Texas kicking ass on early voting compared to other states?

Is the hint of competitiveness bringing out a bunch of people who never vote?  Are they pissed at some of the voter suppression fuckery?  Was the effort to register new voters more effective than I would have guessed?

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Tuco

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

yes.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If there was some large group of silent, really motivated, Republicans in this country, the GOP would have had a better shot at keeping Obama out of office both times, and they could have stemmed the 2018 mid-terms a bit.

But there were definitely Republicans who don't vote for whatever reason, and there were Republicans who were not happy with George W/Iraq, and that helped Obama in 2008, and I have a feeling many of those same Republicans are willing to sit this one out, or even vote for Biden.

I probably would have voted for Romney and McCain in 08 and 12 but didn’t bother to even try to educate myself on the candidates because I knew they would win Texas without my vote. 
maybe trumpism eliminated that segment but considering the PV 4 years ago they didn’t show up then. maybe the close polls are a motivation in Texas...but those people have been trained to not believe the fake news polls and to believe Trump, who is busy tweeting that he is up big in Texas. I hope he keeps that message up instead of asking his brood to be sure to vote because it’s close and Texas might be California in January unless they stop it. 
 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

I think trump’s turning politics into a tv event helps broadly (not to specific).  There is no way to be unaware anymore, which gets more people to the polls because apathy and ignorance are largely tamped out. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

I just went and checked out some of my neighbors on that website. At least one Trumpy family has not voted. Two others voted already (the ones that were leaning blank for pres so hopefully told the truth) . GOTV if you all have neighbors more blue than I do.

[gmr548 16517]

A couple weeks ago when that Longhorn dude on twitter predicted 12m and people here thought he was nuts.  Seems like there might be a legit shot now.

I still think that’s nuts. I do not think we’re getting nearly 3mm votes on Tuesday. The typically red counties largely keeping pace in terms of turnout shows you the Trump voters are voting early too. I think we’ve likely seen a good bit of canibalization of Election Day votes.

Now, I was on record as saying it’d be 10mm, plus or minus 250k. That looks like it is probably too pessimistic so I’ll eat crow on that. Good shit Texas.

[gmr548 16517]

Exactly.  Republicans have a hard cap on votes in Texas despite the state's growth and it's somewhere around 4.5M.  New voters aren't voting Republicans.  

Trump got 4.7mm in 2016 and will improve on that. Not voting in a non competitive state is a two way street.

[gmr548 16517]

Holy shit.  Trump beat Hillary by 700K in 2016 (excluding third parties).  350K out of Houston is half the margin right there.
its happening.gif

I mean, Clinton win Harris County by 12. It wouldn’t be going from net zero to net 350k. It would be well less than half of the margin.

[Aqua Buddha 14522]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

Trump got 4.7mm in 2016 and will improve on that. Not voting in a non competitive state is a two way street.

And Mitt got 4.6M in 2012 despite the state having grown over those 4 years.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I still think that’s nuts. I do not think we’re getting nearly 3mm votes on Tuesday. The typically red counties largely keeping pace in terms of turnout shows you the Trump voters are voting early too. I think we’ve likely seen a good bit of canibalization of Election Day votes.

Now, I was on record as saying it’d be 10mm, plus or minus 250k. That looks like it is probably too pessimistic so I’ll eat crow on that. Good shit Texas.

We should see the total between 9.6 or 9.8 after today. It's seems very likely that 11m is on the table and 12 a possibility. Like you, I thought 10.5 was the max. I was wrong.

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

11.5 - 11.9 million seemed like a fair guess

[gmr548 16517]

And Mitt got 4.6M in 2012 despite the state having grown over those 4 years.

And we know many of those voters flipped to Clinton, yet Trump still expanded the number. Trump will break 5mm votes if we’re approaching 11mm in turnout. He’ll, he’d be likely to do it at 10mm.

[Rimbo 25785]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

15 most populous Texas counties (so the counties have changed from time to time but always the top 15):

So early voting wasn't really a thing in 1996. Then in the next two Presidential elections GWB was on the ballot. After the 2004 election, though, look at the incredibly consistent number of Election Day voters even regardless of election type (Presidential, Senatorial, Gubernatorial). It appears that election enthusiasm shows up in the early voting, not in Election Day voting.

There will be somewhere around 9.6 million Texas votes after early voting closes today. It seems to me, though, that we should be fairly confident of somewhere around 1.5 million Election Day votes for a final number of a little more than 11 million total votes.

[edit]  - Oh dammit I fucked that all up. 

We should have 1.5M Election Day voters in the 15 most populous counties. So roughly 2.2 million in Texas overall, for a final voter turnout in the 11.8 million range.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

One of my kids came home and was saying that youth voters in Texas are turning out; I'll have to ask him his source but it's nice to see him talking politics and voting with his friends (he was a Sanders primary voter). Bernie was working hard to keep them engaged and I think it may have helped. They've stayed tuned in and kept up with what is going on. (obviously anecdotal)

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

27 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

One of my kids came home and was saying that youth voters in Texas are turning out; I'll have to ask him his source but it's nice to see him talking politics and voting with his friends (he was a Sanders primary voter). Bernie was working hard to keep them engaged and I think it may have helped. They've stayed tuned in and kept up with what is going on. (obviously anecdotal)

https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/texas-leads-nation-in-youth-early-voting-heres-why

 And according to a new study from Tufts University an amazing 753,600 Texans ages 18-29 have already voted early in this election. That's more than seven times the number that voted by this point in the last presidential race in 2016.

[RayDog 682]

39 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I mean, Clinton win Harris County by 12. It wouldn’t be going from net zero to net 350k. It would be well less than half of the margin.

Harris was plus 200k for Beto with much lower turnout.  Biden will net 350k to 400k in Harris based on turnout and estimates based on Beto's percentage. The math is simple. 

[South Austin 52148]

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

So why is Texas kicking ass on early voting compared to other states?

We aren't spending as much time caring about Longhorn football.

[The Dog 43808]

5 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

If Collin and Denton go to Biden, it's over.

Neither will.  It's all a game of holding down the margins as much as possible.

This is a partisan poll from a few days ago, but still relevant:

 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

This is a partisan poll from a few days ago, but still relevant:

 

Yeah--I saw that.  It's insane.  Either that poll is off or the statewide public polls are waaaaay off.

If Biden takes TX03 by 11, then he's winning Texas by 5.

[Pasken 1309]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--I saw that.  It's insane.  Either that poll is off or the statewide public polls are waaaaay off.

If Biden takes TX03 by 11, then he's winning Texas by 5.

Then we can make #DontMessWithTexas an un-ironic trending tag. Oh Let's hope so.