Jump to content

2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Bruh Man
Bruh Man

The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

Aqua Buddha
Aqua Buddha

Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

Posted Images

berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

I should've clarified that meant in Texas (as well as some other places mentioned). I didn't get that sense only because they were campaign folks speaking anonymously and willingly conceded not performing well elsewhere. But without further info it's impossible to tell.

The fact that they also claim to be feeling good about EV turnout in Nevada is a strong indication that they're lying.

Clark county already overtook its total 2016 vote with Election Day still to come.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

Posted
Posted (edited)

So we only need 12,000 people to vote in Hidalgo County and have them vote exactly the same way they always do? Hopfully. That seems like a good bet.

Travis and Bexar Counties need to be as pro-Biden as they were pro-Beto.

Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Fort Bend County needs to like Biden about 3% or so more than they liked Beto.

All that happening seems like a stretch. I guess we will all (well at least the never Trumpers of us) be hoping for a miracle on Tuesday. Watch those county totals.

 

Edited by Valmy77
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluto

bluto 4894

Posted
Posted
So we only need 12,000 people to vote in Hidalgo County and have them vote exactly the same way they always do? Hopfully. That seems like a good bet.
Travis and Bexar Counties need to be as pro-Biden as they were pro-Beto.
Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Fort Bend County needs to like Biden about 3% or so more than they liked Beto.
All that happening seems like a stretch. I guess we will all (well at least the never Trumpers of us) be hoping for a miracle on Tuesday. Watch those county totals.
 

Comparing Beto to Biden without accounting for their opponents is half hearted. Ultimately I still think Tx goes trump though.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gmr548

gmr548 16517

Posted
Posted
The fact that they also claim to be feeling good about EV turnout in Nevada is a strong indication that they're lying.
Clark county already overtook its total 2016 vote with Election Day still to come.
 
 

I mean, that info was sourced in advance of this news obviously. Good to see though.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
immamac

immamac 42519

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Ultimately I think we see a race that looks nearly indistinguishable from 2018 in terms of margins by county.

You keep saying this unbelievably stupid shit. 

Covid-19. The entire BLM movement. Women's rights being completely shit on. 

Those were not on the 2018 ballot, no one even fucking knew those were possible on the 2018 ballot. 

If you think voters are behaving the exact same way you are beyond help. The data shows that Trump's favorability on how he is handling the pandemic are in the fucking basement. He's an incumbent with lower than a 40% approval rating in an election year. A year where 230k+ americans have died from a pandemic. A year where the fire of social injustice is burning so white hot that major cities are experiencing massive marches amidst a pandemic. A year where a SC Justice was pushed through confirmation before Aid for the highest number of unemployed Americans since the great depression. 

Open your eyes and ears. This isn't the main stream media talking points, these are real things that A LOT OF PEOPLE who didn't vote in 2016 or 2018 care deeply about. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31283

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

It would be ridiculous for a Republican hack like Hanen to toss the votes out, have the decision affirmed by the 5th circuit 2-1 with Edith Brown writing the opinion, and going up to the Supreme Court where it’s upheld by a 5-4 Court with the principled John Robert’s voting with the liberals because he has coverage. That could never happen. 

Edith Jones is the really toxic one. Although Edith Brown Clement would do in a pinch.

How extraordinary(ily fucked up) is it that the Fifth Circuit has two constipated church ladies named Edith as judges?  And another one named Priscilla.

th?id=OIP.R-tpTFRzLdA9oJfDIVnlPAHaE8%26p

 

59814ecd.jpg

This one goes by Joy.

Edited by TwiceHorn
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gmr548

gmr548 16517

Posted
Posted
You keep saying this unbelievably stupid shit. 
Covid-19. The entire BLM movement. Women's rights being completely shit on. 
Those were not on the 2018 ballot, no one even fucking knew those were possible on the 2018 ballot. 
If you think voters are behaving the exact same way you are beyond help. The data shows that Trump's favorability on how he is handling the pandemic are in the fucking basement. He's an incumbent with lower than a 40% approval rating in an election year. A year where 230k+ americans have died from a pandemic. A year where the fire of social injustice is burning so white hot that major cities are experiencing massive marches amidst a pandemic. A year where a SC Justice was pushed through confirmation before Aid for the highest number of unemployed Americans since the great depression. 
Open your eyes and ears. This isn't the main stream media talking points, these are real things that A LOT OF PEOPLE who didn't vote in 2016 or 2018 care deeply about. 


And yet the vast majority of people fit their opinions on those things around their existing political/partisan associations, not the other way around. What limited hard data we have says a Trump win in TX is more likely than not. This basically comes down to you having faith people are going to do right and me being skeptical of that.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
immamac

immamac 42519

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 


And yet the vast majority of people fit their opinions on those things around their existing political/partisan associations, not the other way around. What limited hard data we have says a Trump win in TX is more likely than not. This basically comes down to you having faith people are going to do right and me being skeptical of that.

 

I can get on board with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Beto's out there killing it. And love AOC being involved as well. 

 

I made about 250 calls with them yesterday. Heard some good and bad. A few voters switched over to Biden after Trump's first debate performance. Many intended to vote, some had no intentions, I got a lot of Spanish speakers who get labeled as so and get put back in the queue for a phone call from a spanish-speaking volunteer. Overall it was a mixed bag. If you make 20 calls you're probably making a difference on 1-2 people.

  • Hook 'Em 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

Posted
Posted
I was going to listen to the hearing in the Southern District this morning regarding the drive through votes, but the Court either decided not to allow the public to listen, the hearing got cancelled, or they’re having technical problems. 



They’re up to shenanigans.
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I will agree the BLM movement doesn’t change many pre-existing mindsets, but COVID and women’s rights most definitely will swing some votes. COVID alone has allegedly made a significant impact on dotard’s senior citizen fire wall.

It's actually pretty terrifying to think that if Trump had just done even a mediocre job with the handling of Covid, we'd probably be looking at re-election in an electoral landslide.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bevo14

Bevo14 8274

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

It's actually pretty terrifying to think that if Trump had just done even a mediocre job with the handling of Covid, we'd probably be looking at re-election in an electoral landslide.

Yeah there's a good chance that would've happened. People are scared of what happens post-election, but the long term viability of a population brimming with complete morons is a bigger issue.

Edited by Bevo14
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

I made about 250 calls with them yesterday. Heard some good and bad. A few voters switched over to Biden after Trump's first debate performance. Many intended to vote, some had no intentions, I got a lot of Spanish speakers who get labeled as so and get put back in the queue for a phone call from a spanish-speaking volunteer. Overall it was a mixed bag. If you make 20 calls you're probably making a difference on 1-2 people.

Your description of the actual process is cool.

I struggle tremendously that there are folks out there, given the gravity of the situation, and they were like, "well, I wasn't even going to vote until this nice man/ lady called me..."

Really?  SMDH, if true. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Rimbo

Rimbo 25785

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Beto's out there killing it. And love AOC being involved as well. 

 

"You can't win, Darth Cruz. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine."

  --O'Rourke-Wan Kenobeto

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gmr548

gmr548 16517

Posted
Posted

Thinking out loud: So knowing the vote count is relatively secure, we have 9,719,100 early/mail in votes received per the Tribune. If Trump is ahead in those it is already over, but for argument's sake let's assume Biden is leading in that number (I think that's probably the expectation based on polling data).

If Biden is +7 in that count as the recent NYT poll suggests, he has a lead of approximately 680k votes. But that was with a week of early voting left with remaining voters more likely to vote Trump. Biden +2 is about 195k.

1.28 million votes needed to get to 11 million. So in the Biden +2 scenario he needs to get to 43 percent of remaining election day votes and the minute amount of mail ballots yet to be received. If we go to 12 million Biden has to get to about 46 percent. That feels optimistic but not impossible in the 11mm scenario, unlikely in the 12mm given how heavily Trump election day looks to skew. If we largely siphoned votes from election day in the third week, which I think we might have, and we get a lower turnout of 10.5mm, Biden only needs to get about 38 percent on the remaining if he is +2. Of course, if that's the case, he probably isn't up in the total count in the first place.

Biden +5 is about 485k votes and the chances sound a lot more plausible there. If early votes start coming in and Biden has a margin of that size, itmightjustbehappening.gif.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

Posted
Posted
Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

maybe...shit, probably the most important race in Texas. 

Damn right. We might be in a position to force common sense non-partisan redistricting next session.

Or not, I am not exactly sure how that works constitutionally. But we could at least make them sweat a bit while they gerrymander us. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ndawg

ndawg 1242

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Damn right. We might be in a position to force common sense non-partisan redistricting next session.

Or not, I am not exactly sure how that works constitutionally. But we could at least make them sweat a bit while they gerrymander us. 

If this were to happen, I'd want the Dems to gather the Republican leadership into a room without any cameras or media, and show them two maps: one gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats, and the other done entirely fairly. Then tell the Republicans, "you'll get the fair one if you publicly disavow Trump and Qanon, and state your unequivocal support for the ongoing investigation of the Trump administration. If you don't, we'll make sure every Republican has to wait a minimum of six hours in line to vote for our next president."

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

Posted
Posted

I mean that would be great. But I think if the Governor and the House cannot agree with redrawing the districts there is some kind of process that allows the Republicans to draw the damn things anyway. I hope we win the House so I can find out if I am wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gmr548

gmr548 16517

Posted
Posted
It’s going to end up in the SC either way. Hopefully we pick up a few seats there as well. (Those races have been really quiet, btw. Any poling there?)

They’ll probably be right in line with the senate race or even slightly more R. They’re basically a measure of partisanship.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


They’ll probably be right in line with the senate race or even slightly more R. They’re basically a measure of partisanship.

Yeah I was going to say that I think the Supreme Court races will be interesting to see where the Texas electorate really is when candidates don’t matter. That’s about as anonymous/generic as it gets. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

Posted
Posted (edited)

Hanen’s order 

 

 

Imo, this means Harris better not have drive through tomorrow.  
 

I can envision some crazy scenario where day-of votes are thrown out because of an eventual finding of standing giving he said if standing was appropriate day-of doesn’t allow tents.

 

 

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!
Link to comment
Share on other sites
immamac

immamac 42519

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Hansen’s order 

 

 

Imo, this means Harris better not have drive through tomorrow.  
 

I can envision some crazy scenario where day-of votes are thrown out because of an eventual finding of standing giving he said if standing was appropriate day-of doesn’t allow tents.

 

 

I dare them to fucking throw out votes after Texas turns blue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...