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Posted
2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I believe it was GOLL that said, "These are stupid people who are bad at politics."

I would have said "bad at setting up automated emails", but it's the same thing.

 

Posted
7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Travis hit 60% just now.  Getting to 78% seems really hard, but even 70% would be welcome.

huh? we were at a fraction under 65% at the end of early voting. Are you looking at only in-person voting? Because the number you cited seems to be that

Posted
16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Travis hit 60% just now.  Getting to 78% seems really hard, but even 70% would be welcome.

I think you are confused with another County? Travis hit 60% last week.

Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Travis hit 60% just now.  Getting to 78% seems really hard, but even 70% would be welcome.

We need 45,332.50 votes to hit 70%

Here are the rest of the totals needed for each percent total

Percent Needed 11/3
64.70%  
70.00% 45,332.50
71.00% 53,884.25
72.00% 62,436.00
73.00% 70,987.75
74.00% 79,539.50
75.00% 88,091.25
76.00% 96,643.00
77.00% 105,194.75
78.00% 113,746.50
79.00% 122,298.25
80.00% 130,850.00
81.00% 139,401.75
82.00% 147,953.50
83.00% 156,505.25
84.00% 165,057.00
85.00% 173,608.75
86.00% 182,160.50
87.00% 190,712.25
88.00% 199,264.00

 

2016 Numbers

Registered Voters: 732,037 

Early Vote: 368,005

Election Day: 100,175

 

2020 Numbers

Registered Voters: 855,175

Early Vote: 553,290

Election Day: 

Edited by Neonmoon
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Posted
19 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We need 45,332.50 votes to hit 70%

Here are the rest of the totals needed for each percent total

Percent Needed 11/3
64.70%  
70.00% 45,332.50
71.00% 53,884.25
72.00% 62,436.00
73.00% 70,987.75
74.00% 79,539.50
75.00% 88,091.25
76.00% 96,643.00
77.00% 105,194.75
78.00% 113,746.50
79.00% 122,298.25
80.00% 130,850.00
81.00% 139,401.75
82.00% 147,953.50
83.00% 156,505.25
84.00% 165,057.00
85.00% 173,608.75
86.00% 182,160.50
87.00% 190,712.25
88.00% 199,264.00

 

2016 Numbers

Registered Voters: 732,037 

Early Vote: 368,005

Election Day: 100,175

 

2020 Numbers

Registered Voters: 855,175

Early Vote: 553,290

Election Day: 

we're already halfway to the number needed to get to 70%. I'm betting we'll see a large increase in the next two hours of people voting at lunch

Posted (edited)

Hoping Texas is the opposite of the blue wall states 4 years ago. Actually I hope it’s enough to get called right around the time west coast polls close so they can call tx, ca, wa, or, nv, and az at the same time. 
6 pointed coffin lid. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Posted

Carrying over from the larger election thread, but supposedly the Biden campaign estimates that Trump needs 49 percent of election day votes in Texas to carry the state. Their estimated turnout was not mentioned. 

Take that with a grain of salt, but if true it implies Trump had already won as of the end of EV and is going to cruise to a victory larger than any of us reasonably expected, because he will smash 49 percent today. If anywhere near accurate Trump will have a couple hundred thousand vote cushion.

Again, though, it isn't like the Biden campaign would be yelling from the rooftops about wining Texas so take it for what it is.

Posted
4 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

did no click but the link says live voter turnout?  🤪

The link says that but the website is as clear as mud.  It doesn't clarify that it doesn't include absentee voters, and it claims 60.7% "turnout".  No big deal, it's useful for tracking the days' turnout (which stands at 27K at this point).

Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The link says that but the website is as clear as mud.  It doesn't clarify that it doesn't include absentee voters, and it claims 60.7% "turnout".  No big deal, it's useful for tracking the days' turnout (which stands at 27K at this point).

clicked through.  Yeah a note would be nice that they don't have mail in ballots on there but they don't have a mail in ballot color for the pie chart.

Posted (edited)

If Eliz Markowitz beats Gary Gates in Fort Bend, I am going to dig up all the butthurt posts from their special election asking if Beto is a drag on the Democratic Party. This was always going to be her best shot.

Edited by StassneyHorn
Posted
4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

For those who don't know, Fort Bend was an O'Rourke county. 

Damn right it was.  I'm really hoping that this super-sized turnout brings Sri a win over Nehls (and his stupid-ass bigger than life-size campaign posters).

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Posted

Is it safe to say Texas’ turnout has exceeded all the thresholds previously mentioned in this thread that would indicate Texas is blue?

I still think Texas will be Trump +3 but looking at the numbers I think turnout is where everyone in this thread hoped it would be.

Posted
Just now, Snake Diggity said:

Is it safe to say Texas’ turnout has exceeded all the thresholds previously mentioned in this thread that would indicate Texas is blue?

I still think Texas will be Trump +3 but looking at the numbers I think turnout is where everyone in this thread hoped it would be.

If you think Texas is Trump +3, then Texas is not blue. 

Posted

I'm here. Have been traveling. I'll do an avatar bet. Or an IP ban bet. I dont post a lot but I check the site daily. Would rather not be IP banned. 

Posted

Had to run an errand at lunch.  Saw a guy in a large pickup with American and Trump flags apparently driving up and down in front of O. Henry Middle School.  He looked like he could barely see over the steering wheel, so I felt sorry for him.   

This afternoon, saw a guy on the Mopac bridge at Spicewood Springs/West Anderson Mill walking back and forth over Mopac waving Trump and American flags.  Both he and the shorty in the pickup clearly had that mushroom-dick energy going on.  

I shouldn’t joke, while the pickup driver just looked like an angry white guy, bridge guy clearly had serious mental issues.  

Downtown Austin had lots of bored DPS troopers doing loops around various areas.  Saw some really bored National Guard members, who were clearly not happy to be doing whatever they were doing, and they were having to wear body armor.  

Posted (edited)

Counties that are coming in are right at 2018 vote shares or a little above or below. That analysis I was running therefore predicts a 2 to 2.5% win for Trump. That's before Election Day votes, though..

Edited by Huckleberry


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