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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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Bruh Man
Bruh Man

The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

Aqua Buddha
Aqua Buddha

Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43266

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Polling location I went to (Texas disability on Braker and Kramer) had higher numbers on Wednesday than Tuesday and significantly higher numbers for the AM on Thursday than either previous day. 

Would have screenshotted their census but that would probably have been frowned upon and my phone was already off. 

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texhorn

texhorn 351

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This is purely anecdotal evidence.  My parents live in Wilco, Sun City to be exact, which is not an insignificant portion of the population, and there are other similar retirement communities throughout the area.  To speak very generally, it's an old, white, conservative population with a lot of former-military, so no surprise at their historical voting patterns.
But four years ago I was surprised to see how many Hillary signs there were around Sun City.  And two years ago, there were significantly more signs for Beto than Cruz, (which is not surprising, because lets face it, nobody really likes that little fuckstick, not even his own parents).  I know you can only put so much weight into yard signs, and I don't see Wilco turning solidly purple any time soon, but I bet Biden performs well there. 

I live a few minutes down the road from the main Sun City entrance. Happily voted straight Blue this morning at the Sun City Randalls. Surprisingly wasn’t packed with olds. folks of all ages in line.
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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11 minutes ago, South Austin said:

It's going to be a lot of work for the Trump administration to invalidate all of these votes.

Texas GOP taking Harris county to the Supreme Court to remove the drive-in voting. And I guarantee they will ask for those votes to be invalidated as well.

My expectation is the the Supreme Court will stop drive-in voting but NOT invalidate the votes already cast. 

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NameAlreadyInUse

NameAlreadyInUse 5106

Posted
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2 hours ago, South Austin said:

This is purely anecdotal evidence.  My parents live in Wilco, Sun City to be exact, which is not an insignificant portion of the population, and there are other similar retirement communities throughout the area.  To speak very generally, it's an old, white, conservative population with a lot of former-military, so no surprise at their historical voting patterns.

But four years ago I was surprised to see how many Hillary signs there were around Sun City.  And two years ago, there were significantly more signs for Beto than Cruz, (which is not surprising, because lets face it, nobody really likes that little fuckstick, not even his own parents).  I know you can only put so much weight into yard signs, and I don't see Wilco turning solidly purple any time soon, but I bet Biden performs well there. 

Wait, all you idiots are driving all the way up to Georgetown to fuck South Austin's mom?

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Texas GOP taking Harris county to the Supreme Court to remove the drive-in voting. And I guarantee they will ask for those votes to be invalidated as well.

My expectation is the the Supreme Court will stop drive-in voting but NOT invalidate the votes already cast. 

Yeah you can’t disenfranchise people for voting in a legally allowed way that goes away after the fact. 

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Pancho

Pancho 44487

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Texas GOP taking Harris county to the Supreme Court to remove the drive-in voting. And I guarantee they will ask for those votes to be invalidated as well.

My expectation is the the Supreme Court will stop drive-in voting but NOT invalidate the votes already cast. 

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

Posted
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Texas GOP taking Harris county to the Supreme Court to remove the drive-in voting. And I guarantee they will ask for those votes to be invalidated as well.

My expectation is the the Supreme Court will stop drive-in voting but NOT invalidate the votes already cast. 

I don't even think there is even a mechanism to trace a vote back to drive-in versus walk-in. The votes are entered into the exact same system. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

One more anecdote from me.

just read a post from a fb friend where she shows her “I voted” sticker and also admits that this is the first time she’s voted for a presidential candidate. I know her age, she’s been an eligible voter for around 22 years. Dallas county. 

i'll take it.  we do a great job of making voting seem unimportant.  i myself dabbled in nonvote-ism once.  good to see people snapping out of it.

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thepop

thepop 4409

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I find it fascinating when I meet people who haven’t voted. In 2018 i helped a friend vote for the first time and this year I’m helping another friend vote for the first time. Neither know anything about politics and think it’s a waste of time, but turns out when you offer to buy them lunch they are game for whatever.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104628

Posted
Posted
Just now, thepop said:

I find it fascinating when I meet people who haven’t voted. In 2018 i helped a friend vote for the first time and this year I’m helping another friend vote for the first time. Neither know anything about politics and think it’s a waste of time, but turns out when you offer to buy them lunch they are game for whatever.

Never understood that.  Voted in the first election I was eligible for, and haven't missed a material election ever (I think I missed ONE bond election or something like that about 10 years ago -- I didn't plan ahead, it was before early voting was a deal, and I had to leave town on business on election day).  I certainly get that I'm more engaged than most, was a political junkie at 10 yrs old, but still.....it's a basic civic duty.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
Posted
One more anecdote from me.
just read a post from a fb friend where she shows her “I voted” sticker and also admits that this is the first time she’s voted for a presidential candidate. I know her age, she’s been an eligible voter for around 22 years. Dallas county. 

So, who’d she vote for?


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WBT

WBT 20422

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Texas GOP taking Harris county to the Supreme Court to remove the drive-in voting. And I guarantee they will ask for those votes to be invalidated as well.

My expectation is the the Supreme Court will stop drive-in voting but NOT invalidate the votes already cast. 

How does the drive-in voting work?

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Never understood that.  Voted in the first election I was eligible for, and haven't missed a material election ever (I think I missed ONE bond election or something like that about 10 years ago -- I didn't plan ahead, it was before early voting was a deal, and I had to leave town on business on election day).  I certainly get that I'm more engaged than most, was a political junkie at 10 yrs old, but still.....it's a basic civic duty.

We're politics junkies. That's what we forget in here and on Twitterville. There are a lot of people that see the rancor and disdain that is part and parcel of existence in CR and are immediately turned off. They didn't like history. They were bored to tears in government. It's not how they are wired. 

Then along came a pandemic. It's amazing how quickly one can be engaged in the process when it dawns on them that the occupant of the WH had a direct impact on whether or not a whole bunch of people died. And loss of job is a close second. I'm lucky. I didn't lose a paycheck. I have a job. There are millions without one this week or month and not one of the GOP and particularly not the fucker in the WH gives a rat's ass. The newly minted voters have only one way to hit back. Vote those mfers out. Every one of them. That's why you are seeing record numbers for registrations and early voting. The knuckles are itchy. 

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LurkingHorn

LurkingHorn 1049

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Tarrant county is about to post their highest day of votes so far. 

Remember when I was slightly underwhelmed with the first day turnout? Tarrant has now topped the first day total twice. 132k votes already which is about  20% of the total votes cast in 2016. I’m a backup poll worker and got called to work next week because of how busy voting locations are. We’ll be casting two more votes tomorrow. Can’t wait. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Remember when I was slightly underwhelmed with the first day turnout? Tarrant has now topped the first day total twice. 132k votes already which is about  20% of the total votes cast in 2016. I’m a backup poll worker and got called to work next week because of how busy voting locations are. We’ll be casting two more votes tomorrow. Can’t wait. 

I’m going on Monday. Hopefully the turnout is still high, but the lines are a little better by then.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Not sure if it’s good or bad that Texas is t same day registration.  Would the numbers so far have encouraged more to go out and vote for Biden if it doesn’t look like a lost cause, or would it cause more trump people to ensure his victory? 

more people voting is always good

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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47 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Not sure if it’s good or bad that Texas is t same day registration.  Would the numbers so far have encouraged more to go out and vote for Biden if it doesn’t look like a lost cause, or would it cause more trump people to ensure his victory? 

Republican voters are maxed out IMO, would only help Dems.

 A good bit of people on the board think Texas will be purple for awhile, but I think once Texas goes blue the “everyone loves a winner” effect is going to happen and those who always leaned Dem but never voted are going to start coming out. The demographics are so overwhelmingly majority minority and will favor Dems who haven’t dedicated their existence to being shitty.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Excuse me bartender, a round of boners please. Around 399k total for Houston

Dallas

 

Tarrant had about 45k in person from the live turnout link. No word on mail.

Bexar County at 108k total, don’t know the daily breakdown

Travis had just under 40k from the live turnout link. No word on mail.

 

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ztejas

ztejas 43266

Posted
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3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i'll take it.  we do a great job of making voting seem unimportant.  i myself dabbled in nonvote-ism once.  good to see people snapping out of it.

I'm 1 for 2... but mostly because I fucked up my registration the first time around (had the wrong address on file).

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

Posted
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11 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

On researching numbers, I used the Texas SoS election page. For many of the counties, they tell you exactly who has already voted this year.  By name. You can see that John Smith of whatever county voted in person or by mail this week.

I realize they don't tell you the details of the vote but this is incredible information for them to disclose. This would ultimately allow campaigns to continually narrow their focus on people that haven't voted yet. They can keep analyzing the numbers daily to find high probability voters that haven't engaged yet. Then act on it even to the point of knocking on their door to understand what's up.

I'm getting about 10 fucking texts and phone calls a night asking if I voted, or intend to vote.  All kinds of offices.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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11 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I was playing around with scenarios. Assuming 10m votes in Texas, the net new voters would need to go about 90-10 blue for Biden to win, based on 2016 voting. Excel technically showed it as 89-9. I gave 2% to Other. This seems like an unrealistic target for Biden to take that much of the new vote.

IF 5% (140K) of Trump 2016 voters switched to Biden, Biden then only needs to take 65% of the net new voters. That seems within the realm of possibility. It’s a high mark but possible.

It’s an unknown whether Trump has lost support from his 2016 voters. Conventional wisdom would say that more Trump voters would flip to Biden then Hillary voters flipping to Trump. 

You know what's unknown?  How many Trump supporters died of old age/underlying issues since 2016.

That would be an interesting number to figure out.

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