2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[LurkingHorn 1049]

After a lull on Saturday, tarrant starts off this week with its second highest day, another 45k. Will be interesting to see how consistent that stays this week. 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

After work voters in Harris County were higher than I thought.
Should make my high end 75K estimate and probably go higher.

You were a little low—91K for Monday.

That’s really incredible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Voldemort86 2259]

12 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

After a lull on Saturday, tarrant starts off this week with its second highest day, another 45k. Will be interesting to see how consistent that stays this week. 

I’m going tomorrow.

[Dahobbs 17447]

15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

You were a little low—91K for Monday.

That’s really incredible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That includes mail-in of 17k. Still really good. 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

9 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Me, either.  

But it doesn't matter.  Once the poll worker matches your ID, you get a regular ballot.  From that point, it's secret.  There is no way to match up which ballot goes with which voter.  So even if your signature doesn't match, there is no way for them to find your ballot and claw it back.

So yeah, speaking of signatures...

https://www.kxan.com/news/your-local-election-hq/travis-county-will-notify-you-if-your-mail-in-ballot-is-rejected-because-of-a-mismatching-signature/

Quote

A federal appeals court on Monday allowed Texas to reinstate its process for reviewing mail-in ballot signatures, while also noting the state does not have to immediately notify voters whose ballots are rejected.

Quote

Travis County will continue a program that notifies voters if a mail-in ballot is rejected because of a mismatching signature.

Travis County Clerk Dana DeBeauvoir told KXAN voters whose ballots are flagged by the county’s ballot review board will be notified in the mail and will be given the opportunity to fix their ballot.

Quote

The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals issued a stay to a lower court injunction that said the state must notify a voter if a mail-in ballot is rejected. The state once again must only notify a voter of a rejected mail-in ballot within the 10th day after an election and does not have to provide an appeals process.

 

[Guest Lobo]

Can't find the "I just voted" thread on here for some reason.  Maybe lost in the October reboot.  Surprise! 

On a whim, pulled into the church near home and line didn't look too bad so I voted last evening.  Was very encouraged by the fact this church is in a very red part of a blue city, but all the chatter was about Biden.  Obviously anecdotal, but it's something.  And the turnout was remarkably younger than I thought.  I'm guessing some folks from South Austin saw this was nearby and had shorter lines than the other venues, so they came over---as I did.  It's a good thing.  Woman in front me was a Trump voter but was incredibly worried about distancing between her and the woman in front of her, and making sure I was hanging back behind her.  I wish her Messiah felt the same way.  But line was about 100 people and I'd bet 75% of them were Biden voters.  And this was a slow Monday late afternoon/early evening.  

Anyway, I am blaring, and I mean blaring "Scarlet Begonias" by the Grateful Dead in the newly sound-deadened (pun intended) home office.  The first purple rumors of a sunrise should be along shortly. 

We've one more long night to get through, but it's almost Morning in America again.  My fellow patriots, I'll see you at breakfast.  

[Wally Pryor 5244]

Wow...great news.  Statesman:
 

With less than two weeks of early voting to go, Central Texas counties are on track to record their largest early voter turnout in recent memory.

Williamson County is leading the way, with ballots from nearly one-third of its registered voters already accounted for.

With 16.9 million voters registered statewide, more than 4 million Texas, or about 24%, cast a ballot in the first week of early voting, according to Stephen Chang, communications director for the Texas Secretary of State.

Before 2019, the state only collected data for a slice of the largest counties, which included Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, Travis and Harris.

By comparison, he said that for those five counties the first week of early voting in 2016 was around 1.68 million and in 2020 that is about 1.74 million.

[Huckleberry 32703]

Based on 2018 county voting splits:

Trump - 2,357,125 (50.9%)
Biden - 2,276,047 (49.1%)
 

[Guest Lobo]

I honestly did not know early voting included a truncated Sunday this cycle.  That's amazing.  You can't buy vodka Texas, but you can sure as shit get rid of Donald Trump.  Let's call it a wash.  

Deep down inside, we all know a huge chunk of this early voting is Trumpers wanting to quietly flex their will on Texas so they can high-five one another.  I get it, it's part of the democratic process.  Symbolically, Trump can lose the general.  But Texas can't be seen as going to Biden.  In the end, I think Trump will make deals with myriad state electorates.  the RNC will take the loss on the chin and try to preserve the Senate for the long game.  But they cannot, under any circumstances, lose Texas.  Ours will be a state they protest even after Trump concedes the General.  Because a blue Texas is inevitable but not for another decade or so.  You can't have a 2020 Blue Texas.  It ruins the RNC a decade too early.  I promise you that Texas will be contested, even if Trump wins it.  They've got to beat it down from a 51-49 state to 53-47.  It can't sustain what it's about to do.  It would break the world.  We've all heard the lectures from republican gurus...no republican POTUS candidate can win without Texas.  Maths say yes.  2032 says no.  But what if history moved up a bit?  I don't like the Democratic Party but I still feel like Bud in "Kill Bill" 

I look at Trumpers and I feel like Madsen sitting on his trailer stoop, and saying---in reference to Democrats and the piece of human garbage that is Trump and so many of his followers............."Those people deserve their revenge.  And we deserve to lose."  

Edited October 20, 2020 by Lobo

[Huckleberry 32703]

To be completely honest I'm surprised that early in-person voting jumped back up above 2016 yesterday. I figured after the weekend people would have made plans on when they'll vote and we would have seen it start to spread out over the 12 remaining days. Extended early voting is almost certainly going to increase total voting, but perhaps the primary effect will simply be lower Election Day totals.

[Huckleberry 32703]

First 7 Days of Early Voting:

2014: 701,670 (7.82%)
2016: 2,403,959 (24.63%)
2018: 2,252,217 (21.89%)
2020: 2,814,138 (25.28%)
 

[South Austin 52144]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

To be completely honest I'm surprised that early in-person voting jumped back up above 2016 yesterday. I figured after the weekend people would have made plans on when they'll vote and we would have seen it start to spread out over the 12 remaining days. Extended early voting is almost certainly going to increase total voting, but perhaps the primary effect will simply be lower Election Day totals.

Interesting that AISD decided to make Election Day a school holiday, presumably with the intent of giving teachers, staff, and parents the day off so they could vote.  I wonder if a good chunk of those folks have already voted.

[Huckleberry 32703]

Just now, South Austin said:

Interesting that AISD decided to make Election Day a school holiday, presumably with the intent of giving teachers, staff, and parents the day off so they could vote.  I wonder if a good chunk of those folks have already voted.

Cy-Fair ISD made Election Day a district-wide mandatory online learning day. So no students in schools, everyone goes virtual. It's not a staff holiday, though, the intent was to get kids out of the schools while the voters are all there. Not sure on AISD.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

17 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Some quick comparisons for the 15 most populous Texas counties:

Total Voters (Percentage) Voting Early In-Person through the first Sunday

2014: 701,670 (7.82%)

2016: 2,403,959 (24.63%)

2018: 2,252,217 (21.89%)

2020: 2,419,257 (21.74%)

(note that there is one fewer day of voting for 2020 because it opened on Tuesday instead of Monday - there were 6 early days added, not 7)

Total Voters (Percentage) Voting Early In-Person starting on the first Tuesday through the first Sunday (removing first Monday from 2014-2018)

2014: 588,048 (6.55%)

2016: 2,009,679 (20.59%)

2018: 1,855,715 (18.03%)

2020: 2,419,257 (21.74%)

So- slightly up from the most recent presidential but essentially pretty close to business as usual- is that fair?  Or are these numbers more impressive than I’m giving them credit for there do you think?  

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Interesting that AISD decided to make Election Day a school holiday, presumably with the intent of giving teachers, staff, and parents the day off so they could vote.  I wonder if a good chunk of those folks have already voted.

Our district did that as well.  Obviously anecdotal, but the number of administrators and teachers I've spoken with the last week (we have regular zoom calls at the staff level for another reason unrelated to election day), they're all voting after school/work or on weekends.  They are encouraging others to do the same and then just enjoy Election Day as a surprise vacation day or occasion to catch up on shit since this second 9-week period with 75% in class/25% remote is a challenge in and of itself.  But I know that groups of them are going to vote together after work this week or this weekend.  /csb

tl:dr...Your False Messiah sucks cocks in hell.  And I promise you he'll be dead by the next Winter Olympics.  

[atomheartbevo 89449]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Interesting that AISD decided to make Election Day a school holiday, presumably with the intent of giving teachers, staff, and parents the day off so they could vote.  I wonder if a good chunk of those folks have already voted.

AISD has had schools used for voting locations on Election Day in the past, and I think that’s why they are doing a day off this time, for covid reasons.  

[Huckleberry 32703]

48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So- slightly up from the most recent presidential but essentially pretty close to business as usual- is that fair?  Or are these numbers more impressive than I’m giving them credit for there do you think?  

I'm not a bold prognosticator by nature, so I'm just interested to see how it works out. I don't think you can tell anything because of how many more early voting days we have this year. For example, even if you say that every day of early voting starting today through the end of it matches the lowest turnout day of 2018, a mid-term election, we will still have 50% of registered voters in the State voting before Election Day. That's wild. It was 46% in 2016 but with the increase in population and voter registration that would be 8.5 million votes before Election Day compared to 7 million in 2016.

[gmr548 16517]

So- slightly up from the most recent presidential but essentially pretty close to business as usual- is that fair?  Or are these numbers more impressive than I’m giving them credit for there do you think?  

It's really impossible to make that call until you see the final number. If this trend continues, it could be that more votes just shift to early voting this year with fewer on election day, with a similar turnout rate overall. It could remainin strong for the next two weeks to the point that we hit 2012-16 levels (59 percent of registered voters) by the end of early voting. It could be that the next two weeks crater and early turnout is only marginally higher with the extra week.

[Huckleberry 32703]

But that's compared to yesterday's:

So it's actually quite a bit better on a percentage basis. Like I said, it's just really hard to get a read on early voting this year because of the COVID-induced schedule changes.

[Wally Pryor 5244]

 

 

[South Austin 52144]

48 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

AISD has had schools used for voting locations on Election Day in the past, and I think that’s why they are doing a day off this time, for covid reasons.  

Got it.  Look like a lot of school are Election Day polling locations, so sounds right.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, your mom is a polling location.  tehehehe

[Bateshorn 9905]

Wait, the schools in Texas don't usually close on election day to be polling places?

[Snake Diggity 4614]

anecdote: Wife and I voted this morning in SW Austin, there was a 20 minute line when we got there at 8am, by the time we were done voting and left at 8:30 the line was easily twice as long.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Wait, the schools in Texas don't usually close on election day to be polling places?

As a youngster I recall adults voting in the school buildings. Hopefully they didn't carry off too many kids.

If the GOP retains control of the state govt, I expect they will crack down on many of the recent voting trends including forbidding schools to close. Can't have them liberal, union teachers vote.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Based on 2018 county voting splits:

Trump - 2,357,125 (50.9%)
Biden - 2,276,047 (49.1%)
 

 

Maybe we'll win by three touchdowns.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

4 hours ago, South Austin said:

Interesting that AISD decided to make Election Day a school holiday, presumably with the intent of giving teachers, staff, and parents the day off so they could vote.  I wonder if a good chunk of those folks have already voted.

It is completely wild that in the Normal Times we just allowed people to walk into schools to vote while school was going on.  I mean, I remember as a school kid that the entry of our elementary school was a polling place and how weird it was for all of us to be walking to lunch by a line of adults in line to vote.  And as an adult, I remember voting in a school with plenty of kids around, and thinking "this would be just a great time for some asshole to come in and shoot up this school."

I don't think we're going back to that.

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So- slightly up from the most recent presidential but essentially pretty close to business as usual- is that fair?  Or are these numbers more impressive than I’m giving them credit for there do you think?  

Well, you have an extra week of voting.  I mean, if you think the extra week of voting is going to have zero voters, then I would agree that these numbers are not terribly impressive.  But if you think that extra week is going to have numbers similar to this week, then it means you're going to have close to a third more people voting early than voted early in 2016.  And that would be pretty damned impressive.

Look at it this way--we had 4.6M votes cast after one week.  That is more than half of the total vote cast in 2016 (i.e. <9M).  And we still have two weeks of early voting left to go.  

[Woland 729]

Wait, the schools in Texas don't usually close on election day to be polling places?

No. I used to cram 40 elementary band kids into a maintenance closet on Election Day because that was the only place to practice.

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

I voted in the Rouse High School library while school was in session in 2016. Rouse wasn't a poling location in 2018 or this year. 

[Pancho 44487]

 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

30 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It is completely wild that in the Normal Times we just allowed people to walk into schools to vote while school was going on.  I mean, I remember as a school kid that the entry of our elementary school was a polling place and how weird it was for all of us to be walking to lunch by a line of adults in line to vote.  And as an adult, I remember voting in a school with plenty of kids around, and thinking "this would be just a great time for some asshole to come in and shoot up this school."

I don't think we're going back to that.

Well, you have an extra week of voting.  I mean, if you think the extra week of voting is going to have zero voters, then I would agree that these numbers are not terribly impressive.  But if you think that extra week is going to have numbers similar to this week, then it means you're going to have close to a third more people voting early than voted early in 2016.  And that would be pretty damned impressive.

Look at it this way--we had 4.6M votes cast after one week.  That is more than half of the total vote cast in 2016 (i.e. <9M).  And we still have two weeks of early voting left to go.  

I assumed those were comparing apples to apples. If we are just shifting the vote forward Away from Election Day I don’t see much of a point (good or bad- just different). 
I’m all for ease of voting so that’s good (as long as it’s secure) but it bugs me a little to think of people voting a month before an election when new shit can come to light. I suppose if you are voting that early you are an unpersuadable either way, but seems a little odd to me. 
EV is a scourge to me in primary situations that shouldn’t be allowed what with candidates dropping out all the time, but that’s maybe just me being an old man yelling at the clouds. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I assumed those were comparing apples to apples. If we are just shifting the vote forward Away from Election Day I don’t see much of a point (good or bad- just different). 
I’m all for ease of voting so that’s good (as long as it’s secure) but it bugs me a little to think of people voting a month before an election when new shit can come to light. I suppose if you are voting that early you are an unpersuadable either way, but seems a little odd to me. 
EV is a scourge to me in primary situations that shouldn’t be allowed what with candidates dropping out all the time, but that’s maybe just me being an old man yelling at the clouds. 

Yes, it is you being an old man yelling at crowds. Early voting is good. Giving people more options and time to vote is good. I think mitigating over reaction to events that occur during the last few weeks of an election is actually a good thing. Most of the time, those things really shouldn't determine who a person votes for anyway and are often politically calculated releases of misinformation (e.g., "Hunter Biden's" laptop)

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes, it is you being an old man yelling at crowds. Early voting is good. Giving people more options and time to vote is good. I think mitigating over reaction to events that occur during the last few weeks of an election is actually a good thing. Most of the time, those things really shouldn't determine who a person votes for anyway and are often politically calculated releases of misinformation (e.g., "Hunter Biden's" laptop)

I was mostly taking about primaries. Where people’s picks aren’t as written in concrete and their choice has a great chance to drop out before the primary actually gets to your state. 

[Valmy77 13094]

38 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I assumed those were comparing apples to apples. If we are just shifting the vote forward Away from Election Day I don’t see much of a point (good or bad- just different). 
I’m all for ease of voting so that’s good (as long as it’s secure) but it bugs me a little to think of people voting a month before an election when new shit can come to light. I suppose if you are voting that early you are an unpersuadable either way, but seems a little odd to me. 
EV is a scourge to me in primary situations that shouldn’t be allowed what with candidates dropping out all the time, but that’s maybe just me being an old man yelling at the clouds. 

This election has been going for well over a year. Biden has been a public figure since the 1970s, Trump since the 1980s. There is nothing of substance coming to light. The whole idea of some October Surprise changing everything is a ridiculous theatrical reality TV wet dream. I don't vote based on that kind of nonsense.

[Valmy77 13094]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was mostly taking about primaries. Where people’s picks aren’t as written in concrete and their choice has a great chance to drop out before the primary actually gets to your state. 

Ah. Did that actually happen? Did anybody drop out during early voting? Maybe in the early primary states.

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was mostly taking about primaries. Where people’s picks aren’t as written in concrete and their choice has a great chance to drop out before the primary actually gets to your state. 

Ranked choice ballots would seem to be better way to address that problem rather than removing early voting. 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

4 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Ah. Did that actually happen? Did anybody drop out during early voting? Maybe in the early primary states.

Sure. Happens every year. I think something like 18 or 20 percent of texas votes this year were for someone who dropped out: Pete, Amy K etc. 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Ranked choice ballots would seem to be better way to address that problem rather than removing early voting. 

That would make sense especially in a primary. 

[Huckleberry 32703]

Ranked choice primaries make way too much sense for either party to be smart enough to make it happen. 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Ranked choice ballots would seem to be better way to address that problem rather than removing early voting. 

Yeah--it definitely happened this year when Buttigieg and Klobuchar both dropped out and endorsed Biden two days before the Texas primary (and after early voting had ended).

And I agree that ranked-choice voting in the primaries would address that.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Ranked choice primaries make way too much sense for either party to be smart enough to make it happen. 

Yep. I remember Rubio getting something like 15 percent of the vote in AZ, a winner take all that was the final trump nail on the coffin and it felt like most of his votes wouldn’t have gone to Trump. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

Harris County Clerk has a strong Twitter meme game for a govt agency.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Ranked choice primaries make way too much sense for either party to be smart enough to make it happen. 

How many of those ballots would come back with only one candidate ranked?

[Huckleberry 32703]

Fewer than do currently. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

Harris county voting is accelerating:

 

From 7-9, 8,660 people voted, 4,330 votes per hour.

From 9-11, ~11,000 people voted, 5,500 votes per hour.

From 11-1:30, ~18,000 people voted, 7,200 per hour. 

The overall mix is 5,900 votes per hour. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Harris county voting is accelerating:

 

From 7-9, 8,660 people voted, 4,330 votes per hour.

From 9-11, ~11,000 people voted, 5,500 votes per hour.

From 11-1:30, ~27,000 people voted, 10,800 per hour. 

The overall mix is 5,900 votes per hour. 

8660+11000+27000=38280?

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

8660+11000+27000=38280?

Good point. Haha, hold on - recalculating. That last one was wrong because I'm dumb. 18,000 voted from 11 to 1:30. The overall mix was right though - 38,280 votes over 6.5 hours = 5,889.231.

[Planet Houston 4923]

33 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--it definitely happened this year when Buttigieg and Klobuchar both dropped out and endorsed Biden two days before the Texas primary (and after early voting had ended).

And I agree that ranked-choice voting in the primaries would address that.

Warren was still on the ticket during early voting. I “wasted” my vote but I’m still glad I cast a ballot for her. Ranked choices would fix this in a primary, I agree. 

[Huckleberry 32703]

They tweeted a total of 42,600 at 1:55 yesterday so it's a hair behind today. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

They tweeted a total of 42,600 at 1:55 yesterday so it's a hair behind today. 

Only if the pace doesn't continue to accelerate from 1:30 to 1:55 pm. Granted, it would have to jump up to 9,000 an hour. 

que it's over 9,000! meme. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Dahobbs