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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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Bruh Man
Bruh Man

The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

Aqua Buddha
Aqua Buddha

Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49326

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

It’s gonna be close but at this point Biden is the slight favorite in Texas.

Oh? You downgrading your earlier and frequent predictions of a Biden landslide in Texas, are you?

youre as predictable on this topic as brisket seeing a beautiful sunrise and feeling the need to cut himself. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Oh? You downgrading your earlier and frequent predictions of a Biden landslide in Texas, are you?

youre as predictable o that topic at this point as brisket seeing a beautiful sunrise and feeling the need to cut himself. 

Huh? I never predicted a landslide Biden victory in Texas. That’s Bullshit. In fact I only put up $500 on it with Anastasis if he gave me odds, which he did.
 

I predicted Biden would win Texas. I stand by that. So what exactly are you talking about?

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

well, we were at the voting floor, so we really can only go up. but yeah, you're probably right

Exactly. We are a huge state where nobody voted, last in the country in fact,  and more and more people kept moving in. The possibilities with that are huge.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49326

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Huh? I never predicted a landslide Biden victory in Texas. That’s Bullshit. In fact I only put up $500 on it with Anastasis if he gave me odds, which he did.
 

I predicted Biden would win Texas. I stand by that. So what exactly are you talking about?

Oh for fucks sake, I’m teasing you.

But you have made a firm pronouncement about once a week how Biden is winning Texas, man. You’re firmly out on that limb and you aren’t shy about it. And good for you man. But that means you might get some ribbing.  It’s just a little rubbing, Harry. And Rubbin’ is racin’.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Oh for fucks sake, I’m teasing you.

But you have made a firm pronouncement about once a week how Biden is winning Texas, man. You’re firmly out on that limb and you aren’t shy about it. And good for you man. But that means you might get some ribbing.  It’s just a little rubbing, Harry. And Rubbin’ is racin’.

No worries my man. The nature of the net is context can be lost just like on the bathroom wall. Apparently I failed at that once again.

You are right I have been pretty confident about Biden winning Texas. And if I’m wrong, I will be the first person on here to admit it and will have to pay Anastasis his ill gotten gains. It sure aint no lock.

But Texas never liked trump. Hell nobody in Texas liked Hillary and she still only lost by 9 points. That was way closer than any other race.

If John Cornyn was running for president he would probably win Texas. If George W. Bush was running for president in Texas he would win in a landslide. Overall it’s still a republican state, if not by much.

But Donald J. Trump is running for president, the suburban women in Texas hate him, and like the old pace picante commercial used to say, “Get a rope.” 

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Bookman

Bookman 4754

Posted
Posted

It would be awesome if Texas goes blue now. Not just for the Presidential election; 20 years of far-right state governance is enough.

538 talked about it a bit today:

Quote

Of all the states where Republicans are in danger of losing their grip on state government, Texas would be the most consequential. Democrats would gain a seat at the table in not only policymaking that affects 27.9 million people, but also the drawing of almost 40 congressional districts in the upcoming redistricting process. (More on that next week.)

Just a few years ago, Republicans losing control of Austin would have been unthinkable — but in the 2018 midterms, Democrats flipped 12 seats in the Texas state House, meaning the party needs to net only nine more seats to take control of the chamber. And thanks to Texas’s recent leftward shift (especially in the suburbs), there’s a clear path for them to do it: In 2018, Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke carried exactly nine state House seats that are still held by Republicans — showing that those districts are willing to vote Democratic in the right circumstances — and he came close in several more. In total, Democrats are targeting about 22 seats in the chamber, though they also need to defend the 12 they picked up in 2018.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-democrats-win-full-control-of-more-state-governments-than-republicans/

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18192

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

No worries my man. The nature of the net is context can be lost just like on the bathroom wall. Apparently I failed at that once again.

You are right I have been pretty confident about Biden winning Texas. And if I’m wrong, I will be the first person on here to admit it and will have to pay Anastasis his ill gotten gains. It sure aint no lock.

But Texas never liked trump. Hell nobody in Texas liked Hillary and she still only lost by 9 points. That was way closer than any other race.

If John Cornyn was running for president he would probably win Texas. If George W. Bush was running for president in Texas he would win in a landslide. Overall it’s still a republican state, if not by much.

But Donald J. Trump is running for president, the suburban women in Texas hate him, and like the old pace picante commercial used to say, “Get a rope.” 

If GWB would come out and endorse Biden, Biden would win Texas going away. I'm really disappointed in him that he has not. And I say this as a guy that actually liked GWB. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

If GWB would come out and endorse Biden, Biden would win Texas going away. I'm really disappointed in him that he has not. And I say this as a guy that actually liked GWB. 

It is disappointing and I don’t understand exactly why he hasn’t. What does he have to lose? 

I guess my question has an answer that is in fact disappointing. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53333

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:
1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:
I'm no math genius, but a 133% increase over last cycle is a METRIC FUCKTON of new voters. I can't imagine anywhere near half of them are voting for dotard

If we add 3M voters this cycle and push Biden to a win I'm buying beer at Great Heights for any Surly poster who is parched from the last four years.

Would you be willing to ship a case of fireman’s 4 to me in a red state?

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

Posted
Posted
 

I'm calling bullshit. That'd be such an unprecedented expansion of the size of the electorate in Texas that it's hard to find words to describe it.

 

If I'm wrong, which I'd love to be, I'll eat as much crow as I have to, but no way. 10 million feels right.

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18192

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:
1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:
I'm no math genius, but a 133% increase over last cycle is a METRIC FUCKTON of new voters. I can't imagine anywhere near half of them are voting for dotard

If we add 3M voters this cycle and push Biden to a win I'm buying beer at Great Heights for any Surly poster who is parched from the last four years.

Deal. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I'm calling bullshit. That'd be such an unprecedented expansion of the size of the electorate in Texas that it's hard to find words to describe it.

If I'm wrong, which I'd love to be, I'll eat as much crow as I have to, but no way.

I agree that number is hard to believe. It would be totally unprecedented. The source seems legit though, but maybe it’s just a guess?
 

But it doesn’t even have to be that high to swing it. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53333

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

I agree that number is hard to believe. It would be totally unprecedented. The source seems legit though, but maybe it’s just a guess?
 

But it doesn’t even have to be that high to swing it. 

Fair to assume that 1 million new voters would break 60/40 at least for a net of 200,000 to Biden?

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

Posted
Posted
Fair to assume that 1 million new voters would break 60/40 at least for a net of 200,000 to Biden?
It might be in this thread but somewhere it was sourced that the 11 "whole foods" counties (essentially DFW, Houston, San Antonio, Austin) added 765k registered voters and the rest of the state added like 300k. Those 11 counties will go about 60-40. But the rest of the state won't, so the net is probably less.
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Texas73

Texas73 422

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:
Fair to assume that 1 million new voters would break 60/40 at least for a net of 200,000 to Biden?

It might be in this thread but somewhere it was sourced that the 11 "whole foods" counties (essentially DFW, Houston, San Antonio, Austin) added 765k registered voters and the rest of the state added like 300k. Those 11 counties will go about 60-40. But the rest of the state won't, so the net is probably less.

If and it is a big IF there are 3 million more Texas voters in 2020 than in 2016 that doesn't mean 3 million newly registered voters. It means a shit-ton of people who haven't voted before got up off their asses and voted coupled with the newly registered). 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90548

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I'm no math genius, but a 133% increase over last cycle is a METRIC FUCKTON of new voters. I can't imagine anywhere near half of them are voting for dotard

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

It’s gonna be close but at this point Biden is the slight favorite in Texas.

So how many olds have died since 2016? 

 

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90548

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

It is disappointing and I don’t understand exactly why he hasn’t. What does he have to lose? 

I guess my question has an answer that is in fact disappointing. 

It's not like Trump has attacked family members of his....or that a nephew is going to have the Trump faction of the GOP coming after him in the future.....

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18192

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5 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

If and it is a big IF there are 3 million more Texas voters in 2020 than in 2016 that doesn't mean 3 million newly registered voters. It means a shit-ton of people who haven't voted before got up off their asses and voted coupled with the newly registered). 

It would also mean that we continued this pace through the end of early voting and had a normal election day turnout. That just doesn't seem likely, and right now is just barely in the spectrum of possible. We would do really well to get to 65%+ statewide turnout. 

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Helobious

Helobious 9755

Posted
Posted

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 

Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53333

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 

Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

You’re  right, of course. I’m surprised you are posting while the Yankees are playing game 1 of the World Series. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18192

Posted
Posted
Just now, Helobious said:

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 

Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

There are over 1 million more registered voters than 2016. Even at our normal 58% turnout you're still talking about 600,000 additional votes. Were going to have at least that many more. I think a million is actually pretty likely. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

If and it is a big IF there are 3 million more Texas voters in 2020 than in 2016 that doesn't mean 3 million newly registered voters. It means a shit-ton of people who haven't voted before got up off their asses and voted coupled with the newly registered). 

Yeah, there were a little under 2 million registrations since 2016 so mathematically it would have to include a huge influx of previous non-participants even if every single one of those new registrations voted (they won't).

That's kind of the point. It'd be an absolutely insane number. 12 million would be 70+ percent turnout among registered voters. That hasn't happened since 1992, when the electorate was less than half the size it is now (in fact there were only 12 million eligible adults). That's also the last time we even exceeded 60 percent. Since 1996 we've been in the mid to high 50s for presidential elections. 12 million would be absolutely astronomical, in the history books 100 years from now type turnout.

FWIW, last I saw 90 percent of early voters had a TX voting history. This was fairly early on though. Not sure if that is still the case.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah, there were a little under 2 million registrations since 2016 so mathematically it would have to include a huge influx of previous non-participants even if every single one of those new registrations voted (they won't).

That's kind of the point. It'd be an absolutely insane number. 12 million would be 70+ percent turnout among registered voters. That hasn't happened since 1992, when the electorate was less than half the size it is now (in fact there were only 12 million eligible adults). That's also the last time we even exceeded 60 percent. Since 1996 we've been in the mid to high 50s for presidential elections. 12 million would be absolutely astronomical, in the history books 100 years from now type turnout.

FWIW, last I saw 90 percent of early voters had a TX voting history. This was fairly early on though. Not sure if that is still the case.

If 70 percent happened in Texas in 1992 when Bill Clinton won it can certainly happen this year.

if 70 percent happens then that’s 3 million more voters and Biden wins.

I don’t think it’s that high, but I also don’t think it needs to be that high. It is possible though. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18192

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

If 70 percent happened in Texas in 1992 when Bill Clinton won it can certainly happen this year.

if 70 percent happens then that’s 3 million more voters and Biden wins.

I don’t think it’s that high, but I also don’t think it needs to be that high. It is possible though. 

We would actually need 74% turnout. That is technically possible right now, but it really is the tail end of possible. 

In other news:

 

I'm really surprised the mail in ballot returns stayed above 5 figures today. If that keeps happening along with this in person turnout, maybe 74% is more likely than I think. 

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 

Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

Want to make a bet on vote increase? 

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Pasken

Pasken 1310

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 

Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

When someone calls something complex “common sense” then it’s a pretty good indication they don’t know what the fuck they are talking about.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

Posted
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Pasken said:

When someone calls something complex “common sense” then it’s a pretty good indication they don’t know what the fuck they are talking about.

Poker is a great example of this. The “experts” you don’t want to listen to are the ones that tell you there is ONE common sense way to play a hand. The real experts will start almost every answer with “it’s complicated and depends on factors”. It can be frustrating but those are the guys that you want to listen to. The guys that can explain why an apparent bad play can be good when considering all the complexities. 

Edited by Irieguy
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Victor Lazlo

Victor Lazlo 1811

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I'm no math genius, but a 133% increase over last cycle is a METRIC FUCKTON of new voters. I can't imagine anywhere near half of them are voting for dotard

You are correct, sir. You are definitely not a math genius.

Start with 12M, add 3M. That would be a 25% increase.

 

 

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106628

Posted
Posted
Wait a minute--you're not voting?  In the Great Election to determine whether we will have a Republic going forward, you're voting "present"?

LOL, not willing to do the smallest thing to help end the menace that your party brought. Figures. 


Sic semper Republicans. Remember, this is what they are. And never, ever trust them with any power again. When the republic needs them to act in its interest, they stay on-brand: pure moral cowardice.

Sorry--it was just the first time I had heard this.  I didn't realize that it had been previously litigated.
 


Yeah...but it remains as pathetic and indefensible as it ever was.

I don’t know that anything the gop is doing rises to the level of strategy 


Standing pat and counting on moral cowards to come back home is a sound strategy. It’s already worked on you.


youre as predictable on this topic as brisket seeing a beautiful sunrise and feeling the need to cut himself. 


Dude. I LOVE sunrise. Prettiest part of the day. I mean, I DO wish it would move to about 10:00, so I could sleep in and enjoy it.
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