2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Victor Lazlo 1769]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

But what if you start with 9 million... 

Good catch. My bad, I read it wrong.

Nevertheless, it would be a 33% increase. Not 133%.

Yes, 33% increase will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

[Huckleberry 32704]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I learned long ago at Barking Carnival that it’s dumb to get ahead of the math dorks. 
 

paging @Huckleberry

Oh hai

Just got to the computer after coaching a baseball game tonight then taking my son for some celebratory food after another bomb.

EV will tail off but the reality is that nobody has any idea how much, and more relevantly how much of an impact on actual Election Day turnout it will have.

Early estimate of tomorrow's report on today's voting:

Based on the below:

Orange cells are estimates reached by applying the day-over-day percentage change from the reported counties to the ones who haven't reported yet. Yellow cells are just the previous day's numbers carried forward as those counties haven't reported mail ballots received for 10/20 yet.

[Wulaw Horn 18983]

35 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

 

Sic semper Republicans. Remember, this is what they are. And never, ever trust them with any power again. When the republic needs them to act in its interest, they stay on-brand: pure moral cowardice.



Yeah...but it remains as pathetic and indefensible as it ever was.



Standing pat and counting on moral cowards to come back home is a sound strategy. It’s already worked on you.



Dude. I LOVE sunrise. Prettiest part of the day. I mean, I DO wish it would move to about 10:00, so I could sleep in and enjoy it.

 

 

And yet you’ve voted for a republican more recently than I have. Funny that. It’s not my party. You are being intentionally dim. It’s your thing, whatever, but it’s really tiresome. 

[Brisketexan 104630]

And yet you’ve voted for a republican more recently than I have. Funny that. It’s not my party. You are being intentionally dim. It’s your thing, whatever, but it’s really tiresome. 

You’re the one posting about how you’re sitting in the starting blocks, just waiting for the chance to come running back to them, not me. They can count on you, and that’s why they’ll never really change. They’ll lie, slap on a coat of credibility paint, and you’ll happily vote for them again, knowing that what’s underneath that paint is pure rot.

You are why the GOP will never really change, just slap a coat of paint on.

[RayDog 682]

33 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Oh hai

Just got to the computer after coaching a baseball game tonight then taking my son for some celebratory food after another bomb.

EV will tail off but the reality is that nobody has any idea how much, and more relevantly how much of an impact on actual Election Day turnout it will have.

Early estimate of tomorrow's report on today's voting:

Based on the below:

Orange cells are estimates reached by applying the day-over-day percentage change from the reported counties to the ones who haven't reported yet. Yellow cells are just the previous day's numbers carried forward as those counties haven't reported mail ballots received for 10/20 yet.

That is over halfway to the 65% turnout that is needed for a Biden win. 65% statewide would be 11 million.

If early voting stopped today and the same number of people who voted on election day in 2016 vote on election day this time,  there would be 10 million votes. Each day is a step closer to the 11 million mark.

[Huckleberry 32704]

Texas statewide should have gone over 5 million voters today.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Texas statewide should have gone over 5 million voters today.

Ugh, I'm really drunk and super high; please define should. I'm not connecting dots

[Huckleberry 32704]

Meaning it will be close but I think it happened. 

[G650 14108]

9 hours ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:

10 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I'm no math genius, but a 133% increase over last cycle is a METRIC FUCKTON of new voters. I can't imagine anywhere near half of them are voting for dotard

If we add 3M voters this cycle and push Biden to a win I'm buying beer at Great Heights for any Surly poster who is parched from the last four years.

I'd fly in for that

[gmr548 16517]

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 
Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

Now this is too low of an estimate. 100-200k would be very small growth in the electorate between cycles.

[hookem2010 2600]

Took the wife to vote last night for the first time in 8 years (for her). Wise county going blue, y'all!

[DigglerontheHoof 21065]

10 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

If GWB would come out and endorse Biden, Biden would win Texas going away. I'm really disappointed in him that he has not. And I say this as a guy that actually liked GWB. 

Agree 100%.  I always thought of W as misguided but basically a decent human being.  However, looks like he's no better than Cruz, Abbott, Patrick and the rest.  Very disappointing. 

[BradInATX 9208]

George W Bush needlessly killed hundreds of thousands of people because Saddam disrespected his daddy. Fuck him.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

12m voting in Texas is extremely high. Has anyone shown the math or polls of how that could be hit? I believe that would require over 70% of RV voting when we’re normally below 60.

[immamac 42522]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

12m voting in Texas is extremely high. Has anyone shown the math or polls of how that could be hit? I believe that would require over 70% of RV voting when we’re normally below 60.

It's almost like MORE people will vote in this election than any other before. What a concept!

[Texaspython 231]

50 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Agree 100%.  I always thought of W as misguided but basically a decent human being.  However, looks like he's no better than Cruz, Abbott, Patrick and the rest.  Very disappointing. 

W is a Republican first and foremost, always will be. Sure, he isn’t Donald but his endgame has always been power concentrated in the Republican Party. The way he tolerated Rove’s tactics makes me not have an ounce of respect for him. The whisper campaign about Ann being a lesbian and the deplorable attacks on McCain’s child in SC were unforgivable. Not to mention the  Iraq war.

Sure, he’s better than Donald, low bar. He’s like many Repubs, just waiting to get past Donald and retake their party. Then it’ll be the same themes as Donald just in a much softer version.

[Bateshorn 9905]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

George W Bush needlessly killed hundreds of thousands of people because Saddam disrespected his daddy. Fuck him.

I mean, not wrong.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

2 hours ago, G650 said:

I'd fly in for that

Username checks out.  

[BradInATX 9208]

36 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

W is a Republican first and foremost, always will be. Sure, he isn’t Donald but his endgame has always been power concentrated in the Republican Party. The way he tolerated Rove’s tactics makes me not have an ounce of respect for him. The whisper campaign about Ann being a lesbian and the deplorable attacks on McCain’s child in SC were unforgivable. Not to mention the  Iraq war.

Sure, he’s better than Donald, low bar. He’s like many Repubs, just waiting to get past Donald and retake their party. Then it’ll be the same themes as Donald just in a much softer version.

Yep, what Bush did to McCain is on par with Trump making fun of that disabled reporter, if not worse. He also killed 400,000-500,000 people with the Iraq war. Trump's terrible handling of Covid probably cost 100k lives (many were going to die no matter what). And the lives lost in Iraq were mostly young people. Bush is just as bad or worse than Trump, but he's got a nice smile and he talks like a down-home Texan and drives a truck and owns guns. Having a late-life existential crisis where he tries to assuage his murder-guilt by painting soldiers doesn't excuse what he did.

Let's not let obnoxious Donald whitewash over the terrible things others have done.

Edited October 21, 2020 by BradInATX

[Thatguy 8507]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yep, what Bush did to McCain is on par with Trump making fun of that disabled reporter, if not worse. He killed 400,000-500,000 people with the Iraq war. Trump's terrible handling of Covid probably cost 100k lives (many were going to die no matter what). And the lives lost in Iraq were mostly young people. Bush is just as bad or worse than Trump, but he's got a nice smile and he talks like a down-home Texan and drives a truck and owns guns. Having a late-life existential crisis where he tries to assuage his murder-guilt by painting soldiers doesn't excuse what he did.

Let's not let obnoxious Donald whitewash over the terrible things others have done.

skrong to pretty skrong here.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Even after four years of watching this, people don’t still fully appreciate the damage Donald Trump is doing to the foundational pillars of a functional republic. GWB never flirted with that sort of shit.

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

12m voting in Texas is extremely high. Has anyone shown the math or polls of how that could be hit? I believe that would require over 70% of RV voting when we’re normally below 60.

5.3 million have already voted with 700k and 600k the last 2 days.  So if you make an aggressive prediction,  you could guess 7 million this weekend and 8.5 by the end of early voting. Almost 4.7 million voted on election day 2016, so someone could imagine 3.5 million voting on election day.  Right now we just don't know,  but someone can certainly fantasize about 71% 12 million turnout. 

Williamson and Collin topped 67% in 2016, with Travis,  Denton, and Fort Bend over 64%. Williamson, Collin, Denton, Travis,  Galveston,  Brazoria,  Lubbock, and Hays all appear to be on pace to break 70%. Harris, Dallas,  and others should break 65% as they are halfway there. That is why I say 11 million is possible.

 

[bolverk 29405]

Here's a map of the turnout as of yesterday according to the SOS website. The Hill Country, Wilco, North DFW suburbs, are coming on strong.

Statewide, 5.3 million have already voted which puts us at 31.3 percent turnout so far.

 

 

 

Edited October 21, 2020 by bolverk
South Texas needs to get off its ass.

[Dahobbs 17449]

 

Roughly the same early morning numbers as Monday. Based on the numbers we've seen, it seems the most productive period has been from 11-2 (lunch hour crowd). 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

11 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Here's a map of the turnout as of yesterday according to the SOS website. The Hill Country, Wilco, North DFW suburbs, are coming on strong.

Statewide, 5.3 million have already voted which puts us at 31.3 percent turnout so far.

 

 

 

I like these west Texas counties hanging at 10 percent.  NO ONE LIVES THERE.  So like 6 people voted in those counties?

[thepop 4409]

Texas Hispanics letting us down 

[Pancho 44487]

1 minute ago, thepop said:

Texas Hispanics letting us down 

But Texas White folks lifting us up???

[bolverk 29405]

1 minute ago, thepop said:

Texas Hispanics letting us down 

I'll update the map every couple fo days so we can keep track.

[The Dog 43808]

20 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Here's a map of the turnout as of yesterday according to the SOS website. The Hill Country, Wilco, North DFW suburbs, are coming on strong.

Statewide, 5.3 million have already voted which puts us at 31.3 percent turnout so far.

 

 

 

Got a link to this? 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

15 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Here's a map of the turnout as of yesterday according to the SOS website. The Hill Country, Wilco, North DFW suburbs, are coming on strong.

Statewide, 5.3 million have already voted which puts us at 31.3 percent turnout so far.

 

 

 

As the southern counties always have such low turnout, I've wondered if these counties are slower to purge their voter rolls of inactive (for decades) or potentially dead people, in comparison to other counties. At some level, purging dead people from the voter rolls costs time (money) and doesn't really impact anything. 

Or does the local party in power shy away from encouraging voting because if it ain't broke, why fix it attitude?

Or do people in the southern counties love to register but never vote? I could understand someone not wanting to participate in the voting as they see it not impacting then. But then why did you register?

[bolverk 29405]

Sure, I'm in a drive thru but will when I get back home.

[bolverk 29405]

13 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Got a link to this? 

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do

Select 2020 General Election in the drop down. Then select Early Voting by Date and scroll to yesterday.

I copy/pasta'd the table into a spreadsheet and made the map.

[bolverk 29405]

15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As the southern counties always have such low turnout, I've wondered if these counties are slower to purge their voter rolls of inactive (for decades) or potentially dead people, in comparison to other counties. At some level, purging dead people from the voter rolls costs time (money) and doesn't really impact anything. 

Or does the local party in power shy away from encouraging voting because if it ain't broke, why fix it attitude?

Or do people in the southern counties love to register but never vote? I could understand someone not wanting to participate in the voting as they see it not impacting then. But then why did you register?

I'm sure dissertations have be written on it. One way to get a clue would be to compare each county's registered voter figures to those of eligible voters.

[The Dog 43808]

5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do

Select 2020 General Election in the drop down. Then select Early Voting by Date and scroll to yesterday.

I copy/pasta'd the table into a spreadsheet and made the map.

OK thanks was looking for the map. 

[bolverk 29405]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

OK thanks was looking for the map. 

Yeah, I've been frustrated that no source that I know of is providing one for Texas, so I figured I'd do it myself. They've made it easy to make maps in spreadsheets now a days.

[Dahobbs 17449]

15 minutes ago, thepop said:

Texas Hispanics letting us down 

It isn't all bad. Yes, it lags the rest of the state, but it always does. The question is what improvement is there. A few examples:

Starr County

• 2016 14.87% of RV voted early, 36.46% total turnout
• 2018 21% voted early, 36% total turnout
• 2020 20.92% have voted early so far 

Hidalgo

• 2016 40.68% voted early, 51.1% total turnout
• 2018 30% voted early, 43% total turnout
• 2020 27.56% have voted early so far

Cameron

• 2016, 31% voted early, 46% total turnout
• 2018 25% voted early, 39% total turnout
• 2020 26.1% have voted early so far

They are all on pace to exceed their 2016 %. 

[Bruh Man 3160]

56 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Here's a map of the turnout as of yesterday according to the SOS website. The Hill Country, Wilco, North DFW suburbs, are coming on strong.

Statewide, 5.3 million have already voted which puts us at 31.3 percent turnout so far.

 

 

 

Yeah nothing will change in this state until Hispanic areas in South Texas wake up. El Paso is disappointing as well. Beto?

[Vito Andolini 9112]

Jeff Davis County has one helluva GOTV program. Just load up the registered voters among the 2,252 residents in your minivan and drive them to the polls.

[TexArcher 37524]

So about 8.5 million votes were cast in 2016.

We're at 5.3 million early votes in 2020.  I think we're going over 10 million.  I would assume that much of the increase is due to backlash against Trump and more Gen Z registered.  But I don't know.  Probably some of the increase is also country white folks who stayed home last time because they knew Trump had it anyway and now they're all riled up about BLM riots and having their guns taken away.

Trump won by about 800k votes in 2016.  Is Texas really in play for Biden?  I find it hard to believe.  But I want to.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

14 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

If GWB would come out and endorse Biden, Biden would win Texas going away. I'm really disappointed in him that he has not. And I say this as a guy that actually liked GWB. 

I have had for some weeks the sneaking suspicion that GWB is keeping his powder dry in case he needs to come in and be the voice of Republican reason to forestall a civil war after the election.

[bolverk 29405]

24 minutes ago, Vito Andolini said:

Jeff Davis County has one helluva GOTV program. Just load up the registered voters among the 2,252 residents in your minivan and drive them to the polls.

Not to threadshit, but I still say we need to change the name of that fucking county. It's fucking embarrassing.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

19 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

So about 8.5 million votes were cast in 2016.

We're at 5.3 million early votes in 2020.  I think we're going over 10 million.  I would assume that much of the increase is due to backlash against Trump and more Gen Z registered.  But I don't know.  Probably some of the increase is also country white folks who stayed home last time because they knew Trump had it anyway and now they're all riled up about BLM riots and having their guns taken away.

Trump won by about 800k votes in 2016.  Is Texas really in play for Biden?  I find it hard to believe.  But I want to.

10m seems to be in play. The idea of 12m seems a bit far-fetched to me. I think some people are working on the assumption that RV% will follow normal patterns including election day being extremely large. My guess is that election day will be historically low, as a percentage, this year as many people are deciding to vote early especially given the expanded early vote.

but who knows. maybe it will be 10m, 12m or higher. or lower. I'm hedging all bets.

[washparkhorn 9935]

1 hour ago, thepop said:

Texas Hispanics letting us down 

Looks like Bernie Sanders may be needed to increase the enthusiasm and voter turnout. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/latinos-boosted-sanders-super-tuesday-lesson-biden-campaign-n1149511

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

Didn't longhornderek have some extremely bullish takes from '18 that turned out to be wrong?

Texas didn't all of sudden turn into Minnesota. MN is the only state to exceed 72% turnout in the last three elections. 

Texas is still an ass backwards state full of dumb ignorant people who don't take civics seriously. I'll be shocked if we pass 10.5M.

 

 

[Dahobbs 17449]

23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

10m seems to be in play. The idea of 12m seems a bit far-fetched to me. I think some people are working on the assumption that RV% will follow normal patterns including election day being extremely large. My guess is that election day will be historically low, as a percentage, this year as many people are deciding to vote early especially given the expanded early vote.

but who knows. maybe it will be 10m, 12m or higher. or lower. I'm hedging all bets.

I think 10 million is almost guaranteed. We get there with the same turnout as 2016 (59.4%). Earlier I had been using old registration #s of 16.2 million, but we are actually slightly above 16.9 million. At this point, I'd be a little surprised if we didn't hit 61% turnout. WAG, but I would set an over under at 64%. 

[Dahobbs 17449]

 

Moving slow this morning. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

My wife, son and I went and voted in South Austin this morning.  This week hasn't been as busy as last week, but the place we went pretty consistently has between 50 and 100 people in line most of the time.

[Huckleberry 32704]

Actual final report for Tuesday

Using 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 2,710,016 (50.9%)
Biden - 2,615,016 (49.1%)
 

[The Royal We 3066]

Thank you for posting Huck.  This is some fascinating data to watch roll in.

[bolverk 29405]

19 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

My wife, son and I went and voted in South Austin this morning.  This week hasn't been as busy as last week, but the place we went pretty consistently has between 50 and 100 people in line most of the time.

Are you talking about the one at Brodie & Slaughter? If so, good to know because that's mine too. I'll like go tomorrow afternoon.