2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Harris County is worried that all of the drive-thru votes could potentially be invalidated by the TX supreme court.  I assume if Texas throws out those votes, the voters would have an opportunity to vote again.  70K is the estimate.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hidalgo-asks-Abbott-to-confirm-drive-thru-voting-15667812.php

Edit: If this happens, this is almost 100% on Harris County. They KNEW this was a questionable tactic that could get the votes invalidated. They should have at least warned voters this was a possibiliy.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[TexasEd 8064]

I don't speak Vietnamese but I'm pretty sure I recognize it when I see it/hear it.  

 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

24 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Harris County is worried that all of the drive-thru votes could potentially be invalidated by the TX supreme court.  I assume if Texas throws out those votes, the voters would have an opportunity to vote again.  70K is the estimate.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hidalgo-asks-Abbott-to-confirm-drive-thru-voting-15667812.php

Edit: If this happens, this is almost 100% on Harris County. They KNEW this was a questionable tactic that could get the votes invalidated. They should have at least warned voters this was a possibiliy.

I could see the USSC making them stop, but I doubt they would invalidate votes cast in good faith. Haven't they already ruled as such in other states? 

[SydneyCarton 47885]

26 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Harris County is worried that all of the drive-thru votes could potentially be invalidated by the TX supreme court.  I assume if Texas throws out those votes, the voters would have an opportunity to vote again.  70K is the estimate.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hidalgo-asks-Abbott-to-confirm-drive-thru-voting-15667812.php

Edit: If this happens, this is almost 100% on Harris County. They KNEW this was a questionable tactic that could get the votes invalidated. They should have at least warned voters this was a possibiliy.

I disagree with this take Vehemently. And a letter was sent to someone yesterday, I assume it was the county clerk. It literally lines how it follows every single requirement and rule for voting. There were no rules it has to be tied to a permanent structure (for example, it is legal for polling booths to be located outside). The only requirement is that the erection/booths need to be tied to a permanent location (like a church or a fucking stadium), and they adhered to that. If they reject this it's flat out electioneering, period.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

44 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I disagree with this take Vehemently. And a letter was sent to someone yesterday, I assume it was the county clerk. It literally lines how it follows every single requirement and rule for voting. There were no rules it has to be tied to a permanent structure (for example, it is legal for polling booths to be located outside). The only requirement is that the erection/booths need to be tied to a permanent location (like a church or a fucking stadium), and they adhered to that. If they reject this it's flat out electioneering, period.  

This was quietly mentioned by harris county as a risk prior to voting. Harris county should have been clearer with the state whether it was allowable or not. They went forward daring Abbott to act.

[thepop 4409]

 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

Can't even believe they were trying to get those votes tossed.   

Wait, yeah, I can.

[Dahobbs 17449]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Harris County is worried that all of the drive-thru votes could potentially be invalidated by the TX supreme court.  I assume if Texas throws out those votes, the voters would have an opportunity to vote again.  70K is the estimate.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hidalgo-asks-Abbott-to-confirm-drive-thru-voting-15667812.php

Edit: If this happens, this is almost 100% on Harris County. They KNEW this was a questionable tactic that could get the votes invalidated. They should have at least warned voters this was a possibiliy.

Dude, you're so fucking wrong. (1) There isn't anything questionable about it (2) stop being a bitch and read the link you sent, (3) there isn't anyway votes would be invalidated even if the Texas Supreme Court didn't reject the challenge as I doubt there is anyway to differentiate those votes from walk in votes at the same precinct. 

Quote

The Texas Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a request by Republicans to halt drive-thru voting in Harris County, ending a chaotic several days where local Democrats feared the court would invalidate more than 70,000 ballots already cast.

Here is another link, non-paywall:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/22/drive-thru-voting-texas-harris-county/

 

I'll add: the GOP was going to challenge anything and everything. To bitch about a program that was actually developed in coordination with the secretary of state is fucking asinine. If the GOP could find a smidgeon of daylight, it'd ask to invalidate all votes for Biden. It doesn't make those votes questionable, it makes the GOP a group of fucking assholes. Stop giving them cover. 

 

Edited October 22, 2020 by Dahobbs
I see that the link was probably updated since you sent. You're still being a bitch.

[Dahobbs 17449]

 

 

 

[HOOKEM4 5023]

Surly needs to dig deep into the wreath fund and buy the Harris County media person a beer. They are killing it.

[RayDog 682]

Since TX-31 is Williamson and Bell it is easier to monitor than most seats and Williamson has nearly 168k votes at nearly 45% turnout while Bell nearly 54k at less than 25%. That bodes well for Donna Imam since in 2018 Williamson went Democratic but not enough to give MJ Hegar the win.

[AngryDragon 270]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Aren’t both of these crappy trump counties?
 

hope I’m wrong.

Woudn't be surprised to see Biden take a narrow win in Collin. Collin has a big minority population(Asians) and there's finally been an urgency to vote. Most of my social circle are college educated professionals who are voting for the first time this cycle. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

4 minutes ago, AngryDragon said:

Woudn't be surprised to see Biden take a narrow win in Collin. Collin has a big minority population(Asians) and there's finally been an urgency to vote. Most of my social circle are college educated professionals who are voting for the first time this cycle. 

My folks live in Collin and they voted yesterday. That's a -2 for trump as my mom voted for him the first time and my dad (supposedly) for Johnson. They are both now never trumpers

[AngryDragon 270]

2 hours ago, TexasEd said:

I don't speak Vietnamese but I'm pretty sure I recognize it when I see it/hear it.  

 

 

They need to keep the Vietnamese at home unless it's the younger generation. The old generation overwhelmingly skew Trump for some unknown reason. They're the Cubans of the Asians.

Edited October 22, 2020 by AngryDragon

[Ghost of LL 15492]

8 minutes ago, AngryDragon said:

Woudn't be surprised to see Biden take a narrow win in Collin. Collin has a big minority population(Asians) and there's finally been an urgency to vote. Most of my social circle are college educated professionals who are voting for the first time this cycle. 

So I have to tell you--and @Brisketexan can back me up on this--before the 2016 election I said Trump would win 55% in Collin County.  He got 55.62%.  I do have to acknowledge that I didn't see 4% going to Johnson and damned near 2% going to Stein and other write-ins.  But still, . . . .

I think Collin County is really very interesting, because it's that suburban thing that we're seeing all over the country.  It's a lot more diverse than it was 20 years ago.  And damned if a lot of white women aren't pissed.  But there's still a huge number of white, educated "I got mine; fuck you" voters there, too.  There's a metric fuckton of them.

I think Trump wins Collin County.  But it's not a huge win.  He won Collin by 60,000 votes last time; I bet it's fewer than 30,000 this time.  He's going to get right around 50% with Biden getting somewhere around 48%.  He might even win it with less than a majority.  But I do think Trump wins the county.

I'd love to be wrong, though.

[SimonBolivar 10932]

7 minutes ago, AngryDragon said:

They need to keep the Vietnamese at home unless it's the younger generation. The old generation overwhelmingly skew Trump for some unknown reason. They're the Cubans of the Asians.

Same reason as the Cubans. Mid-Century communism bad and Dem means communists!!!!!!!!1!

[AngryDragon 270]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So I have to tell you--and @Brisketexan can back me up on this--before the 2016 election I said Trump would win 55% in Collin County.  He got 55.62%.  I do have to acknowledge that I didn't see 4% going to Johnson and damned near 2% going to Stein and other write-ins.  But still, . . . .

I think Collin County is really very interesting, because it's that suburban thing that we're seeing all over the country.  It's a lot more diverse than it was 20 years ago.  And damned if a lot of white women aren't pissed.  But there's still a huge number of white, educated "I got mine; fuck you" voters there, too.  There's a metric fuckton of them.

I think Trump wins Collin County.  But it's not a huge win.  He won Collin by 60,000 votes last time; I bet it's fewer than 30,000 this time.  He's going to get right around 50% with Biden getting somewhere around 48%.  He might even win it with less than a majority.  But I do think Trump wins the county.

I'd love to be wrong, though.

I hope you're wrong too. I just hope that the minority vote along with the white women vote will be enough to turn it that last 3% since the 2018 Senate election. 

[TwiceHorn 31288]

The problem with Collin County is that Plano, which is the only community that has much chance of being progressive, is only about a third of the population.

Allen and McKinney account for another quarter or so of the population and are mostly Trumpy types.  Lots of Planoites are Trumpy types.  The rest is typical rural Texas.

 

[TwiceHorn 31288]

18 minutes ago, AngryDragon said:

They need to keep the Vietnamese at home unless it's the younger generation. The old generation overwhelmingly skew Trump for some unknown reason. They're the Cubans of the Asians.

Again, anyone with a close brush with a communist regime is going to buy hard into the SoCIaLisM!! meme.

[JimmyJames 12271]

17 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So I have to tell you--and @Brisketexan can back me up on this--before the 2016 election I said Trump would win 55% in Collin County.  He got 55.62%.  I do have to acknowledge that I didn't see 4% going to Johnson and damned near 2% going to Stein and other write-ins.  But still, . . . .

I think Collin County is really very interesting, because it's that suburban thing that we're seeing all over the country.  It's a lot more diverse than it was 20 years ago.  And damned if a lot of white women aren't pissed.  But there's still a huge number of white, educated "I got mine; fuck you" voters there, too.  There's a metric fuckton of them.

I think Trump wins Collin County.  But it's not a huge win.  He won Collin by 60,000 votes last time; I bet it's fewer than 30,000 this time.  He's going to get right around 50% with Biden getting somewhere around 48%.  He might even win it with less than a majority.  But I do think Trump wins the county.

I'd love to be wrong, though.

If trump loses Collin county he has lost TEXAS fo sho. 
 

Im predicting trump barely wins Collin county, he loses Tarrant and Williamson, and loses Texas by a point.

[JimmyJames 12271]

4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Again, anyone with a close brush with a communist regime is going to buy hard into the SoCIaLisM!! meme.

Yep. Having to escape communists as a kid on a small boat with your mom, leaving your dad behind, knowing that if the other side’s boat finds you that you WILL be shot dead will do that to you.
 

Some of the finest people I’ve met. I’ll give them a pass.

[gmr548 16517]

42 minutes ago, AngryDragon said:

Woudn't be surprised to see Biden take a narrow win in Collin. Collin has a big minority population(Asians) and there's finally been an urgency to vote. Most of my social circle are college educated professionals who are voting for the first time this cycle. 

Trump was +17 in Collin. Now, I do think the battle lines here will much more closely resemble the 2018 senate race. Cruz was +6 in Collin. Biden isn't winning there. If he's so much as within 2-3 points he is going to win the state.

Edited October 22, 2020 by gmr548
Got my number wrong with Cruz

[Ted Lange 16053]

It was 52-42 last time, 800k win for Trump.   Biden will close that gap but find it extremely hard to be that this is anything less than a 2 point several hundred thousand  Trump win.   Hope I am wrong.  
 

 

[Hawndoh 2382]

Well this resident of Collin County voted 100% Dem. I know my wife also voted Biden, not sure about the down ballot stuff.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Educated vote in Texas is going to be interesting.  I think of Collin as Aggy and Sooner, so probably caucus with high school dropouts.  We need to look for UT, UNT, Rice pockets for any of the males to vote D. 

[TexasEd 8064]

1 hour ago, AngryDragon said:

They need to keep the Vietnamese at home unless it's the younger generation. The old generation overwhelmingly skew Trump for some unknown reason. They're the Cubans of the Asians.

Their job is to get people out to vote not keep them home. 

[RayDog 682]

Since Beto lost by 214k to Cruz, Biden may only need an extra 20K go his way in each of the top 11 counties and hold the margins in the rest. Beto lost Collin by 21,811 and Denton by 24,095 with 61.38% and 59.46% respectively. Collin went over 67% in 2016 and should top 70% this time.

Collin should have 65,000+ more votes than 2016 and an additional 65,000 new voters replacing those who died and moved, for 130k that need to be characterized. If the go 60/40 Biden they make up 26,000 and Biden wins Collin. If they go 55/45 Biden then Biden gains 13,000 toward his victory fund, which is still a win. Denton's situation is similar. I think they both go to Biden by a small margin.

Now the bigger Democratic leaning counties Harris, Dallas, and Travis could gain over 220k combined versus 2018. Beto won Travis by 240k with a 64% turnout and 74.3% in his favor. With a 70% turnout and 76.5% of the vote, Biden would win Travis by 325,000 assuming 1.5% go third party. I think 300k is a very reasonable expectation for +60k from Travis alone. Biden should see bigger gains in Harris and Dallas.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

My folks live in Collin and they voted yesterday. That's a -2 for trump as my mom voted for him the first time and my dad (supposedly) for Johnson. They are both now never trumpers

We will spare them in the great Baby Boomer purge of 2025

[TexasEd 8064]

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Yep. Having to escape communists as a kid on a small boat with your mom, leaving your dad behind, knowing that if the other side’s boat finds you that you WILL be shot dead will do that to you.
 

Some of the finest people I’ve met. I’ll give them a pass.

A friend of mine escaped with her mother after she watched her dad executed, she was 7.  And this was after the US had left the war. She is now a UT Grad and Pharmacist.

[Foosters 17734]

1 hour ago, AngryDragon said:

Woudn't be surprised to see Biden take a narrow win in Collin. Collin has a big minority population(Asians) and there's finally been an urgency to vote. Most of my social circle are college educated professionals who are voting for the first time this cycle. 

Username checks out

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

I can always tell a ray dog post here because it’s the rosiest possible scenario. 

[South Austin 52148]

I voted for Biden today in Collin County, so doing my part.

[Hawndoh 2382]

I know a lot of Biden voters in Collin, but the county as a whole still has a lot of very wealthy "I got mine" types in places like Frisco, Allen, Lovejoy... And then a lot of the poor dumb Trump base out in the rural areas.

I'm hoping enough of their wives go Biden to counter them.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

14 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

We will spare them in the great Baby Boomer purge of 2025

They're both in their early 60's, but yeah, i guess they're technically boomers 

[Voldemort86 2259]

I know it was probably seen as the Clinton state most likely to flip, but according to Ralston, Trump is getting obliterated in Nevada so far.

[Goodman 3273]

2 hours ago, AngryDragon said:

They need to keep the Vietnamese at home unless it's the younger generation. The old generation overwhelmingly skew Trump for some unknown reason. They're the Cubans of the Asians.

Hmmm, wonder why they would vote that way. Dunno but they sound racist.

[TwiceHorn 31288]

18 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

I know a lot of Biden voters in Collin, but the county as a whole still has a lot of very wealthy "I got mine" types in places like Frisco, Allen, Lovejoy... And then a lot of the poor dumb Trump base out in the rural areas.

I'm hoping enough of their wives go Biden to counter them.

A lot of obvious covidiots in Collin, even in the southern reaches.  I'm not optimistic.

[Voldemort86 2259]

9 minutes ago, Goodman said:

Hmmm, wonder why they would vote that way. Dunno but they sound racist.

Remember the Vietnam war?  Remember how mean the Vietnamese were to our prisoners of war and how they would set booby traps all over the jungle, and throw their children into our troops camps asking for food while strapping bombs to the kids so the bombs would explode and kill everyone?
 

it could just be the Vietnamese are mean by nature and that’s why they vote republican.
 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

PSA for Shoal Creek Rec Center. (House Park)
went this morning and was in and out in 15 min. 
If you’re central Austin it’s super convenient. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

A lot of obvious covidiots in Collin, even in the southern reaches.  I'm not optimistic.

I do think trump wins Collin county. If he doesn’t he’s toast in Texas. It is probably the most republican oriented suburban vote you can get in Texas. If he can’t win that, he’s done. He will likely win it but Williamson and Tarrant are greater barometers in my opinion. If Trump wins those he wins Texas. He won’t, it just depends on the margins. I think the greater margins in the cities will offset the rural vote. Guess we shall see. 

Edited October 23, 2020 by JimmyJames

[Huckleberry 32704]

Preview of Thursday's report with some estimates

[Larry T. Spider 1741]

Obviously a decline was expected. Is this concerning or about the rate you expected?

[Huckleberry 32704]

I mean I'm flying as blind as everyone else but it's in the neighborhood I expected. My actual biggest surprise this week was how high turnout was on Monday. 

[thepop 4409]

turnout will be relatively low until the last 2 days. Overall turnout will still be higher than 2016 when it's over. No concerns about that.

[RayDog 682]

That is probably still around 500,000 statewide bring the total to between 6.3 and 6.4 million. There is a great shot at being over 7 million by Sunday. Some people put 7 million early votes as the point that things turn to Biden, but I prefer to think it is 8 million to be safer. 

[Valmy77 13094]

4 hours ago, RayDog said:

Since TX-31 is Williamson and Bell it is easier to monitor than most seats and Williamson has nearly 168k votes at nearly 45% turnout while Bell nearly 54k at less than 25%. That bodes well for Donna Imam since in 2018 Williamson went Democratic but not enough to give MJ Hegar the win.

Donna will be great in Congress. I sure hope she pulls it out over Carter. I am not my hopes up though. 

[Hank Kingsley 20711]

The final numbers for today are pretty dang good. 

 

[Hank Kingsley 20711]

Harris County will reach 1 million votes tomorrow, with another full week of early voting, then Election Day. 

1.3 million people in Harris County voted in 2016. 

Good stuff!

 

[Dahobbs 17449]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

The final numbers for today are pretty dang good. 

 

It's interesting that Harris County has really started to hit mail-in votes hard. This week you had 18k, 11k, 10k, and now 21k.  From October 4th through the 18th Harris had 75,000 mail-in ballots received. It has damn near doubled that the last 4 days.  

[TexEx15 17487]