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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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Bruh Man
Bruh Man

The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

Aqua Buddha
Aqua Buddha

Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

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Chapo

Chapo 104

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Goodman said:

Hmmm, wonder why they would vote that way. Dunno but they sound racist.

Just ask any Asians and Desis about what their immigrants parents think about black people.  Hint: it wouldn't be very PC. 

Anyway, they don't vote for Trump because they are racist.  It is because of money, they grinded their way into a middle/upper class and like R monetary policies better (no free lunch, etc.).   

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Texaspython

Texaspython 231

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Chapo said:

Just ask any Asians and Desis about what their immigrants parents think about black people.  Hint: it wouldn't be very PC. 

Anyway, they don't vote for Trump because they are racist.  It is because of money, they grinded their way into a middle/upper class and like R monetary policies better (no free lunch, etc.).   

Yeah, but the professional class is mostly dem. First and second generation.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Posted

I made some rough estimates of turnout based on 2016 turnout and the current early voting, which added about 5% to most counties from their 2016 result. Then based on the 1 to 1.5% per year loss in Republican votes since 2012 I took Beto's result in the 11 biggest counties and add 2%+ and rounded off to get the second percentage. I assumed 2% third party to get Trump's percentage.

Beto won the biggest 11 counties by 945288 and this method predicts 1557499 for Biden which is easily enough to overcome Beto's 214,000 deficit. The 4th column is Biden's expected votes by county with the fifth column Trump's and the 6th is the difference.

Harris    65%    60%    967039    612458    354,581
Dallas    65%    68%    617266    272323    344,943
Travis    70%    77%    458544    125,058    333,486
Bexar    62%    62%    454367    263826    190,541
El Paso    55%    76%    203849    85831    118,018
Hidalgo    55%    71%    152794    58105    94,689
Fort Bend    70%    58%    195466    134804    60,662
Tarrant    65%    52%    405530    358739    46,791
Williamson    71%    83%    143293    121664    21,629
Collin    72%    49%    227687    227687    0
Denton    70%    48%    189366    197257    -7,891
        

This might be enough to give MJ a chance in the senate race. 

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YChang

YChang 3431

Posted
Posted
Remember the Vietnam war?  Remember how mean the Vietnamese were to our prisoners of war and how they would set booby traps all over the jungle, and throw their children into our troops camps asking for food while strapping bombs to the kids so the bombs would explode and kill everyone?
 
it could just be the Vietnamese are mean by nature and that’s why they vote republican.
 

Satire?
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Posted (edited)

6,380,684 ballots cast so far according to SoS site this morning. Lunch update will have more most likely, but Medina County and Scurry County are showing 71.6% and 91.2% so some kind of error there most likely. I would expect Friday to have a bump and for mail in numbers to pick up/rise from her on out.

That’s 71% of 2016’s total number.

Edited by StassneyHorn
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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9907

Posted
Posted

I don't want to be rude, because I think Beto has done the Lord's work with rebuilding the Democrat party in Texas, but another election and the same old "If Democrats will invest money in the border, this time those voters will FINALLY show up" 

The path to a blue Texas runs through the suburbs.

 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20714

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, GRHorn said:
 

Counterpoint: 

Collin County: Trump +17 (2016) , Cruz +6 (2018)

Williamson County: Trump +10 (2016), Beto +3 (2018)

Denton County; Trump +20 (2016),  Cruz +8 (2018)

Comal County: Trump +50 (2016), Cruz +44 (2018)

Brazoria County: Trump +25 (2016), Cruz +18 (2018) 

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16518

Posted
Posted

A lot to unpack with GRHorn's tweet. For the top three, Trump isn't touching those margins and we know that. The 2018 senate race, where Williamson was D+2 and Collin/Denton R+6-8, is a better proxy. I haven't seen data for Williamson or Denton, but 25 percent of voters in Collin County are new voters. Huge wild card. These are counties to watch to see where the state is swinging.

 

Still, Brazoria and Galveston have consistently posted strong turnout relative to other big counties throughout EV. The inclusion of Comal here is another data point telling us Cult 45 is fired up too.

 

The below should probably concern Democrats/excite Cult 45 more. Beto lagged in South Texas and it's part of why he lost. Lower turnout from EP/the valley makes it next to impossible for Democrats to get over the line.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1319654267494539265

 

 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

A lot to unpack with GRHorn's tweet. For the top three, Trump isn't touching those margins and we know that. The 2018 senate race, where Williamson was D+2 and Collin/Denton R+6-8, is a better proxy. I haven't seen data for Williamson or Denton, but 25 percent of voters in Collin County are new voters. Huge wild card. These are counties to watch to see where the state is swinging.

 

Still, Brazoria and Galveston have consistently posted strong turnout relative to other big counties throughout EV. The inclusion of Comal here is another data point telling us Cult 45 is fired up too.

 

The below should probably concern Democrats/excite Cult 45 more. Beto lagged in South Texas and it's part of why he lost. Lower turnout from EP/the valley makes it next to impossible for Democrats to get over the line.

 

[/url]https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1319654267494539265

 

 

Yeah I just thought it was interesting. The early voting surge is often implied to be anti Trump enthusiasm. It may be, but those numbers, especially the lowest turnout counties, surprised me. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32704

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Posted
1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

Yeah I just thought it was interesting. The early voting surge is often implied to be anti Trump enthusiasm. It may be, but those numbers, especially the lowest turnout counties, surprised me. 

Because you don't understand what you're looking at.

It may be the case, but that can only be ascertained by comparing 2020 turnout to previous turnouts. I'll look at it later, maybe tonight, but the biggest obstacle is that Texas didn't report early turnout for every county until this year. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16518

Posted
Posted
Because you don't understand what you're looking at.
It may be the case, but that can only be ascertained by comparing 2020 turnout to previous turnouts. I'll look at it later, maybe tonight, but the biggest obstacle is that Texas didn't report early turnout for every county until this year. 
Yep. 30 percent of RV in El Paso or the Valley could be a turnout surge, I dont know their history in EV.
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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Because you don't understand what you're looking at.

It may be the case, but that can only be ascertained by comparing 2020 turnout to previous turnouts. I'll look at it later, maybe tonight, but the biggest obstacle is that Texas didn't report early turnout for every county until this year. 

Please explain what I’m missing.

It’s showing the counties with the highest and lowest amount of early voting as represented by the percentage of registered voters that have already voted. I’m not sure what turnout in other elections, early or otherwise, has to do with it. 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31299

Posted
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Married first generation Chinese; can confirm they're racist as fuck.

A big part of all that is simply their first exposure to other ethnic cultures.  Very much "other," which is the starting point of racism.

On the other hand, Asians are very much into their own cultural superiority.  I mean 

0021.jpg

they are the axis of the universe, after all.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9907

Posted
Posted (edited)

I had a great friend at Bates who was from Japan.  Honestly one of the most entertaining people I've known in my life. But good lord he could give my grandfather's country cousin's a run for the money in the racism department. I think because I was from Texas he figured it was okay to say it to me when we'd smoke bowls.

Parks And Recreation Reaction GIF

Edited by Bateshorn
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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I had a great friend at Bates who was from Japan.  Honestly one of the most entertaining people I've known in my life. But good lord he could give my grandfather's country cousin's a run for the money in the racism department. I think because I was from Texas he figured it was okay to say it to me when we'd smoke bowls.

Parks And Recreation Reaction GIF

The Japanese are probably the most racist people on the planet. 
 

They do like to drink though. So it’s all good. 

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25786

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

A big part of all that is simply their first exposure to other ethnic cultures.  Very much "other," which is the starting point of racism.

On the other hand, Asians are very much into their own cultural superiority.  I mean 

0021.jpg

they are the axis of the universe, after all.

What's weird is the white supremacy aspect to their racism. They see whites as being better than themselves in a weird way.

Pretty fucked up.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15493

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13 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

So I don't know how to read this.  Is that "no voting history in Texas"?  Or is that "no voting history anywhere"?  

If it's the latter, that scares the ever-living fuck out of me.  Because that's likely a lot of people who are poorly educated and who have been engaged by some Qanon bullshit on Facetrons.

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25786

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So I don't know how to read this.  Is that "no voting history in Texas"?  Or is that "no voting history anywhere"?  

If it's the latter, that scares the ever-living fuck out of me.  Because that's likely a lot of people who are poorly educated and who have been engaged by some Qanon bullshit on Facetrons.

See, I was thinking it was the youth vote. Maybe a little from column A, a little from column B, ...

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Hawndoh

Hawndoh 2382

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So I don't know how to read this.  Is that "no voting history in Texas"?  Or is that "no voting history anywhere"?  

If it's the latter, that scares the ever-living fuck out of me.  Because that's likely a lot of people who are poorly educated and who have been engaged by some Qanon bullshit on Facetrons.

Could be young people.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, GRHorn said:


 

 

This doesn't mean anything unless those counties are outperforming their turnout in 2016. Fairly meaningless until we see what the total EV numbers are for those counties and whether they improved on those numbers at a higher rate than other counties.

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8275

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11 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So I don't know how to read this.  Is that "no voting history in Texas"?  Or is that "no voting history anywhere"?  

If it's the latter, that scares the ever-living fuck out of me.  Because that's likely a lot of people who are poorly educated and who have been engaged by some Qanon bullshit on Facetrons.

The last 11 days of this race will include a massive splattering about Biden being a pederast on social media.  The QAnon business has clearly, in my mind, has turned some people who never voted into voters, particularly in the 18-34 demographic.  It could hurt.

But, I think there are also more older first-time voters that will offset that.  Trump has pissed off enough people 35-49 over COVID that never felt compelled to vote, but are pissed off enough (protest voters) to vote Biden.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89452

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Rimbo said:

What's weird is the white supremacy aspect to their racism. They see whites as being better than themselves in a weird way.

Pretty fucked up.

Is it because they think we are all rocking large dicks, which is a shame, because the reality is that many of us are barely 7 inches.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89452

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SizzleChest said:

 The QAnon business has clearly, in my mind, has turned some people who never voted into voters, particularly in the 18-34 demographic.  It could hurt.

But, I think there are also more older first-time voters that will offset that.  Trump has pissed off enough people 35-49 over COVID that never felt compelled to vote, but are pissed off enough (protest voters) to vote Biden.

Counterpoint:  Many in the Qanon crowd don't trust the government and/or its evil ways, and don't bother with things like voter registration.   

And many are fucking lazy - which is part of why Qanon appeals to them - they don't have to think, they just have to pass stupid shit around to get other qanons to like them.

In fact, one Qanon fan that I may or may not be related to, told me that she thinks that if the Democrats get power in Texas, they'll look at the ballots and make a note of who voted for who.   Which is not how things work, but I'm not going to explain that to her.

But there will still be plenty, here in Texas and elsewhere, who take photos of themselves lining up to vote, to get that e-cred from their fellow qs.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33844

Posted
Posted
Just now, Mrs Whiggins said:

We are voting as a family this weekend. We have our plan and have made our choices from the sample ballot for all the races. Question: our ballot has numerous down ballot candidates running unopposed as Republicans. Leave blank? Is it possible to write-in on electronic machines?

in Texas, no, I don't think so. At least there were no options in the unopposed races on my ballot (incidentally all dems)

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

We are voting as a family this weekend. We have our plan and have made our choices from the sample ballot for all the races. Question: our ballot has numerous down ballot candidates running unopposed as Republicans. Leave blank? Is it possible to write-in on electronic machines?

You just have to leave them blank.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

Posted
Posted

In the past I always voted for the lone candidate even though in the general I tended to jump around between the parties down ballot regardless. No idea what my spouse did, it never came up. But I'm not interested in supporting the GOP in any way any more, so I'll leave it a no vote. Thanks for letting me know.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32704

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3 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

In the past I always voted for the lone candidate even though in the general I tended to jump around between the parties down ballot regardless. No idea what my spouse did, it never came up. But I'm not interested in supporting the GOP in any way any more, so I'll leave it a no vote. Thanks for letting me know.

I mean I'm not a Democrat but if you want to help them out because of how pissed you are at the GOP then leaving it blank helps. It's easy to calculate how many blank ballots (potential Democrat votes) there were for every race which might prompt the Democrats to run somebody in the future.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17449

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

To surpass the total early voting record or including election day?

Election day.

Harris at 953,593 total EV votes in 2016. It had 1,304,480 total votes by the end of the election.  

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/harris.shtml

5 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Because you don't understand what you're looking at.

It may be the case, but that can only be ascertained by comparing 2020 turnout to previous turnouts. I'll look at it later, maybe tonight, but the biggest obstacle is that Texas didn't report early turnout for every county until this year. 

You can find early voting turnout totals, just not daily totals. The page above exists for every county, but is impossible to find via the secretary of state's website. The link that should take you there ("Voter Registration and Unofficial Early Voting Figures by County" here https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/) redirects somewhere else. Fortunately, you can just replace Harris above with whatever county you want and it'll give you the total early vote % for each year going back to 1988. Pretty helpful since the county websites are pretty irregular in how they report the figures. 

E.g., 

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/starr.shtml

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/cameron.shtml

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/hidalgo.shtml

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/nueces.shtml

Hidalgo, Bell, Webb, Cameron, and El Paso counties are all on pace to beat their EV percentage from 2016.  Webb has actually already exceeded it (15.8% vs 21.26% as of yesterday). Cameron could exceed it today (31.86% vs 29.41%).

Edited by Dahobbs
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11777

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Counterpoint: 

Collin County: Trump +17 (2016) , Cruz +6 (2018)

Williamson County: Trump +10 (2016), Beto +3 (2018)

Denton County; Trump +20 (2016),  Cruz +8 (2018)

Comal County: Trump +50 (2016), Cruz +44 (2018)

Brazoria County: Trump +25 (2016), Cruz +18 (2018) 

 

New Braunfels... woof.

 

Side note: I hooked up with a girl from Braunfels, Germany once while in Frankfurt.

That is all.

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