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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

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DigglerontheHoof

DigglerontheHoof 21,516

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Vito Andolini said:

I never expected this to be the thread that addressed such topics, but as a guy who was once engaged to a Korean and is married to a Filipina (dated Japanese as well... I’m old and have been around, not just a horny dude with an Asian fetish), I’ve never seen such shit talking as goes on between the different Asian nationalities. Lots of self-hate, too. And I’ve mentioned this in other threads, but it seems to be impossible for an Asian woman to see another Asian (in person or in media) and not play, “What Variety of Asian are They?”

How about those vote totals!

Mildly related.  My Vietnamese pedicurist (hot little 26 yo....sorry not a perv, so no pics) told me yesterday that 99% of Vietnamese support Trump.  Not sure hot plugged into politics, though.  She's not a citizen yet, so no vote but said she was the only person in her circle that liked Biden over Trump.  She didn't say why that was. 

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Bruh Man
Bruh Man

The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

Aqua Buddha
Aqua Buddha

Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34,407

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's just getting closer to where it was. Cruz beat O'Rourke by 2.6%, turnout right now is still tilted toward Dem counties from where it was in 2018.

Obviously still a week of early voting then Election Day to see where it all ends up.

Edited by Huckleberry
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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8,302

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

It's just getting closer to where it was. Cruz beat O'Rourke by 2.8%, turnout right now is still tilted toward Dem counties from where it was in 2018.

Obviously still a week of early voting then Election Day to see where it all ends up.

And if the Biden campaign has a good read on probable victory in other states, they could start pouring more money into Texas next week for GOTV.  

I still think it's probable Trump wins by 1.5 to 2 points, but it's also possible a late EV surge makes it way closer.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,698

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

image.png.a8800fe5e4277aced30942e88db8f8b0.png

image.thumb.png.90fa997946277d81932a77339e9e846f.png

Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares and 2020 turnout to date:

Trump - 3,501,855 (51.1%)
Biden - 3,355,608 (48.9%)

Sorry in advance as I’m sure this has been addressed upthread, but does that just assume the same R/D/I split as the 2018 senate race?  If so that is insanely encouraging as I’m sure Trump will lose points compared to that race.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34,407

Posted
Posted
Just now, Snake Diggity said:

Sorry in advance as I’m sure this has been addressed upthread, but does that just assume the same R/D/I split as the 2018 senate race?  If so that is insanely encouraging as I’m sure Trump will lose points compared to that race.

It assumes the same R/D split and ignores third party votes.

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immamac

immamac 44,199

Posted
Posted
Just now, Snake Diggity said:

Sorry in advance as I’m sure this has been addressed upthread, but does that just assume the same R/D/I split as the 2018 senate race?  If so that is insanely encouraging as I’m sure Trump will lose points compared to that race.

Yes, this is assuming the same voter share from 2018 based on county voter share. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,190

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

Sorry in advance as I’m sure this has been addressed upthread, but does that just assume the same R/D/I split as the 2018 senate race?  If so that is insanely encouraging as I’m sure Trump will lose points compared to that race.

Yes, it will not take much of a shift to get Biden over the hump. I'm pretty confident that no Beto voter is voting Trump. And I'm also confident that a significant number of Cruz voters will either cross over or not vote Trump. And that is before we even consider new voters. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34,407

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Wow.  Then why is everybody sweating it?  If that holds, Biden will win.  (I am skeptical as I think the Election Day voting will heavily favor Trump.)

There are plenty of Trump supporters in Texas who don't like Cruz. Honestly I don't feel like anyone has a good handle on the Texas outcome right now, so the default is to assume that forces pulling in both directions sort of even out and we end up right there with a 3-4% Trump win in Texas.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,698

Posted
Posted
Just now, Huckleberry said:

There are plenty of Trump supporters in Texas who don't like Cruz. Honestly I don't feel like anyone has a good handle on the Texas outcome right now, so the default is to assume that forces pulling in both directions sort of even out and we end up right there with a 3-4% Trump win in Texas.

I agree with this.  Very hard to predict and I do think it’ll be Trump +3 when it’s all said and done.  Pretty exciting that it’s close.  Biden needs to pour in money and prepare to contest Trump’s victory in the state.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,664

Posted
Posted
Quick question y’all. I’m up in Fort Worth right now about to visit my nephew at UNT and take him to vote for the first time. He’s registered in Bexar County. Ok pretty sure he’ll need a provisional ballot, but he should still be able to vote right? 

He should be able to vote a limited ballot. That is a ballot with only statewide races, and leaving off the Denton County races.


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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,190

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:


He should be able to vote a limited ballot. That is a ballot with only statewide races, and leaving off the Denton County races.


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This. Have him request a limited ballot and make sure to vote during the early period. Limited ballots cannot be cast on election day. I don't think a provisional ballot for him would get counted because he isn't registered in that county. Alternatively, he could still vote in Bexar county I believe (assuming his permanent residence is still there). 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13,050

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

There are plenty of Trump supporters in Texas who don't like Cruz. Honestly I don't feel like anyone has a good handle on the Texas outcome right now, so the default is to assume that forces pulling in both directions sort of even out and we end up right there with a 3-4% Trump win in Texas.

So, how does our vote figure into this trend? We are in a red, red, red county and voting D and have been a mix in the past (down ballot) due to specific candidates. Plus we have the new of age voter who is voting Biden. That will trend our votes as turnout in a red red county but doesn't show that we voted D, correct? Too bad our other old enough to vote is in another state now, coulda used her vote here. If I understand you correctly, you're saying this will even out with a lean to Trump, but it will be closer than previously thought?

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Texaspython

Texaspython 231

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:


He should be able to vote a limited ballot. That is a ballot with only statewide races, and leaving off the Denton County races.


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I think he’s talking about the unt health center so he just won’t be able to vote for Tarrant county offices.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1,747

Posted
Posted

Based on what I’m seeing here in Wilco, I’m going to predict a Biden victory for the county. I will also predict that he beats Betos margin of victory of 2.8%.

This area took a hard left turn after 2016 and isn’t going to look back. Lots of Austin type voters up here now that are college educated and can afford a 450k house but not a 900k one in Austin.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,664

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, thepop said:

Wait so I have a friend who is registered in austin but is currently in McAllen. He can go vote limited ballot in McAllen?

Yes--this is an important point.  If you are registered in Texas, but you are not registered in the county in which you currently live, you can vote a limited ballot in the county in which you live (but are not registered)  That limited ballot lets you vote for all the statewide races (i.e., President, Senator, RR Commission, TX Supreme Court, TX Court of Criminal Appeals).

Given how close those races are looking to be, every vote is going to count.  So definitely have your friend vote a limited ballot in McAllen.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,190

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Posted

I was curious so I pulled the Harris County early voter roster through Friday (including mail-in ballots). 

The top 10 zip codes (based on address of voter) are as follows:

Zip Code # of Votes % of Total Votes
77433 30,186 2.95%
77429 28,687 2.81%
77379 26,904 2.63%
77449 23,850 2.33%
77346 22,163 2.17%
77084 21,180 2.07%
77095 20,272 1.98%
77375 16,198 1.58%
77007 15,817 1.55%
77008 15,093 1.48%

 

Those 10 zips make up 21.56% of Harris' total EVs. 

Here is a choropleth map of the data.  Whether this is anything other than a map of Harris' population density, I can't say.  

image.thumb.png.dc3b5634b3513b9342f716b8895a30e1.png

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34,407

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

I was curious so I pulled the Harris County early voter roster through Friday (including mail-in ballots). 

The top 10 zip codes (based on address of voter) are as follows:

Zip Code # of Votes % of Total Votes
77433 30,186 2.95%
77429 28,687 2.81%
77379 26,904 2.63%
77449 23,850 2.33%
77346 22,163 2.17%
77084 21,180 2.07%
77095 20,272 1.98%
77375 16,198 1.58%
77007 15,817 1.55%
77008 15,093 1.48%

 

Those 10 zips make up 21.56% of Harris' total EVs. 

Here is a choropleth map of the data.  Whether this is anything other than a map of Harris' population density, I can't say.  

image.thumb.png.dc3b5634b3513b9342f716b8895a30e1.png

 

That's not good news for Democrats. Cypress is leading early voting and is still majority Republican. But not sure what it looked like in 2016 and 2018.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106,625

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Posted
Can anyone point me in the direction of the “Which Races Are The Most Racist” thread?


Let’s just do it here. Could be the Dagos, might be the Krauts. But I have a WWII history bias.

There are plenty of Trump supporters in Texas who don't like Cruz. Honestly I don't feel like anyone has a good handle on the Texas outcome right now, so the default is to assume that forces pulling in both directions sort of even out and we end up right there with a 3-4% Trump win in Texas.


I think that’s dead on.

That's not good news for Democrats. Cypress is leading early voting and is still majority Republican. But not sure what it looked like in 2016 and 2018.


Dems need to win districts (TX house for sure), they ain’t gonna win the state.
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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19,558

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Based on what I’m seeing here in Wilco, I’m going to predict a Biden victory for the county. I will also predict that he beats Betos margin of victory of 2.8%.

This area took a hard left turn after 2016 and isn’t going to look back. Lots of Austin type voters up here now that are college educated and can afford a 450k house but not a 900k one in Austin.

Yea, and the “Ronald Reagan corridor” from Avery Ranch up to hwy 29 is exploding, and has a very large Indian community. According to the graph on a previous page, they lean fairly heavily blue. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,190

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Posted

Someone educate me on voting precincts, are they stable at all? The reason I ask, Harris County Precinct 3 had 1,643 registered voters in 2018 and favored Beto by nearly 3:1. In 2020 it has a grand total of 6 registered voters. 

P.S. Looking at spreadsheets is much more fun than watching Texas Football. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,190

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Precincts don’t matter with countywide voting

Voters are still assigned precincts though. They don't matter from a where you vote perspective, but I'm asking whether they are useful at all for historical trend analysis. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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gmr548

gmr548 16,681

Posted
Posted
I was curious so I pulled the Harris County early voter roster through Friday (including mail-in ballots). 
The top 10 zip codes (based on address of voter) are as follows:
Zip Code # of Votes % of Total Votes
77433 30,186 2.95%
77429 28,687 2.81%
77379 26,904 2.63%
77449 23,850 2.33%
77346 22,163 2.17%
77084 21,180 2.07%
77095 20,272 1.98%
77375 16,198 1.58%
77007 15,817 1.55%
77008 15,093 1.48%
 
Those 10 zips make up 21.56% of Harris' total EVs. 
Here is a choropleth map of the data.  Whether this is anything other than a map of Harris' population density, I can't say.  
image.thumb.png.dc3b5634b3513b9342f716b8895a30e1.png
 

Yeah that’s concentrated in aggy/trump country.
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Posted

As a reminder, the data on the primary vote in Harris from a few days ago was that 22.8% voted in Republican primaries while 34.37% voted in Democratic primaries. This compares to 2018 when in total 33.0% had voted in Republican primaries and 28.6 in Democratic primaries and Beto won Harris county by 200,000 votes.

Based on Similar numbers in Collin, Dallas, and  Williamson the Republican turnout was lagging by 10% in early voting. So the high percentage turnout in formerly Republican leaning counties is due to a high turnout of both, but leaning Democratic in the early voting phase.

In general, Texas is shifting Democratic by 1% to 1.5% per year over the last 8 years, so While Cruz had 50.9% of the vote, a better estimate is to adjust that 2% downward to 48.9% and recalculate. If you do that Biden wins considering the small 3rd party vote.

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Your Mom

Your Mom 4,956

Posted
Posted

This thread reminds me of the preseason football threads about the Horns' chances every upcoming year.  I want to believe... but no.  There's way more quiet Trump votes out there both early and on election day.  They aren't talking or posting about it but the votes for him are there regardless.  

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53,332

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32 minutes ago, RayDog said:

As a reminder, the data on the primary vote in Harris from a few days ago was that 22.8% voted in Republican primaries while 34.37% voted in Democratic primaries. This compares to 2018 when in total 33.0% had voted in Republican primaries and 28.6 in Democratic primaries and Beto won Harris county by 200,000 votes.

Based on Similar numbers in Collin, Dallas, and  Williamson the Republican turnout was lagging by 10% in early voting. So the high percentage turnout in formerly Republican leaning counties is due to a high turnout of both, but leaning Democratic in the early voting phase.

In general, Texas is shifting Democratic by 1% to 1.5% per year over the last 8 years, so While Cruz had 50.9% of the vote, a better estimate is to adjust that 2% downward to 48.9% and recalculate. If you do that Biden wins considering the small 3rd party vote.

And the point of voting in the republican primary this year is what exactly?

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,190

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Posted

Yeah, I think the precinct level data is worthless. Too many precincts are shifting by large numbers in populations. I can't find any historical precinct maps, so I don't even know if the precincts stay in within the same zip codes. But, I will try to repost that map as a function of turnout as opposed to just raw numbers. It'll take me a minute to get the data together.

P.S. Hook'em. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,190

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Posted

Yeah, I think the precinct level data is worthless. Too many precincts are shifting by large numbers in populations. I can't find any historical precinct maps, so I don't even know if the precincts stay in within the same zip codes. But, I will try to repost that map as a function of turnout as opposed to just raw numbers. It'll take me a minute to get the data together.

P.S. Hook'em. 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13,050

Posted
Posted (edited)

More boxes? More boxes!

Edit--now I'm not sure if that's actually the old news, sorry if I got that wrong. I was going off of his tweet date so it may be inaccurate. I thought the issue was decided and the ban stayed and couldn't be appealed but after being absent for the week may have missed something.

Edited by Mrs Whiggins
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thepop

thepop 4,418

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yes--this is an important point.  If you are registered in Texas, but you are not registered in the county in which you currently live, you can vote a limited ballot in the county in which you live (but are not registered)  That limited ballot lets you vote for all the statewide races (i.e., President, Senator, RR Commission, TX Supreme Court, TX Court of Criminal Appeals).

Given how close those races are looking to be, every vote is going to count.  So definitely have your friend vote a limited ballot in McAllen.

It seems like unfortunately you can’t go to any polling place. You have to go to the “main voting center” in your county to do a limited ballot. Which is stupid how difficult they make this for people.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,190

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Posted

Ok, here are the top 20 zips in Harris county based on turnout of registered voters (through Friday):

Zip Code # of Votes # of Registered Voters Turnout
77581 1,990 3,334 59.69%
77365 423 745 56.78%
77401 7,451 13,165 56.60%
77094 3,885 7,010 55.42%
77059 7,887 14,511 54.35%
77008 15,093 27,857 54.18%
77489 468 877 53.36%
77024 14,373 27,339 52.57%
77345 11,118 21,372 52.02%
77018 9,966 19,203 51.90%
77005 10,986 21,216 51.78%
77079 11,508 22,464 51.23%
77030 4,047 7,906 51.19%
77019 9,353 18,429 50.75%
77027 6,494 12,896 50.36%
77098 5,808 11,725 49.54%
77433 30,186 61,012 49.48%
77062 8,871 17,956 49.40%
77056 7,576 15,377 49.27%
77346 22,163 45,023 49.23%

 

And the full map:

image.thumb.png.05620b0dd3311798f878c7440cc88963.png

 

 

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