2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[atomheartbevo 90548]

11 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes, it will not take much of a shift to get Biden over the hump. I'm pretty confident that no Beto voter is voting Trump. And I'm also confident that a significant number of Cruz voters will either cross over or not vote Trump. And that is before we even consider new voters. 

4 hours ago, Your Mom said:

This thread reminds me of the preseason football threads about the Horns' chances every upcoming year.  I want to believe... but no.  There's way more quiet Trump votes out there both early and on election day.  They aren't talking or posting about it but the votes for him are there regardless.  

Hillary is not on the ballot this year.  There were a fuck-ton of people who had an intense hatred for her, and that helped Trump out - lest we forget, Trump's base was not large enough to keep Barrack Hussein Obama out of the White House for 8 years, even though a war hero was running in 2008.

And Trump's base was most definitely around in 2008 and 2012, given their age, and many of them were voting, also given their age.

And Texas had plenty of Hillary and Bill haters.

Does boring old white guy beat Trump in 2020 here in Texas?  I don't know, but I do know I have relatives/friends who voted Trump in 2016, who are publicly proclaiming they are voting Biden this year, even though they run the risk of being chewed out/unfriended on FB from other relatives/friends about it.

Edited October 25, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 90548]

 

[Huckleberry 34407]

Nightly estimate/preview:

Edited October 25, 2020 by Huckleberry

[RayDog 682]

The biggest 11 counties are at about 44.5% based on those estimates and within reach of 46.0% in 24 hours. Then conservatively the could add 2% a day M-W and 3% Th & Fr to reach 58% in early voting or perhaps match 2016s percentage for the full election. 

From there it seems likely they will top 70% on election day. 75% might be in reach.

[Pato del Muerto 53332]

52 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The biggest 11 counties are at about 44.5% based on those estimates and within reach of 46.0% in 24 hours. Then conservatively the could add 2% a day M-W and 3% Th & Fr to reach 58% in early voting or perhaps match 2016s percentage for the full election. 

From there it seems likely they will top 70% on election day. 75% might be in reach.

I was at the 57 mark for EV a couple of days ago, but I’m thinking there will be lower than expected election day turnout as the higher EV turnout is more of a shift to early voting than a true increase of high magnitude. I’m thinking 65% max. Would be cool if you were right, other than the idea that day of turnout will trend trump.  

[RayDog 682]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I was at the 57 mark for EV a couple of days ago, but I’m thinking there will be lower than expected election day turnout as the higher EV turnout is more of a shift to early voting than a true increase of high magnitude. I’m thinking 65% max. Would be cool if you were right, other than the idea that day of turnout will trend trump.  

In the past Republicans have been capped at 4.7 million votes. So even if half of them waited and no Democrats did it would still be 2.35 million or about 14% of 16.9 million. I think the actually lower limit for election day turnout is closer to 20%.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

11 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Ok, here are the top 20 zips in Harris county based on turnout of registered voters (through Friday):

Zip Code	# of Votes	# of Registered Voters	Turnout
77581	1,990	3,334	59.69%
77365	423	745	56.78%
77401	7,451	13,165	56.60%
77094	3,885	7,010	55.42%
77059	7,887	14,511	54.35%
77008	15,093	27,857	54.18%
77489	468	877	53.36%
77024	14,373	27,339	52.57%
77345	11,118	21,372	52.02%
77018	9,966	19,203	51.90%
77005	10,986	21,216	51.78%
77079	11,508	22,464	51.23%
77030	4,047	7,906	51.19%
77019	9,353	18,429	50.75%
77027	6,494	12,896	50.36%
77098	5,808	11,725	49.54%
77433	30,186	61,012	49.48%
77062	8,871	17,956	49.40%
77056	7,576	15,377	49.27%
77346	22,163	45,023	49.23%

 

And the full map:

 

 

Good and bad examples on both sides but the lowest % voting precincts would seem to be democrat leaning along the N 45 corridor.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

I actually believe that a poll like this would energize the gop more than Dems in Texas. In the same poll, cornyn is up by 8. That is a very large crossover especially with likely voters 9 days out.

Edited October 25, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[TexasEd 8248]

On 10/24/2020 at 9:17 AM, Dahobbs said:

I mean, it would be the highest turnout since 1992 by a significant margin. We literally haven't broken 60% registered voters turnout since then. And, in 1992 only 65% of eligible voters were registered versus 78% this year.   67% registered voter turnout would be damn good for us. 

Too use Trump logic we have too many registered voters because we register too much for mildly interested voters that just go away.  Stop voter registration and we would have better voter turnout numbers.

 

 

[TexasEd 8248]

On 10/24/2020 at 9:17 AM, Dahobbs said:

I mean, it would be the highest turnout since 1992 by a significant margin. We literally haven't broken 60% registered voters turnout since then. And, in 1992 only 65% of eligible voters were registered versus 78% this year.   67% registered voter turnout would be damn good for us. 

Too use Trump logic we have too many registered voters because we register too much for mildly interested voters that just go away.  Stop voter registration and we would have better voter turnout numbers.

 

 

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Early vote is at 80% of 2016 total. 

[immamac 44199]

4 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Early vote is at 80% of 2016 total. 

Seems suspect and fraudulent. 

[SubliminalHorn 6995]

My nephew voted yesterday, so add one more to the 18-29 demographic for Biden. 

[Huckleberry 34407]

Final Saturday update

2020 current Statewide estimate based on 2018 Dem/Rep county vote shares

Trump - 3,673,874 (51.1%)

Biden - 3,519,509 (48.9%)

 

[Huckleberry 34407]

To try to get a small sense of relative turnout, here is a report on the percent of total 2018 early votes that each of the 15 most populous Texas counties has reached through yesterday:

Harris: 97.34%
Dallas: 98.88%
Tarrant: 89.59%
Bexar: 92.46%
Travis: 92.74%
Collin: 95.04%
Denton: 100.80%
El Paso: 89.48%
Fort Bend: 94.19%
Hidalgo: 85.46%
Williamson: 97.34%
Montgomery: 92.50%
Galveston: 97.86%
Brazoria: 81.45%
Cameron: 100.39%
 

Total for the 15 counties together is 95.1%, so any counties above that number are above the 15 county average. And vice versa, of course. Brazoria is from county data and not Statewide data so it may be off, that's why it's in italics. Drawn from a different data source. Brazoria was excluded from the overall average calculation for that reason. These numbers include mail-in votes.

Edited October 25, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Pato del Muerto 53332]

So can I take that to mean that through 2 weeks of early voting, we are about at the same pace as last election early voting which lasted 2 weeks?

that still makes me wonder if the extended EV will just rob votes from Election Day, rather than helping to add votes. Can’t know that until next Wednesday though. 

[Longhornmaniac8 255]

Final Saturday update


2020 current Statewide estimate based on 2018 Dem/Rep county vote shares

Trump - 3,673,874 (51.1%)

Biden - 3,519,509 (48.9%)

 

Just to get some clarity/confirmation, these totals are assuming there is no change in voting patterns of a county's electorate from 2018. If a county voted 55.5% Cruz, the assumption here is 55.5% Trump?

[Huckleberry 34407]

Correct

[StassneyHorn 6755]

YUGE

 

[Beau Vine 55824]

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[atomheartbevo 90548]

1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

 

Did not expect it to be Hays County.   That is very interesting.  

[Dahobbs 18190]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Did not expect it to be Hays County.   That is very interesting.  

It is driven by an increase in the number of registered voters. Hays has increased 26% since 2016. 

[atomheartbevo 90548]

10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It is driven by an increase in the number of registered voters. Hays has increased 26% since 2016. 

It's San Marcos, and I'm going to guess that it wasn't a matter of getting a bunch of olds, who skipped 2016,  off their asses and out to vote for Trump, but was instead college students (or students registered elsewhere but considered HC to be their home) who registered.

Edited October 26, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Dahobbs 18190]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's San Marcos, and I'm going to guess that it wasn't a matter of getting a bunch of olds, who skipped 2016,  off their asses and out to vote for Trump, but was instead college students (or students registered elsewhere but considered HC to be their home) who registered.

Well, the population also increased by 17%, so it was a combination of more people + an additional uptick in registrations. Your theory sounds fine to me. 

[Beau Vine 55824]

Did a 2-mile walk in my San Marcos neighborhood tonight.

Literally saw 2 Trump yard signs. Probably 20+ Biden signs.

[atomheartbevo 90548]

34 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, the population also increased by 17%, so it was a combination of more people + an additional uptick in registrations. Your theory sounds fine to me. 

How did they increase by 17%?  Texas State can't exactly lower their standards any more, otherwise they'd turn into aggy.

[The Dog 44771]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

How did they increase by 17%?  Texas State can't exactly lower their standards any more, otherwise they'd turn into aggy.

Cheap housing - the draw of Hays County.

[yoladu 4187]

latest from Travis County - early voting totals after 13 days

total votes : 427,071

% of registered voters who have voted : 50%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct25.pdf

This weekend had some of the lightest days of the early voting period. We'll see if it picks up again this week

5 more days of early voting to go.

 

 

[Pato del Muerto 53332]

19 minutes ago, yoladu said:

latest from Travis County - early voting totals after 13 days

total votes : 427,071

% of registered voters who have voted : 50%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct25.pdf

This weekend had some of the lightest days of the early voting period. We'll see if it picks up again this week

5 more days of early voting to go.

 

 

Hoping for 7-10 more % including a last day spike, statewide. Just 1% mon-thurs and then 3% Friday accomplishes that lower end. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

El Paso going into covid curfew. Wonder how/if that affects their turnout this week

[Huckleberry 34407]

Nightly estimate/preview:

[RayDog 682]

I noticed that as of Sunday morning the biggest 11 counties had a 44.1% turnout while the remaining counties had a 40.1% turnout for a 10% advantage among the biggest, primarily Democratic counties. In 2016 those 11 counties had a 2.7% advantage at the end. Of course, Republicans will think they will make it up on election day and perhaps they will.

[Neonmoon 38130]

So if Travis is already at 50%, what’s the expected final %? What’s the record?

[RayDog 682]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

So if Travis is already at 50%, what’s the expected final %? What’s the record?

The record is 78.25 in 1992. Travis could hit 75% the way things are going, which would be nice.

[DanTheHorn 5061]

On 10/23/2020 at 11:27 PM, SimonBolivar said:

I worked with a Mexican girl from Guadalajara who was a super smart engineer and well liked at Disney. Well one day she is off by herself crying because of the things the Argentinean tour group of 15 year olds were saying about Mexicans.

 Of course saying that you should see what my Mexican inlaws say about Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Salvadorans. 

Were they talking about the damn offside goal they got or the dagger in the heart golden goal.

[Hiphopopotamos 21158]

 

[Bookman 4754]

Trump got 800,000 more votes than Clinton in 2016, who received 43.24% of the Texas vote.

If Democrats are 8 points higher, that means they’re getting 51.24% of this new vote. Assuming Trump is getting the other 48.76%, this is only a 46,000 vote lead in the new voters.

[DigglerontheHoof 21516]

8 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

El Paso going into covid curfew. Wonder how/if that affects their turnout this week

Isn’t it daily from 10pm -5am?  Shouldn’t do too much harm.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

18 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Trump got 800,000 more votes than Clinton in 2016, who received 43.24% of the Texas vote.

If Democrats are 8 points higher, that means they’re getting 51.24% of this new vote. Assuming Trump is getting the other 48.76%, this is only a 46,000 vote lead in the new voters.

yeah.  8 points isn't going to get it done.

[Vito Andolini 9431]

I don’t know who Tom Boner is, but 1) I like his name and 2) I like this tweet:

 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13619]

Is that pronounced boney-YAY?

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

20 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Trump got 800,000 more votes than Clinton in 2016, who received 43.24% of the Texas vote.

If Democrats are 8 points higher, that means they’re getting 51.24% of this new vote. Assuming Trump is getting the other 48.76%, this is only a 46,000 vote lead in the new voters.

And that kind of is my response to people who think the GOP has tapped out their vote or they are necessarily dead at XX percent turnout. There’s a lot of Dems that don’t vote bc why bother- losing cause. There’s a lot of GOP that don’t vote bc why bother- pointless. Dems will likely net more votes from increased turnout than GOP but how many more?  8% seems small as a margin. That means Dems are going to have to do some persuasion not just turn out. Looks like Trump is doing their persuasion for them. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Trump got 800,000 more votes than Clinton in 2016, who received 43.24% of the Texas vote.

If Democrats are 8 points higher, that means they’re getting 51.24% of this new vote. Assuming Trump is getting the other 48.76%, this is only a 46,000 vote lead in the new voters.

Biden is running well ahead of Clinton in existing voters though. It won't be 800k more this time. I still think Trump wins but it's going to be close.

 

[Pancho 46054]

 

[Huckleberry 34407]

2018 Cruz/O'Rourke:

Denton - 158,744/134,649 (53.7/45.5)
Hays - 33,308/45,584 (41.8/57.1)
Williamson - 99,857/105,850 (48.0/50.8)

[TexEx15 17914]

10 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Biden is running well ahead of Clinton in existing voters though. It won't be 800k more this time. I still think Trump wins but it's going to be close.

 

I recognize the difference between a presidential election and an interim but wouldn’t it be instructive to look at the Beto/Cruz race in 18 as a starting point.  That race clearly demonstrated a change after 2 years of Trump.  

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Biden is running well ahead of Clinton in existing voters though. It won't be 800k more this time. I still think Trump wins but it's going to be close.

 

Yeah- the question for me and key for Dems is about how many voters they flip. Because every vote they flip is a +2, whereas every new vote is like a plus 0.1 if those numbers are to be believed. They aren’t turning out 8,000,000 new voters. They need to persuade some. 
If the numbers are right that Cronyn is running 10 points ahead of Trump then Donnie is doing their work for them. 

Edited October 26, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I recognize the difference between a presidential election and an interim but wouldn’t it be instructive to look at the Beto/Cruz race in 18 as a starting point.  That race clearly demonstrated a change after 2 years of Trump.  

I don’t think so. Midterms are about mood. Dems were mad. I’d always counsel against comparing a presidential to a midterm. 
My sense in 18 was Beto got more of his voters to the polls than the other side did bc he was really well liked by his base. 

[Huckleberry 34407]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- the question for me and key for Dems is about how many voters they flip. Because every vote they flip is a +2, whereas every new vote is like a plus 0.1 of those numbers are to be believed. They aren’t turning out 8,000,000 new voters. They need to persuade some before. 
mid the numbers are right that Cronyn is running 10 points ahead of Trump than Donnie is doing their work for them. 

The Cornyn/Trump difference isn't just Trump, it's also Hegar running a terrible Senate campaign.