2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Pasken 1310]

Y'all should have voted for Christina. At least she stood for shit.

[TexasEd 8248]

26 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Y'all should have voted for Christina. At least she stood for shit.

Same outcome.

[Dahobbs 18190]

 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

3 hours ago, Fud said:

Voted at the Toyota Center last Friday around 1 pm, and there was no line, and maybe three others filling out their ballot 

Yeah- which is why I don’t get all you assholes lined up for hours on day 1 or 2, but to each his own. 

[atomheartbevo 90546]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Who is they? Was this a reporting group like Texas tribune? Or some rando on Twitter?

I’m asking you directly to answer but it seems like someone came up with this # and it’s now listed as the truth. 

We keep getting flyers from some "Center for Voter Information" or "Public Voting" or whatever, just a single sheet black&white flyer addressed to us individually, folded over/glued, and you open it up, and it tells you "who you voted for isn't public record, but the fact that you voted is, and according to that, you participate more in Texas voting than most people bleh bleh bleh bleh".  It's a GOTV effort from somebody.  They list your voting record back to 2012 and whether you voted in the general elections.

That information is public record and easy for companies to access, as is new voter registrations I believe, so companies can data-mine voting records and compare them to previous elections.  

This is the information companies can publicly request:

• Full names of all registrants (including middle names or initials)
• Addresses of most registrants
• Dates of birth
• Voting history from 2006 onward
• Active/inactive status
• Whether a voter’s registration has been canceled. 
• Party primaries you voted in
• When you voted.
• What type of ballot you used (mail-in, in-person, etc.)

It does not reveal how you voted in any individual election.

Should be really easy to see how many Texans voted this year, who didn't vote in 2018, 2016, etc.

Edited October 26, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[StassneyHorn 6755]

25 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- which is why I don’t get all you assholes lined up for hours on day 1 or 2, but to each his own. 

Those assholes that stood in line contributed to the record early voting total which has helped bring millions of dollars of late funding to campaigns, increased TV ad expenditures and a visit from the VP on Friday.

[atomheartbevo 90546]

4 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Hegar's campaign manager is a longtime national Dem that ran Kay Hagan and Jon Tester's winning campaigns among other things. She's probably would've been better served by an actual Texan running things for her.

Amplifying tattoos, motorcycles, and the military for your candidate seems a bit archaic for our state these days. "She's Texas tough!"  The electorate is changing rapidly and her campaign is not with the times. Enough of this shit. 

4 hours ago, Nivek said:

Actually, being a She, mom, shot down, and rides a motorcycle is all I really know about her.  Her campaign fucking sucks.   It sucked from the beginning and still sucks now.  Giving her $20 million dollars will just make more suck unless she makes major changes.   I voted for her simply because she was not corona shot glass dipshit, and I am anti-Republican

MJ's ad people seem to be playing it pretty safe - Cornyn can't attack her over being a Purple Heart vet, being a mom, being a motorcycle rider, etc.

They should be absolutely hammering away at Cornyn for being a fucking embarrassment as a Texan and licking the taint of that fucking orange Yankee.

They absolutely should be hammering away at the fact that he kissed Trump's ass constantly, and then when the polls started down, he started distancing himself from Trump, because he's spineless.  Make ads hammering that fact, enough that Lou Dobbs hears that Cornyn is pretending not to be on Team Trump, and goes on a rant.

And Cornyn is an Irish surname (originally Curneen in that fucking twisted Hobbit language the Irish speak), and nowhere is Hegar bringing up his Irish heritage.

 

[Hank Scorpio 17924]

When/if the Democrats take Texas back over they need to voter oppress the shit out of Republicans. Polling stations only in the worst part of town, all minority election workers, bring back literacy tests except every voter has to read the 1619 Project, voting ID restrictions where in order to cast a ballot you have to identify as they/them, the only day polls are open is the same day as the local NASCAR race etc. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i think we are taught this wrong in elementary school.  i remember the message being "you never know! check out this one vote that happened one time in some BFE that was decided by 1 vote" 

no, it is statistically impossible my vote will ever count in that regard. but if that was the standard for making me vote, it's not a democracy i'm looking for.  our system works because each of the ideas out there are represented in the ballot box in proportion to the popular adoption of the idea.  if you don't vote, you are throwing off that ratio.  

Good point. It's not about voting only in case of the struck-by-lightning chance that you're voting in a race that will be decided by 1 vote. That's never the reason why an individual should vote and any educator should avoid that subject .  We vote to express our desire in support of current leadership/person or if we want a change.

In theory, even if you vote on the losing side, there is a chance that the winner would notice the level of non-support and could change how they lead. However in today's hyper-partisan world, many (most) politicians today would treat a miniscule victory as a mandate.  And this works both directions. we don't see Lizzie Fletcher or Chip Roy taking moderate views just because they both represent districts that voted close to 50-50 in 2018.  It's full steam ahead on the winning agenda.

[NAVY 6910]

43 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- which is why I don’t get all you assholes lined up for hours on day 1 or 2, but to each his own. 

This asshole stood in line to vote out that asshole 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

all this talk of assholes has me hungry

[atomheartbevo 90546]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In theory, even if you vote on the losing side, there is a chance that the winner would notice the level of non-support and could change how they lead. However in today's hyper-partisan world, many (most) politicians today would treat a miniscule victory as a mandate.  And this works both directions. we don't see Lizzie Fletcher or Chip Roy taking moderate views just because they both represent districts that voted close to 50-50 in 2018.  It's full steam ahead on the winning agenda.

In theory, if the Rs get thoroughly defeated in many places across the US, and not just the White House, but the down-ballot races, it's going to make the numbers people who Fletcher and Roy (and Cruz and Abbott, etc.) rely on sit up and take notice, and they will push that information to the Fletchers, Roys, etc.

The problem is, some politicians read those numbers wrong - they maybe delusional enough to believe that they and  other Rs would do better if they doubled-down on the Trumpness.  I've got friends who work for such an analytics firm, and they frequently have clients who take the wrong message away from such numbers.  

They get a mindset not of "I need to make changes to attract a broader group of people", but "I really need to dig in and get every single last voter out of that shrinking base of mine!" Or worse, they decide they can buff up their support by going after politicians in their own party who aren't extreme enough

It's almost like a mindset of being in a store where a small fire starts, and instead of grabbing a nearby fire extinguisher and putting it out, they decide to flee, and grab the cash register on their way out the door.  They are thinking extremely short-term and only in the moment.

It's not that way in all states - plenty of states require a much more moderate stance, and politicians have to cater to a broad range of people.  But way too many states are either safe for one party, or have become so polarized, to the extent that when support for the ruling party drops, the politicians don't know how to handle it.

Watch Texas over the next few elections - rather than try and broaden their support/base, they are going to eat their own (Patrick appears to already be doing this).   They are going to be rats trying to climb on top of each other in a sinking ship, and fuck each other over.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- which is why I don’t get all you assholes lined up for hours on day 1 or 2, but to each his own. 

As I've told you before, it helps your party's campaigns if you vote early.  It allows them to take the time that they might otherwise spend getting out your vote and instead spend it getting out the vote of more marginal voters.

[Dahobbs 18190]

 

 

[Dahobbs 18190]

 

 

[royiv 9687]

5 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

She took that tack in this rant on Friday, which was pretty good I thought.  She needs to get it out via more than Twitter though. 

 

I was at a rally yesterday afternoon before starting a volunteer shift for Sima's campaign. Both Sima and MJ spoke at the rally. I was really, really impressed by how well MJ spoke and how she articulated why Cornyn must go and why down ballot races matter. It's sort of frustrating to see since her media doesn't match the charisma she has in public speaking.

[SydneyCarton 49325]

7 minutes ago, royiv said:

I was at a rally yesterday afternoon before starting a volunteer shift for Sima's campaign. Both Sima and MJ spoke at the rally. I was really, really impressed by how well MJ spoke and how she articulated why Cornyn must go and why down ballot races matter. It's sort of frustrating to see since her media doesn't match the charisma she has in public speaking.

Posting more videos of her public speaking and spreading those on social media might be a good idea then...

[royiv 9687]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Posting more videos of her public speaking and spreading those on social media might be a good idea then...

Yeah, I don't do social media so I wouldn't be very effective at that. I do give substantially to down ballot races and volunteer my time for GOTV efforts and races of importance to me so I do a lot more than the average voter.

[Ted Lange 16353]

11 minutes ago, royiv said:

Yeah, I don't do social media so I wouldn't be very effective at that.

I assume she has someone that work for her campaign who knows how to use twitter/facebook/IG/Youtube/etc....  Or maybe not/

[SydneyCarton 49325]

23 minutes ago, royiv said:

Yeah, I don't do social media so I wouldn't be very effective at that. I do give substantially to down ballot races and volunteer my time for GOTV efforts and races of importance to me so I do a lot more than the average voter.

I didn’t mean you my man, I meant HER and her team. 

[Pato del Muerto 53331]

Just found out my mother in law voted democrat for president for the first time in 60 years. So +1 in tarrant county as she voted for Gary last time. 

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Just found out my mother in law voted democrat for president for the first time in 60 years. So +1 in tarrant county as she voted for Gary last time. 

All of these personal stories typically don’t mean much but I could really see something being in play here. I don’t know a single person voting for trump that didn’t in 2016. I know quite a few that voted for Biden that didn’t last time. One hadn’t voted in 20 years.

[thepop 4418]

Yeah all of these anecdotes are meaningless but....there sure are a lot of them. Not just on this site either.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Just found out my mother in law voted democrat for president for the first time in 60 years. So +1 in tarrant county as she voted for Gary last time. 

Fuck yes. I needed that tonight. Cheers, brother

[yoladu 4187]

latest from Travis County - early voting totals after 14 days

total votes : 448,419

% of registered voters who have voted : 52.44%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct26.pdf

4 more days of early voting to go.

(had been blessed with really great weather the past 2 weeks.. the cold and rain might have tamped down the numbers today)

[Huckleberry 34407]

Nightly preview/estimate:

[elfenix 34658]

12 hours ago, TexasEd said:

I think they can split the votes into first time Texas voters and voted in Texas before. They can also tell which primary people voted in.  That is about the extent of it.  Are those first time Texas voters people that previously voted in Kansas or California or just turned 18, recently naturalized, or 65 and never voted before?  Who knows.  They just never voted in Texas before.

Agree, I think the only hope Hegar has is the I don't know who Cornyn is but he has an  R and Hegar has a D and I'm voting against the R crowd.

 

if you know someone's precinct and name (which you get from voter rolls) and you have access to a big consumer/credit database, you could almost certainly figure that out.  have consumer purchase info with that?  you can predict their vote with a high degree of accuracy. 

facebook could predict the result of every election in the US to within half a percent if it wanted. 

[elfenix 34658]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

We keep getting flyers from some "Center for Voter Information" or "Public Voting" or whatever, just a single sheet black&white flyer addressed to us individually, folded over/glued, and you open it up, and it tells you "who you voted for isn't public record, but the fact that you voted is, and according to that, you participate more in Texas voting than most people bleh bleh bleh bleh".  It's a GOTV effort from somebody.  They list your voting record back to 2012 and whether you voted in the general elections.

That information is public record and easy for companies to access, as is new voter registrations I believe, so companies can data-mine voting records and compare them to previous elections.  

This is the information companies can publicly request:

• Full names of all registrants (including middle names or initials)
• Addresses of most registrants
• Dates of birth
• Voting history from 2006 onward
• Active/inactive status
• Whether a voter’s registration has been canceled. 
• Party primaries you voted in
• When you voted.
• What type of ballot you used (mail-in, in-person, etc.)

It does not reveal how you voted in any individual election.

Should be really easy to see how many Texans voted this year, who didn't vote in 2018, 2016, etc.

i got 3 mailers from them today.  one showed my voting history along with 2 of my neighbors (names blacked out).  another mentioned that i'm an above average voter and had general voter encouragement.  the third showed me the ratings from the texas american federation of teacher, the AFL-CIO, and the sierra club for ann johnson and sarahdavis.  it also listed the candidates websites.

from the third mailer i'd say it's probably a lefty org.  that first mailer was a bit creepy tho.  even knowing that whether you voted in a general and which primary you voted in is public record (and having checked up on people i know using that info), it's still weird having someone mail that info to me. 

[RayDog 682]

4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Nightly preview/estimate:

That is amazing since 250k among the top 15 means 400k overall which puts the total at nearly 7.8 million. Breaking 9 million in early voting is looking like a real possibility. Beyond that 11 million plus total after election day looks pretty certain. 

[MidTexHorn 822]

Republicans are turning out early in Midland. Here’s an article about early voting out there. The numbers are a drop in the bucket compared to the state on the whole, but they’re going to easily surpass 2018 and 2016 numbers, and they won’t be voting for Biden or MJ - Cruz got 77% of the vote in 2018. Interesting to see if this is playing out statewide and nationwide. Suspect voters are fired up on both sides to turn out. 
https://www.mrt.com/news/article/Number-of-early-voters-possibly-could-hit-50-000-15674284.php?fbclid=IwAR3KCPX1bYeD8JUtbQfxwra70wcRA12EZK30BZl9XY_Tu8lPtTXblYJsm3o

[Dahobbs 18190]

15 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Republicans are turning out early in Midland. Here’s an article about early voting out there. The numbers are a drop in the bucket compared to the state on the whole, but they’re going to easily surpass 2018 and 2016 numbers, and they won’t be voting for Biden or MJ - Cruz got 77% of the vote in 2018. Interesting to see if this is playing out statewide and nationwide. Suspect voters are fired up on both sides to turn out. 
https://www.mrt.com/news/article/Number-of-early-voters-possibly-could-hit-50-000-15674284.php?fbclid=IwAR3KCPX1bYeD8JUtbQfxwra70wcRA12EZK30BZl9XY_Tu8lPtTXblYJsm3o

Midland is around 40% early voter turnout right now. It was 48% at the end of early voting in 2016. It will probably just about match that this year. That actually puts it behind other counties in terms of relative increase in participation. Harris, Travis, Bexar, Dallas, and El Paso have all already surpassed their early voting % from 2016. The main thing midland has going for its growth in registered voters. But other counties have seen similar increases and are still improving on their 2016 participation. 

[Dahobbs 18190]

10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Midland is around 40% early voter turnout right now. It was 48% at the end of early voting in 2016. It will probably just about match that this year. That actually puts it behind other counties in terms of relative increase in participation. Harris, Travis, Bexar, Dallas, and El Paso have all already surpassed their early voting % from 2016. The main thing midland has going for its growth in registered voters. But other counties have seen similar increases and are still improving on their 2016 participation. 

In fact, other than Travis, Midland usually has more EV participation than those counties (or, at least did in 2016), but now significantly trails all of them except  El Paso. 

[MidTexHorn 822]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

In fact, other than Travis, Midland usually has more EV participation than those counties (or, at least did in 2016), but now significantly trails all of them except  El Paso. 

Double like

[immamac 44199]

I'll say this again. Turnout only helps 1 party and it's not the one doing everything they can to suppress votes

[Voldemort86 2259]

28 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'll say this again. Turnout only helps 1 party and it's not the one doing everything they can to suppress votes

I doubt it wins us Texas, but it definitely should help in a lot of other important states.

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Morning update from SoS has voter turnout at 7,802,505. This is 87% of the 8,969,226 total that showed out in 2016. There’s usually a small update around lunch time.

[HenryJames 67116]

 

[Nivek 17330]

 

3 hours ago, MidTexHorn said:

Republicans are turning out early in Midland. Here’s an article about early voting out there. The numbers are a drop in the bucket compared to the state on the whole, but they’re going to easily surpass 2018 and 2016 numbers, and they won’t be voting for Biden or MJ - Cruz got 77% of the vote in 2018. Interesting to see if this is playing out statewide and nationwide. Suspect voters are fired up on both sides to turn out. 
https://www.mrt.com/news/article/Number-of-early-voters-possibly-could-hit-50-000-15674284.php?fbclid=IwAR3KCPX1bYeD8JUtbQfxwra70wcRA12EZK30BZl9XY_Tu8lPtTXblYJsm3o

The volatility of the price of oil is only surpassed by the stupidity of its workers.   Republicans want to lease more lands, which will suppress prices further.   

[SydneyCarton 49325]

40 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

For those who have been asking about Lina Hidalgo, here's her excerpt from that article:

 

Quote

Early voting has exploded across all of these metro areas in 2020. Harris County has seen an especially dramatic outpouring. Hidalgo, a 29-year-old Democrat and immigrant from Colombia who ousted an older White Republican in 2018, says that in 2016, the county invested $4.1 million to run the election.

This year, the county increased that to $31 million, funding an extensive array of innovative measures that have eased access to the polls, from expanding early voting sites and keeping them open longer to allowing drive-thru voting and even holding a 24-hour voting session later this week. In the process, Harris County has become a powerful example of what voter participation might look like if governments affirmatively make voting more accessible.

 

"If you build it, people come, and we have lowered the barriers to entry, to safe, secure election," Hidalgo told me. "We see that when you lower the barriers, it wasn't that people were apathetic -- they were ready to participate -- but it was hard [to vote]."

With the county poised to soon surpass its total 2016 vote, Hidalgo says it's not unreasonable to ask how close it can come to the total voter registration of 2.3 million: "I don't see why, with this energy, we can't get as close as humanly possible to that full participation," she says.

 

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Chris Hollins and Lina Hidalgo are going to be very busy post election with large counties across the US reaching out to them for guidance in early voting measures. I don’t think they’ll have the same budget they did, but 24 hour voting centers on the first week (instead of last week here) drive through and curbside voting, just universal countywide locations voting in general.

[Dahobbs 18190]

 

 

[Pato del Muerto 53331]

13 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Nightly preview/estimate:

That second weekend dip isn’t bad at all.  Less of a decrease than the first, if you plot the weekdays as linear (and you’d get a decent r^2 value if you did).  Hoping for fairly flat week and the same Friday +1.5 spike.  Especially with the extended hours in Harris. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Dahobbs 18190]

8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That second weekend dip isn’t bad at all.  Less of a decrease than the first, if you plot the weekdays as linear (and you’d get a decent r^2 value if you did).  Hoping for fairly flat week and the same Friday +1.5 spike.  Especially with the extended hours in Harris. 

Travis County has a really good shot at exceeding its total turnout percentage from 2016 before early voting finishes. If election day is a typical turnout (big if), you could be looking at 80% turnout. 

[The Dog 44771]

BTW, Cohn is hedging a bit on that Texas poll they released. They noticed the differences in the Hispanic support as well and compared their findings to other polls that show a Biden lead.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Travis County has a really good shot at exceeding its total turnout percentage from 2016 before early voting finishes. If election day is a typical turnout (big if), you could be looking at 80% turnout. 

I've been hoping for 75%, but will be happy with 65%+

[Huckleberry 34407]

Final Monday update:

2020 Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 3,950,101 (50.6%)
Biden - 3,792,196 (48.6%)
Third Party - 61,293 (0.8%)

[Huckleberry 34407]

Texas only needs to average a little over 1.7% voter turnout each of the last 4 days of early voting in order for 2020 early voting total turnout (total voters, not percentage) to surpass the total number of voters in the 2016 election.

The SOS website reports 7,803,590 total votes so far. There were 8,969,226 in the 2016 Presidential election.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Ghost of LL 15664]

26 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

2020 Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 3,950,101 (50.6%)
Biden - 3,792,196 (48.6%)
Third Party - 61,293 (0.8%)

For the sake of clarification, Cruz beat Beto by 2.6%.  This indicates that Biden has cut into more than 20% of that deficit just by virtue of which counties are voting and which are not.  

Of course, this doesn't account for new voters or voters who may change their minds.

In all, it continues to be very encouraging.

[Neonmoon 38130]

9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Texas only needs to average a little over 1.7% voter turnout each of the last 4 days of early voting in order for 2020 early voting total turnout (total voters, not percentage) to surpass the total number of voters in the 2016 election.

The SOS website reports 7,803,590 total votes so far. There were 8,969,226 in the 2016 Presidential election.

Wow

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

For the sake of clarification, Cruz beat Beto by 2.6%.  This indicates that Biden has cut into more than 20% of that deficit just by virtue of which counties are voting and which are not.  

Of course, this doesn't account for new voters or voters who may change their minds.

In all, it continues to be very encouraging.

And early voting is at record levels and juiced beyond wildest dreams in all the blue areas. And he’s still down. You guys can’t win (This cycle or for the next cohoe) without some persuasion- I don’t think. Trump should help some with that. I’m going Trump by 2.5 points.