2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

34 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Final Monday update:

2020 Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 3,950,101 (50.6%)
Biden - 3,792,196 (48.6%)
Third Party - 61,293 (0.8%)

Comparing the last 2 Mondays, some counties have a steeper (>40%) daily decline (Collin, Brazoria, Galveston, Fort Bend) than others. Tarrant, Cameron, El Paso, Bexar and Hidalgo dropped less than 30%.  The point being that the counties that are north of "50% already voted", might be slowing down as there are fewer and fewer voters to expect to show up. 

disclaimer: I didn't run day by day analysis so the past 2 Mondays may be bad numbers to compare.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Dahobbs 18190]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And early voting is at record levels and juiced beyond wildest dreams in all the blue areas. And he’s still down. You guys can’t win (This cycle or for the next cohoe) without some persuasion- I don’t think. Trump should help some with that. I’m going Trump by 2.5 points. 

I don't think you understood his post. 

[texastough 1142]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

For the sake of clarification, Cruz beat Beto by 2.6%.  This indicates that Biden has cut into more than 20% of that deficit just by virtue of which counties are voting and which are not.  

Of course, this doesn't account for new voters or voters who may change their minds.

In all, it continues to be very encouraging.

So if only 1% who voted red last time vote blue, its a virtual dead heat? Then add in all the extra turnout, including turnout from young people? I'll go Biden by 3%

[Neonmoon 38130]

37 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Final Monday update:

2020 Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 3,950,101 (50.6%)
Biden - 3,792,196 (48.6%)
Third Party - 61,293 (0.8%)

This is assuming 2018 vote shares. The question is whether Biden could gain more than 2% vote share than 2018, correct?

[Huckleberry 34407]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And early voting is at record levels and juiced beyond wildest dreams in all the blue areas. And he’s still down. You guys can’t win (This cycle or for the next cohoe) without some persuasion- I don’t think. Trump should help some with that. I’m going Trump by 2.5 points. 

That's the question. I don't think Biden is down in Texas, if I had to bet on it I'd say that right now Biden is winning Texas based on already submitted votes.

The question is does Election Day turnout flip that, which I still think is yes.

Furthermore, early voting is at record levels and juiced in red areas, too. That's the only reason I think Biden has any chance whatsoever. Republican counties have also turned out like crazy so far. They're still down to the blue counties on turnout in 2020 compared to 2018.

Let's call 2020 early voting turnout to date divided by 2016 total turnout "relative turnout." So far, 2018 Republican counties are averaging 78.5% relative turnout while 2018 Democratic counties are averaging 79.5% relative turnout. Republican voters are swarming to the polls as well, but it's not enough to put this thing to bed yet.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think you understood his post. 

No- I understood his post. He’s got trump up 2 if the counties vote in the same proportion they did before. I was using that data as a jumping off point to argue against the Ray Dogs of the world that argue it’s all turnout - I’m saying it’s some turnout but you need persuasion. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

This is assuming 2018 vote shares. The question is whether Biden could gain more than 2% vote share than 2018, correct?

That’s what I’m saying is necessary. And I also would caveat that I think 2018 isn’t the  actual baseline because Trump wasn’t on the ballot and Beto was a darling of the media. 
So if you want to use 2.6% as the baseline then you aren’t taking about flipping Trump voters bc that baseline was 9- you are talking about flipping 2018 Cruz voters- if that makes sense. By using 2018 as a baseline you are already baking in some voters Trump leaked between 2016 and 2018. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Ted Lange 16353]

I wonder what the Texas numbers would’ve looked like with Beto running for President. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

14 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That's the question. I don't think Biden is down in Texas, if I had to bet on it I'd say that right now Biden is winning Texas based on already submitted votes.

The question is does Election Day turnout flip that, which I still think is yes.

Furthermore, early voting is at record levels and juiced in red areas, too. That's the only reason I think Biden has any chance whatsoever. Republican counties have also turned out like crazy so far. They're still down to the blue counties on turnout in 2020 compared to 2018.

Let's call 2020 early voting turnout to date divided by 2016 total turnout "relative turnout." So far, 2018 Republican counties are averaging 78.5% relative turnout while 2018 Democratic counties are averaging 79.5% relative turnout. Republican voters are swarming to the polls as well, but it's not enough to put this thing to bed yet.

Agreed. If I’m predicting 2.5 points then I obviously think it could go either way. I would guess you are still betting Trump to carry Texas?  I’d call it 2-1 but if you wanted to say 3/2 I wouldn’t argue. Anyone saying 50/50 and I’m putting my money down at the window and betting Trump. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

18 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

I wonder what the Texas numbers would’ve looked like with Beto running for President. 

Honestly I don’t think they’d be any better. Biden talks more like a middle of the road Texan than Beto on the issues, and the anti Trump sentiment is so high that I don’t see anyone on the left sitting it out. That’s simply my guess though, I could well be wrong. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[gmr548 16681]

That’s what I’m saying is necessary. And I also would caveat that I think 2018 isn’t the  actual baseline because Trump wasn’t on the ballot and Beto was a darling of the media. 
So if you want to use 2.6% as the baseline then you aren’t taking about flipping Trump voters bc that baseline was 9- you are talking about flipping 2018 Cruz voters- if that makes sense. By using 2018 as a baseline you are already baking in some voters Trump leaked between 2016 and 2018. 

I mean, how many Trump-Beto-Trump voters do you really think there are? 2018 is a better baseline because it captures the anti GOP shift in the suburbs.

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Trump told his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot in 2018. Then he got impeached.

people forget

Edited October 27, 2020 by StassneyHorn
Permanent in for on autocorrect

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I mean, how many Trump-Beto-Trump voters do you really think there are? 2018 is a better baseline because it captures the anti GOP shift in the suburbs.

No- that’s not what I’m saying- that’s wrong. I’m saying if you use 2018 as a baseline (and I’m not going to argue too hard against it though I think that’s slightly optimistic for Dems) that you aren’t talking about flipping Trump voters because that’s already baked into the Trump—> Beto —> Biden vote share you are using in 2018- I’m saying if you are using 2.6 then you need to flip some Cruz voters over to Biden. 
there aren’t any Trump/Beto/Trump voters. There are Trump/no vote/trump voters out there. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Dahobbs 18190]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I mean, how many Trump-Beto-Trump voters do you really think there are? 2018 is a better baseline because it captures the anti GOP shift in the suburbs.

I think the over-under starts at 0. 

[Irwin F Fletcher 3555]

28 minutes ago, texastough said:

So if only 1% who voted red last time vote blue, its a virtual dead heat? Then add in all the extra turnout, including turnout from young people? I'll go Biden by 3%

Add to that there was 406,311 (4.5%) third party votes in 2016, I'll be curious how that turnout looks this year.

[Neonmoon 38130]

2018 was pre-covid. You would think that colossal fuckup could move 2-3%? Hopefully 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

biden can win with zero people flipping their vote from 2016.  you have a ton of new voters and third party voters, and a couple hundred thousand dead from 2016.  i think all those groups help biden. 

[HOOKEM4 5151]

My 75 year old step father voted for a democrat for the first time in his life. Several of my old friends who are serial non-voters, went out and voted for Biden. If the shift doesn't happen this year, I would be surprised.

[Pato del Muerto 53331]

I wouldn’t bet a red cent on Biden winning Texas.
 

But this year, I also wouldn’t bet one plug nickel that trump wins Texas. 

gonna be a great watch in a week. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

I think it's to hard to say with any confidence where the Texas vote stands right now in terms of Trump v Biden. The Trump 2016 counties look to be overperforming right now, but they also seem to have many voters that didn't vote in 2016. Are those voters who fall in line with their neighbors? Do they disagree with their neighbors? Who knows.

While we're starting to get a decent idea of the early vote turnout now, we don't know if Election Day will be normal or did many of the those normal #s elect to vote by mail or early. 

The good thing is that we will have many answers in 1 week and a few hours.

[Huckleberry 34407]

30 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Agreed. If I’m predicting 2.5 points then I obviously think it could go either way. I would guess you are still betting Trump to carry Texas?  I’d call it 2-1 but if you wanted to say 3/2 I wouldn’t argue. Anyone saying 50/50 and I’m putting my money down at the window and betting Trump. 

Yes if I had to make an even odds bet I would take Trump. But I was more confident of that before the early voting numbers coming in. 538 has Biden with a 1-in-3 chance right now to win Texas. I can actually believe that at this point.

It is probably just noise, but the last couple of days have seen the 2018 based estimate move toward Biden. It's entirely possible (and makes sense to me based on the political mood) that Trump is running out of diehard supporters faster than Biden is running out of voters, particularly the anti-Trump portion.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Bookman 4754]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I wouldn’t bet a red cent on Biden winning Texas.

I would if I was getting the right odds.

[MidTexHorn 822]

My friend's dad, a lifelong Republican voter and semi-retired oil company exec, and also an atheist, called her to tell her he was at church and praying for ways short of him dying of Covid to make sure that Trump doesn't win.

As I've said before, my completely apolitical wife and sister, talk nonstop about how disgusting Trump is. My sister has already voted straight ticket D for the first time in her life, my wife will tomorrow.

I'm set to vote straight ticket Dem for the first time in my life. My kids all voted straight ticket Dem.

It's anecdotes like this that have never happened in my lifetime that make me really fucking curious to see how things go Tuesday. Maybe it doesn't mean shit, but here's to hoping it does.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yes if I had to make an even odds bet I would take Trump. But I was more confident of that before the early voting numbers coming in. 538 has Biden with a 1-in-3 chance right now to win Texas. I can actually believe that at this point.

Ha- I said 2-1 for Trump. My gut matched Nate Silvers league of dorks. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

5 minutes ago, Bookman said:

I would if I was getting the right odds.

This man understands betting. It's not about winning every bet. It's about getting the right odds to make any bet worthwhile even if you end up losing.

On PredictIt, you can buy Trump doesn't win Texas for 27 cents, which pays a $1 if that occurs. Good bet if you think biden has a 3 in 10 chance or better.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

Just saw Rove in fox right now- said he’s crunched all the early numbers and has trump up 3, maybe 4. Like him or don’t Karl Rove is really smart and knows Texas really well. It sounded plausible. Nobody knows for sure. Which of you can say that about Texas shows Trump has almost no shot of winning nationally. 

[HRSchenker 2331]

Question for those of you voting all blue. One of my local races is between a Republican and a Libertarian. No Democrat is running. When you see that choice, do you vote libertarian or skip it?

That's always fascinated me because my US House rep for the longest time never featured a Democrat. My friends who voted straight ticket technically haven't voted for their rep in years. With straight ticket voting being eliminated, I'm curious what some of you would do in that situation. 

[Huckleberry 34407]

Just now, HRSchenker said:

Question for those of you voting all blue. One of my local races is between a Republican and a Libertarian. No Democrat is running. When you see that choice, do you vote libertarian or skip it?

That's always fascinated me because my US House rep for the longest time never featured a Democrat. My friends who voted straight ticket technically haven't voted for their rep in years. With straight ticket voting being eliminated, I'm curious what some of you would do in that situation. 

Not sure what the Democrats on the board will say, but I for sure voted Libertarian in those cases. First that's probably because I am libertarian, but more importantly in this election I wanted to vote against a Republican wherever possible.

[Pescado_Rojo 19558]

Next Tuesday is going to be like the Rose Bowl...we just don't know if it's the 2006 or 2010 game. 

[MidTexHorn 822]

When I say I'm voting straight ticket Dem, what I mean is that I'm voting against any and all Republicans at every opportunity. So in this circumstance, I vote Libertarian, which I did for President last time out, much to my disgrace.

 

[LCHorn 2749]

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Not sure what the Democrats on the board will say, but I for sure voted Libertarian in those cases. First that's probably because I am libertarian, but more importantly in this election I wanted to vote against a Republican wherever possible.

This is what I've done, as well.  Low vote count totals relative to peer races make it more likely a Dem is willing to run against the incumbent in the next election (or so I hope). 

[Longhorn94 2478]

My take:

 

not one of Beto's voters will vote for Trump.

but 5+% of Cruz's voters will vote for Biden.

Biden wins Texas by 2.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Longhorn94

[Longhorn94 2478]

12 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Question for those of you voting all blue. One of my local races is between a Republican and a Libertarian. No Democrat is running. When you see that choice, do you vote libertarian or skip it?

That's always fascinated me because my US House rep for the longest time never featured a Democrat. My friends who voted straight ticket technically haven't voted for their rep in years. With straight ticket voting being eliminated, I'm curious what some of you would do in that situation. 

I voted for all Democrats and against all Republicans when a Dem wasnt running. because fuck the GOP.

[TexEx15 17914]

11 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Next Tuesday is going to be like the Rose Bowl...we just don't know if it's the 2006 or 2010 game. 

Fuck that.  I hope it’s the 2005 Big 12 championship vs. Colorado.  Texas goes to Biden = Klatt KO.

[Neonmoon 38130]

13 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Next Tuesday is going to be like the Rose Bowl...we just don't know if it's the 2006 or 2010 game. 

What about 2005?

[SimonBolivar 11031]

5 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

I voted for all Democrats and against all Republicans when a Dem wasnt running. because fuck the GOP.

Same and left the unopposed Rs blank.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

If Texas went blue for Biden this year, national republicans are going to be pissed and looking for people to blame. They do not want to spend the money in 2024 to win Texas back. There is probably a decent Texas would naturally shift right again without Trump on the ticket and perhaps anti-Biden sentiment by then.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Texas went blue for Biden this year, national republicans are going to be pissed and looking for people to blame. They do not want to spend the money in 2024 to win Texas back. There is probably a decent Texas would naturally shift right again without Trump on the ticket and perhaps anti-Biden sentiment by then.

They have to hope this is the case if there is any chance at all of them winning any future election. 

[Ghost of LL 15664]

57 minutes ago, texastough said:

So if only 1% who voted red last time vote blue, its a virtual dead heat? Then add in all the extra turnout, including turnout from young people? I'll go Biden by 3%

No.  Biden actually doesn't need anybody who voted for Trump in 2016 or Cruz in 2018 to vote for him.

Huckleberry's map is premised on every county voting the same as they did in 2018.  That means, for example, Harris County goes for Biden 58%-41.3%.  But here's the thing--in 2018, Harris County only cast roughly 1.2M votes.  Harris County is going to exceed that by the end of the day today.

So all those additional voters--who do you think they're voting for?  If you think they're voting in the exact same proportion as the people who actually did vote in 2018, then Huckleberry's model works swimmingly.  But if you think there's going to be some difference--and I can 100% guarantee you that there will be some difference--then the model doesn't work.

The trick is predicting who the difference will benefit.  And therein lies the difficulty.

54 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That's the question. I don't think Biden is down in Texas, if I had to bet on it I'd say that right now Biden is winning Texas based on already submitted votes.

The question is does Election Day turnout flip that, which I still think is yes.

Furthermore, early voting is at record levels and juiced in red areas, too. That's the only reason I think Biden has any chance whatsoever. Republican counties have also turned out like crazy so far. They're still down to the blue counties on turnout in 2020 compared to 2018.

Let's call 2020 early voting turnout to date divided by 2016 total turnout "relative turnout." So far, 2018 Republican counties are averaging 78.5% relative turnout while 2018 Democratic counties are averaging 79.5% relative turnout. Republican voters are swarming to the polls as well, but it's not enough to put this thing to bed yet.

I don't need you to guess.  According to the NYT/Siena Texas poll from earlier this week, Biden has a 7-point lead among people who have already voted (as of last Friday).

Here's the wild thing--Trump has a 17-point lead among the likely voters who have not yet voted, including a 29-point lead among those who say they are almost certain to vote.

So here's the fun thing to be gleaned from that--Biden probably has a big advantage among people who are "likely voters," but who tell the pollster that they are not "almost certain to vote."  That means that there are a whole bunch of people who Biden can still target and turnout.  It's why it's helpful to his campaign for you to have already voted--now you're out of that group and the campaign doesn't have to waste any resources getting you to the polls.

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Just saw Rove in fox right now- said he’s crunched all the early numbers and has trump up 3, maybe 4. Like him or don’t Karl Rove is really smart and knows Texas really well. It sounded plausible. Nobody knows for sure. Which of you can say that about Texas shows Trump has almost no shot of winning nationally. 

Karl Rove is the dumb motherfucker who didn't believe it in 2012 when Fox News called Ohio for Obama.  He doesn't know shit.

[Pescado_Rojo 19558]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Texas went blue for Biden this year, national republicans are going to be pissed and looking for people to blame. They do not want to spend the money in 2024 to win Texas back. There is probably a decent Texas would naturally shift right again without Trump on the ticket and perhaps anti-Biden sentiment by then.

2022 state wide races will tell us a lot about whether it's a natural shift or just Trump hate. If Ds pick up a couple statewide races in 2022, the Republicans are in trouble. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They have to hope this is the case if there is any chance at all of them winning any future election. 

100%. If the rest of the country stayed somewhat the same, and Texas goes blue (especially after the 2021 EC changes), the GOP has no chance at the white house.

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

I don’t see any universe where TX goes blue, but not also at least PA, WI, AZ, NV. Hell probably GA and SC too

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

No.  Biden actually doesn't need anybody who voted for Trump in 2016 or Cruz in 2018 to vote for him.

Huckleberry's map is premised on every county voting the same as they did in 2018.  That means, for example, Harris County goes for Biden 58%-41.3%.  But here's the thing--in 2018, Harris County only cast roughly 1.2M votes.  Harris County is going to exceed that by the end of the day today.

So all those additional voters--who do you think they're voting for?  If you think they're voting in the exact same proportion as the people who actually did vote in 2018, then Huckleberry's model works swimmingly.  But if you think there's going to be some difference--and I can 100% guarantee you that there will be some difference--then the model doesn't work.

The trick is predicting who the difference will benefit.  And therein lies the difficulty.

I don't need you to guess.  According to the NYT/Siena Texas poll from earlier this week, Biden has a 7-point lead among people who have already voted (as of last Friday).

Here's the wild thing--Trump has a 17-point lead among the likely voters who have not yet voted, including a 29-point lead among those who say they are almost certain to vote.

So here's the fun thing to be gleaned from that--Biden probably has a big advantage among people who are "likely voters," but who tell the pollster that they are not "almost certain to vote."  That means that there are a whole bunch of people who Biden can still target and turnout.  It's why it's helpful to his campaign for you to have already voted--now you're out of that group and the campaign doesn't have to waste any resources getting you to the polls.

Karl Rove is the dumb motherfucker who didn't believe it in 2012 when Fox News called Ohio for Obama.  He doesn't know shit.

Cmon man. He said it was a little early for that call at the time and wanted to see another couple places come in to be sure. The dude successfully ran what- 4 campaigns for W?  To say he doesn’t know shit (especially as it pertains to Texas) is really fucking dumb. 

[immamac 44199]

26 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Next Tuesday is going to be like the Rose Bowl...we just don't know if it's the 2006 or 2010 game. 

this is fucking incredible and doesn't have enough rep. Everyone rep this man.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

5 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

2022 state wide races will tell us a lot about whether it's a natural shift or just Trump hate. If Ds pick up a couple statewide races in 2022, the Republicans are in trouble. 

Maybe. Maybe not. There’s almost always a backlash against the incumbent in the first midterm so Dems could conceivably lose everything statewide but still be making up ground. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I don’t see any universe where TX goes blue, but not also at least PA, WI, AZ, NV. Hell probably GA and SC too

Of course not. Not in 2020. This is about how big the pile on is. It shows how Trump has lost this election resoundingly if we are having this discussion. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I don’t see any universe where TX goes blue, but not also at least PA, WI, AZ, NV. Hell probably GA and SC too

very different demographics in those states.  they don't necessarily move together.  e.g., hispanic votes moving one way affects Tx way more than the others.  you can imagine a lot of scenarios where political realignments affect those states very differently.

[Voldemort86 2259]

I have a weird opinion.

i think the Texas house will flip to the democrats based on these numbers, but I think Trump still wins Texas by 3.

good thing Biden doesn’t need Texas.

[Biff Tannen 46061]

6 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Chris Hollins and Lina Hidalgo are going to be very busy post election with large counties across the US reaching out to them for guidance in early voting measures. I don’t think they’ll have the same budget they did, but 24 hour voting centers on the first week (instead of last week here) drive through and curbside voting, just universal countywide locations voting in general.

 

4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

 

 

YEP

[Huckleberry 34407]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

I have a weird opinion.

i think the Texas house will flip to the democrats based on these numbers, but I think Trump still wins Texas by 3.

good thing Biden doesn’t need Texas.

That would be an interesting result. When do the new maps typically take effect? Are they in time for 2022 House elections or would it be 2024?