2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Biff Tannen 45500]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Next Tuesday is going to be like the Rose Bowl...we just don't know if it's the 2006 or 2010 game. 

Is there a fuck you pos rep?

[Dahobbs 17449]

52 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Not sure what the Democrats on the board will say, but I for sure voted Libertarian in those cases. First that's probably because I am libertarian, but more importantly in this election I wanted to vote against a Republican wherever possible.

Same.

[Dahobbs 17449]

43 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

My take:

 

not one of Beto's voters will vote for Trump.

but 5+% of Cruz's voters will vote for Biden.

Biden wins Texas by 2.

This is honestly my take as well. Although I think it is more like 1.5% + new voters leaning Biden

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Is there any tracking on people who are registered but are infrequent voters, who might be spurred into voting this year by the closeness of the race?

or is that as simple as total voters minus new voters minus previous total voters to get a decent estimate?

[gmr548 16518]

No- that’s not what I’m saying- that’s wrong. I’m saying if you use 2018 as a baseline (and I’m not going to argue too hard against it though I think that’s slightly optimistic for Dems) that you aren’t talking about flipping Trump voters because that’s already baked into the Trump—> Beto —> Biden vote share you are using in 2018- I’m saying if you are using 2.6 then you need to flip some Cruz voters over to Biden. 
there aren’t any Trump/Beto/Trump voters. There are Trump/no vote/trump voters out there. 

I guess I was more addressing your comment regarding 2018 being a baseline. It’s not apples to apples to 2016 because of the total number of voters, but the shift in suburban counties shows you that a decent number voters who went for Trump in 2016 went for Beto. So in that sense there has been persuasion of Trump voters because we know 90 percent of those are going Biden. On the other hand, I’m pretty goddamn confident that nearly every one of Cruz’s 4.2mm votes in 2018 was part of the 4.7mm for Trump in 2016. Cruz did not expand the base. I’m just not sure how much of that base there is left to tap into for the GOP. It’s a big state headed toward record turnout though, so who knows.

Side note - will say we have it good right now in that we have the intrigue of a swing state without being totally blanketed by political ads. Prepare your anus in 2022 and beyond.

[Bevo14 8274]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Is there a fuck you pos rep?

only for sooners

[Guest Lobo]

I think of the Old Man character in “the Road”, played on screen by Robert Duvall.  The father asks him if he ever wishes he would just die.  And The Old Man responds with, “this is no time to ask for such luxuries.”   

I’d love to get to vote my ideology in 2020 but We cannot afford such luxuries right now.  I look at what Trump turned the country into and like Duvall also says, “anyone looking for humanity...will find no humanity here...no sir.”

[SubliminalHorn 6675]

I reached out to my good friend in El Paso to make sure she has voted. She has and she took her mom and other family members, all first time voters. More anecdotes, but I got a feeling....

[Wulaw Horn 18983]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I guess I was more addressing your comment regarding 2018 being a baseline. It’s not apples to apples to 2016 because of the total number of voters, but the shift in suburban counties shows you that a decent number voters who went for Trump in 2016 went for Beto. So in that sense there has been persuasion of Trump voters because we know 90 percent of those are going Biden. On the other hand, I’m pretty goddamn confident that nearly every one of Cruz’s 4.2mm votes in 2018 was part of the 4.7mm for Trump in 2016. Cruz did not expand the base. I’m just not sure how much of that base there is left to tap into for the GOP. It’s a big state headed toward record turnout though, so who knows.

Side note - will say we have it good right now in that we have the intrigue of a swing state without being totally blanketed by political ads. Prepare your anus in 2022 and beyond.

I think 2018 is a better baseline than 2016, but I think the mark fits in between them. Call it somewhere between 4 and 5 which places it well closer to 18 than 16. 
also I bet you are off on your confidence in Cruz 4.2 million votes all coming from the same universe as trumps 4.7. That doesn’t take into effect voter attrition on one hand measured against new voters on the other hand. I bet he got at least 400k or 500k votes Trump didn’t get. 
 

[Huckleberry 32704]

35 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't need you to guess.  According to the NYT/Siena Texas poll from earlier this week, Biden has a 7-point lead among people who have already voted (as of last Friday).

Here's the wild thing--Trump has a 17-point lead among the likely voters who have not yet voted, including a 29-point lead among those who say they are almost certain to vote.

So here's the fun thing to be gleaned from that--Biden probably has a big advantage among people who are "likely voters," but who tell the pollster that they are not "almost certain to vote."  That means that there are a whole bunch of people who Biden can still target and turnout.  It's why it's helpful to his campaign for you to have already voted--now you're out of that group and the campaign doesn't have to waste any resources getting you to the polls.

The other problem is how many voters are left. If you say it's Biden +7 among those who have voted and Trump +17 among those who haven't yet voted, the problem becomes math.

7.8M people have already voted in Texas. Biden +7 gives Biden 4,174,921 votes to Trump's 3,628,669. In order for Trump +17 to overtake that 546,252 vote lead, there would have to be 3,213,247 voters remaining for a grand total of a final Texas turnout of 11,016,837 voters. That would be 65% turnout.

But doing that exercise means that the entire logic for Trump to overtake Biden is that higher turnout moving forward favors Trump. Which is possible but if the prediction that Election Day turnout favors Trump while early voting favors Biden is accurate, then Biden's voters have 4 more days to increase the lead and Trump's voters have one day to overcome it.

That's why I now think Texas is closer than I did a couple of weeks ago.

[Dahobbs 17449]

 

 

[gmr548 16518]

I have a weird opinion.
i think the Texas house will flip to the democrats based on these numbers, but I think Trump still wins Texas by 3.
good thing Biden doesn’t need Texas.

I think this is pretty mainstream. It adds up because the GOP gerrymander is built on the backs of blood red suburbs. Trump loses those, or at least enough ground that more populated Democratic areas aren’t cancelled out, and you get a flip of the house while Trump narrowly carries the state due to keeping margins decent along the border.

That would be an interesting result. When do the new maps typically take effect? Are they in time for 2022 House elections or would it be 2024?

They’ll be ready for 2022. They’re set by the lege in the 2020 legislative session, and if nothing comes from that, it is done by a five member board of potty Patrick (Lt. Gov.) Paxton (AG), Hegar (comptroller), GP Bush (GLO), and house speaker.

So honestly if the Democrats win the house I’d expect the GOP to just not agree to anything in session and instead let the LRB with its 4-1 GOP majority handle it. Now, that’d be immensely unpopular, more public than a plan moving through a GOP legislature as business as usual, and may cost a potty Patrick or Paxton in 2022. So while we may not be able to end the gerrymandering there’s still value in holding the house in the redistricting process.

[TexasEd 8064]

2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

I wonder what the Texas numbers would’ve looked like with Beto running for President. 

I think worse.

My theory is that Biden was the best candidate for the Dems this election if the goal is beat Trump.  He has consistently outperformed Trump since even before COVID.  I don't think Beto would outperform Biden in Texas.

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I think this is pretty mainstream. It adds up because the GOP gerrymander is built on the backs of blood red suburbs. Trump loses those, or at least enough ground that more populated Democratic areas aren’t cancelled out, and you get a flip of the house while Trump narrowly carries the state due to keeping margins decent along the border.



They’ll be ready for 2022. They’re set by the lege in the 2020 legislative session, and if nothing comes from that, it is done by a five member board of potty Patrick (Lt. Gov.) Paxton (AG), Hegar (comptroller), GP Bush (GLO), and house speaker.

So honestly if the Democrats win the house I’d expect the GOP to just not agree to anything in session and instead let the LRB with its 4-1 GOP majority handle it. Now, that’d be immensely unpopular, more public than a plan moving through a GOP legislature as business as usual, and may cost a potty Patrick or Paxton in 2022. So while we may not be able to end the gerrymandering there’s still value in holding the house in the redistricting process.

I think there’s a good chance potty Patrick and indictment Paxton lose in 2022 anyway. I don’t see republicans showing up in droves to protect them. Cruz will probably lose in 2024 as well. Lots of repubs and indies voted against him last time.

[gmr548 16518]

I think 2018 is a better baseline than 2016, but I think the mark fits in between them. Call it somewhere between 4 and 5 which places it well closer to 18 than 16. 
also I bet you are off on your confidence in Cruz 4.2 million votes all coming from the same universe as trumps 4.7. That doesn’t take into effect voter attrition on one hand measured against new voters on the other hand. I bet he got at least 400k or 500k votes Trump didn’t get. 
 

I mean the number isn’t literally zero obviously, people move, die, come of age, whatever. But he didn’t add 400-500k new voters when the overall electorate shrank by that same margin. That would imply a significant groundswell of support for Cruz specifically, long one of them most unpopular politicians in Texas and a guy who ran behind every other GOP statewide candidate. But from the same universe? Yes.

I think 4-5 is too high at this point. Gun to my head this ends up looking very much like the 2018 senate race, but I think it’s more likely to be a nail bitter than a 5 point race at this point. Texas is 10ish points right of the nation and we’re looking at a Biden +8 or so popular vote.

[Wulaw Horn 18983]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I mean the number isn’t literally zero obviously, people move, die, come of age, whatever. But he didn’t add 400-500k new voters when the overall electorate shrank by that same margin. That would imply a significant groundswell of support for Cruz specifically, long one of them most unpopular politicians in Texas and a guy who ran behind every other GOP statewide candidate. But from the same universe? Yes.

I think 4-5 is too high at this point. Gun to my head this ends up looking very much like the 2018 senate race, but I think it’s more likely to be a nail bitter than a 5 point race at this point. Texas is 10ish points right of the nation and we’re looking at a Biden +8 or so popular vote.

Oh I’m talking baseline. I think texas has moved further left and Trump is unpopular. I’ve got it at 2.5 for trump. 

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

I think worse.

My theory is that Biden was the best candidate for the Dems this election if the goal is beat Trump.  He has consistently outperformed Trump since even before COVID.  I don't think Beto would outperform Biden in Texas.

Absolutely right. Trump can't run "hell yeah we're going to take your guns" on repeat 24/7 against Biden. Beto would have gotten crushed. His POTUS campaign pulled him left of Texas

[Huckleberry 32704]

14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

 

That basically matches yesterday's number at the same time exactly.

[Ghost of LL 15493]

50 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Cmon man. He said it was a little early for that call at the time and wanted to see another couple places come in to be sure. The dude successfully ran what- 4 campaigns for W?  To say he doesn’t know shit (especially as it pertains to Texas) is really fucking dumb. 

Rove is a great strategist.  He's a lousy pundit.

He will absolutely figure out which figures among the evangelicals need to be persuaded/coopted.  He'll put together a good tagline and message.  But if you want someone to tell you about the polling and what it means, that's Matthew Dowd.

15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The other problem is how many voters are left. If you say it's Biden +7 among those who have voted and Trump +17 among those who haven't yet voted, the problem becomes math.

7.8M people have already voted in Texas. Biden +7 gives Biden 4,174,921 votes to Trump's 3,628,669. In order for Trump +17 to overtake that 546,252 vote lead, there would have to be 3,213,247 voters remaining for a grand total of a final Texas turnout of 11,016,837 voters. That would be 65% turnout.

But doing that exercise means that the entire logic for Trump to overtake Biden is that higher turnout moving forward favors Trump. Which is possible but if the prediction that Election Day turnout favors Trump while early voting favors Biden is accurate, then Biden's voters have 4 more days to increase the lead and Trump's voters have one day to overcome it.

That's why I now think Texas is closer than I did a couple of weeks ago.

Thank you for doing the math.

Yeah--there is definitely something very wonky about those numbers.  I can believe that we're going to have 11M voters.  In fact, I could believe that we're going to see a lot more.  Which would mean that NYT/Siena has a bunch of people as "non-likely voters" who are actually voting.

And this is where the MOE comes into play.  This thing is pretty tight.  Don't let anyone tell you different.  And so every vote matters.

[elfenix 34174]

50 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I have a weird opinion.

i think the Texas house will flip to the democrats based on these numbers, but I think Trump still wins Texas by 3.

good thing Biden doesn’t need Texas.

i could see that happening with how gerrymanders work. 

 

48 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That would be an interesting result. When do the new maps typically take effect? Are they in time for 2022 House elections or would it be 2024?

22

 

44 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Is there a fuck you pos rep?

closest is rage+1

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by elfenix

[Aqua Buddha 14523]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Rove is a great strategist.  He's a lousy pundit.

He will absolutely figure out which figures among the evangelicals need to be persuaded/coopted.  He'll put together a good tagline and message.  But if you want someone to tell you about the polling and what it means, that's Matthew Dowd.

Thank you for doing the math.

Yeah--there is definitely something very wonky about those numbers.  I can believe that we're going to have 11M voters.  In fact, I could believe that we're going to see a lot more.  Which would mean that NYT/Siena has a bunch of people as "non-likely voters" who are actually voting.

And this is where the MOE comes into play.  This thing is pretty tight.  Don't let anyone tell you different.  And so every vote matters.

Yes, and he's the one on ABC This Week that said Biden was going to win Texas before Trump wins PA and they almost all had an aneurysm.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think it's to hard to say with any confidence where the Texas vote stands right now in terms of Trump v Biden. The Trump 2016 counties look to be overperforming right now, but they also seem to have many voters that didn't vote in 2016. Are those voters who fall in line with their neighbors? Do they disagree with their neighbors? Who knows.

I have a hard time believing that there were Trump supporters who sat 2016 out - Hillary was on the ballot.  Given that we knew Trump would win in 2016, how many moderate/liberate voters threw up their hands and said "fuck it" and didn't bother?

Austin gets 50,000 or so people moving into the area every year - that's 150,000-200,000 people since 2016.  While plenty were from other parts of Texas, plenty were also from out-of-state (and I know Houston picked up plenty of out-of-staters).  Plenty of those will be blue.  Of course, Dallas pulls in a lot of Okies, so maybe that counters that, I don't know.  But toss in the number of olds that die every year since 2016, etc.

I just think that Trump is close to, or at his cap on voters - few Dems are going to switch over to him.  But this whole shitshow he has been running, plus covid, has probably put a lot of doubt in the minds of many of the more moderate Rs.

It's still amazing that we are talking about whether Biden can win Texas.  That's my takeaway from all of this.

[elfenix 34174]

45 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

only for sooners

remember to give @ChiTownDoc a at every opportunity.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

i think the fever pitch of the trump brand pulls in new voters.  all those 10,000 person towns where everyone is driving around with a flag. . . i can see that motivating people to jump onboard for the big win that didn't last time.

[Dahobbs 17449]

17 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 And so every vote matters.

Except @Wulaw Horn's.

 

 

 

Sorry, had to do it. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Just saw Rove in fox right now- said he’s crunched all the early numbers and has trump up 3, maybe 4. Like him or don’t Karl Rove is really smart and knows Texas really well. It sounded plausible. Nobody knows for sure. Which of you can say that about Texas shows Trump has almost no shot of winning nationally. 

I don't trust Rove on any numbers.  He's not out there to be a pollster, he's out there to be a Republican strategist.

If he thinks the GOP needs a shot in the arm, he'll push numbers that show Trump is in a close race (or even losing), and therefore the Trump supporters will feel pressured to vote.  Trump supporters watching will think "hmmm... "3% seems close, I better vote!"

He's not going to push higher numbers that depress GOP turnout, unless he truly thinks Trump has it in the bag.

Edited October 27, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[SydneyCarton 47889]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I have a hard time believing that there were Trump supporters who sat 2016 out - Hillary was on the ballot.  Given that we knew Trump would win in 2016, how many moderate/liberate voters threw up their hands and said "fuck it" and didn't bother?

Austin gets 50,000 or so people moving into the area every year - that's 150,000-200,000 people since 2016.  While plenty were from other parts of Texas, plenty were also from out-of-state (and I know Houston picked up plenty of out-of-staters).  Plenty of those will be blue.  Of course, Dallas pulls in a lot of Okies, so maybe that counters that, I don't know.  But toss in the number of olds that die every year since 2016, etc.

I just think that Trump is close to, or at his cap on voters - few Dems are going to switch over to him.  But this whole shitshow he has been running, plus covid, has probably put a lot of doubt in the minds of many of the more moderate Rs.

It's still amazing that we are talking about whether Biden can win Texas.  That's my takeaway from all of this.

 

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i think the fever pitch of the trump brand pulls in new voters.  all those 10,000 person towns where everyone is driving around with a flag. . . i can see that motivating people to jump onboard for the big win that didn't last time.

I believe it is 100% as Underminer has demonstrated. I think lots of dipshit who didn't vote and didn't care have jumped onboard the MAGA train. QAnon wasn't a thing 4 years ago either, at this level. And yet, here we are...

[SydneyCarton 47889]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Except @Wulaw Horn's.

 

 

 

Sorry, had to do it. 

 

Well, it doesn't count because he's not voting, so, you know...

[Dahobbs 17449]

23 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That basically matches yesterday's number at the same time exactly.

Yeah, also fits the pattern from previous years of Monday through Wednesday of the last week being sort of flat before jumping up on Thursday and Friday. 

It'll be interesting to see the effect of the extended hours today and whether it counteracts that effect. May give us a preview of 24 hours of voting. 

[ChiTownDoc 21102]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i think the fever pitch of the trump brand pulls in new voters.  all those 10,000 person towns where everyone is driving around with a flag. . . i can see that motivating people to jump onboard for the big win that didn't last time.

 

[Dahobbs 17449]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

 

Does everyone else assume that anyone with a political bumper stick (or really more than one bumper sticker of any sort) is a fucking idiot? 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Texas went blue for Biden this year, national republicans are going to be pissed and looking for people to blame. They do not want to spend the money in 2024 to win Texas back. There is probably a decent Texas would naturally shift right again without Trump on the ticket and perhaps anti-Biden sentiment by then.

If it's 2024, Harris might be in play (sorry to be that asshole, not saying he's going to die of old age, but he could decide to sit out 2024).

Trump is going to torch everything on his way out the door.  He will hold some rallies where he lays into people like Cruz, Graham, Cornyn, etc. for costing him the election, because he will not accept any responsibility for any losses.

And there's a half-decent chance that when Trump loses, and he trashes the shit out of various Republicans, that a number of his followers will turn their backs on those Republicans.  They will absolutely hold a grudge, and their God King Emperor Trump is out of office because those Republicans somehow betrayed him.  Hell, some of them will vote against the GOP out of spite (think some of the really bitter Hillary fans you knew in 2008, who voted for McCain).

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

That’s a PA plate I believe. Good luck, I’m sure your 1 vote on Tuesday will really go far. 

[Huckleberry 32704]

When Texas goes for the Democrats someday there will certainly be a snapback in the following election. But the question will be how much of the motivated Republican voters effect for that next election is countered by the "holy shit we actually win now" frontrunning effect of Democratic voters.

[ChiTownDoc 21102]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Does everyone else assume that anyone with a political bumper stick (or really more than one bumper sticker of any sort) is a fucking idiot? 

2 means you’re a fucking idiot.  Any more than 2, you have Down’s and we should be nice to you while wiping the mustard off your cheeks.  

[atomheartbevo 89452]

55 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Is there any tracking on people who are registered but are infrequent voters, who might be spurred into voting this year by the closeness of the race?

or is that as simple as total voters minus new voters minus previous total voters to get a decent estimate?

It's public whether you voted, and which elections you voted in (primaries, general), just not who you voted for.

They can compare voters here in 2020 and see what past elections they voted in.  That's where some of the numbers are coming from.    And not knowing who they voted for in particular doesn't have to skew the numbers - if they voted in Dem primaries in the past, and then skipped some elections (mid-terms, etc.), they will probably be voting for Biden, etc.

[SydneyCarton 47889]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

I feel like the obstructed view means that isn't a street legal vehicle and they could be ticketed. 

[SimonBolivar 10937]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Does everyone else assume that anyone with a political bumper stick (or really more than one bumper sticker of any sort) is a fucking idiot? 

Sometimes

 

[ChiTownDoc 21102]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s a PA plate I believe. Good luck, I’m sure your 1 vote on Tuesday will really go far. 

From a cardiologist I went to school with. I posted his text screenshots earlier.  He’s a hardcore trumptard.  He sends me that truck pic and doesn’t see the irony.  

[elfenix 34174]

that truck is pretty clean for being a 20 year old salt-belt S10.  trump shit notwithstanding. 

[gmr548 16518]

i think the fever pitch of the trump brand pulls in new voters.  all those 10,000 person towns where everyone is driving around with a flag. . . i can see that motivating people to jump onboard for the big win that didn't last time.

Between this and the fact that not voting in a non competitive state is a two way street, there are definitely additional Trump votes out there. How many, though? Five million might not be enough with the turnout trends we have now, and that’s several hundred thousand, possibly approaching one million new voters from 2016 between suburban defection and natural electoral turnover.

I’m still thinking Trump wins here but I’m with Huck in that what data we do have along with campaign actions is kind of a flashing red light.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't trust Rove on any numbers.  He's not out there to be a pollster, he's out there to be a Republican strategist.

If he thinks the GOP needs a shot in the arm, he'll push numbers that show Trump is in a close race, and therefore the Trump supporters will feel pressured to vote.  Trump supporters watching Fox News will think "hmmm... "3% seems close, I better vote!"

He's not going to push higher numbers that depress GOP turnout, unless he truly thinks Trump has it in the bag.

Not too mention that Rove has some big deals working that might be dependent on Trump being re-elected. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/politics/white-house-5g-spectrum-no-bid-contract-rivada/index.html

the end result is that Rove isn't going to report any truth but rather he only wants to motivate more republicans to vote.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I believe it is 100% as Underminer has demonstrated. I think lots of dipshit who didn't vote and didn't care have jumped onboard the MAGA train. QAnon wasn't a thing 4 years ago either, at this level. And yet, here we are...

Given that qanon members are also Trump supporters (it's literally a foundational aspect of Q, that Trump will save that day), the ones who would actually vote, would have voted for Trump then.   

Or to put it a different way:  Had there been no President Trump, and no Trump supporters, there would have been no Qanon movement.  It came out of Trump supporters.

Plus, I've seen more than a few Q types who are all anti-government, want to be "off the grid", etc., and don't trust voting information not falling into the hands of their enemies.  Remember, these are Alex Jones fans on acid.  Plenty really do believe that things like your voting information is going to be used against you in the future, because, and wait for it.....Deep State.

If they think Texas is trending blue, do they want a blue state knowing they voted for Trump?  Makes it easy to round up Trump supporters.... (these are not sane people after all).

[atomheartbevo 89452]

The qanon idiots were also around prior to 2016.  They are Jade Helm idiots, we just didn't have a specific movement to lump them in.

While they were bitching that the sekrut special operations training being doing by the military in civilian areas was really about the military getting ready to throw people in underground Walmart detention centers, the rest of us were pulling out maps, looking at where the military said they would be doing exercises, and realizing that the overall area was about the size of Syria/Iraq.

And low and behold, we sent special operations folks into Syria.  Meanwhile, the Jade Helm idiots morphed into Trump supporters/qanon idiots.

[TexasEd 8064]

I think the argument about Texas shift being a one-time anti-Trump versus something with more momentum can be measured by the outcome of the Cornyn-Hegar race.  The way it is polling it seems fueled more by Anti-trump than pro D which also matches with the anecdotal stories we are all telling.

[SydneyCarton 47889]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Given that qanon members are also Trump supporters (it's literally a foundational aspect of Q, that Trump will save that day), the ones who would actually vote, would have voted for Trump then.   

Or to put it a different way:  Had there been no President Trump, and no Trump supporters, there would have been no Qanon movement.  It came out of Trump supporters.

Plus, I've seen more than a few Q types who are all anti-government, want to be "off the grid", etc., and don't trust voting information not falling into the hands of their enemies.  Remember, these are Alex Jones fans on acid.  Plenty really do believe that things like your voting information is going to be used against you in the future, because, and wait for it.....Deep State.

If they think Texas is trending blue, do they want a blue state knowing they voted for Trump?  Makes it easy to round up Trump supporters.... (these are not sane people after all).

You're going down the wrong path from what I had intended. Q was simply an example of something that barely existed 4 years ago that is now a full blown thing. I'm using that as a phenomenon to compare to Trumpism as a thing from 4 years ago that would also have tailwinds to attract new folks who never considered voting before as well. I'm not conflating the two, even though they have a fuck ton of overlap. 4 years ago a bunch of racist burnout dipshits who didn't vote might have found Their People  in trump and will now vote. That's not unrealistic, or even unlikely. 

 

[TexasEd 8064]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Is there any tracking on people who are registered but are infrequent voters, who might be spurred into voting this year by the closeness of the race?

Yes.  I posted this before but the county clerks and secretary of state track if you are new to Texas, how long you have been registered, when was the last time you voted, which primaries have you voted in (if any), etc.

[Biff Tannen 45500]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't trust Rove on any numbers.  He's not out there to be a pollster, he's out there to be a Republican strategist.

If he thinks the GOP needs a shot in the arm, he'll push numbers that show Trump is in a close race, and therefore the Trump supporters will feel pressured to vote.  Trump supporters watching Fox News will think "hmmm... "3% seems close, I better vote!"

He's not going to push higher numbers that depress GOP turnout, unless he truly thinks Trump has it in the bag.

This is what sucks about polls in general.  They can be self-perpetuating.  Self-fulfilling?  A word like that.  They persuade people based on what other people are doing.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You're going down the wrong path from what I had intended. Q was simply an example of something that barely existed 4 years ago that is now a full blown thing. I'm using that as a phenomenon to compare to Trumpism as a thing from 4 years ago that would also have tailwinds to attract new folks who never considered voting before as well. I'm not conflating the two, even though they have a fuck ton of overlap. 4 years ago a bunch of racist burnout dipshits who didn't vote might have found Their People  in trump and will now vote. That's not unrealistic, or even unlikely. 

Where were these people in 2008 when a half-black Muslim, atheist, Marxist, Socialist, Democratic, closeted homosexual born in Kenya, raised in Indonesia, and planted in Hawaii was running for the White House?

Why weren't they able to lift a Vietnam war hero over Obama?

I agree that Trump taps into something within them, but I would have thought Obama would have triggered the fuck out of them.

[hornfromdallas 334]

1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I reached out to my good friend in El Paso to make sure she has voted. She has and she took her mom and other family members, all first time voters. More anecdotes, but I got a feeling....

are they voting the entire ballot or leaving it blank & just voting president?

all of the first time voters from the hood i grew up in are not voting on any other part of the ballot except president