2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[gmr548 16,681]

If rove is saying trump is only plus 3 In Texas that means trump is losing.

This. Which isn’t out of line with polling data or expectations. Biden will have a lead when early votes are released just like Beto. It probably won’t last but it’ll exist for a moment. GOP has made a point to own Election Day this year.

[The Dog 44,771]

 

The link shows all state house districts nationwide. Look for the ones bordered in yellow for flips. They have 7 R -> D flips predicted in Texas.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34,079]

dope. hope it happens

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

 

[Beau Vine 55,824]

.

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

Holy fuck.

He got another one.

This is down ballot.

and I found it here.

Strange days Indeed 

[Huckleberry 34,407]

Nightly estimate/preview:

 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Huckleberry

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

That's a pretty sharp spike there sir.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34,079]

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Nightly estimate/preview:

ell oh fucking ell - I searched "I can't see shit" and this was one of the results. I nearly spit out my graham cracker.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34,079]

so I'm the only that can't see huck's links?

[Pato del Muerto 53,331]

2 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

so I'm the only that can't see huck's links?

I sees it

[royiv 9,687]

Am I the only one who very quickly scrolls through every one of @Wulaw Horn's posts on the political threads? How is anyone interested in his mental masturbation while he acts pious for being some sort of conscientious objector? Take a stand and vote. If you don't vote in an election, you're a coward plain and simple. Take a stand. Standing on the sidelines isn't a stand.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34,079]

1 minute ago, royiv said:

Am I the only one who very quickly scrolls through every one of @Wulaw Horn's posts on the political threads? How is anyone interested in his mental masturbation while he acts pious for being some sort of conscientious objector? Take a stand and vote. If you don't vote in an election, you're a coward plain and simple. Take a stand. Standing on the sidelines isn't a stand.

seconded

this just isn't the time for mediocrity or moral stands. fucking vote.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Longhorn_Fan68

[Huckleberry 34,407]

Harris County just nosed ahead of its total 2018 vote count today. Roughly 100K to go to match 2016, so should pass that on Thursday.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Huckleberry 34,407]

In 2016 early voting, the 15 most populous counties had a total of just under 4.5 million votes. In 2018 it was just over 4.1 million.

In 2020 so far, the 15 most populous counties have a total of nearly 5.6 million votes to this point.

Of course the interesting part, as mentioned dozens of times, will be the effect on Election Day voting, but seemed worth mentioning.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

12 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

ell oh fucking ell - I searched "I can't see shit" and this was one of the results. I nearly spit out my graham cracker.

That's what I get for leaving the curtains wide open.

[immamac 44,199]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

In 2016 early voting, the 15 most populous counties had a total of just under 4.5 million votes. In 2018 it was just over 4.1 million.

In 2020 so far, the 15 most populous counties have a total of nearly 5.6 million votes to this point.

Of course the interesting part, as mentioned dozens of times, will be the effect on Election Day voting, but seemed worth mentioning.

turnout in Texas is historic on many levels and with many demographics that have been under-represented and apathetic to voting. All of the polls in Texas for "likely voters" are completely wrong because of this IMHO.

I think people underestimate the Indian-American population and citizens that live all over Texas, they will likely lean towards Kamala Harris ticket even if they were Apathetic in most elections simply because of heritage and the opportunity to have an Indian-American be the VP.

[TexEx15 17,913]

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

turnout in Texas is historic on many levels and with many demographics that have been under-represented and apathetic to voting. All of the polls in Texas for "likely voters" are completely wrong because of this IMHO.

I think people underestimate the Indian-American population and citizens that live all over Texas, they will likely lean towards Kamala Harris ticket even if they were Apathetic in most elections simply because of heritage and the opportunity to have an Indian-American be the VP.

I think this is a good point.  At this point it appears it will take systemic polling errors for trump to win.  But you have to wonder would those systemic polling errors not actually favor Biden this time for the reason you just described.  Trumps not the outsider this year and damn sure is not running against a Clinton.  His base is a cult but his base is not enough to win if people vote and it looks like that is happening.

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

4 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I think this is a good point.  At this point it appears it will take systemic polling errors for trump to win.  But you have to wonder would those systemic polling errors not actually favor Biden this time for the reason you just described.  Trumps not the outsider this year and damn sure is not running against a Clinton.  His base is a cult but his base is not enough to win if people vote and it looks like that is happening.

Systematic polling error is equally likely in either direction of the pollsters are trying to get it right. I think you are correct that there’s easily a chance that there’s a big polling error hiding a potential Dem wave in some places. Much more likely Joe goes 400 plus than sub 270. 

[RayDog 682]

Texas is headed toward 9 million plus voting early. If half the older Republican voters waited for election day, Texas will top 11.5 million. If it falls anywhere between 11 and 12 million that means 3 to 4 million who did not vote in 2016 or 2018. Most of those voters voted early and are in Democratic majority counties that went 60/40 for Beto.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5,164]

1 hour ago, royiv said:

Am I the only one who very quickly scrolls through every one of @Wulaw Horn's posts on the political threads? How is anyone interested in his mental masturbation while he acts pious for being some sort of conscientious objector? Take a stand and vote. If you don't vote in an election, you're a coward plain and simple. Take a stand. Standing on the sidelines isn't a stand.

I will never understand why y’all implore wulaw to go show up at the polls and cancel out your vote. You do you but I’m not saying shit to anyone I’m not 100% sure is voting the same as me til after it’s too late for them to vote. Wait til next Wednesday to give him shit, but shut the fuck up about it til then. 

[royiv 9,687]

9 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

I will never understand why y’all implore wulaw to go show up at the polls and cancel out your vote. You do you but I’m not saying shit to anyone I’m not 100% sure is voting the same as me til after it’s too late for them to vote. Wait til next Wednesday to give him shit, but shut the fuck up about it til then. 

I get what you're saying. I totally do, but you may have missed my point of asking does anyone pay attention to his endless diarrhea of super intelligent posts?

My point was who the fuck reads his endless drivel of prognostication when he's obviously dumber than a box of used tampons? The dude doesn't understand the basic principles of democracy. This isn't sports handicapping and the only race isn't at the top of the ticket. Then again, this is the guy who turned an RV into a convertible and currently owns a fast depreciating asset that lives somewhere in New England. He seems like the perfect moron to take care of all my mortgage needs.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5,164]

Yeah didn’t address that. I skim his posts and don’t ask him to go vote. That’s my strategy.

[thepop 4,418]

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

55 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

Keep em coming. The more Travis votes the better.

[SydneyCarton 49,325]

8 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Holy fuck.

He got another one.

This is down ballot.

and I found it here.

Strange days Indeed 

These are fun, but I don’t believe they’re real at all. Aggy visiting fan fiction. 

[texastough 1,142]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

These are fun, but I don’t believe they’re real at all. Aggy visiting fan fiction. 

What don't you believe -- that some MAGAers are on Medicaid?

[SydneyCarton 49,325]

Just now, texastough said:

What don't you believe -- that some MAGAers are on Medicaid?

That a guy headed to a maga rally was willing to have a calm, thoughtful conversation about his beliefs and when he was forced to question them he calmly considered his misconceptions and politely left. 
 

I believe the more realistic scenario was about halfway through that conversation he got angry, searches around for a folding chair, and beat the candidate like his favorite WWE star would have done. 

[gmr548 16,681]

I think this is a good point.  At this point it appears it will take systemic polling errors for trump to win.  But you have to wonder would those systemic polling errors not actually favor Biden this time for the reason you just described.  Trumps not the outsider this year and damn sure is not running against a Clinton.  His base is a cult but his base is not enough to win if people vote and it looks like that is happening.

Systematic polling error is equally likely in either direction of the pollsters are trying to get it right. I think you are correct that there’s easily a chance that there’s a big polling error hiding a potential Dem wave in some places. Much more likely Joe goes 400 plus than sub 270. 

FWIW, district level polls (which I didn’t follow much in 2016) were the canary in the coal mine regarding Clinton’s underperformance. This year they’re taking the opposite story - a Biden lead larger than state or national polls indicate. Just one measure though.

[Bookman 4,754]

Four years ago I stopped watching the polls the week before the election because they showed a lot of momentum to Trump. I haven't seen that in the current polls.

But then again what do I know.

[Huckleberry 34,407]

Final Tuesday report (El Paso County did not show up, number is so low I'll be checking their county site later):

2020 Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,130,377 (50.5%)
Biden - 3,976,287 (48.7%)
Third Party - 64,224 (0.8%)

That is a third straight day of the margin moving toward Biden. Might be nothing, might be a signal that Republican strongholds are running out of enthusiastic voters faster than Democratic strongholds.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,707]

5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Final Tuesday report (El Paso County did not show up, number is so low I'll be checking their county site later):

2020 Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,130,377 (50.5%)
Biden - 3,976,287 (48.7%)
Third Party - 64,224 (0.8%)

That is a third straight day of the margin moving toward Biden. Might be nothing, might be a signal that Republican strongholds are running out of enthusiastic voters faster than Democratic strongholds.

I imagine both sides are working hard to get people to show up at the polls but like you said maybe the republicans are finding fewer and fewer people to motivate.

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

40 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

These are fun, but I don’t believe they’re real at all. Aggy visiting fan fiction. 

They happened in front of witnesses 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Final Tuesday report (El Paso County did not show up, number is so low I'll be checking their county site later):

 

El Paso is under a lot of COVID stress right now. There may have been some restrictions put in place. I know they'd rather not slow the vote, but the latest surge is bad enough that it made our news and I'm in a fairly Trumpy area.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins
Edit- curfew it looks like: https://news.yahoo.com/el-paso-residents-under-curfew-214900082.html

[SydneyCarton 49,325]

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

They happened in front of witnesses 

Maybe, MAYBE that explains why he didn’t go for the folding chair. 
 

it’s just that in my experience, gotcha moments or things of true revelation rarely happen so cleanly. 

[Huckleberry 34,407]

15 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

The other problem is how many voters are left. If you say it's Biden +7 among those who have voted and Trump +17 among those who haven't yet voted, the problem becomes math.

7.8M people have already voted in Texas. Biden +7 gives Biden 4,174,921 votes to Trump's 3,628,669. In order for Trump +17 to overtake that 546,252 vote lead, there would have to be 3,213,247 voters remaining for a grand total of a final Texas turnout of 11,016,837 voters. That would be 65% turnout.

But doing that exercise means that the entire logic for Trump to overtake Biden is that higher turnout moving forward favors Trump. Which is possible but if the prediction that Election Day turnout favors Trump while early voting favors Biden is accurate, then Biden's voters have 4 more days to increase the lead and Trump's voters have one day to overcome it.

That's why I now think Texas is closer than I did a couple of weeks ago.

Update: Based on new vote totals, IF current votes are Biden +7 then Trump would need 3,364,483 more voters to vote breaking at +17 for him. That would mean a total of 11,535,371 Texas voters and 68% turnout.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Huckleberry

[BradInATX 9,208]

Update: Based on new vote totals, IF current votes are Biden +7 then Trump would need 3,364,483 more voters to vote breaking at +17 for him. That would mean a total of 11,535,371 Texas voters and 68% turnout.

Are you using 16 or 18 splits? I can't remember

[Huckleberry 34,407]

For that post I'm using neither. The recent DMN/UT-Tyler poll stated that already voted was +7 Biden and likely voters who haven't voted yet is +17 Trump.

For the 2020 estimate in the post with charts I'm using 2018 splits. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Huckleberry

[StassneyHorn 6,755]

Up to approx 90% of the total vote from 2016 on the SoS metrics. They still show 0 in Travis Co. for in person yesterday and other places. Noon update should be over 90.

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

FWIW, district level polls (which I didn’t follow much in 2016) were the canary in the coal mine regarding Clinton’s underperformance. This year they’re taking the opposite story - a Biden lead larger than state or national polls indicate. Just one measure though.

 

 

Yeah. Or if you look at what they are doing in the campaigns you can also get a measure of what’s going on. 
Of course- the Trump campaign thought they were losing until after the polls closed last time around so don’t count on them to necessarily be the most informed group of people in the room. 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Up to approx 90% of the total vote from 2016 on the SoS metrics. They still show 0 in Travis Co. for in person yesterday and other places. Noon update should be over 90.

 

[Snake Diggity 4,698]

Still think Trump wins Texas.  But it’s close enough that something dramatic on Election Day (like a brutal winter storm) could be the difference.  Dems should be praying for extremely low Election Day turnout because they are very likely winning on early voting.  Still think it’ll be Trump +3.  Hope I’m wrong.

[immamac 44,199]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 

I mean is there any chance for trump if 11.5M people vote instead of 9?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,707]

Based on the trends this week, I assume that after the last day of early voting, Huck's report should be around Trump 50.2 and Biden 49. Friday (last day) is a huge unknown but should be up across the board.  

Basically if Biden can outperform Beto by slightly over 1%, he could take Texas.  I realize that many people think that no one new is voting for trump but i don't think that is the case. Now I doubt many Hillary or Beto voters switch to Trump but I guarantee that they are Texas Trump fans that didn't vote in 2016 but they've been convinced to vote this year by friends.

 

[The Dog 44,771]

Cross posting because, relevant to topic:

 

[Bevo14 8,468]

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

That a guy headed to a maga rally was willing to have a calm, thoughtful conversation about his beliefs and when he was forced to question them he calmly considered his misconceptions and politely left. 
 

I believe the more realistic scenario was about halfway through that conversation he pulled a gun on some unarmed teenaged girls off to the side who proceeded to kick his ass. 

Fify

[Guest Lobo]

I'm just not that excited about these numbers.  Yeah, we matched early voting numbers of 2016 a week early.  But we started a week earlier, plus added a Sunday.  I want to believe, but we had about the same number in about the same hours of early voting.

Now, I will say this GOP Election Day surprise is largely shallow.  Election Day is no longer really 'Election Day' in most states, it's just the last day of voting and the first day of reporting.  It's not the Grand Gesture some old school folks think it is anymore.  Progress has seen to that.  Also, the day after Election Day this year should be the federal holiday, because it's gonna be a long and booze-fueled night. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

9 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm just not that excited about these numbers.  Yeah, we matched early voting numbers of 2016 a week early.  But we started a week earlier, plus added a Sunday.  I want to believe, but we had about the same number in about the same hours of early voting.

yes.  but there are more days.

this has a very 'but its got electrolytes' vibe to it.

[Dahobbs 18,185]

 

Harris running a bit behind yesterday early on. 

[Guest Lobo]

No, I get that we have more days to go, but I also see some polling place numbers starting to markedly decline as the message now shifts to "And Election Day turnout will be lower, but mostly Republican."  We matched the numbers in most states yesterday, but with just 2-3 days left to go until Election Day, I think the uptick will be significant, but not game-changing.  If this pace were to sustain or even pick up a bit as people around Texas think "Oh shit, there's only two more days to early vote---we gotta get out there!"...then I could see our state being in play even with a mini-surge of olds on Election Day.  But us, and a few key swing states, hit an important benchmark at some point late Monday to mid Tuesday.  And that's great, but we're just tacking on a couple of extra days now with lower turnout numbers...and then the wild card is this mini-GOP bumrush coming on Tuesday.  

I dunno, I'm just being extremely cautious about this election again.  I think most of us kinda have roller coaster fatigue at this point.   We get really high up and excited and then something happens and we go into a lull.  I'm that valley again of pessimism about this election.