2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[DanTheHorn 5061]

19 minutes ago, Disco Strangler said:

Beto has been putting in the work.  His Powered by People made 400,000 calls yesterday.  He will match that feat again today.  The guy has worked himself into a frenzy to put Biden in office and turn Texas blue, so I don't blame the guy who is so single-mindedly focused on the roadway in Texas to not see the view from 30,000 feet.  

True but kids that like Beto listen to his words and by loosing sight of the 30K view these kids really believe Biden is ignoring them even though they are working hard. It bothers me that Beto is such a panderer and has apologized for his long held beliefs. So, I see his bitching about Biden not coming to Texas as his pandering extinct more than something he really wants to see happen since he knows what is at stake nationally.

Edited October 29, 2020 by DanTheHorn

[Pancho 46054]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

how would he have fucked himself? he may be the most well-known politician in this state, and most of those people like him

Gun comments in primary debate

[Dahobbs 18185]

1 minute ago, DanTheHorn said:

True but kids that like Beto listen to his words and by loosing sight of the 30K view these kids really believe Biden is ignoring them even though they are working hard. It bothers me that Beto is such a panderer and has apologized for his long held beliefs. So, I see his bitching about Biden not coming to Texas as his pandering extinct more than something he really wants to see happen since he knows what is at stake nationally.

This take is dumb and you should feel dumb for having it. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Gun comments in primary debate

meh, that issue has a shelf life, imho. only old people and the highly regarded got wound up about that. I have plenty of liberal friends with arsenals who have said they would gladly up their ar-style weapons if it meant no more mass shootings

Edited October 29, 2020 by Longhorn_Fan68

[SydneyCarton 49325]

3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

how would he have fucked himself? he may be the most well-known politician in this state, and most of those people like him

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Gun comments in primary debate

Eh- I think he’s probably still ok. Not in 2022 but maybe in 2026. If he really wants to be president he should take a position in the cabinet with Biden and put in 3 years, and come run for governor in 2026. That could be springboard for a serious as opposed to quixotic run in 2032. 
 

[SydneyCarton 49325]

2 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

meh, that issue has a shelf life, imho. only old people and the highly regarded got wound up about that. I have plenty of liberal friends with arsenals who have said they would gladly up their ar-style weapons if it meant no more mass shootings

Oh, you have plenty of liberal friends who think this way? Well, shit. All of the conservatives and independents and idiots must be cool with it as well. Shit. 

[DanTheHorn 5061]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

This take is dumb and you should feel dumb for having it. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Oh, you have plenty of liberal friends who think this way? Well, shit. All of the conservatives and independents and idiots must be cool with it as well. Shit. 

don't put words in my mouth. I didn't say that. I said of the people I know who have arsenals also happen to be liberal and also happen to not have a problem with surrendering their assault rifles.

I think this issue has a shelf life because a) with a Dem congress and Prez (jeebus willing) it's likely that we go back to the way it was before 2004, b) my theory is fewer and fewer young people will want to have these types of weapons over time. I can guarantee you climate change, free college, decriminalized weed, healthcare, and living wages are WAY more important topics to young Texans than "muh guhnsssss'

[SydneyCarton 49325]

Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

don't put words in my mouth. I didn't say that. I said of the people I know who have arsenals also happen to be liberal and also happen to not have a problem with surrendering their assault rifles.

I think this issue has a shelf life because a) with a Dem congress and Prez (jeebus willing) it's likely that we go back to the way it was before 2004, b) my theory is fewer and fewer young people will want to have these types of weapons over time. I can guarantee you climate change, free college, decriminalized weed, healthcare, and living wages are WAY more important topics to young Texans than "muh guhnsssss'

I mean...what I said is literally the same thing you said, but with sarcasm. But lets try this a different way. You don't believe Beto's comments are a problem, and the reason you've supplied as anecdotal evidence is that your LIBERAL friends who have arsenals would happily give them up. I simply pointed out that non-liberal people probably don't share that view. What words have I put in your mouth? 

You're probably right that these comments have a shelf life. But I don't happen to believe that shelf life is 2022, 2024, 2028...maybe get back to me in a decade when enough olds are dead and Texas is firmly blue. Until then, it's a very polarizing comment that turns off a vast chunk of Texas independents as well as a non starter. IMO

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

Agreed. Moving on

[Pato del Muerto 53331]

36 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

He's certainly earned a position in the administration if that's what he wants to do, IMO. But maybe he wants to stay in Texas. 

Ambassador to Ireland imo

[Neonmoon 38130]

Beto is playing long game. Shootings aren’t going to stop. 10 more years of mass shootings. Let’s pretend it becomes general consensus that AR-15s should be restricted. He easily says ‘I said that 10 years ago when it wasn’t politically popular’

 

[Valmy77 13567]

43 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Boy I wish Beto hadn't said that and I wish he had never run for President. Mostly because everbody knows we are not going to go around seizing AR-15s. I am not even clear that is Constitutional and even if it is it is practically almost impossible. 

I wish he was running against Cornyn this year or running in 23rd District.

Ah well. I guess he will spend the rest of his career as some political operative instead of holding office.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Valmy77

[Texas73 422]

45 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Gun comments in primary debate

Beto fucks up one time and his political career is over yet Trump fucks up daily. So much bullshit.

[Valmy77 13567]

1 minute ago, Texas73 said:

Beto fucks up one time and his political career is over yet Trump fucks up daily. So much bullshit.

Heh. You are not kidding about that.

I don't think his career is over but it doesn't look like he is seeking to revive it someplace.

[BradInATX 9208]

I mean he's only 48 and I agree with LHF68 in that it's not a permanent wound. Demographics and viewpoints will change. In 8 years he'll be 56 years old which is basically a kid in politics. He's got plenty of run left.

[DanTheHorn 5061]

2 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Beto fucks up one time and his political career is over yet Trump fucks up daily. So much bullshit.

The difference is Trump's fuck-ups are adored by cult followers which treat them like 3 dimensional chess. Have you seen the women that is walking in the cold after a bus does not pick her up and thanks Trump for the lesson he is teaching her.

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Dallas Morning news did some polling on guns in late January, and it’s not as gun crazy as you might think

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/02/03/texans-overwhelmingly-want-gun-background-checks-are-open-to-red-flag-laws-dmn-ut-tyler-poll-finds/?outputType=amp

[Hank Scorpio 17924]

It’s hilarious that the biggest knock against a politician is that he’s anti any-fucking-idiot-can-own-a-machine-gun. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

The difference is Trump's fuck-ups are adored by cult followers which treat them like 3 dimensional chess. Have you seen the women that is walking in the cold after a bus does not pick her up and thanks Trump for the lesson he is teaching her.

Wait, you’re using the parody video of a Trump supporter made by a comedian as evidence?

Yeah - you don’t know shit about fuck.

[HenryJames 67116]

You have a better way of stopping the King of England from quartering redcoats in your home?

[Rimbo 26853]

4 hours ago, The Dog said:

Yup. Once you vote the phone calls stop.

Not so lucky for me here on the left coast. I voted weeks ago and the texts and calls and mailings continue unabated.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Rimbo

[Planet Houston 4949]

 

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

[Tuco 5093]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Texas has too many counties to easily analyze. I categorized them based on a Texas Dept of Health definition (see map.)  I calculated enthusiasm as difference between the 2016 Turnout percentage and 2020 early vote turnout, from Huck's data.  I added the region's Trump's 2016 win % as reference.

This is excellent work.  

[DanTheHorn 5061]

43 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Wait, you’re using the parody video of a Trump supporter made by a comedian as evidence?

Yeah - you don’t know shit about fuck.

Did not know thanks for clearing that up. I told my daughter that it almost seemed like a freaking skit but with these dumb ass Trumpkins one can't tell the difference so it was not beyond the realm of possibility that it was true so that is why I used it as evidence. Should have gone with my first instinct.

Edited October 29, 2020 by DanTheHorn

[LCHorn 2749]

45 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Not so lucky for me here on the left coast. I voted weeks ago and the texts and calls and mailings continue unabated.

I had some guy from the Mark Kelly campaign (I'm in Austin) text me that their internals showed McSally +3 and asking for money.  I responded with "Leave me alone, I'm not donating if you're going to employ a polling firm that incompetent."

[atomheartbevo 90546]

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s crazy that a state as big as Texas doesn’t have 4 weeks of early voting.

I had a relative from Oklahoma asking last week why Texas has such a large early voting period.

I pointed out that Harris County has more people than the entire state of Oklahoma, and that we can't have 8-9 million people all showing up in a very short period during the middle of a pandemic.  That seemed to put a damper on her attitude.

[atomheartbevo 90546]

5 hours ago, The Dog said:

Yup. Once you vote the phone calls stop.

This tells you how much they are tracking voters.  They can't tell who you voted for, but they can tell who is actually voting, who is new, etc.

[atomheartbevo 90546]

4 hours ago, DanTheHorn said:

So far every time I see that guy he is everywhere but El Paso. He needs to go spend some time there and get out the vote since they are lagging so far behind (38.64%). May be to late at this point with the covid spike but like Biden says Common Beto!

It's a spike that has filled their ICUs and hospitals to the point where they are sending patients to other cities, and isn't slowing down.

Beto does not need to be holding rallies there.   Nobody does.

[DanTheHorn 5061]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's a spike that has filled their ICUs and hospitals to the point where they are sending patients to other cities, and isn't slowing down.

Beto does not need to be holding rallies there.   Nobody does.

I need to wait until the next page. My last few post have all been fails. Thanks for pointing this out.

[berlinerbaer 692]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Dallas Morning news did some polling on guns in late January, and it’s not as gun crazy as you might think

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/02/03/texans-overwhelmingly-want-gun-background-checks-are-open-to-red-flag-laws-dmn-ut-tyler-poll-finds/?outputType=amp

Low hanging fruit if Biden is elected, in this order:

1. Covid stimulus

2. HR-1 / new voting rights act

3. Universal background checks + red flag law

Just those three and a bunch of executive orders to shore up the existing ACA, take the kids out of cages, effectively staff all agencies and departments, and reimpose Obama-level oversight and regulations and the Dems will expand their share of the House and Senate in 2022.

Having said that, watch them all fuck around for 18 months with a new health care bill, or the Green New Deal, and I say that as someone who wants those things.

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Yep, Biden administration needs to move at ludicrous speed. 

[Satchel 6982]

30 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Low hanging fruit if Biden is elected, in this order:

1. Covid stimulus

2. HR-1 / new voting rights act

3. Universal background checks + red flag law

Just those three and a bunch of executive orders to shore up the existing ACA, take the kids out of cages, effectively staff all agencies and departments, and reimpose Obama-level oversight and regulations and the Dems will expand their share of the House and Senate in 2022.

Having said that, watch them all fuck around for 18 months with a new health care bill, or the Green New Deal, and I say that as someone who wants those things.

 

 

I saw a report on Vox which said Biden’s team is very quietly being assembled and the plan in to hit the ground running. It mentioned that steps were already being taken to immediately undo Trump’s most onerous EOs. It’s enough to pop the cork on your corrective shoes!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Texas has too many counties to easily analyze. I categorized them based on a Texas Dept of Health definition (see map.)  I calculated enthusiasm as difference between the 2016 Turnout percentage and 2020 early vote turnout, from Huck's data.  I added the region's Trump's 2016 win % as reference.

I wanted to add some color to my post. For Biden, it's a great story in that the regions that appear to have enthusiasm to early vote were less supportive of Trump in 2016 than the state average. The risk for Biden is that even though many of the smaller Texas regions are small, the Trump support runs high. They also may show up in big numbers on Tuesday, relatively speaking.

Not to rehash 2018 too much but here is the 2020 early vote enthusiasm again, along with how Trump and Cruz did. It's both surprising and not that region 11 (Corpus & Valley) is the only region that supported Cruz more than Trump. The Valley did not dig Beto. Even East Texas shifted some to Beto from Trump.

 

 

[Huckleberry 34407]

52 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Low hanging fruit if Biden is elected, in this order:

1. Covid stimulus

2. HR-1 / new voting rights act

3. Universal background checks + red flag law

Just those three and a bunch of executive orders to shore up the existing ACA, take the kids out of cages, effectively staff all agencies and departments, and reimpose Obama-level oversight and regulations and the Dems will expand their share of the House and Senate in 2022.

Having said that, watch them all fuck around for 18 months with a new health care bill, or the Green New Deal, and I say that as someone who wants those things.

 

 

Expand the House

[Biff Tannen 46061]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yep, Biden administration needs to move at ludicrous speed. 

Plaid, IMO.

[immamac 44199]

5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Expand the House

If there is a majority in one party in the senate keep the filibuster at 61 vote cloture for ALL activity. If there is no one party majority (3 or more parties) set the filibuster to 50 vote cloture. 

Time to lock this mother fucker down till a 3rd party can safely split off from bot the dem or GOP 

I'd like to see a true progressive party, leaving Dems as the moderate liberals or a true conservative party leaving the GOP as the radical regards. 

[berlinerbaer 692]

Shit, I'm talking short-term low hanging fruit and y'all are freewheeling your wish lists.

I held back from my 2nd amendment repeal.

[South Austin 53154]

Prima Nocta.

[HOOKEM4 5151]

35 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Shit, I'm talking short-term low hanging fruit and y'all are freewheeling your wish lists.

I held back from my 2nd amendment repeal.

If you use this 2 year period of possible majority to go after guns, you will not see the majority for another 12 years or so. Suicide imo.

[Neonmoon 38130]

31 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Prima Nocta.

[SquishMitten 10493]

Not so lucky for me here on the left coast. I voted weeks ago and the texts and calls and mailings continue unabated.

There’s only so many groups with phone banks. Respond to them that you voted, and that they can take you off their list to focus on the slackers

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

it's not there yet (<500 to go), but looks like Travis County might see another uptick today. So far each day this week has seen more voters than the last.

[Neonmoon 38130]

15 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

it's not there yet (<500 to go), but looks like Travis County might see another uptick today. So far each day this week has seen more voters than the last.

 

[SydneyCarton 49325]

Heard on NPR that Bun B and The Suffers are holding a free concert at NRG tonight or tomm for voters and to encourage folks to come out. H Town. 

[Dahobbs 18185]

Let's see if Harris can actually get some volume tonight and actually pass 2016 today. 

[atomheartbevo 90546]

 

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Prima Nocta.

[atomheartbevo 90546]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I'd like to see a true progressive party, leaving Dems as the moderate liberals or a true conservative party leaving the GOP as the radical regards. 

As somebody who has voted for both Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates in the past, I ask that they not be allowed anywhere near a true conservative party.