2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[The Dog 44771]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--I saw that.  It's insane.  Either that poll is off or the statewide public polls are waaaaay off.

If Biden takes TX03 by 11, then he's winning Texas by 5.

Even if it's off by 10 it's a massive swing to the Democratic party.

[BradInATX 9208]

I'm not going to read into these late district polls and talk myself into believing Biden will win Texas en route to a 400+ to 100 electoral college rout.

Not gonna fuckin do it. Not in the year of 2020. 

Edited October 30, 2020 by BradInATX

[Pato del Muerto 53331]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm not going to read into these late district polls and talk myself into believing Biden will win Texas en route to a 400+ to 100 electoral college rout.

Not gonna fuckin do it. Not in the year of 2020. 

What’s more 2020 than a blue Texas?

[Tuco 5093]

46 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

One of my kids came home and was saying that youth voters in Texas are turning out; I'll have to ask him his source but it's nice to see him talking politics and voting with his friends (he was a Sanders primary voter). Bernie was working hard to keep them engaged and I think it may have helped. They've stayed tuned in and kept up with what is going on. (obviously anecdotal)

The NBC tracker indicates 18-29 year olds are 13% of the 8.5M votes.  That's the smallest chunk of any age demographic.  In 2016, that demographic was 18% of all votes.  But, I think younger voters are less likely to be concerned about voting on election day.  (The 65+ chunk is currently 27% of EV, but was only 15% of 2016 total.) So who the fuck knows. 

That age correlation, in Texas and other states, may do a lot to challenge the notion that EV will be primarily Dem and election day will be primarily Rep. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

What’s more 2020 than a blue Texas?

MorganFreemanHe'sRightYouKnow.gif

 

11 minutes ago, South Austin said:

We aren't spending as much time caring about Longhorn football.

Root for Arky to beat A&M at A&M this weekend and maybe the Ags will forget to vote. That coach is expensive.

[gmr548 16681]

Harris was plus 200k for Beto with much lower turnout.  Biden will net 350k to 400k in Harris based on turnout and estimates based on Beto's percentage. The math is simple. 

I’m not saying he won’t net. I’m saying doing so doesn’t cut a 700k vote margin in half because you’re not starting from zero. In your aggressive example he’s net an additional 150-200k votes. If we call the margin 500k from Beto to Trump’s 4.7mm, that’s still not half. The math is simple.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

1 minute ago, Tuco said:

The NBC tracker indicates 18-29 year olds are 13% of the 8.5M votes.  That's the smallest chunk of any age demographic.  In 2016, that demographic was 18% of all votes.  But, I think younger voters are less likely to be concerned about voting on election day.  (The 65+ chunk is currently 27% of EV, but was only 15% of 2016 total.) So who the fuck knows. 

That age correlation, in Texas and other states, may do a lot to challenge the notion that EV will be primarily Dem and election day will be primarily Rep. 

It may have been in the Senate thread, but one complication for youth has been the absentee ballot. On the one hand, more students may have stayed home (online classes) but the ones that didn't, did they end up remembering to take care of their ballot? I just went and asked, and one of my son's friends is voting Tuesday because he was planning to vote today but was called into to work a shift. That has also complicated everything--in our community, the young folks are the major demographic testing positive right now. I showed him the link for the voter check so he can look up his friends and badger any that haven't voted for the next three days if they don't go before the polls close today. Many of them already have apparently. No Trump among any of them.

[elfenix 34658]

 

[SubliminalHorn 6995]

Just signed up to do some phone banking this weekend, Monday, and Tuesday. Gotta find more votes out there. 

[Ghost of LL 15664]

34 minutes ago, Tuco said:

The NBC tracker indicates 18-29 year olds are 13% of the 8.5M votes.  That's the smallest chunk of any age demographic.  In 2016, that demographic was 18% of all votes.  But, I think younger voters are less likely to be concerned about voting on election day.  (The 65+ chunk is currently 27% of EV, but was only 15% of 2016 total.) So who the fuck knows. 

That age correlation, in Texas and other states, may do a lot to challenge the notion that EV will be primarily Dem and election day will be primarily Rep. 

That's odd, because I think that's at some variance with some of the other numbers we've seen.  I have been under the distinct impression that the youth vote is up significantly.

Of course, that may be nationwide, and Texas is an outlier for some reason.  I dunno.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

Digging the Houston love right now 
 

This is so fucking true. Early voting in NYC has been a shitshow.

[Tuco 5093]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's odd, because I think that's at some variance with some of the other numbers we've seen.  I have been under the distinct impression that the youth vote is up significantly.

Of course, that may be nationwide, and Texas is an outlier for some reason.  I dunno.

I'm sure it's up compared to EV in previous years, both in total numbers and as a percentage of EV.  But I don't think the percentage of youth vote as a total of EV in 2020 is higher than the  2016 total percentages.  And I think that is consistent for other states. Nebraska 18-29 is at 11% total, Wisconsin is 8%, Ohio is 10% (compared to 18% of 2016 vote), Georgia is 13% (compared to 18%).  [Not sure of that 18% is the nationwide % of 18-29 in 2016, or it's just consistent between states.]

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

then why the hell are we excited about the youth vote?

[Tuco 5093]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

then why the hell are we excited about the youth vote?

Because compared to previous early voting, their turnout is high:

 

(Credit to someone who pm'd me that.) 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Those two things are at odds.

 

You cannot have both

youth vote up 610%

and

Youth vote a smaller portion of the total EV

without

all non-youth vote going up by more than 610%.  And no one is claiming that.  We aren't sextupling early voting.

[Pato del Muerto 53331]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Those two things are at odds.

 

You cannot have both

youth vote up 610%

and

Youth vote a smaller portion of the total EV

without

all non-youth vote going up by more than 610%.  And no one is claiming that.  We aren't sextupling early voting.

The nbc tracker link that shows the 13% of total votes also says it’s up 87% from 2016, which I guess is believable if the early voting is up around 90% from 2016. 

Also if you click on party registration it shows R leading 53/37. 
 

so how useful is it?
 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Ted Lange 16353]

some interesting numbers.  

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

I’m not saying he won’t net. I’m saying doing so doesn’t cut a 700k vote margin in half because you’re not starting from zero. In your aggressive example he’s net an additional 150-200k votes. If we call the margin 500k from Beto to Trump’s 4.7mm, that’s still not half. The math is simple.

Beto lost by 214k, not 500k. Beto's margin to a conservative estimate of Biden's are

Harris 200k to 387k, Dallas 240k to 371k, Travis, 240k to 367k, Bexar 109k to 215k, El Paso 100k to 155k, Hidalgo 58k to 107, Fort Bend 31k to 69k.

Biden wins Texas by over 3%.

 

 

 

[StassneyHorn 6755]

If there’s more than 11 million votes in Texas I just can’t  see Trump winning here. 

[Ghost of LL 15664]

Just now, StassneyHorn said:

If there’s more than 11 million votes in Texas I just can’t  see Trump winning here. 

At 11M votes, one really does start to wonder.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5164]

So for counties that use a machine, they know how many ballots are cast even before any counting is done.  Do they announce that?  Will Harris come out at closing time of the polls, for instance and say "so far we've counting x for Biden and y for Trump out of a total of z ballots, so we have z-(x+y) ballots left to count?"

Being able to know that information for the counties while the counties are still counting could make for some interesting speculation.

[Dahobbs 18185]

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

I'm sure it's up compared to EV in previous years, both in total numbers and as a percentage of EV.  But I don't think the percentage of youth vote as a total of EV in 2020 is higher than the  2016 total percentages.  And I think that is consistent for other states. Nebraska 18-29 is at 11% total, Wisconsin is 8%, Ohio is 10% (compared to 18% of 2016 vote), Georgia is 13% (compared to 18%).  [Not sure of that 18% is the nationwide % of 18-29 in 2016, or it's just consistent between states.]

Yeah, that makes zero sense. EV is up by a bit, but isn't up several times the normal amount. 

54 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Those two things are at odds.

 

You cannot have both

youth vote up 610%

and

Youth vote a smaller portion of the total EV

without

all non-youth vote going up by more than 610%.  And no one is claiming that.  We aren't sextupling early voting.

This. Something is off with those numbers. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

1 minute ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

So for counties that use a machine, they know how many ballots are cast even before any counting is done.  Do they announce that?  Will Harris come out at closing time of the polls, for instance and say "so far we've counting x for Biden and y for Trump out of a total of z ballots, so we have z-(x+y) ballots left to count?"

Being able to know that information for the counties while the counties are still counting could make for some interesting speculation.

With voting machines, I don't think it's really about counting in-person votes. The vote count is known immediately. 

For mail-in ballots, I don't think they announce the total ballots to be counted, other than numbers reported to the state prior to Election Day.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Here is some youth vote data I found. Somewhat current maybe? It cut off the source-from Tufts.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

Because compared to previous early voting, their turnout is high:

 

(Credit to someone who pm'd me that.) 

the follow up took from me 3p to midnight:

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

that's Biden +170k by my quick math

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Their first chart in the article is through the 23rd, the one I posted is from where they got the first numbers and through the 27th if I did that right.

[immamac 44199]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--I saw that.  It's insane.  Either that poll is off or the statewide public polls are waaaaay off.

If Biden takes TX03 by 11, then he's winning Texas by 5.

You are starting to understand how fucked trump is. Noon Tuesday. 

[Tuco 5093]

Those two things are at odds.
 
You cannot have both
youth vote up 610%
and
Youth vote a smaller portion of the total EV
without
all non-youth vote going up by more than 610%.  And no one is claiming that.  We aren't sextupling early voting.

If the youth vote was 2% of EV in 2016 and it was up 600%, then it would be roughly 13% without any increase by anyone else. And their EV % would still be less than their % in the total vote on Election Day.

It’s possible NBC’s numbers are bad, but there is nothing wrong with the math. The Tufts numbers could imply an issue with what youth % of total is.

[Helobious 9755]

1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

some interesting numbers.  

Honest question... how can someone see something like this & think Biden is going to win the state? 

[Dahobbs 18185]

16 minutes ago, Tuco said:

If the youth vote was 2% of EV in 2016 and it was up 600%, then it would be roughly 13% without any increase by anyone else. And their EV % would still be less than their % in the total vote on Election Day.

It’s possible NBC’s numbers are bad, but there is nothing wrong with the math. The Tufts numbers could imply an issue with what youth % of total is.

I see the issue. I read EV as applying to both times you used the word "total." Although, your new post suggests that youths made up a huge percentage of the election day vote in 2016. Like, almost half of it based on the numbers we have (1.2 million total youth votes in 2016 vs 100k EV votes compared to a total of 2.2 million election day votes). That doesn't seem possible.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Dahobbs 18185]

4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Honest question... how can someone see something like this & think Biden is going to win the state? 

Do you think Trump is going to win Harris or Bexar Counties? Do you think he is going to win Houston and San Antonio? Because, according to those numbers and your reasoning, we should expect that. But, we know with certainty he will lose both Houston and San Antonio. And not be a little bit, but by very large margins. So, maybe your analysis is flawed. Or maybe those fundraising numbers are. 

[Ted Lange 16353]

4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Honest question... how can someone see something like this & think Biden is going to win the state? 

TBH, I read it wrong when I posted it.   But it is interesting that trump out raised Biden in Houston and Trump will still get crushed in Houston.  But I’m still Trump 2+ in Texas when all is said and done. 

[Pato del Muerto 53331]

So is it 7 pm closing time?  And is it like on Tuesday where if you are in line in time you can vote?

[Hawndoh 2409]

Out raising $$$ in Houston could just be a handful of very wealthy donors vs thousands of small donors.

The mega donor still only gets 1 vote.

[Irieguy 1059]

16 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Honest question... how can someone see something like this & think Biden is going to win the state? 

Because money raised doesn’t equal votes. Glad I could help. 

[Ted Lange 16353]

9 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Out raising $$$ in Houston could just be a handful of very wealthy donors vs thousands of small donors.

The mega donor still only gets 1 vote.

That’s certainly what it is.  

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

[Ted Lange 16353]

And. If money raised, equals how can anyone think the one raising less has a chance to win.....  using that logic Trump is in trouble. 
 

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/858347477/money-tracker-how-much-trump-and-biden-have-raised-in-the-2020-election

950M vs 612M. Biden v Trump. 

[Tuco 5093]

I see the issue. I read EV as applying to both times you used the word "total." Although, your new post suggests that youths made up a huge percentage of the election day vote in 2016. Like, almost half of it based on the numbers we have (1.2 million total youth votes in 2016 vs 100k EV votes compared to a total of 2.2 million election day votes). That doesn't seem possible.

I don’t know where you are only getting 2.2m votes on Election Day in 2016.

[Ted Lange 16353]

Win or lose, I’m rooting for Texas to be close enough that the Texas Dems will actually be able to convince some really great candidates to step up and run for statewide elections going forward.  For too long it’s been such an uphill battle that nobody with real aspirations is gonna run.  If voters can show that a state race is actually attainable for a D, the pool of candidates goes WAY up.   

[Dahobbs 18185]

9 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I don’t know where you are only getting 2.2m votes on Election Day in 2016.

I can't find the exact statistic, but I'm pretty sure I'm close. 

The total vote was 8.9. Early vote in the largest 15 counties was 4.5 million. I'm pretty confident the other counties had at least 2 million in early voting combined. 

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

[Irieguy 1059]

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Let's assume today is a heavy turnout because people realize they want to vote but they don't want to go on Tuesday: Let's say 4% for today. That takes us to approx 9.7m.  To get to 11m, we need Tuesday to have a 8% turnout and 12m requires 13.5%.  What are previous election days' turnout?

My vote total guess is 11.5m.

So I guess @Helobious gut was wrong about turnout. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[TexasEd 8248]

I got two post millennials (Gen Z) to the polls today to cast their first votes in presidential general election. 

 

Edited October 31, 2020 by TexasEd

[TexasEd 8248]

4 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's odd, because I think that's at some variance with some of the other numbers we've seen.  I have been under the distinct impression that the youth vote is up significantly.

Of course, that may be nationwide, and Texas is an outlier for some reason.  I dunno.

Depends on how you measure, as a % of their cohort or a % of the general population or in total numbers.

They could be down as a % of general population but still be up in total numbers and % of their cohort if other cohorts are out in higher numbers.

[SquishMitten 10493]

What’s more 2020 than a blue Texas?

That would be some delicious retribution for the shit bags that have brought us into this position

[SquishMitten 10493]

Got three Ds out to vote today!

[The Dog 44771]

3 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

some interesting numbers.  

Ok class, here is the Houston map by AMOUNT DONATED:

And the (almost) same map by NUMBER OF DONATIONS:

[YoungCounty 165]

I’m in an 8 team fantasy football league with my two sons and their friends. Other than me obviously, they are all 19-24 years old. 
 

I’ve gotten 5 of them to vote so far. None have ever voted before. They all voted Biden. I’m still working on the the other two. 
 

We may be the only blue votes in this dark red county, but I’m trying to do my part. 
 

By the way, I’ve never voted a Democrat for Pres. Always Libertarian. Can’t believe I not only voted for one, but am actively recruiting others to do the same. 

[Pasken 1310]

I got a friend who is a new citizen to vote but it caused her usual non-voter husband to also go out and vote and cancel her out. You do what you can.