2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Dahobbs 18190]

 

 

[The Dog 44771]

Here's a better example, the RGV. 

Total amount donated:

Total donations:

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

5 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's odd, because I think that's at some variance with some of the other numbers we've seen.  I have been under the distinct impression that the youth vote is up significantly.

Of course, that may be nationwide, and Texas is an outlier for some reason.  I dunno.

Yeah- that’s a really odd number that seems to be at odds with what is anecdotally being reported. 

[Dahobbs 18190]

So, for whatever reason there is a large discrepancy between what the secretary of state and travis county reports for early voting. Assuming the County's figure is accurate, Travis has exceeded 64% turnout and, depending on mail counted today, may exceed 2016's total turnout percentage of 65%. Even if it just matches 2016 for number of votes on election day (as opposed to percentage of registered voters), you're talking 77% turnout. And even more impressive, 75% turnout among all eligible voters. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

So, for whatever reason there is a large discrepancy between what the secretary of state and travis county reports for early voting. Assuming the County's figure is accurate, Travis has exceeded 64% turnout and, depending on mail counted today, may exceed 2016's total turnout percentage of 65%. Even if it just matches 2016 for number of votes on election day (as opposed to percentage of registered voters), you're talking 77% turnout. And even more impressive, 75% turnout among all eligible voters. 

I think the most amazing part is 96% RV I’m Travis county. Something like that I read earlier. That is incredible. Like I literally can’t believe it. Is it possible that they just never purge the rolls and so the numbers are wrong?  Or is Travis county in its entirety (basically) really registered to vote? 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

22 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think the most amazing part is 96% RV I’m Travis county. Something like that I read earlier. That is incredible. Like I literally can’t believe it. Is it possible that they just never purge the rolls and so the numbers are wrong?  Or is Travis county in its entirety (basically) really registered to vote? 

I’ve always suspected that’s what was going on with that number.  So many people move into and out of this county that they just aren’t current.  Probably 10% of those people moved out sometime in the last decade. 

[RayDog 682]

24 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think the most amazing part is 96% RV I’m Travis county. Something like that I read earlier. That is incredible. Like I literally can’t believe it. Is it possible that they just never purge the rolls and so the numbers are wrong?  Or is Travis county in its entirety (basically) really registered to vote? 

They purged the rolls. I was purged and they won't let me register so I can't vote. The next time I am in Austin I hope to sort it out in person.

[Pasken 1310]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I’ve always suspected that’s what was going on with that number.  So many people move into and out of this county that they just aren’t current.  Probably 10% of those people moved out sometime in the last decade. 

People move around the same metro and have to re-register constantly. Lots of shifting between travis, hays and Williamson counties.

[TexEx15 17914]

 

[Valmy77 13567]

10 minutes ago, RayDog said:

They purged the rolls. I was purged and they won't let me register so I can't vote. The next time I am in Austin I hope to sort it out in person.

Heh yeah when I moved to Williamson County they purged me pretty quick.

[Neonmoon 38130]

How many registered voters in Harris in 2020?

[Pasken 1310]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

How many registered voters in Harris in 2020?

2,370,540 in July.

[Neonmoon 38130]

10 minutes ago, Pasken said:

2,370,540 in July.

Has to be larger than that. If not, 60% turnout already, highest since 1990

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

2.48m registered going into the election.  1.4m voted. Not the high % as some other counties but a huge number. Greater than the population of 11 states.

tall order but if 350k show up on Tuesday, like in ‘16, Harris county is up to 72%.

Edited October 31, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Chuckie Finster 22978]

[RayDog 682]

48% for Hidalgo is great for them. In total they had 42% in 2018, 51% in 2016 and 46% in 2012.

[Huckleberry 34407]

Nightly preview/estimate:

[yoladu 4187]

FINAL EARLY VOTING TOTAL from Travis County

total votes : 553,290

% of registered voters who have voted : 64.70%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct30.pdf

That's all folks, I was hoping we could get to 65%. So close!!

Edited October 31, 2020 by yoladu

[Huckleberry 34407]

Obviously there are some larger counties already near 70% turnout. The best turnout in 2018 was 71.2% and that was King County with all of 184 registered voters. The best 2018 total turnout in counties with over 50,000 registered voters was Williamson at 62.72% of possible voters.

In 2016 those numbers were 78.83% (Borden County - 463 registered voters) and 69.56% (Rockwall County).

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[Huckleberry 34407]

If I had to place an even odds bet I'd say that yes, we will see a Texas county with 80%+ total turnout.

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Have more confidence in Texas going blue than PA turning red.

Will a little luck it could be a blowout.

[Tuco 5093]

4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I can't find the exact statistic, but I'm pretty sure I'm close. 

The total vote was 8.9. Early vote in the largest 15 counties was 4.5 million. I'm pretty confident the other counties had at least 2 million in early voting combined. 

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Ok.  I think maybe election day is heavy with the utes, but there does seem to be a disconnect on the 2020 final youth percentage.  (Final is EV+election day).

NBC is saying 18% of the final 8.92M, which is 1.6M votes., in 2016 

Tuffts is saying 1.22M youth, or 13.7% of the 8.92M, in 2016

I am wondering if NBC was including registered voters in their "all voter" demographic.  

Still, if ~106k voted early in 2016 (per the Mark Elliot tweet) of the 1.22M who would eventually vote, election day had a shitton of youth voting on election day.  (Ok, the Elliot tweet did not include the Friday before election day in 2016.) 

So, to me the bad news is that the youth have not exceeded their 2016 total votes yet. Their EV rates have not exceeded their final rate of 2016.  The good news is they frequently wait until election day, and logic tells me that they are less likely to be concerned about COVID issues with voting then.  Considering the party affiliation differential currently favoring the Republicans, that's a good thing. 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Denton, tarrant, and Collin counties are my big concern.

i live in tarrant and I guess I’m not sure it will even go blue. We do have a lot of “ I have mine, screw you” types here.

if we can get it down to where trump doesn’t gain hardly any votes from the 3 counties that would help a lot. 
 

Do you guys think Biden will win or possibly get very close to breaking even in these counties?

[Huckleberry 34407]

I think he can hope for a -1% in Collin, -3% in Denton, and needs to win Tarrant by about 3-5%. I think all are doable.

O'Rourke won Tarrant.

Edited October 31, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Dahobbs 18190]

5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Denton, tarrant, and Collin counties are my big concern.

i live in tarrant and I guess I’m not sure it will even go blue. We do have a lot of “ I have mine, screw you” types here.

if we can get it down to where trump doesn’t gain hardly any votes from the 3 counties that would help a lot. 
 

Do you guys think Biden will win or possibly get very close to breaking even in these counties?

Tarrant will be blue, it is mainly a question of how much bluer than 2018. 

[Ted Lange 16353]

1 hour ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Have more confidence in Texas going blue than PA turning red.

Will a little luck it could be a blowout.

Agree 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Ted Lange

[Dahobbs 18190]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Obviously there are some larger counties already near 70% turnout. The best turnout in 2018 was 71.2% and that was King County with all of 184 registered voters. The best 2018 total turnout in counties with over 50,000 registered voters was Williamson at 62.72% of possible voters.

In 2016 those numbers were 78.83% (Borden County - 463 registered voters) and 69.56% (Rockwall County).

At this point I'm feeling very confident that Harris and Dallas will at least get to 70%. They just have to match their election day votes from 2016, with no increase due to population. I also feel pretty good about Travis getting to 80%. 

[immamac 44199]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Denton, tarrant, and Collin counties are my big concern.

i live in tarrant and I guess I’m not sure it will even go blue. We do have a lot of “ I have mine, screw you” types here.

if we can get it down to where trump doesn’t gain hardly any votes from the 3 counties that would help a lot. 
 

Do you guys think Biden will win or possibly get very close to breaking even in these counties?

Biden. Noon. Cst. 

[atomheartbevo 90547]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

If I had to place an even odds bet I'd say that yes, we will see a Texas county with 80%+ total turnout.

Brewster County will be it.

[atomheartbevo 90547]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

DO YOU SEE THIS FOLKS, THEY ARE ALLOWING MORE THAN 100% OF VOTERS TO VOTE.  118%, CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT?  I'M NOT MAKING THIS UP, THEY TWEET ABOUT IT IN THE OPEN, THAT'S HOW LITTLE THEY CARE FOR THE RULE OF LAW, THEY DON'T EVEN HIDE IT.  THIS IS WHAT I TOLD YOU WOULD HAPPEN WITH CRAZY JOE RUNNING.

SUPREME COURT!

SECOND AMENDEMENT!

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

[Dahobbs 18190]

7 minutes ago, immamac said:

Biden. Noon. Cst. 

If it's what you say, I love it. 

[harold 81]

Collin will flip blue.  Denton will not.

[kevwun 16269]

4 hours ago, immamac said:

Biden. Noon. Cst. 

States aren't called before their polls close on election day.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

5 hours ago, Tuco said:

So, to me the bad news is that the youth have not exceeded their 2016 total votes yet. Their EV rates have not exceeded their final rate of 2016.  The good news is they frequently wait until election day, and logic tells me that they are less likely to be concerned about COVID issues with voting then.  Considering the party affiliation differential currently favoring the Republicans, that's a good thing. 

 

The turnout for this demographic may well need an asterisk (thanks COVID)? Ignoring the obstacles some already face with absentee voting/mail (for the college attendees), or suppression (Prairie View A&M anyone?), voting can be a social event too and with the pandemic, that is being restricted to a point depending upon location?  The job market (or lack thereof) is also taking up a lot of time and energy. Adding in the stresses of unemployment, illness, etc and I'm hoping that young people are motivated and energized to vote, but it may be ending up with a scattershot effect?

11 minutes ago, kevwun said:

States aren't called before their polls close on election day.

I was picturing immamac calling it similarly to the way a Reservation Specialist calls out your name to be seated in a restaurant: "Biden, your party will be seated now. Welcome to Texas."

Nothing official, but a recognition of who has possession of the table?

[Bruh Man 3160]

Seriously tho, what do you guys think Lina Hidalgo's future entails? Do you think she can eventually win state-wide? I've always thought a charismatic Hispanic would be needed for Dems to win the governorship or a Senate seat.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Denton County 2016: Trump 57, Clinton 37 

Denton County 2018: Cruz 53, Beto 45 

 

Really high turnout in Denton County so far in 2020. Is it possible UNT students are running to the polls? 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

3 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Seriously tho, what do you guys think Lina Hidalgo's future entails? Do you think she can eventually win state-wide? I've always thought a charismatic Hispanic would be needed for Dems to win the governorship or a Senate seat.

I’m a fan but I don’t know if I would call Hidalgo charismatic. I put her more into the capable leader. More of a team player than someone who can win a big office. Winning the county judge of Harris county isn’t easy but everything came together for her especially in that other Democrats stayed away thinking it was a fools errand to take on Emmett.

I would say she can stay in the current role for the foreseeable future or seek an appointment in a dem administration .

[Bruh Man 3160]

28 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’m a fan but I don’t know if I would call Hidalgo charismatic. I put her more into the capable leader. More of a team player than someone who can win a big office. Winning the county judge of Harris county isn’t easy but everything came together for her especially in that other Democrats stayed away thinking it was a fools errand to take on Emmett.

I would say she can stay in the current role for the foreseeable future or seek an appointment in a dem administration .

I was reading a politico article that Mayor Parker might primary her and that Turner doesn't exactly have warm and fuzzy feelings about Hidalgo. 

The article also praised her ability to connect with people on a one-on-one level although she doesn't necessarily have a big personality.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90547]

Bastrop County also passed 2016 voting totals

https://www.statesman.com/news/20201030/bastrop-countyrsquos-early-vote-tops-2016-total-vote-turnout

[SizzleChest 8302]

2 hours ago, kevwun said:

States aren't called before their polls close on election day.

 

[Planet Houston 4949]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Can’t shake the thought that Collin and Denton leading the way is a bad omen. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

Travis needs 130K more on Election Day to break 78% record from 1992 

that might be a tall order 

[tantric superman 4668]

I guess here is as good a place to post.  I Poll Greeted at two locations, north Dallas (Fretz) and Garland (Richland CC/Garland Campus).  I was basically just handing voters those drop pages that just list all the Dems running and asking the voter not to "stop at the top".  It was really great seeing the differences in reaction. In north Dallas, mostly white, when you'd approach someone and they saw that it was a "straight Dem" flyer, you got an immediate reaction, basically "Thanks that's awesome!" or "Ha ha, noooo Thanks!"  You knew exactly how each person was going to vote, and they wanted you to know.  A bit more than half took the flyer.

The Garland voters were primarily asian, hispanic and African American.  Everyone, other than about 10 white people out of a few hundred, took the flyer politely, and all were completely and totally inscrutable in their reactions.

I don't think that was a bad thing.  It was just fun seeing the differences -- and some of the stereotypes.

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Has to be larger than that. If not, 60% turnout already, highest since 1990

The 2020 vote for the entire state has already surpassed the total for 2016 election.

[Texaspython 231]

8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Denton, tarrant, and Collin counties are my big concern.

i live in tarrant and I guess I’m not sure it will even go blue. We do have a lot of “ I have mine, screw you” types here.

if we can get it down to where trump doesn’t gain hardly any votes from the 3 counties that would help a lot. 
 

Do you guys think Biden will win or possibly get very close to breaking even in these counties?

I’m hearing 50/50 so far in Tarrant, dem/repub votes. It’s gonna be close.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Can’t shake the thought that Collin and Denton leading the way is a bad omen. 

Yep. Polls can show that Dems are more enthusiastic but that can also mean that republicans are dragging their feet as they walk into the voting booth, but that still means they’re voting.

we’re all trying to analyze the #s but we really don’t know what we’re talking about. No one knows how to measure the % of 2016 trump voters who have flipped, how the new registered are voting, and how the infrequent voters are voting.

the good news is that we will start to see the truth in less than 100 hours. Time for speculation to get slapped in the face.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

[Dahobbs 18190]

31 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Can’t shake the thought that Collin and Denton leading the way is a bad omen. 

Those counties have a completely different electorate from 2016 and even 2018. Denton has 100k additional registrations since 2016 and 50k additional since 2018. Collin is similar. The shift leftward will not be as large as it was in 2018, but even half that shift would result in Biden running away with Texas. 

21 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

I’m hearing 50/50 so far in Tarrant, dem/repub votes. It’s gonna be close.

It isn't going to be that close. Biden by 3%+. 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Dahobbs