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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20708

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14 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Can’t shake the thought that Collin and Denton leading the way is a bad omen. 

I can't pretend to know much about demographics of either county, but the optimist in me thinks "hey, Texas is finally in play and my vote matters" makes more sense than "I've loved Trump as POTUS and can't wait to vote for him."

Higher turnout HAS to be good for Dems, right? 

 

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Bruh Man
Bruh Man

The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

Aqua Buddha
Aqua Buddha

Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I can't pretend to know much about demographics of either county, but the optimist in me thinks "hey, Texas is finally in play and my vote matters" makes more sense than "I've loved Trump as POTUS and can't wait to vote for him."

Higher turnout HAS to be good for Dems, right? 

 

That has been my default assumption up until now, but the whole mentality of voting-as-partying that has taken hold has me thinking otherwise.  That’s where the boat parades, trucks with flags, and what not seems to be a benefit to R in my gut. 

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!
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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20708

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2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

That has been my default assumption up until now, but the whole mentality of voting-as-partying that has taken hold has me thinking otherwise.  That’s where the boat parades, trucks with flags, and what not seems to be a benefit to R in my gut. 

That's fair. I think a lot of that peacocking for Trump will be overrated when it comes to actual votes. We'll find out soon enough. 

 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

That's fair. I think a lot of that peacocking for Trump will be overrated when it comes to actual votes. We'll find out soon enough. 

 

I think the lack of competitive races at the top of the ballot has suppressed the vote on both sides, and that’s why turnout in Texas is always so low. Hoping the voter enthusiasm number relates favorably to the new votes. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

Posted
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1 minute ago, Caddox said:

Trump will win easily. 

He will win the small counties easily. It isn't going to be enough for him. A small shift leftward from 2018 (couple points) in the top 15 counties would lead to a Biden win. I don't think the shift will be all that small. 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

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36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

That has been my default assumption up until now, but the whole mentality of voting-as-partying that has taken hold has me thinking otherwise.  That’s where the boat parades, trucks with flags, and what not seems to be a benefit to R in my gut. 

God I hope that cringey shit doesn't prove to work. I don't want to paint shit with damn politicians faces and walk around like some jackass.

Next we will all have to wear overalls and paint 'Saw em Off' on our ass.

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

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2 minutes ago, Caddox said:

If Trump doesnt win by 5% I'll never post on this forum again. Will yall agree to the same?

How the fuck would I even know if you kept your pledge or not, dude I have never seen before and would never remember?

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

Posted
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On 10/20/2020 at 9:03 PM, Helobious said:

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 

Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

 

The laughable 1 million is guaranteed at this point. Click bait dumbassery happens if Texas has a typical election day. 

Maybe Biden wins by +5. - James Brown.

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Irwin F Fletcher

Irwin F Fletcher 3550

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On 10/20/2020 at 8:15 PM, Irwin F Fletcher said:
On 10/20/2020 at 7:21 PM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:
I'm no math genius, but a 133% increase over last cycle is a METRIC FUCKTON of new voters. I can't imagine anywhere near half of them are voting for dotard

If we add 3M voters this cycle and push Biden to a win I'm buying beer at Great Heights for any Surly poster who is parched from the last four years.

I still can't believe it possible, but if we are exceeding the 2016 total by 3M votes, I'm buying some beer to celebrate.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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Neighbors cleaning out garage today while I was cleaning garden; they asked me if I early voted. "Yes, did y'all?"

"Yes, we never early voted before, it's great!" They're ridin' with Biden. I almost fell over. They are Ag and they voted for Biden.

Tried to keep it cool, but did talk about how great the turn out is and hope it continues for the future....

This is a not bad sign. May not be enough, but it was a nice surprise.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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I am a pessimist by nature so I will be skeptical until everything is finalized.  But by far the most concrete piece of evidence we have to go on is early voter turnout.  Trump won in 2016 by a combo of him maximizing the turnout of his base and his opponent being overconfident and not maximizing the turnout that favored her.  Any increased turnout will heavily favor Biden.  It is really hard to see that and not expect a Biden landslide.

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Satchel

Satchel 6908

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5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am a pessimist by nature so I will be skeptical until everything is finalized.  But by far the most concrete piece of evidence we have to go on is early voter turnout.  Trump won in 2016 by a combo of him maximizing the turnout of his base and his opponent being overconfident and not maximizing the turnout that favored her.  Any increased turnout will heavily favor Biden.  It is really hard to see that and not expect a Biden landslide.

The Comey surprise didn’t hurt Trump at all. In fact, I think it was determinative in his winning.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32703

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Posted (edited)

image.png.ab613f9def97ed5bed0cffae4d93c0d6.png

image.thumb.png.f69b0a0be9505972370ca5e9b3fa1dec.png

Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,909,491 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,724,191 (48.7%)
Third Party - 76,232 (0.8%)

9,709,915 early votes according to current data on the Texas SOS website. Some more will come trickling in from late-reporting counties.

 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Satchel said:

The Comey surprise didn’t hurt Trump at all. In fact, I think it was determinative in his winning.

That had a hand in it for sure, but I think just as important was all the premature celebrating that I remember for the week or two prior to the election. I think that gave many people a sense that they could not vote (for a candidate they didn’t really like) and she’d still win. 
 

lesson learned, for a few elections at least. Well, one for sure. 

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elfenix

elfenix 34171

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,909,491 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,724,191 (48.7%)
Third Party - 76,232 (0.8%)

9,709,915 early votes according to current data on the Texas SOS website. Some more will come trickling in from late-reporting counties.

 

nearly 1.1 registered voters between el paso, hidalgo, and cameron, and they're trailing everyone else by about 150,000 votes.  feels like that could be trump's margin. 

 

 

(and LOL at the guy that doesn't post here trying to make a bet about not posting here)

Edited by elfenix
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

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So, let's assume for a second the polling was right and Biden supporters were more likely to vote early. I think the polling I saw said 70% early for those planning to vote Biden and 70% election day for those planning to vote Trump. But, let's say the real number is 60% for both. That would mean that right now Trump would have to net 2 million votes on election day to win. Given that election day has seemed to be capped at 2 to 2.5 million votes, that would require an overwhelming election day victory for Trump. 

Just something to think about. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32703

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As you can see from the line chart above, 2020 early voting for the first week very closely mimicked the 2016 pattern. So I put together this chart showing what the total 2020 early voting turnout would have looked like if it matched the full pattern of 2016 but was only the normal 12 day period. This gives a better look at the relative scale of early voting turnout between years. Obviously the major caveat is that we're all waiting to find out the effect on Election Day turnout.

image.png.bb7b0bc367efcb6486cb69e78f9e0ee0.png

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

As you can see from the line chart above, 2020 early voting for the first week very closely mimicked the 2016 pattern. So I put together this chart showing what the total 2020 early voting turnout would have looked like if it matched the full pattern of 2016 but was only the normal 12 day period. This gives a better look at the relative scale of early voting turnout between years. Obviously the major caveat is that we're all waiting to find out the effect on Election Day turnout.

image.png.bb7b0bc367efcb6486cb69e78f9e0ee0.png

Did you just put the second and third week together or increase every day proportionately? 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

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Rounding to 10 million EV, if those are 51/48 Biden that’s a lead of 300,000. (1% for other) 5.1 million to 4.8 million  

at 1.5 million votes on Tuesday, trump would have to win 60/40 to make up that deficit. (No other to make the math line up perfectly) 900,000 to 600,000.  
 

I guess the question is the accuracy or plausibility of those two things.

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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