Jump to content

2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21598

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Can’t shake the thought that Collin and Denton leading the way is a bad omen. 

I can't pretend to know much about demographics of either county, but the optimist in me thinks "hey, Texas is finally in play and my vote matters" makes more sense than "I've loved Trump as POTUS and can't wait to vote for him."

Higher turnout HAS to be good for Dems, right? 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Bruh Man
Bruh Man

The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

Aqua Buddha
Aqua Buddha

Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

Posted Images

BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I can't pretend to know much about demographics of either county, but the optimist in me thinks "hey, Texas is finally in play and my vote matters" makes more sense than "I've loved Trump as POTUS and can't wait to vote for him."

Higher turnout HAS to be good for Dems, right? 

 

That has been my default assumption up until now, but the whole mentality of voting-as-partying that has taken hold has me thinking otherwise.  That’s where the boat parades, trucks with flags, and what not seems to be a benefit to R in my gut. 

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21598

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

That has been my default assumption up until now, but the whole mentality of voting-as-partying that has taken hold has me thinking otherwise.  That’s where the boat parades, trucks with flags, and what not seems to be a benefit to R in my gut. 

That's fair. I think a lot of that peacocking for Trump will be overrated when it comes to actual votes. We'll find out soon enough. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53331

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

That's fair. I think a lot of that peacocking for Trump will be overrated when it comes to actual votes. We'll find out soon enough. 

 

I think the lack of competitive races at the top of the ballot has suppressed the vote on both sides, and that’s why turnout in Texas is always so low. Hoping the voter enthusiasm number relates favorably to the new votes. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18185

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Caddox said:

Trump will win easily. 

He will win the small counties easily. It isn't going to be enough for him. A small shift leftward from 2018 (couple points) in the top 15 counties would lead to a Biden win. I don't think the shift will be all that small. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Valmy77

Valmy77 13567

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

That has been my default assumption up until now, but the whole mentality of voting-as-partying that has taken hold has me thinking otherwise.  That’s where the boat parades, trucks with flags, and what not seems to be a benefit to R in my gut. 

God I hope that cringey shit doesn't prove to work. I don't want to paint shit with damn politicians faces and walk around like some jackass.

Next we will all have to wear overalls and paint 'Saw em Off' on our ass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Valmy77

Valmy77 13567

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, Caddox said:

If Trump doesnt win by 5% I'll never post on this forum again. Will yall agree to the same?

How the fuck would I even know if you kept your pledge or not, dude I have never seen before and would never remember?

  • Hook 'Em 7
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18185

Posted
Posted
On 10/20/2020 at 9:03 PM, Helobious said:

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 

Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

 

The laughable 1 million is guaranteed at this point. Click bait dumbassery happens if Texas has a typical election day. 

Maybe Biden wins by +5. - James Brown.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Irwin F Fletcher

Irwin F Fletcher 3555

Posted
Posted
On 10/20/2020 at 8:15 PM, Irwin F Fletcher said:
On 10/20/2020 at 7:21 PM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:
I'm no math genius, but a 133% increase over last cycle is a METRIC FUCKTON of new voters. I can't imagine anywhere near half of them are voting for dotard

If we add 3M voters this cycle and push Biden to a win I'm buying beer at Great Heights for any Surly poster who is parched from the last four years.

I still can't believe it possible, but if we are exceeding the 2016 total by 3M votes, I'm buying some beer to celebrate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

Posted
Posted

Neighbors cleaning out garage today while I was cleaning garden; they asked me if I early voted. "Yes, did y'all?"

"Yes, we never early voted before, it's great!" They're ridin' with Biden. I almost fell over. They are Ag and they voted for Biden.

Tried to keep it cool, but did talk about how great the turn out is and hope it continues for the future....

This is a not bad sign. May not be enough, but it was a nice surprise.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4698

Posted
Posted

I am a pessimist by nature so I will be skeptical until everything is finalized.  But by far the most concrete piece of evidence we have to go on is early voter turnout.  Trump won in 2016 by a combo of him maximizing the turnout of his base and his opponent being overconfident and not maximizing the turnout that favored her.  Any increased turnout will heavily favor Biden.  It is really hard to see that and not expect a Biden landslide.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Satchel

Satchel 6982

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am a pessimist by nature so I will be skeptical until everything is finalized.  But by far the most concrete piece of evidence we have to go on is early voter turnout.  Trump won in 2016 by a combo of him maximizing the turnout of his base and his opponent being overconfident and not maximizing the turnout that favored her.  Any increased turnout will heavily favor Biden.  It is really hard to see that and not expect a Biden landslide.

The Comey surprise didn’t hurt Trump at all. In fact, I think it was determinative in his winning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted (edited)

image.png.ab613f9def97ed5bed0cffae4d93c0d6.png

image.thumb.png.f69b0a0be9505972370ca5e9b3fa1dec.png

Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,909,491 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,724,191 (48.7%)
Third Party - 76,232 (0.8%)

9,709,915 early votes according to current data on the Texas SOS website. Some more will come trickling in from late-reporting counties.

 

Edited by Huckleberry
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53331

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Satchel said:

The Comey surprise didn’t hurt Trump at all. In fact, I think it was determinative in his winning.

That had a hand in it for sure, but I think just as important was all the premature celebrating that I remember for the week or two prior to the election. I think that gave many people a sense that they could not vote (for a candidate they didn’t really like) and she’d still win. 
 

lesson learned, for a few elections at least. Well, one for sure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
elfenix

elfenix 34658

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,909,491 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,724,191 (48.7%)
Third Party - 76,232 (0.8%)

9,709,915 early votes according to current data on the Texas SOS website. Some more will come trickling in from late-reporting counties.

 

nearly 1.1 registered voters between el paso, hidalgo, and cameron, and they're trailing everyone else by about 150,000 votes.  feels like that could be trump's margin. 

 

 

(and LOL at the guy that doesn't post here trying to make a bet about not posting here)

Edited by elfenix
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18185

Posted
Posted

So, let's assume for a second the polling was right and Biden supporters were more likely to vote early. I think the polling I saw said 70% early for those planning to vote Biden and 70% election day for those planning to vote Trump. But, let's say the real number is 60% for both. That would mean that right now Trump would have to net 2 million votes on election day to win. Given that election day has seemed to be capped at 2 to 2.5 million votes, that would require an overwhelming election day victory for Trump. 

Just something to think about. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted

As you can see from the line chart above, 2020 early voting for the first week very closely mimicked the 2016 pattern. So I put together this chart showing what the total 2020 early voting turnout would have looked like if it matched the full pattern of 2016 but was only the normal 12 day period. This gives a better look at the relative scale of early voting turnout between years. Obviously the major caveat is that we're all waiting to find out the effect on Election Day turnout.

image.png.bb7b0bc367efcb6486cb69e78f9e0ee0.png

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18185

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

As you can see from the line chart above, 2020 early voting for the first week very closely mimicked the 2016 pattern. So I put together this chart showing what the total 2020 early voting turnout would have looked like if it matched the full pattern of 2016 but was only the normal 12 day period. This gives a better look at the relative scale of early voting turnout between years. Obviously the major caveat is that we're all waiting to find out the effect on Election Day turnout.

image.png.bb7b0bc367efcb6486cb69e78f9e0ee0.png

Did you just put the second and third week together or increase every day proportionately? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53331

Posted
Posted (edited)

Rounding to 10 million EV, if those are 51/48 Biden that’s a lead of 300,000. (1% for other) 5.1 million to 4.8 million  

at 1.5 million votes on Tuesday, trump would have to win 60/40 to make up that deficit. (No other to make the math line up perfectly) 900,000 to 600,000.  
 

I guess the question is the accuracy or plausibility of those two things.

Edited by Pato del Muerto
Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...