2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[The Dog 43807]

So, let's assume for a second the polling was right and Biden supporters were more likely to vote early. I think the polling I saw said 70% early for those planning to vote Biden and 70% election day for those planning to vote Trump. But, let's say the real number is 60% for both. That would mean that right now Trump would have to net 2 million votes on election day to win. Given that election day has seemed to be capped at 2 to 2.5 million votes, that would require an overwhelming election day victory for Trump. 
Just something to think about. 

The UMass poll has it 52/46 for Biden among early voters. I’d rerun using those instead.

Edit to add 53/39 for Trump among those who had yet to vote.

[The Dog 43807]

DP

[burntorangebongos 10681]

So what does that mean in English, math people? 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

1 minute ago, burntorangebongos said:

So what does that mean in English, math people? 

Nothing because we don’t know the most important part. 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The UMass poll has it 52/46 for Biden among early voters. I’d rerun using those instead.

Edit to add 53/39 for Trump among those who had yet to vote.

When was that poll conducted?  
because 52% of 9.7 million is quite a bit larger than 53% of 2 million. 

[Huckleberry 32703]

13 minutes ago, immamac said:

Really interesting on how it mirrors 2016 just higher. 

Well that's forced by me. Only point of that new look is an easier way to visualize how much higher early voting turnout was this year even by percentage. 

[immamac 42519]

Ah sweet. Thanks. 

[burntorangebongos 10681]

So who are the people that have yet to vote? Are they rural, old or young? Were they unable to vote due to no days off? How are they gonna vote on a Tuesday? Why do they think Trump will get more of the election day votes? Anybody know? 

 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

The 7 most populous counties in Texas have 297,034 more votes right now than the other 249 counties. Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, Collin and Denton
 

Just numbers goofin, nothing to takeaway

[Dahobbs 17447]

35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I took the total 2020 turnout and spread it according to the 2016 daily pattern. So closer to your second option.

I see. 

26 minutes ago, immamac said:

Really interesting on how it mirrors 2016 just higher. 

Yeah, that is because he made it mirror 2016. I misunderstood his process the first time. 

[The Dog 43807]

When was that poll conducted?  
because 52% of 9.7 million is quite a bit larger than 53% of 2 million. 

10/20-10/26

[Bruh Man 3160]

24 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

So who are the people that have yet to vote? Are they rural, old or young? Were they unable to vote due to no days off? How are they gonna vote on a Tuesday? Why do they think Trump will get more of the election day votes? Anybody know? 

 

Sign up for a textbank/phonebank shift with Beto's org this weekend and you can find out for yourself. They have several shifts open over the next three days. We need to touch base with all these missing voters. My guess most of them are still D's.

https://poweredxpeople.org/

Edited October 31, 2020 by Bruh Man

[Bruh Man 3160]

14 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Love me some Olivia Amato.

[HenryJames 65890]

 

[kevwun 15653]

That's how you start riots.  Tossing that many ballots would be unprecedented.

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Republicans are getting real desperate.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

If they throw out those 100,000 votes, I will riot. 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[immamac 42519]

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

That's how you start riots.  Tossing that many ballots would be unprecedented.

Imagine if the joe biden win margin was under 50k. Texas would go to war. 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

There might legit be violence in that scenario 

[Pasken 1309]

3 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

There might legit be violence in that scenario 

There should be.

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

There might legit be violence in that scenario 

And it would be 100% justified.

[immamac 42519]

I mean everyone knows you don't fuck with Texans or Texas. It would be one thing if they said they couldn't do it anymore, but throwing ballots out is fucking crazy. With 1 day to go. How will all those people vote again? 

[Pasken 1309]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

I mean everyone knows you don't fuck with Texans or Texas. It would be one thing if they said they couldn't do it anymore, but throwing ballots out is fucking crazy. With 1 day to go. How will all those people vote again? 

Not easily. A lot of people who did curb side voting have disabilities.

[immamac 42519]

Don't go inciting a riot on this site. Have to draw the line somewhere and I'm not gonna go to jail before things are real. 

[HenryJames 65890]

3 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Not easily. A lot of people who did curb side voting have disabilities.

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

Not easily. A lot of people who did curb side voting have disabilities.

I’ve also read stories about how people who had no intention of doing curbside were directed to that line by poll workers to speed things up. This is nuts.

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Still think Biden will win easily even if the Republicans try to rig a couple states.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I’ve also read stories about how people who had no intention of doing curbside were directed to that line by poll workers to speed things up. This is nuts.

This.  NONE of those voters voted in bad faith.  They followed the fucking rules.  The fact that the Republicans are even challenging those votes is so fucking far over the line, there should already be people protesting.

[Neonmoon 38127]

Throwing out already legally cast and received ballots is some crossing the line bullshit. 

[Valmy77 13094]

The legislature needs to pass an electoral law that says "fuck off Feds".

But seriously I am failing to see how the Feds have jurisdiction here. How is it their business where you are sitting when you vote? Will the Feds insist on special voting shoes?

Edited October 31, 2020 by Valmy77

[Bruh Man 3160]

13 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Still think Biden will win easily even if the Republicans try to rig a couple states.

that will screw down ballot races. especially the state house races in houston.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

A judge throwing away ballots the day before or on Election Day would be interesting to see how it plays out.

if you’re a judge who thinks the law may have been broken by Harris county, do you attempt to toss them out immediately thereby giving those voters an opportunity to vote in person on Election Day? Or do you delay the decision but then potentially disenfranchising those voters? Or agree it was unlawful but that tossing out vote harms innocent voters?

is Harris county planning to allow drive thru voting on Tuesday? Or was it early voting only?

personally I stayed away from drive thru purposefully because there was rumblings of its illegitimacy in the first place. I also thought it to be less safe from a covid standpoint than walking into a voting center. I have zero evidence of that but just a feeling.

[Valmy77 13094]

Why is it illegal? What is the federal law that regulates where you can be sitting when you vote?

[SimonBolivar 10932]

 

28 minutes ago, immamac said:

I mean everyone knows you don't fuck with Texans or Texas. It would be one thing if they said they couldn't do it anymore, but throwing ballots out is fucking crazy. With 1 day to go. How will all those people vote again? 

Sounds like the @Brisketexan signal is going up. 

[Foosters 17734]

2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Why is it illegal? What is the federal law that regulates where you can be sitting when you vote?

The argument is that state legislatures have exclusive power to set state election procedures. A local judge expanding, contracting, or modifying procedures is an impermissible order that lacks authority.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

35 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Not easily. A lot of people who did curb side voting have disabilities.

Could there be an ADA defense here that muddles things to help keep the votes?  

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

16 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

The legislature needs to pass an electoral law that says "fuck off Feds".

But seriously I am failing to see how the Feds have jurisdiction here. How is it their business where you are sitting when you vote? Will the Feds insist on special voting shoes?

In future elections you should bring all your shoes- so that you have them. 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

6 minutes ago, Foosters said:

The argument is that state legislatures have exclusive power to set state election procedures. A local judge expanding, contracting, or modifying procedures is an impermissible order that lacks authority.

Is it expanding the orders if they don’t explicitly address or prohibit something?

[Valmy77 13094]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

In future elections you should bring all your shoes- so that you have them. 

I demand a federal judge at every voting location so they can approve everything.

[Foosters 17734]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Is it expanding the orders if they don’t explicitly address or prohibit something?

Honestly, asking the wrong guy. I'm only like 60% sure I explained it right to begin with.

[Valmy77 13094]

8 minutes ago, Foosters said:

The argument is that state legislatures have exclusive power to set state election procedures. A local judge expanding, contracting, or modifying procedures is an impermissible order that lacks authority.

How were the procedures modified? Does the procedure specify one must be sitting or standing in a certain way? 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

I know it’s Doom:30 and people are pregaming ready to celebrate losing to OSU, but the SoS and SCOTX have been cool with curbside. 
 

 

 

[Ted Lange 16052]

10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

In future elections you should bring all your shoes- so that you have them. 

Hell of an old school Jerky Boys reference.  

[Guest]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

The 7 most populous counties in Texas have 297,034 more votes right now than the other 249 counties. Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, Collin and Denton
 

Just numbers goofin, nothing to takeaway

254 counties, there Hoss.  We've found a prime candidate to tabulate ballots...

[South Austin 52144]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

 

Fuckface mother fuckers.

[hornmpa96 2598]

The only potential relevant part of the Election statute in Texas is that the polling place “is located inside a building.”

That’s why I thought the drive through voting had been located in parking structures that are arguably a “building.”

[thepop 4409]

 

[Guest]

+1 on folks upset by shenanigans on 'technicalities towards otherwise properly cast ballots.

WE should be better than that.  Do it fucking right.

Edit: if comment belongs in another thread, I apologize.   Seemed relevant.

Edited October 31, 2020 by slorch

[Guest Lobo]

nmnm

Edited October 31, 2020 by Lobo

[Guest Lobo]

27 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

In future elections you should bring all your shoes- so that you have them. 

Trump election lawyers:  "the sidecar smashed into a polling place.  And the people that you work with and handle, I'll probably be suing them too right?"
Voters: "I don't understand what you're talking about.  Who are my clients?  I'm just voting.  Why you wanna sue me?"

Trump election lawyers:  "Why not?  Sue everybody!"  

Voters & Psychiatrists: "I'm sorry, I can't help you."

Trump election lawyers:  "Okay then, bye-bye."  

Good news for Trumpers, he has insurance.  But it was through a friend.  In Russia.