2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[thepop 4409]

No one cares my dude. Bet or no bet, fuck republicans

[Bama Chick 28596]

This wouldn’t be an “echo chamber” if all the Republicans weren’t hiding on other boards crying about “NO POLITICS!” while talking......politics.

[Valmy77 13094]

1 hour ago, Caddox said:

Do yall need a villain? Seems like the echo chamber in here could use one. 

Not really. Just somebody willing to engage in honest conversation. Not really looking for a troll.

[elfenix 34171]

This is the POS behind the case.  http://woodfilllaw.com

Of fucking course. Barely a mile away from his only client Steven Hotze. Guess I know where I'm taking a shit on Monday.

[gmr548 16517]

Show your work

Caddie being an idiot aside, it is everyone thinking Biden is going to win (some saying he’ll cruise with a 3+ percent victory) who need to show their work.

Red counties are also turning out at record rates. Taking for granted that we’re going to see another massive shift places like Collin and Denton counties, which were R+ 6-8 in 2018, is a huge leap of faith with only some democratic legislative internals to point to as evidence. Much of the low hanging anti trump fruit was already picked in 2018. Expecting another dramatic shift, especially when we’re seeing high turnout in Trumpistan too, is setting yourself up for disappointment.

[Biff Tannen 45497]

7 hours ago, Caddox said:

Do yall need a villain? Seems like the echo chamber in here could use one. 

I know I blew it with the ban bet, Ive been here since shaggy. I just dont post. Losing the ability would bother me greatly. 

The 100 dollar bet, i'm out. Like a guy earlier mentioned, an avatar bet would be fun. Maybe I'll just start a thread and talk in my own echo chamber?

Who the fuck is this guy?

[TexEx15 17487]

I keep coming back to the question if not now, when?  Turnout is the key to turning Texas blue and I’m not sure there will be another candidate/incumbent that will drive opposition turnout in Texas as much as trump has this year.  Cautiously optimistic.

[quigley 1527]

8 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I keep coming back to the question if not now, when?  Turnout is the key to turning Texas blue and I’m not sure there will be another candidate/incumbent that will drive opposition turnout in Texas as much as trump has this year.  Cautiously optimistic.

Two other variables: increase in voting age Latinos and a Latino candidate who's palatable to White people. A coalition of minorities and college-educated Whites requires the minority voters to actually show up.

I don't live in TX any longer, but Lina Hidalgo seems promising. What do you think about her?

[TexEx15 17487]

27 minutes ago, quigley said:

Two other variables: increase in voting age Latinos and a Latino candidate who's palatable to White people. A coalition of minorities and college-educated Whites requires the minority voters to actually show up.

I don't live in TX any longer, but Lina Hidalgo seems promising. What do you think about her?

I know she burst on to the scene due to COVID.  I like what I have heard though I’m not in Harris County.  She’s also not eligible for POTUS but could see a run for governor one day.

[immamac 42519]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Caddie being an idiot aside, it is everyone thinking Biden is going to win (some saying he’ll cruise with a 3+ percent victory) who need to show their work.

Red counties are also turning out at record rates. Taking for granted that we’re going to see another massive shift places like Collin and Denton counties, which were R+ 6-8 in 2018, is a huge leap of faith with only some democratic legislative internals to point to as evidence. Much of the low hanging anti trump fruit was already picked in 2018. Expecting another dramatic shift, especially when we’re seeing high turnout in Trumpistan too, is setting yourself up for disappointment.

RVAT didn't exist. Lincoln Project didn't exist. Large high profile GOP endorsements didn't exist. Pandemic didn't exist. 

There are many indications that trump will lose voter share from even within the GOP and not gain at all from Dem and lose voter share from unaffiliated. This is fact. 

High turnout only benefits one party and it's not the one trying to restrict voting and throw out ballots and/or stop counting. Why do you think there hasn't been a single Dem lawsuit to restrict in any way shape or form voting or counting? 

[Neonmoon 38127]

Ha of course, family lawyer Terry Yates is the biggest piece of shit. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Caddie being an idiot aside, it is everyone thinking Biden is going to win (some saying he’ll cruise with a 3+ percent victory) who need to show their work.

Red counties are also turning out at record rates. Taking for granted that we’re going to see another massive shift places like Collin and Denton counties, which were R+ 6-8 in 2018, is a huge leap of faith with only some democratic legislative internals to point to as evidence. Much of the low hanging anti trump fruit was already picked in 2018. Expecting another dramatic shift, especially when we’re seeing high turnout in Trumpistan too, is setting yourself up for disappointment.

50 thousand new voters in each of those counties since 2018. They are going to break hard for Biden and shift the percentages in those counties at least a couple of points by themselves. That's why I'm confident in an additional shift. I think you'll see smaller shifts in the big counties and potentially very large further leftward shifts in places like Williamson and Tarrant (very high turnout and large growth). The top 15 counties can give Biden the lead with less than a 3 point shift.  I think it happens in fairly dramatic fashion. 

 

[gmr548 16517]

43 minutes ago, immamac said:

RVAT didn't exist. Lincoln Project didn't exist. Large high profile GOP endorsements didn't exist. Pandemic didn't exist. 

There are many indications that trump will lose voter share from even within the GOP and not gain at all from Dem and lose voter share from unaffiliated. This is fact. 

High turnout only benefits one party and it's not the one trying to restrict voting and throw out ballots and/or stop counting. Why do you think there hasn't been a single Dem lawsuit to restrict in any way shape or form voting or counting? 

 

20 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

50 thousand new voters in each of those counties since 2018. They are going to break hard for Biden and shift the percentages in those counties at least a couple of points by themselves. That's why I'm confident in an additional shift. I think you'll see smaller shifts in the big counties and potentially very large further leftward shifts in places like Williamson and Tarrant (very high turnout and large growth). The top 15 counties can give Biden the lead with less than a 3 point shift.  I think it happens in fairly dramatic fashion. 

 

Most of that shift has already happened between 16 and 18. The political environment hasn't changed much outside of COVID, and we know opinions there unfortunately break largely on established partisan lines. We also know the GOP had a significant voter registration push in Texas. Non-voters in a non-competitive state are in both parties. I don't know if y'all just haven't been to Tarrant, Collin, or Denton County but the idea that there aren't votes for the GOP to round up there is silly.

I think it's reasonable to expect those counties to shift slightly because higher turnout does boost dems on net. That may be enough. But this is still a very Republican state and they're fired up too. A Biden victory is not likely, an certainly not by the margins discussed here.

[immamac 42519]

Most of that shift has already happened between 16 and 18. The political environment hasn't changed much outside of COVID, and we know opinions there unfortunately break largely on established partisan lines. We also know the GOP had a significant voter registration push in Texas. Non-voters in a non-competitive state are in both parties. I don't know if y'all just haven't been to Tarrant, Collin, or Denton County but the idea that there aren't votes for the GOP to round up there is silly.
I think it's reasonable to expect those counties to shift slightly because higher turnout does boost dems on net. That may be enough. But this is still a very Republican state and they're fired up too. A Biden victory is not likely, an certainly not by the margins discussed here.

You don't have a functioning brain capable of critical thinking or processing data apparently.

[Texaspython 231]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

 

Most of that shift has already happened between 16 and 18. The political environment hasn't changed much outside of COVID, and we know opinions there unfortunately break largely on established partisan lines. We also know the GOP had a significant voter registration push in Texas. Non-voters in a non-competitive state are in both parties. I don't know if y'all just haven't been to Tarrant, Collin, or Denton County but the idea that there aren't votes for the GOP to round up there is silly.

I think it's reasonable to expect those counties to shift slightly because higher turnout does boost dems on net. That may be enough. But this is still a very Republican state and they're fired up too. A Biden victory is not likely, an certainly not by the margins discussed here.

I agree with most of what you’re saying but I’d add, the dynamics of Texas politics are rapidly changing. I enjoy most repubs whistling past the graveyard on this.

Trump is a uniquely bad candidate in Texas. He’s been the greatest gift to Dems since Nixon. Trump has accelerated what was happening naturally.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

The Texas data I’ve seen shows first time voters, independents, and women breaking huge (10+) for Biden.  

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

 

Most of that shift has already happened between 16 and 18. The political environment hasn't changed much outside of COVID, and we know opinions there unfortunately break largely on established partisan lines. We also know the GOP had a significant voter registration push in Texas. Non-voters in a non-competitive state are in both parties. I don't know if y'all just haven't been to Tarrant, Collin, or Denton County but the idea that there aren't votes for the GOP to round up there is silly.

I think it's reasonable to expect those counties to shift slightly because higher turnout does boost dems on net. That may be enough. But this is still a very Republican state and they're fired up too. A Biden victory is not likely, an certainly not by the margins discussed here.

Again, you can't say most the shift already happened when there are over 10% new voters from 2018. The population increase in those counties is what is going to drive further shift leftward. At any rate, even a quarter of the shift from 2016-2018 results in a Biden victory.  So, you can be right about most the shift already happening and I'll still be right too. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

You don't have a functioning brain capable of critical thinking or processing data apparently.

Sent from my Surface Duo using Tapatalk
 

Thread break: Did you seriously get a Duo? Thoughts?

[gmr548 16517]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

You don't have a functioning brain capable of critical thinking or processing data apparently.


 

Maybe. Or perhaps you're falling into the trap of not scrutinizing available info enough because of what you want to see.

 

[immamac 42519]

Thread break: Did you seriously get a Duo? Thoughts?

See my comments in the android thread.

It's incredible for me, but I wouldn't recommend it if you use your phone mainly for consuming media and taking pictures. It's an incredible productivity device, but it's really just stupid if you only use 1 screen at a time and want to take pictures.

On gameday I have discord on one screen and the board open on the other, or I have twitter and the board open and can tweet from there. Which is more "work like" since I have shit to do on the board not just consume.

On work days calendar + email or surly + work or 2 side by side browsers doing research or side by side docs and email is just incredible and game changing. I can get so much done in a short amount of time. I can have slack and email open or slack and telegram or slack and surly.

I don't really see many apps with the full 2 screenfunctionality built out yet, but when they finally get going it's going to be awesome.

I keep it closed a lot more than I even predicted, which honestly is my favorite feature. When it's closed it's basically off. No distractions no blinking led no nothing. It's awesome.

[Nivek 16860]

I want Lina to shut down polling places in largely republican blocks and force them to stand in line for hours.   

[quigley 1527]

19 minutes ago, Nivek said:

I want Lina to shut down polling places in largely republican blocks and force them to stand in line for hours.   

Hopefully with no advanced warning.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

25 minutes ago, quigley said:

Hopefully with no advanced warning.

Due to unforeseen circumstances, we have had to close our river oaks area walk in polling station.  The drive up voting remains open for your convenience. 
 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Bored this morning so I wanted to create a what-if on how Texas could effectively have a tie. (FYI this is a Texas Health region map. Nothing to do with voting but a simple way to regionalize the state for voter analysis.)

1. Took early vote totals (9.8m) and estimated a 1.7m Tuesday to create an even 11.5m turnout.

• Proportionally allocated the 1.7m to each region based on the registered voter totals. This is a complete guess on Tuesday totals and its allocation.

2. Applied Cruz’s 2018 win % in each region with estimated vote total (early + allocation) to see where it stands. That gives Trump a 244K win. Obviously not a tie.

3. What assumptions could create an effective tie?

• Smaller/rural regions will have a smaller shift to Biden from 2018. Let’s go with 1% point.
• Larger regions (3,6,7,8) have a 2.43% point shift to Biden from 2018. Boom, Texas is officially purple.

Potential flaws

• Biden should overperform Beto in the Valley (11), who did not like Beto. 
• Will the smaller population regions have any Biden shift from Beto?  If they go 0%, then Biden needs the 4 large regions to all have a 2.7% shift to tie the race.
• No surprise but a tie requires a continued left shift. Trump love/hatred was already baked into the 2018 totals so perhaps there will be a 0 shift or even a red shift.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Again, you can't say most the shift already happened when there are over 10% new voters from 2018. The population increase in those counties is what is going to drive further shift leftward. At any rate, even a quarter of the shift from 2016-2018 results in a Biden victory.  So, you can be right about most the shift already happening and I'll still be right too. 

Add to that that Millennials supplanted Boomers as the largest demographic post 2018.

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Hopefully factored in Jesus Christ himself coming down to help boost Donald J Trump to the presidency.

Gonna have fun with the God wants Trump to be the President family members.  

[quigley 1527]

49 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Potential flaws

• Biden should overperform Beto in the Valley (11), who did not like Beto. 
• Will the smaller population regions have any Biden shift from Beto?  If they go 0%, then Biden needs the 4 large regions to all have a 2.7% shift to tie the race.
• No surprise but a tie requires a continued left shift. Trump love/hatred was already baked into the 2018 totals so perhaps there will be a 0 shift or even a red shift.

 

Good stuff!

 

Biden should overperform Beto in the Valley (11), who did not like Beto.

I don't understand the wording here. Do you expect Biden to outperform Beto or vice versa?

Will the smaller population regions have any Biden shift from Beto?  If they go 0%, then Biden needs the 4 large regions to all have a 2.7% shift to tie the race. No surprise but a tie requires a continued left shift. Trump love/hatred was already baked into the 2018 totals so perhaps there will be a 0 shift or even a red shift.

While you're correct, the feelings about the current administration were present in 2018, there are two obviousfactors that could push the shift from red to blue further:

1. Mid-terms are usually redder than prez elections.

2. Covid further energizing the anti-prez feelings, even from people who're part of his typical core group, old white folk.

[quigley 1527]

30 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Add to that that Millennials supplanted Boomers as the largest demographic post 2018.

I wish this were the case. Essentially Boomers = GenX = Millennials. Because olds turn out more, we'll probably have to wait four more years before it flips.

From Pew:

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

15 minutes ago, quigley said:

Good stuff!

 

Biden should overperform Beto in the Valley (11), who did not like Beto.

I don't understand the wording here. Do you expect Biden to outperform Beto or vice versa?

Will the smaller population regions have any Biden shift from Beto?  If they go 0%, then Biden needs the 4 large regions to all have a 2.7% shift to tie the race. No surprise but a tie requires a continued left shift. Trump love/hatred was already baked into the 2018 totals so perhaps there will be a 0 shift or even a red shift.

While you're correct, the feelings about the current administration were present in 2018, there are two obviousfactors that could push the shift from red to blue further:

1. Mid-terms are usually redder than prez elections.

2. Covid further energizing the anti-prez feelings, even from people who're part of his typical core group, old white folk.

For your first question, let me clarify. Beto won the Valley over Cruz. Each region shifted more blue in 2018 compared to 2016 but the Valley shifted less as a percentage. Now it's already blue but they didn't see as much enthusiasm growth for Beto that other regions saw.  I think Biden will do better than beto in the Valley. Now that region 11 in the map, also contains Corpus, which is NOT the Valley and conservative. 

[Pancho 44486]

 

[HenryJames 65890]

 

[HenryJames 65890]

6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Still got the fed hearing on Monday, but a pretty big tell that the state Supreme Court denied it. 

[Huckleberry 32703]

Another update on the SOS site today. Here are updated 2020 vote totals, as always if every county votes in the exact same Rep/Dem split as it did in 2018.

Trump - 4,915,156 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,727,196 (48.6%)
Third Party - 76,296 (0.8%)

For reference, here are the actual results from 2018

Cruz - 4,260,553 (50.9%)
O'Rourke - 4,045,632 (48.3%)
Third Party - 65,470 (0.8%)
 

Edited November 1, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Neonmoon 38127]

Very telling the “states rights” party is crawling to the federal courts on Monday to get the federal government to disenfranchise Texas voters 

[Dahobbs 17447]

2 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Still got the fed hearing on Monday, but a pretty big tell that the state Supreme Court denied it. 

Under the law, yes. The concern is that the judge is going to make up the law to re in favor .

[Biff Tannen 45497]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Very telling the “states rights” party is crawling to the federal courts on Monday to get the federal government to disenfranchise Texas voters 

Fuck em all

[JimmyJames 12271]

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Another update on the SOS site today. Here are updated 2020 vote totals, as always if every county votes in the exact same Rep/Dem split as it did in 2018.

Trump - 4,915,156 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,727,196 (48.6%)
Third Party - 76,296 (0.8%)
 

Based on the PPP poll I think around 400k switch from trump to Biden and Biden wins by 200-250k

[Dahobbs 17447]

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Another update on the SOS site today. Here are updated 2020 vote totals, as always if every county votes in the exact same Rep/Dem split as it did in 2018.

Trump - 4,915,156 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,727,196 (48.6%)
Third Party - 76,296 (0.8%)
 

Republican voters abandoned Cruz, but still voted for Abbott. I think they'll abandon Trump in even greater numbers. 

[SaucyJack 3487]

3 hours ago, Texaspython said:

I agree with most of what you’re saying but I’d add, the dynamics of Texas politics are rapidly changing. I enjoy most repubs whistling past the graveyard on this.

Trump is a uniquely bad candidate in Texas. He’s been the greatest gift to Dems since Nixon. Trump has accelerated what was happening naturally.

everybody needs to understand this.

13 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Under the law, yes. The concern is that the judge is going to make up the law to re in favor .

I doubt it happens. The judge would be doing something unprecedented and would make national news. 

[Biff Tannen 45497]

Just now, JimmyJames said:

I doubt it happens. The judge would be doing something unprecedented and would make national news. 

And the people will answer. 

[gmr548 16517]

18 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Because it was a ridiculous stunt by the GOP after they'd already tried once. I expected the court to toss them the first time they ruled on Harris County. They didn't. Zero reason to reverse course now.

[Bama Chick 28596]

I doubt it happens. The judge would be doing something unprecedented and would make national news. 

Read this thread on this judge’s history.

The worry is very well founded.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

On the assumption that Hanen decides the votes should be removed, wouldn't this immediately get kicked to the appeals court?  And at some point, wouldn't a judge or appeals court say that the plaintiffs waited too late to effectively stop an election?

A judge would have to give those 100K+ voters the time to be notified so they could re-vote on Tuesday. The county would most likely have no method to contact people directly and would have to rely on local media to get out the word, which would be ineffective.

However, if the Texas Supreme Court has already made the ruling that this does not violate state law, how would drive-thru voting violate federal law or the constitution?

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Wasn’t there something on here about judges can be reassigned?  Seems like this judge might want to consider where he will be spending the next 4 years or more of his career if he renders the obviously incorrect ruling. 

[gmr548 16517]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

On the assumption that Hanen decides the votes should be removed, wouldn't this immediately get kicked to the appeals court?  And at some point, wouldn't a judge or appeals court say that the plaintiffs waited too late to effectively stop an election?

A judge would have to give those 100K+ voters the time to be notified so they could re-vote on Tuesday. The county would most likely have no method to contact people directly and would have to rely on local media to get out the word, which would be ineffective.

However, if the Texas Supreme Court has already made the ruling that this does not violate state law, how would drive-thru voting violate federal law or the constitution?

All correct but lol at thinking the 5th circuit would thwart the GOP

[immamac 42519]

you guys are so fucking retarded. Texas Law is Texas Law not US law, there is no US Law that says they have to throw out the votes. The federal courts can go get fucked.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

you guys are so fucking retarded. Texas Law is Texas Law not US law, there is no US Law that says they have to throw out the votes. The federal courts can go get fucked.

Other than the federal law is whatever the scotus says it is. 

[Surly Bevo 24696]

31 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I doubt it happens. The judge would be doing something unprecedented and would make national news. 

Not sure national news is a concern for Andy

In February 2015, Hanen granted the State of Texas's motion for a nationwide preliminary injunction barring President Barack Obama from carrying out the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans (DAPA) program.[6] In United States v. Texas, that ruling was affirmed by an equally divided Supreme Court of the United States on June 23, 2016 (with an eight-member bench due to the death of Justice Antonin Scalia).[6]

[immamac 42519]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Other than the federal law is whatever the scotus says it is. 

That's actually not true. stop being a dumbass. Legislators make the laws, Judges decide if laws are constitutional. 

This isn't a question of federal opinion. The Texas Supreme Court has already declined the case and SOS has signed off on it. This is 100% states rights and if this is the hill the SCOTUS decides to die on with regards to states rights and elections then you have a broken ass fucking brain.