2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Idiocy

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

The appeal of Hanen’s order.  Asking for a ruling before voting starts tomorrow. 
 

 

 

 

Would have been nice if Hanen would have said the motion was untimely for day-of voting too.  Give 5th something to stamp. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Lololololololol

Houston case draws a panel of 

Stewart 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_E._Stewart

Graves 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_E._Graves_Jr.

and Higginson

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_A._Higginson

at the Fifth Circuit.  They tell Hotze GFY.

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

Can we change this to the Texas voting thread?

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I saw that tweet. I thought it was excellent. I’m also a suspicious that Evan Smith didn’t actually create the chart.  He’s too highfalutin to do menial tasks like that. 

[The Dog 43807]

OOOOOPS

 

[gmr548 16516]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

OOOOOPS

 

I believe it was GOLL that said, "These are stupid people who are bad at politics."

[atomheartbevo 89449]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I believe it was GOLL that said, "These are stupid people who are bad at politics."

I would have said "bad at setting up automated emails", but it's the same thing.

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10145]

8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

OOOOOPS

 

I mean there is Early voting and there is EARLY voting

[atomheartbevo 89449]

So Travis hit 60% just now.  Getting to 78% seems really hard, but even 70% would be welcome.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Travis hit 60% just now.  Getting to 78% seems really hard, but even 70% would be welcome.

huh? we were at a fraction under 65% at the end of early voting. Are you looking at only in-person voting? Because the number you cited seems to be that

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Travis hit 60% just now.  Getting to 78% seems really hard, but even 70% would be welcome.

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct30.pdf

[Valmy77 13094]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Travis hit 60% just now.  Getting to 78% seems really hard, but even 70% would be welcome.

I think you are confused with another County? Travis hit 60% last week.

[Biff Tannen 45497]

54 minutes ago, The Dog said:

OOOOOPS

 

Not so much "oops" as "blatant voter suppression".

[Neonmoon 38127]

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Travis hit 60% just now.  Getting to 78% seems really hard, but even 70% would be welcome.

We need 45,332.50 votes to hit 70%

Here are the rest of the totals needed for each percent total

Percent	Needed 11/3
64.70%
70.00%	45,332.50
71.00%	53,884.25
72.00%	62,436.00
73.00%	70,987.75
74.00%	79,539.50
75.00%	88,091.25
76.00%	96,643.00
77.00%	105,194.75
78.00%	113,746.50
79.00%	122,298.25
80.00%	130,850.00
81.00%	139,401.75
82.00%	147,953.50
83.00%	156,505.25
84.00%	165,057.00
85.00%	173,608.75
86.00%	182,160.50
87.00%	190,712.25
88.00%	199,264.00

 

2016 Numbers

Registered Voters: 732,037 

Early Vote: 368,005

Election Day: 100,175

 

2020 Numbers

Registered Voters: 855,175

Early Vote: 553,290

Election Day: 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Neonmoon

[The Dog 43807]

keep in mind many may vote at lunchtime or on the way home from work. polls are open for a while.

[jimmyjazz 45560]

This website is not very clear.  It would seem they are counting early votes, but perhaps not mail-in ballots?

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/travis-nov-03-2020/index.html

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

19 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We need 45,332.50 votes to hit 70%

Here are the rest of the totals needed for each percent total

Percent	Needed 11/3
64.70%
70.00%	45,332.50
71.00%	53,884.25
72.00%	62,436.00
73.00%	70,987.75
74.00%	79,539.50
75.00%	88,091.25
76.00%	96,643.00
77.00%	105,194.75
78.00%	113,746.50
79.00%	122,298.25
80.00%	130,850.00
81.00%	139,401.75
82.00%	147,953.50
83.00%	156,505.25
84.00%	165,057.00
85.00%	173,608.75
86.00%	182,160.50
87.00%	190,712.25
88.00%	199,264.00

 

2016 Numbers

Registered Voters: 732,037 

Early Vote: 368,005

Election Day: 100,175

 

2020 Numbers

Registered Voters: 855,175

Early Vote: 553,290

Election Day: 

we're already halfway to the number needed to get to 70%. I'm betting we'll see a large increase in the next two hours of people voting at lunch

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

This website is not very clear.  It would seem they are counting early votes, but perhaps not mail-in ballots?

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/travis-nov-03-2020/index.html

that site just shows in-person ballots

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Hoping Texas is the opposite of the blue wall states 4 years ago. Actually I hope it’s enough to get called right around the time west coast polls close so they can call tx, ca, wa, or, nv, and az at the same time. 
6 pointed coffin lid. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[gmr548 16516]

Carrying over from the larger election thread, but supposedly the Biden campaign estimates that Trump needs 49 percent of election day votes in Texas to carry the state. Their estimated turnout was not mentioned. 

Take that with a grain of salt, but if true it implies Trump had already won as of the end of EV and is going to cruise to a victory larger than any of us reasonably expected, because he will smash 49 percent today. If anywhere near accurate Trump will have a couple hundred thousand vote cushion.

Again, though, it isn't like the Biden campaign would be yelling from the rooftops about wining Texas so take it for what it is.

[TexasEd 8064]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

This website is not very clear.  It would seem they are counting early votes, but perhaps not mail-in ballots?

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/travis-nov-03-2020/index.html

did no click but the link says live voter turnout?  🤪

[jimmyjazz 45560]

4 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

did no click but the link says live voter turnout?  🤪

The link says that but the website is as clear as mud.  It doesn't clarify that it doesn't include absentee voters, and it claims 60.7% "turnout".  No big deal, it's useful for tracking the days' turnout (which stands at 27K at this point).

[TexasEd 8064]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The link says that but the website is as clear as mud.  It doesn't clarify that it doesn't include absentee voters, and it claims 60.7% "turnout".  No big deal, it's useful for tracking the days' turnout (which stands at 27K at this point).

clicked through.  Yeah a note would be nice that they don't have mail in ballots on there but they don't have a mail in ballot color for the pie chart.

[elfenix 34171]

100,000+ votes so far today

 

 

early voting tab was about 64k by 1:50

Edited November 3, 2020 by elfenix

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

straight fire from Harris Co

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

 

[Huckleberry 32703]

For those who don't know, Fort Bend was an O'Rourke county. 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

If Eliz Markowitz beats Gary Gates in Fort Bend, I am going to dig up all the butthurt posts from their special election asking if Beto is a drag on the Democratic Party. This was always going to be her best shot.

Edited November 3, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

For those who don't know, Fort Bend was an O'Rourke county. 

Damn right it was.  I'm really hoping that this super-sized turnout brings Sri a win over Nehls (and his stupid-ass bigger than life-size campaign posters).

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

For those who don't know, Fort Bend was an O'Rourke county. 

Hillary won it too.  

Edited November 3, 2020 by Chuckie Finster

[Snake Diggity 4614]

Is it safe to say Texas’ turnout has exceeded all the thresholds previously mentioned in this thread that would indicate Texas is blue?

I still think Texas will be Trump +3 but looking at the numbers I think turnout is where everyone in this thread hoped it would be.

[South Austin 52144]

Just now, Snake Diggity said:

Is it safe to say Texas’ turnout has exceeded all the thresholds previously mentioned in this thread that would indicate Texas is blue?

I still think Texas will be Trump +3 but looking at the numbers I think turnout is where everyone in this thread hoped it would be.

If you think Texas is Trump +3, then Texas is not blue. 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

9 minutes ago, South Austin said:

If you think Texas is Trump +3, then Texas is not blue. 

Right.  I was saying that despite turnout being high, I think Texas will still go to Trump.

[Neonmoon 38127]

 

[Michael Knight 12898]

Check if your vote counted

 

https://www.txballot.org/

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Is there a statewide vote turnout tracker?

[elfenix 34171]

harris county:

 

 

[elfenix 34171]

 

 

 

 

[elfenix 34171]

 

another 10k, crossed 1.6 million votes cast

 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14521]

Harris County might add 400K votes over 2016.  If you give Hillary the 3rd party vote that year, she loses by 500K votes.

[Caddox 952]

I'm here. Have been traveling. I'll do an avatar bet. Or an IP ban bet. I dont post a lot but I check the site daily. Would rather not be IP banned. 

[elfenix 34171]

goddamnit white people

 

 

[Huckleberry 32703]

Roughly 10K in 30 minutes. I don't see that going down with the after work voters, so Harris County should finish with over 200K votes today.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

Had to run an errand at lunch.  Saw a guy in a large pickup with American and Trump flags apparently driving up and down in front of O. Henry Middle School.  He looked like he could barely see over the steering wheel, so I felt sorry for him.   

This afternoon, saw a guy on the Mopac bridge at Spicewood Springs/West Anderson Mill walking back and forth over Mopac waving Trump and American flags.  Both he and the shorty in the pickup clearly had that mushroom-dick energy going on.  

I shouldn’t joke, while the pickup driver just looked like an angry white guy, bridge guy clearly had serious mental issues.  

Downtown Austin had lots of bored DPS troopers doing loops around various areas.  Saw some really bored National Guard members, who were clearly not happy to be doing whatever they were doing, and they were having to wear body armor.  

[Michael Knight 12898]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Switching to shep smith at CNBC for the duration 

[Huckleberry 32703]

Counties that are coming in are right at 2018 vote shares or a little above or below. That analysis I was running therefore predicts a 2 to 2.5% win for Trump. That's before Election Day votes, though..

Edited November 4, 2020 by Huckleberry