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Posted (edited)
  On 11/4/2020 at 1:24 AM, Huckleberry said:

Counties that are coming in are right at 2018 vote shares or a little above or below. That analysis I was running therefore predicts a 2 to 2.5% win for Trump. That's before Election Day votes, though..

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Any chance that the growth in these areas is enough to where the same margins can be enough additional votes to overcome less growth in the rural areas?

Texas getting run on msnbc now

tarrant at trump +0.2

Edited by Pato del Muerto
Posted

Hegar was always going to lose.

  On 11/4/2020 at 1:34 AM, Pato del Muerto said:

Any chance that the growth in these areas is enough to where the same margins can be enough additional votes to overcome less growth in the rural areas?

Texas getting run on msnbc now

tarrant at trump +0.2

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The analysis includes the growth and is based on vote totals.

Posted

Doesn't seem like a good night for Texas.   Not going to beat Beto's vote share.   I didn't think it would flip but thought it had an outside shot at equaling or slightly exceeding Beto

Posted
  On 11/4/2020 at 1:41 AM, Ted Lange said:
FL. +1 Trump, Texas Trump +3. Biden was never winning either.  PA is what matters. 

Haven’t seen a margin that’s surprised me yet. I said Texas was Trump +3 or 4 all along.

Any chance we’ve got is narrow as shit.
Posted

Very early in the process, Election Day votes in Harris County are 52.9-44.7 for Biden while early votes (including mail) were 56.4-42.4 for Biden. Just to get a sense of the early versus ED voting we were discussing. Early was +14 and ED is +8. Still early and I definitely have not looked on a precinct level to see which ones have reported, etc.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

This was my point that the baseline was not 2018 I’m texas but somewhere right of that bc Dems were more energized in 18. I had trump at 2.5 or 3. Surprised at the valley...this also shows Ray Dog was wrong for about the millionth time- there were absolutely lazy GOP voters who weren’t voting along with Dems who figured why bother. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
  On 11/4/2020 at 7:18 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

This was my point that the baseline was not 2018 I’m texas but somewhere right of that bc Dems were more energized in 18. I had trump at 2.5 or 3. Surprised at the valley...this also shows Ray Dog was wrong for about the millionth time- there were absolutely lazy GOP voters who weren’t voting along with Dems who figured why bother. 

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Go fuck yourself. 

  • Hook 'Em 2


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