2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[Ghost of LL 15492]

16 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

Could the George Floyd have been the catalyst to ramp up Harris County?

I wonder if that's some of it.

I think the biggest issue is just one of accessibility.  How many people didn't vote yesterday because of the long lines?  I know I was one of them.

But Harris County has opened so many new polling places as to make it much more accessible.  It's kind of a supply-creating-its-own-demand type of deal.

[Horn Dogg 3808]

52 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don't think you have to wonder man. That's what I keep telling Brisket when I say this thing is over (not texas but nationally). He threaded the needle last time around- it seems pretty obvious that's not what's going on here.

I gave my wife a hard time for voting on the first day. She stood in line for 75 minutes in a rural area of Harris County. I was like- if you just wait two days you could be in and out in 5 minutes. She wanted to go vote when the polls open up. She always votes as a habit and b/c she's been taught to vote- so it's not like this is a new vote - it's more like- just getting this in as soon as I can. Shrug- ok.  The anti Trump sentiment is high.  We see it.  It's going to be historic I think.

I hope all this motivation to vote early is indeed anti-Trump.  He sure motivated me to get up and vote as early as possible.  Nothing felt better than casting that vote against Trump!

[Hank Scorpio 17723]

Montgomery County is nothing but stupid rednecks, oil and gas people, and used car/jetski salesmen with a permanent Oakley tan. It is the embodiment of Boaters for Trump and is tied with Williamson for the worst County in Texas. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah man. I can see biden pushing 30 there. He’ll get some converts, he’ll get most of the independents. The counter is if turnout is way higher in MOCO and there’s an Election Day red wave. But 30% isn’t crazy talk. But 35% likely is as Wulaw said.

In 2018 Beto got 27% and received 6,000 additional votes over Hillary. Cruz got 13,000 less votes than Trump. Oddly though, his percentage was roughly the same as Trump (72.28% for Cruz vs 73% for Trump). I don't think there is a ton of room for movement upward unless you're talking about mass defection from suburban house wives or a huge influx of new voters. The large day increase is at least some evidence that the latter is possible. 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

31 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What if this huge voter turnout is a red wave made up of younger rural/exurban Yeti-sticker-on-their-truck types who were previously disengaged politically, but have fully jumped onto Trumpism as a lifestyle and repudiation of big city values?

Terrifying.

I can't tell if you are serious or not- but no- that's not at all happening. We would see that somewhere and there is just literally no evidence of that happening. 

Now- is Texas getting purple going to bring out some people to vote that weren't otherwise likely to vote b/c- who cares? Sure. It's not like all the non votes out there in Texas are owned by the Dems- there is some lazy GOP as well.  But not as many and no way to describe what you are talking about.  

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

In 2018 Beto got 27% and received 6,000 additional votes over Hillary. Cruz got 13,000 less votes than Trump. Oddly though, his percentage was roughly the same as Trump (72.28% for Cruz vs 73% for Trump). I don't think there is a ton of room for movement upward unless you're talking about mass defection from suburban house wives or a huge influx of new voters. The large day increase is at least some evidence that the latter is possible. 

It's been a fastest growing count in the nation type for like 20 years. Yes, lots of new voters. Lots. Also- I don't think they are the type of suburban housewives abandoning him in great numbers.  Not in the Woodlands.  Places like Rice Village or the like?  Yeah- that's probably getting deep blue.  But I think the people out on the west side moving to Cypress, Katy and The Woodlands are pretty well still conservative and on the train (I realize the Woodlands is due North on 45 but I'm dividing Houston into quadrants and on the axis of I-10 and I-45 and that's my north west quadrant as I think of it.  

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We would see that somewhere and there is just literally no evidence of that happening. 

 

The county with the 2nd biggest jump from day early voting totals in 2016 to 2020 is a 70% Trump county per the conversation above. That's a little concerning, though it doesn't necessarily mean anything yet. 

I'm not saying it's likely. I think there's about a 10% chance that there's an underground red wave about to burst full of new truck nutz voters, and a 90% chance that Biden wins (nationally, not Texas). But 10% is still too much.

Edited October 14, 2020 by BradInATX

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

35 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

I also would like to see the numbers happening on the other counties on the I 35 belt. Does Biden cut into the margins in Comal and Guadalupe Counties due to SA growth? Does the margins shrink in Bell and McClellan counties due to an engaged African American voting body?

so- if you want to worry about Trump winning the worry is this- there is no engaged AA voting body.  Trump peels away a couple percent- he gets 10% of the total overall vote share and the total votes are the same as 2016 way behind 2008 and 2012.  There have been some polls that say he's up into the 15-25% territory with black males. And I've seen some talk that there isn't a lot of enthusiasm for AA voters with Biden and they also aren't uniquely pissed at Trump- he's just same old same old to them and not a big motivator to vote like he is with the white suburban women. That and there's some white suburban women who just are afraid to say they kinda like Trump.  More of those than can be believed. And their husbands are telling their wives no dear- I'm not voting for Trump but then they get in the booth and do so and lie to their suddenly woke wives about it.
And the polls somehow missed all of this. 
But yeah- that's pretty far fetched scenario and I think you are just going to see death by a thousand cuts for Trump in all those places you said for all those reasons you said.  

[hayden_horn 11360]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

so- if you want to worry about Trump winning the worry is this- there is no engaged AA voting body.  Trump peels away a couple percent- he gets 10% of the total overall vote share and the total votes are the same as 2016 way behind 2008 and 2012.  There have been some polls that say he's up into the 15-25% territory with black males. And I've seen some talk that there isn't a lot of enthusiasm for AA voters with Biden and they also aren't uniquely pissed at Trump- he's just same old same old to them and not a big motivator to vote like he is with the white suburban women. That and there's some white suburban women who just are afraid to say they kinda like Trump.  More of those than can be believed. And their husbands are telling their wives no dear- I'm not voting for Trump but then they get in the booth and do so and lie to their suddenly woke wives about it.
And the polls somehow missed all of this. 
But yeah- that's pretty far fetched scenario and I think you are just going to see death by a thousand cuts for Trump in all those places you said for all those reasons you said.  

um, i mean, i didn't even make it past your first sentence. are you fucking crazy? are you paying attention at all?

if you have data for your contention, i'd like to see it. i feel like we'll see a much higher african american voter bloc in 2020.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

32 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I wonder if that's some of it.

I think the biggest issue is just one of accessibility.  How many people didn't vote yesterday because of the long lines?  I know I was one of them.

But Harris County has opened so many new polling places as to make it much more accessible.  It's kind of a supply-creating-its-own-demand type of deal.

I doubt it's any of the first sentence and almost all the last sentence.  I know there's a bit of a geographic connection to Houston with him but we aren't talking about Jose Fucking Altuve here man, I don't see any more excitement around Houston or agitation over Houston than any other major city around.
Also- I have no idea what our AA population is or any other big cities is, but anecdotally I'd guess Houston is more hispanic/asian/other than black from a minority percentage perspective. Should probably not be lazy and type that but google instead, but I will roll the dice and shoot my shot. 

[Huckleberry 32703]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I very much think Hays is going to be blue this year.  Not by just a whole lot.  But it'll be blue.

But it's not enough for Harris County's voting increase to be a lot more than Montgomery County.  We need Montgomery County's increase to be negligible.  Clinton lost by 800,000 votes in 2016.  That's a lot of ground to make up.  We make that up with higher turnout in Harris County and flat turnout in the exurban/rural counties.  And right now, the King of the Exurbs is coming in with pretty fucking strong turnout.

It's concerning.

There is something going on with Montgomery County's numbers. According to their roster:

https://elections.mctx.org/evRoster.asp?ELID=69&curLang=English

They had 10,354 people vote early in-person yesterday (once you filter out duplicates and only have the "E" for Early in-person votes). That obviously does not match their reported early voting totals. It's possible that the 20,874 reported here:

https://elections.mctx.org/pdf/GEN110320/rptEVDaily.pdf?ts=88294

includes mail-in ballots received prior to yesterday. Found this which indicates that Montgomery County didn't go from 12K to 20K, it actually went down from 12,781 in 2016 to 10,491 yesterday :
 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/neighborhood/moco/news/article/High-voter-turnout-spurs-Montgomery-County-to-15647715.php

Quote

Montgomery County Election Central reported Wednesday 10,383 voters cast ballots Monday (sic) with another 10,491 voting absentee. That brings the total of voters for the first day of early voting to 20,874.

In 2016, the last presidential election cycle, 20,433 voters cast ballots on the first day of early voting. However, only 7,652 were absentee at that time.

Edited October 14, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

10 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The county with the 2nd biggest jump from day early voting totals in 2016 to 2020 is a 70% Trump county per the conversation above. That's a little concerning, though it doesn't necessarily mean anything yet. 

I'm not saying it's likely. I think there's about a 10% chance that there's an underground red wave about to burst full of new truck nutz voters, and a 90% chance that Biden wins (nationally, not Texas). But 10% is still too much.

Man I have to think if that was going to happen it'd have been picked up somewhere, anywhere, by now.  

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

There is something going on with Montgomery County's numbers. According to their roster:

https://elections.mctx.org/evRoster.asp?ELID=69&curLang=English

They had 10,354 people vote early in-person yesterday (once you filter out duplicates and only have the "E" for Early in-person votes). That obviously does not match their reported early voting totals. It's possible that the 20,874 reported here:

https://elections.mctx.org/pdf/GEN110320/rptEVDaily.pdf?ts=88294

includes mail-in ballots received prior to yesterday. Found this which indicates that Montgomery County didn't go from 12K to 20K, it actually went down from 12,781 in 2016 to 10,491 yesterday :
 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/neighborhood/moco/news/article/High-voter-turnout-spurs-Montgomery-County-to-15647715.php

 

 

Ha. So LL gets all worried- we have 2 pages of rampant speculation and then find out it's a data/reporting/coding error.  Sounds about right. 

[Huckleberry 32703]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ha. So LL gets all worried- we have 2 pages of rampant speculation and then find out it's a data/reporting/coding error.  Sounds about right. 

Yep, their in-person as of first day of early voting went down from 12,781 to 10,491. Their same-same comparison including absentee ballots received as of the first day of early voting is 20,433 in 2016 and 20,874 this year.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

4 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

um, i mean, i didn't even make it past your first sentence. are you fucking crazy? are you paying attention at all?

if you have data for your contention, i'd like to see it. i feel like we'll see a much higher african american voter bloc in 2020.

If you are going to comment you ought to make it further than the first sentence. I literally explained at the beginning and again at the end, that while not particularly plausible if Trump wins that will be the reason for the win. Then, in the middle threw out some other things that would have to happen and referenced lots of polls that seem to have way to high AA numbers for Trump that we've all said- nope- no way, and then said at the end that I find it incredibly unlikely any of the stuff that came before it is true but if Trump were to amazingly win that would be the reason for it.

Do better at reading man, do better. 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

Yep, their in-person as of first day of early voting went down from 12,781 to 10,491. Their same-same comparison including absentee ballots received as of the first day of early voting is 20,433 in 2016 and 20,874 this year.

Which that increase in total votes to total votes probably is pretty dead balls on accurate to match the increase in population.  

[SydneyCarton 47884]

33 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

In 2018 Beto got 27% and received 6,000 additional votes over Hillary. Cruz got 13,000 less votes than Trump. Oddly though, his percentage was roughly the same as Trump (72.28% for Cruz vs 73% for Trump). I don't think there is a ton of room for movement upward unless you're talking about mass defection from suburban house wives or a huge influx of new voters. The large day increase is at least some evidence that the latter is possible. 

Are you from Houston? Honest question. I see lots of stats in your post that make sense, but Montgomery County houses The Woodlands. That’s 100k people. There are a fuck ton of suburban white women there. And a lot of folks who loved there for the new Exxon campus from all over houston. 
 

it’s not crazy talk. Sure it’s not a lock either, but I’m saying it’s not outside the realm of possibility. 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

50 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Then we look into relocating to Costa Rica. 

Isla Nublar to be precise.  Those kinds of dinosaurs can't vote.

Edited October 14, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Huckleberry 32703]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Which that increase in total votes to total votes probably is pretty dead balls on accurate to match the increase in population.  

Should be pretty close when you give the mail-in ballots an extra week or so because of the even earlier in-person start.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

For Hayden:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2020/10/11/black-turnout-biden-three-cities-viewed-key-vs-trump/114261798/

The back half of this article is pretty typical of a lot of the pieces that say- don't love Biden, taking vote for granted- mix in some Herschell Walker commercials, talk about Kanye etc etc and there are plenty of articles that say there isn't going to be this massive turnout.  
If you want to bet I bet the turnout is lower than 08 and 12 and higher than 16, but closer to 16 levels than 08/12 levels for AA voters.  

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yep, their in-person as of first day of early voting went down from 12,781 to 10,491. Their same-same comparison including absentee ballots received as of the first day of early voting is 20,433 in 2016 and 20,874 this year.

So we're back to gettin' errbody?

Whew. That Montgomery County stuff just didn't jibe at all with my general perception (and hope) of what's going on in Texas and around the country. 

Edited October 14, 2020 by BradInATX

[atomheartbevo 89449]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

What if this huge voter turnout is a red wave made up of younger rural/exurban Yeti-sticker-on-their-truck types who were previously disengaged politically, but have fully jumped onto Trumpism as a lifestyle and repudiation of big city values?

Terrifying.

Are those folks better off than they were 4 years ago?  Is their part of the economy doing as well as Trump keeps saying?

[Huckleberry 32703]

15 most populous counties in Texas (same chart I posted daily in 2018):

Obviously COVID is going to screw this up because there will be more days this year but should still be somewhat informative.

Edited October 14, 2020 by Huckleberry

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are those folks better off than they were 4 years ago?  Is their part of the economy doing as well as Trump keeps saying?

Those folks are too stupid to blame the right people.

[Huckleberry 32703]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

So we're back to gettin' errbody?

Whew. That Montgomery County stuff just didn't jibe at all with my general perception (and hope) of what's going on in Texas and around the country. 

I don't know about that but the bottom line is that Harris County is the crazy outlier in terms of vote quantity so far.

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Harris County just hit 100k again today. Still 90 minutes left open

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Outside of Texas, multiple states already 35-40% of mail in ballots received.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[Pasken 1309]

4 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Outside of Texas, multiple states already 35-40% of mail in ballots received.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Austin had double the amount of mail in ballots yesterday as 2016. Seems like in person voting will be at roughly the same amount for the 2nd day in a row though.

[Dahobbs 17447]

12 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

15 most populous counties in Texas (same chart I posted daily in 2018):

Obviously COVID is going to screw this up because there will be more days this year but should still be somewhat informative.

What is that day 7 drop? That's too consistent and dramatic to be noise. Are locations closed or something on that day? Halloween? 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I don't know about that but the bottom line is that Harris County is the crazy outlier in terms of vote quantity so far.

Have you made sure they don't have a reporting error yet?

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

What is that day 7 drop? That's too consistent and dramatic to be noise. Are locations closed or something on that day? Halloween? 

Do you even Sunday/Funday bro?

[Huckleberry 32703]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What is that day 7 drop? That's too consistent and dramatic to be noise. Are locations closed or something on that day? Halloween? 

Sunday I think? Actually I think it might be Monday, big drop after the weekend voters.

Edited October 14, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Huckleberry 32703]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Have you made sure they don't have a reporting error yet?

I went straight to each individual county's site and looked at rosters and totals reports. That's how I figured out the MC issue. I'm pretty sure I'm using reported in-person votes for everyone. Harris County actually splits out in-person from mail-in on their report (always have) which is helpful. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Good on you for posting those, Huck. Keep it up as you have time, very cool to see.

[Dahobbs 17447]

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Sunday I think? 

Good point. I guess since early voting started on a Tuesday this year I wasn't even thinking about Sunday being the issue. 

[Huckleberry 32703]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Good on you for posting those, Huck. Keep it up as you have time, very cool to see.

Thanks, as we all know I'm a spreadsheet dork, and it helps drive discussion which is why we're here.

If 2020 early voting follows the consistent curve from the previous three elections then we're looking at over 43% of all registered voters voting in person and early. And that's just based on the normal 12 day schedule.

[Aqua Buddha 14521]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Montgomery County is nothing but stupid rednecks, oil and gas people, and used car/jetski salesmen with a permanent Oakley tan. It is the embodiment of Boaters for Trump and is tied with Williamson for the worst County in Texas. 

You forgot picture of themselves driving with said Oakley’s on.

[Bevo Num1 1004]

Just checking in to say I voted in Hays county. 20 minutes in and out. Straight Dem.

[Aqua Buddha 14521]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What is that day 7 drop? That's too consistent and dramatic to be noise. Are locations closed or something on that day? Halloween? 

People rush out and do it early or procrastinate and do it late.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

42 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

There is something going on with Montgomery County's numbers. According to their roster:

https://elections.mctx.org/evRoster.asp?ELID=69&curLang=English

They had 10,354 people vote early in-person yesterday (once you filter out duplicates and only have the "E" for Early in-person votes). That obviously does not match their reported early voting totals. It's possible that the 20,874 reported here:

https://elections.mctx.org/pdf/GEN110320/rptEVDaily.pdf?ts=88294

includes mail-in ballots received prior to yesterday. Found this which indicates that Montgomery County didn't go from 12K to 20K, it actually went down from 12,781 in 2016 to 10,491 yesterday :
 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/neighborhood/moco/news/article/High-voter-turnout-spurs-Montgomery-County-to-15647715.php

Jesus Fucking Christ.  Of course Montgomery would fuck that up.

Now I'm feeling really quite a lot better about the world.  Montgomery not turning out makes me very, very happy.

39 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ha. So LL gets all worried- we have 2 pages of rampant speculation and then find out it's a data/reporting/coding error.  Sounds about right. 

I'm a litigator.  My entire job is to worry on behalf of my clients.  And I have the grey hair and ulcers to prove it.

[mchookem 16222]

46 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

um, i mean, i didn't even make it past your first sentence. are you fucking crazy? are you paying attention at all?

if you have data for your contention, i'd like to see it. i feel like we'll see a much higher african american voter bloc in 2020.

anecdotal... but my inlaws are all AA, mostly in PA/OH, it's a large family, and they (and most of their friends i can observe on social media) are all promising black turnout higher than 2008 😮 that would be incredible. 

Edited October 14, 2020 by mchookem
clarity

[Huckleberry 32703]

12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Good point. I guess since early voting started on a Tuesday this year I wasn't even thinking about Sunday being the issue. 

Oh yeah, it usually starts on Monday. So Sunday it is, which make more intuitive sense.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

5 minutes ago, mchookem said:

anecdotal... but my inlaws are all AA, mostly in PA/OH, it's a large family, and they (and most of their friends i can observe on social media) are all promising black turnout higher than 2008 😮 that would be incredible. 

I don't believe them. I mean, I believe you say that, and I believe they believe that, but I don't believe the turnout will actually be that high.  It's hard to imagine.  My family all think Trumps going to win in a landslide. It means I'm going to make $100 and dinner out of the bets with various different people, but yeah- they absolutely believe it. We see what we are around and expect to see and want to see. We will see for sure pretty quickly. 

[Pancho 44486]

9 minutes ago, mchookem said:

anecdotal... but my inlaws are all AA, mostly in PA/OH, it's a large family, and they (and most of their friends i can observe on social media) are all promising black turnout higher than 2008 😮 that would be incredible. 

Even Roland Martin is thinking this as well. 

I think so too because of the events of the summer and because trump is openly racist, but my concern continues to be and has always been Black men.  But trust--Black women are coming in DROVES and doing this to trump and republicans:

[Ghost of LL 15492]

59 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

so- if you want to worry about Trump winning the worry is this- there is no engaged AA voting body.  Trump peels away a couple percent- he gets 10% of the total overall vote share and the total votes are the same as 2016 way behind 2008 and 2012.  There have been some polls that say he's up into the 15-25% territory with black males. And I've seen some talk that there isn't a lot of enthusiasm for AA voters with Biden and they also aren't uniquely pissed at Trump- he's just same old same old to them and not a big motivator to vote like he is with the white suburban women. That and there's some white suburban women who just are afraid to say they kinda like Trump.  More of those than can be believed. And their husbands are telling their wives no dear- I'm not voting for Trump but then they get in the booth and do so and lie to their suddenly woke wives about it.
And the polls somehow missed all of this. 
But yeah- that's pretty far fetched scenario and I think you are just going to see death by a thousand cuts for Trump in all those places you said for all those reasons you said.  

Let's just pause for a minute and observe two things: (1) Unlike with the white population, Black men are not 50% (or 49%) of Black registered voters largely due to our system of mass incarceration rendering a large number of Black men ineligible to vote, and (2) turnout among Black men is significantly lower than turnout among Black women, even under the best of circumstances.

So when you say Trump could get 15-25% of the vote among Black men, you're not saying that it is 15-25% among all Black people.  There is going to be a huge gender gap.  And if Trump only gets 5% of Black women (entirely plausible), that doesn't mean that his total among all Black people is going to be 10-15%.  It is going to be a whole lot lower than that owing to much higher participation by Black women.

Realistically, Trump is going to be very lucky to break double-digits with Blacks.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Let's just pause for a minute and observe two things: (1) Unlike with the white population, Black men are not 50% (or 49%) of Black registered voters largely due to our system of mass incarceration rendering a large number of Black men ineligible to vote, and (2) turnout among Black men is significantly lower than turnout among Black women, even under the best of circumstances.

So when you say Trump could get 15-25% of the vote among Black men, you're not saying that it is 15-25% among all Black people.  There is going to be a huge gender gap.  And if Trump only gets 5% of Black women (entirely plausible), that doesn't mean that his total among all Black people is going to be 10-15%.  It is going to be a whole lot lower than that owing to much higher participation by Black women.

Realistically, Trump is going to be very lucky to break double-digits with Blacks.

Oh I agree no doubt and know that. For him to break double digits it has to be 5% with black women and 20% mainly with black men?  
I don’t think that happens, obviously, but if he’s gonna win that’s what would have to happen. 

Edited October 14, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[LCHorn 2585]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Montgomery County is nothing but stupid rednecks, oil and gas people, and used car/jetski salesmen with a permanent Oakley tan. It is the embodiment of Boaters for Trump and is tied with Williamson for the worst County in Texas. 

As someone who grew up in Liberty County, I always considered Montgomery County residents to be high-fallutin rich folk. 

[mchookem 16222]

15 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Even Roland Martin is thinking this as well. 

I think so too because of the events of the summer and because trump is openly racist, but my concern continues to be and has always been Black men.  But trust--Black women are coming in DROVES and doing this to trump and republicans:

ha! funny you say that...the family im referencing are about 5:1 female to male. i have a bunch of 20-30ish year old college educated nieces and they are very vocal about it 😁

[SydneyCarton 47884]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are those folks better off than they were 4 years ago?  Is their part of the economy doing as well as Trump keeps saying?

They were poor before and they’re poor now. But they can let their freak flag fly, so yeah, they’re probably better of as far as they’re concerned. 

[gmr548 16516]

Man- I don't think there is any way Biden gets near 35% I wouldn't expect 30%  If you wanted to set the over under at 30% I would make you a bet for every percentage point high/low. 
What you said is true- but there are also some non-voters for Trump that will show up b/c it's getting tight.   If MOCO is 35% then Texas goes to Biden- probably by 3 or 4 points. I don't think that's likely.  

Yeah 35 is wack. Beto pulled 27 percent. Dems should be happy with anything north of 25 and over the moon at 30.