2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers

[gmr548 16516]

What's up with the other big counties lagging?

Harris County GOP was removed from the face of the earth in 2018. This is the first election Harris County has prioritized making voting easy. I think it's more of an ascendance than a lag from other big counties that have been Democratic controlled longer.

[gmr548 16516]

Montgomery County is nothing but stupid rednecks, oil and gas people, and used car/jetski salesmen with a permanent Oakley tan. It is the embodiment of Boaters for Trump and is tied with Williamson for the worst County in Texas. 

I mean Williamson County sucks but lumping it in with Montgomery seems like a little much.

[Dnaguy 11777]

Took ~30-40 minutes to vote in FB county Meadows Place polling place. 
Printing the card / getting everyone checked on seems to be the bottleneck. Actual voting booths were only half occupied at any given time.

Dont want to be ageist.... but the olds and new tech do not mix.

Could have been worse, though.

God it felt good to vote against that Cheeto dust covered bigot idiot motherfucker.

[Hank Scorpio 17723]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

2 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Montgomery County is nothing but stupid rednecks, oil and gas people, and used car/jetski salesmen with a permanent Oakley tan. It is the embodiment of Boaters for Trump and is tied with Williamson for the worst County in Texas. 

I mean Williamson County sucks but lumping it in with Montgomery seems like a little much.

The Williamson County DA/Sheriff/Judges give it a big bump to pull even with Montgomery. I don’t make the rules. 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

15 minutes ago, mchookem said:

ha! funny you say that...the family im referencing are about 5:1 female to male. i have a bunch of 20-30ish year old college educated nieces and they are very vocal about it 😁

I was going to ask you about that and that dovetails with what I was saying about my family and co-workers and other people unknown on the Trump gonna win side...

all the pew research stuff I’ve seen shows AA’s to be basically split 1/3 in each ideological bucket between liberal, moderate and conservative. I wonder if the fervor to vote is as high for a self identified conservative AA is as high as amongst the people in your family?  Just sit it out. Lower propensity to vote?  More likely to vote against Trump than a guy like Romney?  

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

21 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Man- I don't think there is any way Biden gets near 35% I wouldn't expect 30%  If you wanted to set the over under at 30% I would make you a bet for every percentage point high/low. 
What you said is true- but there are also some non-voters for Trump that will show up b/c it's getting tight.   If MOCO is 35% then Texas goes to Biden- probably by 3 or 4 points. I don't think that's likely.  

Read more  

Yeah 35 is wack. Beto pulled 27 percent. Dems should be happy with anything north of 25 and over the moon at 30.

That’s my read on it as well. I’d definitely bet the under on 30% pretty confidently. I’d bet the house under at 35% 

[thepop 4409]

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-early-voting-numbers/

[MissingInAction 24824]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

3 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Montgomery County is nothing but stupid rednecks, oil and gas people, and used car/jetski salesmen with a permanent Oakley tan. It is the embodiment of Boaters for Trump and is tied with Williamson for the worst County in Texas. 

I mean Williamson County sucks but lumping it in with Montgomery seems like a little much.

Beto won Wilco. That county's demographic has changed a lot in the past 5 years. Lots of educated professionals who cant afford Austin's bullshit real estate market have been relocating there as property taxes soar.

Also fitlump so it's a wash.

Edited October 15, 2020 by MissingInAction

[Ghost of LL 15492]

 

[Larry T. Spider 1741]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

That’s awesome. Anybody have similar stats for other major counties?

[JimmyJames 12271]

5 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Austin also has a lot of the Surlyhorns type of folks who are equal parts lazy and smart enough to know that your vote counts whether you wait 10 minutes or 10 hours. We'll just watch the wait times and pick our spot when to go, especially with all of the techies working from home.

 

All the talk talk about Montgomery and Harris County is interesting. What about Hays county which despite the smaller number is up 30% over 2016. It was a 0.9% Trump win with Gary Johnson getting more than 5% of the vote last time. Wonder what to read into that.

Yep. I voted on the first day not because it made any rational sense. I knew I had three weeks to vote early and could have easily done so on many of those days with little wait.

I voted early on the first day because my hatred of Trump and what his ignorant followers is so strong that I would never forgive myself if I didn’t immediately do whatever I could as soon as possible to put a stop to it. They are seeking to unwittingly turn this country into a shithole likes Russia. Fuck them.

Vote early.

[Hank Kingsley 20707]

 

[gmr548 16516]

No wonder Abbott and the GOP have been picking fights with Harris County in the run up to the election.

[Ted Lange 16052]

 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Dallas

Tarrant

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/tarrant-nov-03-2020/index.html

Bexar

https://www.bexar.org/3193/Unofficial-Branch-Daily-RegisterEarly-Vo

Travis

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/travis-nov-03-2020/index.html

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Cornyn must not like seeing these early vote counts. He’s probably hoping this is everyone coming out of the gate hot but will calm down soon.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

https://www.votedenton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/10-14_ev_by_day_poll-pad.pdf

69K over the first two days 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

https://www.votedenton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/10-14_ev_by_day_poll-pad.pdf

69K over the first two days 

Nice

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Beto won Wilco. That county's demographic has changed a lot in the past 5 years. Lots of educated professionals who cant afford Austin's bullshit real estate market have been relocating there as property taxes soar.

Also fitlump so it's a wash.

Also, MJ Hegar won Wilco, but lost the Bell county part of the district when she ran for TX 31 in 2018. 2/3 State Reps in Wilco are Dems, and there are a few JPs and district court judges. There's a very good chance Gleason defeats Choady this cycle. I'm even seeing Gleason signs in otherwise republican yards. 

It's probably going to take a while for the county apparatus to flip as I imagine it takes a while to build a bench for those type races, but someone like @Bozo_Casanova would know better than I. 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Posted where you can track top 5 above, Counties 6-10 links if you need your F5 fix

Collin 

https://www.collincountytx.gov/elections/election_information/rosters/Pages/default.aspx

Denton

https://www.votedenton.com/early-voting-roster/

El Paso

https://epcountyvotes.com/quick_links/current_election

Fort Bend

https://www.fortbendcountytx.gov/government/departments-e-n/elections-voter-registration/city-school-mud-early-voting-statistics

Hidalgo

 

[atomheartbevo 89448]

 

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

No wonder Abbott and the GOP have been picking fights with Harris County in the run up to the election.

That may have turned out to be a costly strategy.  Abbott/GOP picking fights with the big cities over covid, drop off boxes, etc., just pissed people off even more.  

[atomheartbevo 89448]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

There's a very good chance Gleason defeats Choady this cycle. I'm even seeing Gleason signs in otherwise republican yards. 

I’ve seen some wondering whether Choady’s management of the sheriff’s dept, is going to cost the county millions in payouts over lawsuits.  

[Planet Houston 4923]

3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

I’ve never been so excited to cast a vote and be a statistic. Today was a great day. 

[RayDog 682]

I noticed that the largest 11 counties went from 8.5 million registered voters in 2016 to just over 10 million in 2020, so that is where most of the 1.8 million new registered voters are located. Those 11 counties went 59/40 for Beto over Cruz.

So if there are 11 million votes, for 65% of registered voters, and 60% come from those 11 counties and give Biden a 20 point advantage that is 1,320,000 votes. That is enough to overcome the 800-900K advantage Republicans have in the Rural counties with some extra in case they still lag in the current or former;y Republican leaning counties in between which Beto lost by 300K.

I actually expect Biden to do better than 60/40 in those 11 counties and I expect those counties will exceed 60% of the total votes given they have over a million votes already. If those 11 counties top 5 million early and absentee votes, I feel confident that Biden will win.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

1 hour ago, RayDog said:

I noticed that the largest 11 counties went from 8.5 million registered voters in 2016 to just over 10 million in 2020, so that is where most of the 1.8 million new registered voters are located. Those 11 counties went 59/40 for Beto over Cruz.

So if there are 11 million votes, for 65% of registered voters, and 60% come from those 11 counties and give Biden a 20 point advantage that is 1,320,000 votes. That is enough to overcome the 800-900K advantage Republicans have in the Rural counties with some extra in case they still lag in the current or former;y Republican leaning counties in between which Beto lost by 300K.

I actually expect Biden to do better than 60/40 in those 11 counties and I expect those counties will exceed 60% of the total votes given they have over a million votes already. If those 11 counties top 5 million early and absentee votes, I feel confident that Biden will win.

Holy shit you’re alive?!?!?

[Zonahorn 8079]

Oh shit, Raydog is back to tell us Democrats are gonna win Texas

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Just now, Calihorn said:

Oh shit, Raydog is back to tell us Democrats are gonna win Texas

I can’t follow all of that math before coffee but he makes me believe it.

[South Austin 52144]

12 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

The Williamson County DA/Sheriff/Judges give it a big bump to pull even with Montgomery. I don’t make the rules. 

Who are the Montgomery County equivalents of Michael Morton and Greg Kelly?

[South Austin 52144]

2 hours ago, RayDog said:

I noticed that the largest 11 counties went from 8.5 million registered voters in 2016 to just over 10 million in 2020, so that is where most of the 1.8 million new registered voters are located. Those 11 counties went 59/40 for Beto over Cruz.

So if there are 11 million votes, for 65% of registered voters, and 60% come from those 11 counties and give Biden a 20 point advantage that is 1,320,000 votes. That is enough to overcome the 800-900K advantage Republicans have in the Rural counties with some extra in case they still lag in the current or former;y Republican leaning counties in between which Beto lost by 300K.

I actually expect Biden to do better than 60/40 in those 11 counties and I expect those counties will exceed 60% of the total votes given they have over a million votes already. If those 11 counties top 5 million early and absentee votes, I feel confident that Biden will win.

[gmr548 16516]

Oh shit, Raydog is back to tell us Democrats are gonna win Texas

I can’t follow all of that math before coffee but he makes me believe it.

Death, taxes, and raydog using insane assumptions on turnout to project a democratic win.

 

Per SOS, 53 percent of registered voters voted in 2018, 59 in 2008, -12, and -16. Last presidential election with 65 percent (or even 60 for that matter) of registered voters showing up in Texas was 1992, with just 8mm registered.

 

Raw turnout increased by about 1mm from 2012 to 16, flat from 08 to 12, 600k from 04 to 08, 1mm from 2000 to 04, 800k from 96 to 2000...

 

There were 8.9mm voters in 2016. So, yes if we get an increase of 2.1mm voters, which would be not just unprecedented in contemporary Texas in terms of turnout of registered voters, but would just be an absolute explosion of the size of the electorate so far beyond the likes of which we've ever seen that I can't really think of a superlative to describe it... sure, Texas is in play.

 

I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

 

[MissingInAction 24824]

 

inspirational.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Death, taxes, and raydog using insane assumptions on turnout to project a democratic win.

Per SOS, 53 percent of registered voters voted in 2018, 59 in 2008, -12, and -16. Last presidential election with 65 percent (or even 60 for that matter) of registered voters showing up in Texas was 1992, with just 8mm registered.

Raw turnout increased by about 1mm from 2012 to 16, flat from 08 to 12, 600k from 04 to 08, 1mm from 2000 to 04, 800k from 96 to 2000...

There were 8.9mm voters in 2016. So, yes if we get an increase of 2.1mm voters, whivh would be not just unprecedented in terms of turnout of registered voters but would just be an absolute explosion of the size of the electorate the likes of which we've never seen... sure, Texas is in play.

I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

Agree. It’s also impossible to fully read into early voting numbers. At least until the race is over.

purely anecdotal but my mom was close to a gop straight voter for decades. She’s straight Democrat this year. Maybe she is an outlier but no one knows how many voters like her exist. Vote estimations would consider her a reliable red vote. It’s a double hit for the gop when not only doesn’t a reliable voter turn out for them, they go the opposite.

edit: 11% of Harris county RV has voted. In two days. That pace can’t continue but where will it be a week from now? 30% with early voting not done?

Edited October 15, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Pancho 44486]

Nawf Carolina

 

[Aqua Buddha 14521]

3 hours ago, RayDog said:

I noticed that the largest 11 counties went from 8.5 million registered voters in 2016 to just over 10 million in 2020, so that is where most of the 1.8 million new registered voters are located. Those 11 counties went 59/40 for Beto over Cruz.

So if there are 11 million votes, for 65% of registered voters, and 60% come from those 11 counties and give Biden a 20 point advantage that is 1,320,000 votes. That is enough to overcome the 800-900K advantage Republicans have in the Rural counties with some extra in case they still lag in the current or former;y Republican leaning counties in between which Beto lost by 300K.

I actually expect Biden to do better than 60/40 in those 11 counties and I expect those counties will exceed 60% of the total votes given they have over a million votes already. If those 11 counties top 5 million early and absentee votes, I feel confident that Biden will win.

This.

If you look at the last 3 competitive statewides, the Republicans have a definite ceiling.  (2012, 2016, and 2018.)

2012:

Mitt:  4.5M

Obama: 3.3M

2016:

Trump: 4.6M

Hillary:  3.8M

2018:

Cruz:  4.2M

Beto: 4.05M

The Republicans have a definite ceiling of 4.5M.  Sure, they're getting some of the move ins but it seems they're losing an equal number due to them dying off or something. The vast majority of the move ins are in six counties and those counties tilted heavily toward Beto, especially if some suburban women peel off in Dallas and Houston.  When you take away the pre conceived notions of Texas and look at the math, it's very doable.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

IMO those long lines amount to walking a mile to vote, will disproportionately dissuade fatasses from voting. Advantage D.  

[MissingInAction 24824]

Delete 

Edited October 15, 2020 by MissingInAction

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

33 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This.

If you look at the last 3 competitive statewides, the Republicans have a definite ceiling.  (2012, 2016, and 2018.)

2012:

Mitt:  4.5M

Obama: 3.3M

2016:

Trump: 4.6M

Hillary:  3.8M

2018:

Cruz:  4.2M

Beto: 4.05M

The Republicans have a definite ceiling of 4.5M.  Sure, they're getting some of the move ins but it seems they're losing an equal number due to them dying off or something. The vast majority of the move ins are in six counties and those counties tilted heavily toward Beto, especially if some suburban women peel off in Dallas and Houston.  When you take away the pre conceived notions of Texas and look at the math, it's very doable.

With voter enthusiasm on both sides and your analysis, one could assume that the Dems have a shot at Texas with a 9.5m turnout, a decent chance with 10m, and perhaps a strong likelihood of a win at 10.5m. These are turnouts of 56%, 59% and 62% based on reported 16.9m registered voters.

RV turnout

2016: 59.3%

2012: 58.6

2008:  59.5

2004: 56.6

2000: 51.8 

I don't see how we don't top 10m voters.  

As a disclaimer, I do think that marginal voter registrations are less likely to vote compared to established registrations. If someone fills out an voter reg application because Kylie Jenner told them to, they are less likely to vote than someone who hasn't missed an election since '72. So while we should see a large increase in votes, it doesn't mean RV turnout will see much of an % increase from 2016.  But who knows. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[gmr548 16516]

With voter enthusiasm on both sides and your analysis, one could assume that the Dems have a shot at Texas with a 9.5m turnout, a decent chance with 10m, and perhaps a strong likelihood of a win at 10.5m. These are turnouts of 56%, 59% and 62% based on reported 16.9m registered voters.
RV turnout
2016: 59.3%
2012: 58.6
2008:  59.5
2004: 56.6
2000: 51.8 
I don't see how we don't top 10m voters.  
As a disclaimer, I do think that marginal voter registrations are less likely to vote compared to established registrations. If someone fills out an voter reg application because Kylie Jenner told them to, they are less likely to vote than someone who hasn't missed an election since '72. So while we should see a large increase in votes, it doesn't mean RV turnout will see much of an % increase from 2016.  But who knows. 

10 million feels about right, give or take 250k.

[Bruh Man 3160]

 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

11 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Also, MJ Hegar won Wilco, but lost the Bell county part of the district when she ran for TX 31 in 2018. 2/3 State Reps in Wilco are Dems, and there are a few JPs and district court judges. There's a very good chance Gleason defeats Choady this cycle. I'm even seeing Gleason signs in otherwise republican yards. 

It's probably going to take a while for the county apparatus to flip as I imagine it takes a while to build a bench for those type races, but someone like @Bozo_Casanova would know better than I. 

The fun thing is when a party wins a clean sweep in a county for the first time.  It's usually unexpected, and there usually is no bench.  So nobody is hurrying up to run for county offices and you'll get some really interesting officeholders.

Case in point was Dallas County in 2006.  Jim Foster was something of a political gadfly.  He went into the Dallas County Democratic Party headquarters at the filing deadline and asked, "What is the highest office that nobody's running for?".  County judge.  Sure--so Jim ran unopposed in the primary and got the Democratic nomination.

Dallas County had been Republican forever.  But when the 2006 wave hit, the Republicans got wiped out.  And Jim Foster, of all damned people, became county judge.  And wild thing--he actually did a decent job.  Four years later, he was challenged in the primary and lost to Clay Jenkins, which reflects that once the party gains power it attracts higher-quality, more establishment candidates.  But that first time can be wild.

Some are really successful.  I would argue that Lina Hidalgo in Harris County kind of falls in this paradigm.  Some aren't great--Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez falls into this category.  But it's kind of exciting to see people elected who wouldn't sniff the nomination of a more established party.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

I was playing around with scenarios. Assuming 10m votes in Texas, the net new voters would need to go about 90-10 blue for Biden to win, based on 2016 voting. Excel technically showed it as 89-9. I gave 2% to Other. This seems like an unrealistic target for Biden to take that much of the new vote.

IF 5% (140K) of Trump 2016 voters switched to Biden, Biden then only needs to take 65% of the net new voters. That seems within the realm of possibility. It’s a high mark but possible.

It’s an unknown whether Trump has lost support from his 2016 voters. Conventional wisdom would say that more Trump voters would flip to Biden then Hillary voters flipping to Trump. 
 

[Hank Kingsley 20707]

14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It’s an unknown whether Trump has lost support from his 2016 voters. Conventional wisdom would say that more Trump voters would flip to Biden then Hillary voters flipping to Trump. 
 

This is the key. If enough of these small counties that went 80/20 to Trump in '16 get lowered to 70/30 or 65/35, that could be a game changer. I don't think it's an unreasonable scenario. 

 

Also, over 400k Texans voted third party in 2016. I expect that number to be much smaller this year. 

 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Hank Kingsley

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

On researching numbers, I used the Texas SoS election page. For many of the counties, they tell you exactly who has already voted this year.  By name. You can see that John Smith of whatever county voted in person or by mail this week.

I realize they don't tell you the details of the vote but this is incredible information for them to disclose. This would ultimately allow campaigns to continually narrow their focus on people that haven't voted yet. They can keep analyzing the numbers daily to find high probability voters that haven't engaged yet. Then act on it even to the point of knocking on their door to understand what's up.

[Aqua Buddha 14521]

22 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I was playing around with scenarios. Assuming 10m votes in Texas, the net new voters would need to go about 90-10 blue for Biden to win, based on 2016 voting. Excel technically showed it as 89-9. I gave 2% to Other. This seems like an unrealistic target for Biden to take that much of the new vote.

IF 5% (140K) of Trump 2016 voters switched to Biden, Biden then only needs to take 65% of the net new voters. That seems within the realm of possibility. It’s a high mark but possible.

It’s an unknown whether Trump has lost support from his 2016 voters. Conventional wisdom would say that more Trump voters would flip to Biden then Hillary voters flipping to Trump. 
 

I would say there were a decent amount of Trump voters who went Beto in 18.

[Huckleberry 32703]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

On researching numbers, I used the Texas SoS election page. For many of the counties, they tell you exactly who has already voted this year.  By name. You can see that John Smith of whatever county voted in person or by mail this week.

I realize they don't tell you the details of the vote but this is incredible information for them to disclose. This would ultimately allow campaigns to continually narrow their focus on people that haven't voted yet. They can keep analyzing the numbers daily to find high probability voters that haven't engaged yet. Then act on it even to the point of knocking on their door to understand what's up.

That's always been disclosed. Whether or not you voted is a matter of public record. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That's always been disclosed. Whether or not you voted is a matter of public record. 

I didn't realize it was disclosed on the website during the voting process.

[TwiceHorn 31283]

I intend to vote early.  

I decided to wait until today, Thursday, to make an attempt to let the novelty wear off.

In the meantime, I scouted the usual polling location a couple of times while out and about.  Pretty crowded.

Well, today, Thursday at 10AM, I decided it was too crowded (more than 50, probably 100) and rain appears likely.

This is Dallas County, so I can vote anywhere, but I am using my usual polling location, near Northpark.

Any ideas for beating crowds?  Currently I am thinking next week maybe they'll die down.

Looks like pretty good turnout for early voting at least.

[Dahobbs 17447]

4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I intend to vote early.  

I decided to wait until today, Thursday, to make an attempt to let the novelty wear off.

In the meantime, I scouted the usual polling location a couple of times while out and about.  Pretty crowded.

Well, today, Thursday at 10AM, I decided it was too crowded (more than 50, probably 100) and rain appears likely.

This is Dallas County, so I can vote anywhere, but I am using my usual polling location, near Northpark.

Any ideas for beating crowds?  Currently I am thinking next week maybe they'll die down.

Looks like pretty good turnout for early voting at least.

Apparently Sunday based on historical numbers would be the least crowded day to vote. 

[Bookman 4610]

Get up early on Saturday. 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Sunday during church hours would be my guess, if the locations are open that early.  Otherwise the dip may just be from fewer hours available if they open late on sundays. Or maybe during the cowboys game