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Surly Official 2020 Electoral Map Predictions

Hank Kingsley

By Hank Kingsley
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

Posted
Posted (edited)

Reserve the right to change as we go on. The two states I'm having the hardest time with are North Carolina and Wisconsin. 

 

ETA - interesting that we have almost the exact same electoral numbers but totally different paths.

map.JPG

Edited by BradInATX
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11,683

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Posted (edited)

 

46 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Alright, let's do this. Create your map. Make them all dark blue/red (aka "safe") colors. Go to https://www.270towin.com/  Once completed, go to embed your map and copy/paste the URL on to here. 

 

Here's mine. 

 

 

 

jQ22A

 

Not that it makes a difference, but what"s leading you to MT being blue?  Tester?

Edited by Incredulity
clean up text
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ztejas

ztejas 43,532

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Fuck, that was a mistake. MT is red. 


Corrected map. 

Qp0gK

Same as me but flip Iowa and Florida. (Oh and then ND and MO and KS)

And are we doing split states? I think you should have to go red or blue.

Edited by ztejas
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

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Posted
Just now, Calihorn said:

Way too many people are putting their faith in Florida.

Florida polls are really good. The RCP average was exactly dead on in 2016 to actual results. It's a huge state with lots of polling and lots of olds that don't know how to not answer spam/poller calls. Biden has been consistently up 2-4% there for the last 4-5 months straight. He has never trailed. It was a statistical dead heat last time and you've got a candidate that plays much better with moderate olds (because he is one) plus the Covid thing. A 2-3% Biden win in Florida _should_ be one of the safest bets on the map. If he doesn't win, they cheated.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Way too many people are putting their faith in Florida.

This is the first Florida cycle in forever that republicans are losing the vote by mail battle to democrats. If in person early voting holds up, we would go into the 4th quarter ( Election Day) with a lead. I seem to recall Clinton had a 100K vote lead going into Election Day in 2016. I’d expect or hope Biden’s to be bigger and put a lot of pressure on Florida trumpkins to turnout 300-500K on the last day.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,194

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4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

pGl6y

this is what we like to call the "lawsuit map".

simply defined, any map that has one state, specifically pennsylvania, swinging the election by itself will be a troublemaker.  that's why trump mentions philly in almost all his tales of fraud.

the normal electoral map requires 270.  this year, the number is 290.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8,079

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4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Florida polls are really good. The RCP average was exactly dead on in 2016 to actual results. It's a huge state with lots of polling and lots of olds that don't know how to not answer spam/poller calls. Biden has been consistently up 2-4% there for the last 4-5 months straight. He has never trailed. It was a statistical dead heat last time and you've got a candidate that plays much better with moderate olds (because he is one) plus the Covid thing. A 2-3% Biden win in Florida _should_ be one of the safest bets on the map. If he doesn't win, they cheated.

I got burned in 2018, I ain't trusting shit

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

this is what we like to call the "lawsuit map".

simply defined, any map that has one state, specifically pennsylvania, swinging the election by itself will be a troublemaker.  that's why trump mentions philly in almost all his tales of fraud.

the normal electoral map requires 270.  this year, the number is 290.

You’re right need to win Arizona + any other state as an insurance policy.  I really got my hopes up for Arizona this year.

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ztejas

ztejas 43,532

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11 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Way too many people are putting their faith in Florida.

I'm predicting we see minorities turn out in record numbers, which is why I think Biden takes Fla and GA.

But minority or not people in Florida are fucking crazy, especially the Cubans, and there's no guarantee they'd swing it in Biden's favor.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8,079

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1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

You’re right need to win Arizona + any other state as an insurance policy.  I really got my hopes up for Arizona this year.

Biden and Kelly are going to win. It will take a couple weeks to fully count, but he will win.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I'm predicting we see minorities turn out in record numbers,

If we see that, we could be looking at a historic landslide. Because the polls use typical "likely voter" models and even those are showing Biden with ~330 EVs without accounting for any increased turnout.

Honestly, I'm not reading much in to these early voting lines or numbers. I think it could be a bit of a false flag in that it's just that more people are so anxious to vote they felt the need to do it super early this time. Basically that enthusiasm among existing voters is even higher than 2016, not that we're necessarily creating a lot of new voters. I think the enthusiasm bump to vote early is on both teams, too. But I'm a cynic.

If we saw a significant increase in minority turnout we could end up with someone awesome like this:

 

map2.JPG

Edited by BradInATX
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,627

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Posted (edited)

spacer.png

Here are my specific calls for each close state:

SC Trump +4

AK Trump +4

AZ Trump +3

TX Trump +3

IA Trump +2

GA Trump +2

FL Trump +2

OH Biden +2

NC Biden +3

WI Biden +4

PA Biden +5

MI Biden +5

NV Biden +5

No other states will be within 5 points.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

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Just now, ztejas said:

Oh, y'all are discounting cheating? Let me go redo my map then. 

The cheating is baked in to the polling already. Florida polls are good. The poll aggregators projected Trump to win by 1% and he did. They've been accurate historically in POTUS elections. Florida isn't throwing out votes, they cheat to influence whose votes count, which is also already baked-in to the likely-voter modeling. 

So yeah they cheat but that's accounted for. They would have to cheat at an unprecedented level. Do things like actually throw votes out, etc. Not that they're above it but I'm avoiding full doom and gloom for now.

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Saint Tacky

Saint Tacky 1,621

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<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/2Wg74"><img src="https://www.270towin.com/map-images/2Wg74.png" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="https://www.270towin.com/uploads/3rd_party_270_30px.png" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/2Wg74">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

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ztejas

ztejas 43,532

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5 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/2Wg74"><img src="https://www.270towin.com/map-images/2Wg74.png" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="https://www.270towin.com/uploads/3rd_party_270_30px.png" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/2Wg74">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

That's the spirit

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8,854

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Posted

jQ27E

I confess that 2020 has totally given me PTSD and I don't trust anything. Everything I read tells me it's going to be a blowout, but I can't go there, because 2020. I would love to be completely wrong, and Biden wins in a cakewalk, but I'll take whatever win we can get. 

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2,728

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mo Horn said:

jQ27E

I confess that 2020 has totally given me PTSD and I don't trust anything. Everything I read tells me it's going to be a blowout, but I can't go there, because 2020. I would love to be completely wrong, and Biden wins in a cakewalk, but I'll take whatever win we can get. 

this result would be a disaster for the country.  Too close.  It needs to be a whipping otherwise it is going to be a shit show although on brand for 2020

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8,854

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Posted
1 minute ago, babysdaddy said:

this result would be a disaster for the country.  Too close.  It needs to be a whipping otherwise it is going to be a shit show although on brand for 2020

I 100% agree, and please let me be wrong and be negged hundreds of times. 

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