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Surly Official 2020 Electoral Map Predictions

Hank Kingsley

By Hank Kingsley
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JBJ

JBJ 3649

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 10/15/2020 at 10:34 AM, JBJ said:

xmZwL.png

This is roughly a Biden +7 map.  I have no idea if that's accurate. 

The tipping point seems to be Biden +4.

p1AZd.png

Post-debates version.  Roughly Biden +4.5

Roughly matches Yolado.

Edited by JBJ
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TexEx15

TexEx15 17486

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Posted
On 10/26/2020 at 11:57 AM, TexasEd said:

 

ZdxyV.png

 

This seems possible if not probable.  Also side note it would be 1 more electoral vote than Trump in 2016.  Sweet irony considering the way he acted like he beat Clinton in the largest blowout you ever saw.

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CO Horn

CO Horn 154

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19 hours ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

My best guess (and hope).  I will continue to believe FL, IA, GA, TX and OH are red until proven otherwise. Putting all my eggs in the North Carolina + Arizona basket to get an election night call and avoid waiting days for WI and PA.  

 

PRm80

 

 

This is almost the same as mine, but I'm giving Trump NC and Biden GA

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19331

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6 hours ago, softlynow said:

Florida gonna Florida. I think Texas will be within a point, but still hold for team grifter. Georgia, though, follows the coastal South path that Virginia blazed and NC has followed.

p1Azy.png

I was about to go do one of these maps, but I see you've already done the work for me. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)

Changing mine up a little bit, because new shit has come to light. Built a quick and dirty model this morning based on a few things:

- Undecideds breaking similarly to 2016, but with a slight bump towards Biden. Basically "what if the undecideds break the same way as 2016, but not as extremely". Accounting for the pollsters getting it just slightly better than 2016.
- Turnout and partisan shift (IE Texas shifting left, OH shifting right)
- The overall national averages (used 538) and how those trickle down to the individual states.

Came up with this:

bystate.JPG.fc3ca2f0f23ace9764b023e7b31beee6.JPG

 

 

Which looks like this:

270towin-final.JPG.815510b6346080cb10d48faa06101feb.JPG

 

FWIW, I am not at all confident in GA, NC, FL, or TX. The election swinging ever-so-slightly one way or the other could flip all four of these to one color or the other. 

But I'd be plenty happy with this map, and I believe if Biden gets this, it will be well beyond the reach any Trump shenanigans.

 

Edited by BradInATX
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted
1 minute ago, bolverk said:

On the first page, I had Ohio and Iowa going with Biden a couple of weeks ago but now I'm less confident. This is probably where I'm at right now.

Three of us on that 351 map. Bunch of Texans stopping just short of Texas flipping. 

What's kinda terrifying is that the difference between the 351 map and the 276 map that HRSchenker posted a few posts ago is about 2 percentage points. But I guess it's a percentage point or two from Texas, which would be a complete wipeout.

Shit cray.

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bolverk

bolverk 29399

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Posted
28 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Three of us on that 351 map. Bunch of Texans stopping just short of Texas flipping. 

What's kinda terrifying is that the difference between the 351 map and the 276 map that HRSchenker posted a few posts ago is about 2 percentage points. But I guess it's a percentage point or two from Texas, which would be a complete wipeout.

Shit cray.

Our maps are the same as what 538 has on the Tipping Point scale for their forecast. Below are the 10 separate races for Electoral Votes that are within a 5 point margin and could (maybe) generously be considered absolute coin flips. If the below is reasonably accurate, Trump would essentially have to win 10 coin tosses in a row to have enough in the Electoral College.

That's asking a lot. I suspect that there will likely be some that diverge from these chances but, given what we know, the maps we've got seem to be the most likely (at least by my judgment).

tipping.jpg

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Our maps are the same as what 538 has on the Tipping Point scale for their forecast. Below are the 10 separate races for Electoral Votes that are within a 5 point margin and could (maybe) generously be considered absolute coin flips. If the below is reasonably accurate, Trump would essentially have to win 10 coin tosses in a row to have enough in the Electoral College.

That's asking a lot. I suspect that there will likely be some that diverge from these chances but, given what we know, the maps we've got seem to be the most likely (at least by my judgment).

tipping.jpg

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

 

That's interesting. I had seen their snake chart which is cool, but not broken down to that detail. Thanks for posting that.

I've got them in a bit different order than 538 does. If I could find a prop bet on PredictIt to fit, I would put a significant amount of money on Texas being more blue than Ohio this time around. Or if that bitch ass @Caddox would take my bet (the one he offered to anyone), I could just get it down that way.


I also don't see Iowa being that close. We'll see how she goes.

Edited by BradInATX
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Three of us on that 351 map. Bunch of Texans stopping just short of Texas flipping. 

What's kinda terrifying is that the difference between the 351 map and the 276 map that HRSchenker posted a few posts ago is about 2 percentage points. But I guess it's a percentage point or two from Texas, which would be a complete wipeout.

Shit cray.

351 is the correct map. Anyone with any other number is wrong.  And stupid.  And should be pointed at and ridiculed and have to wear an ag tag for all eternity.  Not 352. Not 340.  351. Now and forever. I suppose I'd also accept 306 or 413.  But only those 3 numbers.  That's my final answer. 351. With 413 as my answer #2 and 306 as my answer number 3.  

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immamac

immamac 42519

Posted
Posted

image.thumb.png.eadd91ef6496561d5689947ed3728def.pngplaying with the simulator. This one scares the shit out of me.

If Georgia wins when the polls close the election is over, Trump loses. Haven't had a single time where GA has been blue and the electorate doesn't work out for Biden. NC and GA is game over. We should know before polls close in TX even, but TX would be a nice dagger.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, immamac said:

image.thumb.png.eadd91ef6496561d5689947ed3728def.pngplaying with the simulator. This one scares the shit out of me.

If Georgia wins when the polls close the election is over, Trump loses. Haven't had a single time where GA has been blue and the electorate doesn't work out for Biden. NC and GA is game over. We should know before polls close in TX even, but TX would be a nice dagger.

NH?  Nah man- no way. 

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yoladu

yoladu 4067

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, immamac said:

image.thumb.png.eadd91ef6496561d5689947ed3728def.pngplaying with the simulator. This one scares the shit out of me.

If Georgia wins when the polls close the election is over, Trump loses. Haven't had a single time where GA has been blue and the electorate doesn't work out for Biden. NC and GA is game over. We should know before polls close in TX even, but TX would be a nice dagger.

yeah, we won't know Wisconsin or PA for several days.. but if Biden wins 2 of GA, NC and AZ (which we should know on election night).... its over.

We wont need to worry about the days and days of counting in PA and WI.

Edited by yoladu
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